Originally Posted by webjon
This could certainly happen if a lot of dealers are sitting on a lot of inventory that they refuse to sell at the price the market will bear.
That said I think the only real license at risk for that is Marvel as they keep churning out Marvel sketch cards . . . The print runs on many other sketch products are absurdly low. Marvel does have the largest fan base though, and also the fan base that's the most likely to grow. . .
I thought the market was saturated several years ago, but nothing seems to have changed. . .
I think the biggest risk, actually, is buyers. There are a small number of buyers that pay a ton of money for certain sketches. If a couple of top buyers drop out that could cause a big ripple effect.
But things have definitely changed. A few years ago (around the time of Spiderman Archives), the LOWEST sketches went for $18-20... now we see some go for below $5.
"Supply" is to collecting what "Location" is to Real Estate. Monkeymcgee is right that the intrinsic value will alway be there with sketch cards and art. And art is always subjective to "eye of the beholder." So the sky is not falling. But if you are looking at any kind of investment, keep the "supply" thing on your mind as no one is immune to excess supply --> less value. I can think of nearly a dozen high-dollar-Artists that are worth less than half of what they commanded initially. And card sets are completely different animal than Artist Commissions (for the most part) - some Artists seem to forget this.
Hopefully with Rittenhouse going down from 10k boxes of X-Men Archives to 7k boxes of Bronze Age, the suppliers are well aware of the "saturation issue." Now if only Rittenhouse would pick up more ideas of Upper Deck with such as Inserts and comic-industry-Artists though I'm sure it's not as easy to grab those Artists as it is for Upper Deck. Rittenhouse has down well with introducing fresh faces so props there!