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Old 10-30-2012, 10:03 PM   #42 (permalink)
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 3,004

Originally Posted by EricInCT View Post
Well thank you. Aren't you a ray of sunshine, do I have to send you paypal for your services?
Not all, I just think you are full of sh!t. I posted this on the football forum, maybe it will help somebody here also. Good Luck.

-Bet straight....If you think a team can't cover a spread, don't tease it, just bet the other side, teasers, parlays, reverses, etc are sucker bets.

I remember when I was in college and I bet like a sucker, VT was playing BC on a Thursday night. I think the spread was 17. I "needed" the action so I was going to bet the favorite (like I always did). So I thought to myself lets open a teaser, na still laying 11. Lets open a 3 team teaser! Na still laying 7....Then it came to me if I didn't think VT would cover 11 or 7 why the hell I am not betting BC +17. I bet BC and won and learned a lesson.

-Don't chase....if you bet every week, you WILL lose some weeks. It is ok to lose, it happens. Pay your debt and move on to the next week. The Monday night get even trap is for people who don't understand how to be successful at gambling. Only bet games you like, don't bet to get even. So many people try to get even on Monday night so they don't have to pay their bookie. If you don't want to pay your bookie DON'T BET.

-Manage your money, I usually have 2 amounts, one for normal plays and one for big plays. Thats it. This kinda goes with chasing. If I lose 5 plays in a row I don't change my amounts, At some point I hope to get hot and win 5 in a row.

-Don't be afraid to bet underdogs.....It takes balls to put your money on bad teams. The house always wins right? Well who do you think the house is backing every week? UNDERDOGS. There is this theory out there, that Vegas/Bookies want 50/50 action on games and just want to collect the juice. That is completely wrong. If you think the books get 50/50 action on games you are crazy. The majority of gamblers bet favorites. Vegas sets the lines as they see fit, not to get 50/50 action. Eagles are favorites this week over Atlanta. Vegas set that line according to their system not to how people will react. Green Bay was giving 4/5 to the Rams last week, you think books had 50/50 action on that?

-Shop for lines if possible, don't settle for a crap line if you can get down somewhere else. Bears were 6/6.5 on Monday. If you bet the Bears at 6.5 for 50 and lost 55 when you could have pushed. If that happens a couple times over the course of a year it adds up.

-Try to stay away from betting just for action. I know that is hard but it is exactly what the books want. Hit your best play and lose the 3 TV games because you wanted to watch the game. I know it is hard to do but only bet games you like.

-Try to have your games picked out by Friday, have a plan. If you have your games picked out ahead of time, it is easier to stick to your plan. If you find yourself betting when the ball is on the tee you might have a problem.

-Don't listen to other gamblers, don't buy picks, don't take advice from some random dude on a forum. They know nothing that Vegas doesn't already know. Ohio St -10 over Miss....Ohio St has the best rushing attack in NCAA and Miss has the worst rushing defense in NCAA. You will hear that stat 50 times if your looking for info on the internet. IT DOESN"T MATTER...Vegas knows that stat, and it has been factored into the line.

-I don't look up stats or trends, I think they are useless. Stats are put in the make up of the line, trends---things in the past have no bearing on what will happen today. Just the way I think about things. I will get more info from asking the neighborhood loser his best bets this week. I will call the bookie and ask him who everyone is taking and then bet the opposite. I like to look at hints vegas gives when they release the lines.

Texas Tech gets killed by Oklahoma
WV beats Texas as an underdog
The next week WV is -3 to Tech, really only 3?? Geno Smith is the best player in NCAA and Tech lost by 21 to OK. How can the line be 3??

Tech beats WV by 35. Games like that are out there every week. I like to bet them. I don't always win but I think it is the right side.

-Don't let ESPN, Fox, CBS etc mess with your head. Do not pay attention to anything they say. Look at the big picture. Those media outlets only focus on what it going on right now.

Just my opinions on stuff I learned over the years. I used to be the guy that posted every play on SBR Forums or I learned by losing a lot of money. Hope this helps somebody. Good Luck! (sorry for spelling and grammer at work and rushed)

Last edited by jt16; 10-30-2012 at 10:06 PM.
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