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Old 04-24-2013, 01:11 PM   #707 (permalink)
auctionjmm
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Location: Cleveland, OH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I'm going to make one BIG assumption but let's assume the following print runs for Prospects Autos ...

1,250 Base / 500 Refractor / 150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1995 TOTAL

And then RC autos ...

900 Base / 500 Refractor /150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1645 TOTAL

This estimate is an average of all players (even if some are SPed) and is lower than the production of 2012 Bowman Chrome, so I think it's a "safe" number. If you run the total number of autos available so far, (1995)(41) + (1645)(10) you end up with a total of 98,245 prospect and RC autos printed by Bowman. Now add in Bowman Black autos, and insert autos (~1,000) and you end up with a total auto count of 99,245

Bowman Draft had six hobby cases for every jumbo case, so in this same coalition, with 99,245 total autos (12 per hobby case, 24 per jumbo case), I'm estimating the following case run:

6,250 Hobby cases
1,000 Jumbo cases

For every new prospect auto Bowman adds on, this will increase the print run by another 120 hobby cases / 20 jumbo cases. This print run also suggests around 3 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.5 color autos per hobby case (which is much more like Bowman Chrome, and less like Bowman Draft where the average was 2 color per hobby case).

Long story short ... it's an insanely high print run which will make sets, base lots and inserts almost worthless.
I did some digging for you.

2011 Bowman had a print run of 3100 hobby and 2800 jumbo cases

2012 Bowman had a print run of 3300 jumbo cases, and I don't know that hobby was ever confirmed, but I think it was lower than 2011 based on odds. Both years had almost identical total print runs.

So the TOTAL print run both years was around 6,000 cases, evenly split between jumbo and hobby.

Maybe you should re-calculate your estimates based on 2011 and 2012 print runs. Do you really think 2013 would be that much worse compared to 11 or 12 in terms of production?
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