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Old 09-13-2012, 02:49 PM   #518 (permalink)
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Moved to Denver
Posts: 1,749

Originally Posted by Gio47 View Post
Regardless, the Cy Young predictor is hitting 65% with all the data which still means that odds say Gio will win.

Why do I get attacked and not JohnAndrew though? He just calculated the Cy Young predictor but conveniently left out wins and losses, victory bonus, and the "extra shutout point" into account. Gio just happens to lead the league in wins, has the victory bonus and threw a shutout.
I wasn't "attacking" you I was merely pointing out that you weren't following good statistical analysis.

I agree with JohnAndrew's calculations more than I do with the Predictor's. If I had a vote, I would take the predictor method and remove the VB, it means nothing to this Award that you were on a great team. That alone would put Dickey way ahead. A bonus would be added for CG, no hitters, and perfect games. Wins are an important stat so I would keep them in there but lower the bonus ((W*4) -(L*2)) or something. I think shutouts are important so they would stay. Since there is no closer award saves have to be kept in there too, although I think there should be a separate award- different topic. My formula to determine who I would vote for would be as follows.

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*3) + Shutouts + ((W*4)-(L*2)) + (CG) + (No-Nos*2) + (Peferct * 4)

Cain would get one no- no and 1 perfect game (they compound).

I haven't put numbers in here so I don't know who would actually come out on top. My guess would be Dickey since the removal of the VB doesn't hurt him. In the end, the predictor is right 65% of the time because it doesn't and can't take human element into account. The way the pitcher pitches at the end is huge and each voter has a different opinion on what matters most, just like everyone here. I wonder if they will give it to Dickey just because of his age/story, Gio is young and can compete for the award for years to come. Dickey had a late start and is likely done in 5 years (he'll be 42). The story behind the player has won many awards in this and other sports (most noticeably the Heisman) so we can see how it plays out. Any of these guys deserve it and I don't mind if any of them win it.
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