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Old 10-31-2012, 12:28 PM   #105 (permalink)
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: ny
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Originally Posted by Gio47 View Post
I am a professional handicapper (not going to mention my website as I assume that's against the rules) and thought I'd share my play with everyone for free tonight. I was the most followed online handicapper in the NBA with 1.7 million views on my thread in 1 year on the biggest sports betting forum. I am not saying this to brag but rather so you know that I am not some degenerate who puts up squre/unthought out plays.

San Antonio Spurs -4 1st Half

I am going to be playing the San Antonio Spurs in the 1st half against the New Orleans Hornets. First off, this line in itself is very telling. The game line is -6.5 which ALWAYS equates to a 1st half line of -3.5 yet the books are bumping this up to -4. I think that's a tipping of their cap off that bat.

I am mainly playing this based on the chemistry of the two teams. The Spurs have the same exact team coming back this season except I think they will be better due to their young players growing and improving after their first full playing season. I think you will see Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green make an even bigger impact this season than they did last year. Both now have a year of starting under their belt. Tim Duncan looked great in preseason averaging 12.5ppg and shooting 55.4% from the field in 6 games. The Spurs acquired Boris Diaw late last year at the end of the season and he was a very effective player that should be even better now with a full training camp. Tony Parker is still Tony Parker. The bench with Gary Neal, Stephen Jackson, Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner is still all intact and will be very effective again with the built up chemistry. They still have the best coach in the NBA in my mind in Greg Popovich and the Spurs should be rock solid as always again. Teams like the Spurs really play well early in the season because they don't have to make any adjustments to play to 100% efficiency, they know exactly how they need to play to win games.

The New Orleans Hornets on the other hand have a completely new, young team. It will most definitely take them a while to build up the chemistry to compete with teams like the Spurs, probably more than a full season. The Hornets have a new PG in Grevis Vasquez. He honestly isn't very good and is not of starting PG caliber but the Hornets have no one else. Erc Gordon is their SG and he is a great player but he is injured tonight. He probably won't play and if he does it will be in a bench role where I don't expect him to make a big impact. They added Austin Rivers in the draft who I think will be starting at SG. He is a very streaky player and I think it will take him a while to start being efficient, think Jimmer Fredetter last season. They have a new full time starting SF in Al-Farouq Aminu, again this is another guy who has not shown me he is good enough to start in the NBA. He averaged 5ppg, 4.7 rebounds. They added Anthony Davis, #1 overall pick, as their starting PF. He is still extremely young at 19 and very raw. His offensive game needs a ton of work but he will do some good things on defense in terms of blocking shots. I think bigger guys like Duncan will have the upper hand though with him in his 1st season. They also have a new Center in Robin Lopez. I have never liked him and I know for a fact he shouldn't be starting. All in all, they will have 5 completely new starters playing together. They will have zero chemistry and most of these guys really aren't even close to starter quality. The only effective bench piece they have is Ryan Anderson, other than him I don't really see anyone who will make an impact on offense or defense. Guys like Xavier Henry, Darius Miller, Brian Roberts, Lance Thomas and Hakim Warrick are all borderline D-League players who only made the team because the Hornets are so bad to begin with. Most would have been cut on other teams.

Another factor I see in this game will be the nerves of the young Hornets. I think this team will come out very hesitant and nervous in their 1st game. For the 1st time this team actually has some sort of positive expectations and I think they will feel the pressure. This cast of Spurs players has played in a ton of big Playoffs/Finals game and a opening game in New Orleans is nothing that will rattle them. They should be much more loose than their opponent tonight.

I think the big advantage the Spurs will have will be on offense. They will be running the high pick and roll offense as usual and they will pick apart this Hornets defense that is sure to have a ton of holes tonight with all the new additions. On offense, I think the Hornets will struggle due to lack of good shooters. The Spurs bait teams into taking long shots and Rivers, Vasquez, Aminu and Lopez are far from knockdown shooters. The only guy the Spurs will have to worry about in that regard is Ryan Anderson. He is the one guy I do believe will have a good game for New Orleans but I don't really see anyone else. Tony Parker should have his way with Vasquez and Duncan should have the upperhand on Davis. Kawhi Leonard should also have a big game matched up with Aminu. I think the Spurs will probably be up by around 7-10 points.
No offense, but that whole piece is riddled with opinions, which may or may not be accurate. I thought sports handicappers focused more on statistics and probability. You may be correct in your bet, but the lakers were -8.5 last night, pretty sure 1h was -5, and they didn't cover, so your first paragraph argument is worthless. I doubt you are anything more than a fan of the game with an interest in sports that likes to give his opinion, which is fine, but a professional handicapper you are not. Sorry
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