Originally Posted by NeedChapmans
So now that we know the Hobby Odds, we can figure out how many cases we're produced based on the autos print run. Let's take Blue. As the odds in Jumbo were 1:99 packs and we knew 4,750 cases of Jumbo will be produced, that means all Jumbo cases will contain 4,606 Prospect Blue Autos. The total number of Blue autos printed (42*150) is 6,300 ... that means Hobby cases will contain the remaining 1,694 Blue autos (some held back for replacements so number below will be slightly inflated).
As a blue auto falls just under one per two cases ... that makes for 3,400 Hobby cases produced. So 3,400 Hobby cases / 4,750 Jumbo cases ... here's what we've got for Base auto print run.
1551 base autos per player in Jumbo / 613 base autos per player in Hobby. Total print run of base autos ... 2,164. Let's say Topps holds back 64 for replacements. 2,100 Base Autos per prospect.
So, a TOTAL production increase of 36% over last year, yet the odds on Non-Auto parallels increased by 250% in Jumbo and NOT improved in Hobby to adjust. Where are all the missing refractors? Are they just numbered lower this year? I am confused.