Thread: First pick
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:07 PM   #53 (permalink)
Viking4Alpha's Avatar
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Dragonzord
Posts: 256

Originally Posted by HighEndHits View Post
No you don't and here's why.

Everyone is basing reaching for a QB in the first round due to last year's stats. QB points, no matter the settings, historically (with the one exception of last year) do not have a significant drop off after the first few through about the 6th or 7th QB taken. Last year was an outlier as Peyton was injured for the whole season, Rivers had an off year, Vick was banged up, and Schaub was hurt as well. From a relative value standpoint the QB position always has at least 1-2 QBs that you can take later on and still get good performance from (i.e. Stafford or Cam last year). I have never seen a team who took a QB in the first round win their league. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but it severely handicaps your team.

The historically pt differential among QBs is not there. Look at any year other than last year and you'll see. Mean reversion, it's a *****.
You apparently missed the memo on the RB situation this season. If you aren't at least a top 4-5 pick you're sol unless you'd like to reach for RD 2 heads for your first round pick.

By your logic, you're telling me you would take Chris Johnson with the 9th pick or the next tier RB instead of a Tom Brady or Drew Brees at that point for this season? Rodgers is long, long gone...
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