View Single Post
Old 04-15-2013, 05:18 PM   #488 (permalink)
phil's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,548

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I'm going to make one BIG assumption but let's assume the following print runs for Prospects Autos ...

1,250 Base / 500 Refractor / 150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1995 TOTAL

And then RC autos ...

900 Base / 500 Refractor /150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1645 TOTAL

This estimate is an average of all players (even if some are SPed) and is lower than the production of 2012 Bowman Chrome, so I think it's a "safe" number. If you run the total number of autos available so far, (1995)(41) + (1645)(10) you end up with a total of 98,245 prospect and RC autos printed by Bowman. Now add in Bowman Black autos, and insert autos (~1,000) and you end up with a total auto count of 99,245

Bowman Draft had six hobby cases for every jumbo case, so in this same coalition, with 99,245 total autos (12 per hobby case, 24 per jumbo case), I'm estimating the following case run:

6,250 Hobby cases
1,000 Jumbo cases

For every new prospect auto Bowman adds on, this will increase the print run by another 120 hobby cases / 20 jumbo cases. This print run also suggests around 3 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.5 color autos per hobby case (which is much more like Bowman Chrome, and less like Bowman Draft where the average was 2 color per hobby case).

Long story short ... it's an insanely high print run which will make sets, base lots and inserts almost worthless.

2011 and 2012 bowman had way, way more jumbo cases made than 2012 BDPP. in fact some were figuring about the same print run for jumbo and hobby both those years (something like 2500-3000 cases each).

that's the more likely comparison, particularly since 2013 jumbos have been selling like crazy for months but are still readily available everywhere you look. if Topps was only making 1000 cases jumbos would be $300/box and impossible to find right now.
phil is offline   Reply With Quote