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Old 12-03-2008, 10:07 AM   #76 (permalink)
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I'm guessing the reason why the odds of pulling a base refractor aren't listed is to prevent people from acquiring an accurate account of their overall print run.
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Old 12-03-2008, 10:21 AM   #77 (permalink)
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Pretty interesting to see the prices of the cases going up the last couple of days. On Monday you could get them for $649 but yesterday and today they are up to $700 and higher.
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Old 12-03-2008, 12:15 PM   #78 (permalink)
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Jaypers - you're not thinking that through - I think he just omitted it:

Super Fractor = 55736 x 18 Prospect Autos in the set = 1003248 total packs divided by 288 packs per case = 3483 cases total print run

Regardless of that little math, why wouldn't Topps want me to know the print run? I don't get it? They WOULD want me to know the print run because it's much more limited = less supply = more demand = price goes up. That works FOR them, not against them.

Another tidbit: if my math is correct and there are 4 color plates per card, then I can reverse calculate the odds of a Plate Auto to be 55736 / 4 = 13934 Packs. Based on past experience with Chrome products, that's not an exact number (08 BC had 40216 Super and 10471 Plate which is slightly more than 40216 / 4), but it at least gives you an idea.

Oh yeah, and in case you're interested, here are the odds for 08 BC Prospect Autos as a simple comparison to show how limited the 08 BCDP print run is compared to 08 BC:

Reg: 31
Ref: 88
XRef: 175
Blue Ref: 295
Gold Ref: 953
Orange Ref: 1784
Red Ref: 8459
Super Ref: 40216
Plate: 10471

Now let's look at the 08 BC print run for comparison purposes as well:

40216 x 43 Autos (BCP-241 to BCP-285 - I think those last 3 were added to 08 BC and not 08 Bowman) = 1729288 / 216 Packs per Case = Approx 8,000 Cases <= HUGE print run, which is why prices tanked.
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Last edited by parsetdx; 12-03-2008 at 12:24 PM.
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Old 12-03-2008, 12:25 PM   #79 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by parsetdx View Post
Jaypers - you're not thinking that through - I think he just omitted it:

Super Fractor = 55736 x 18 Prospect Autos in the set = 1003248 total packs divided by 288 packs per case = 3483 cases total print run

Regardless of that little math, why wouldn't Topps want me to know the print run? I don't get it? They WOULD want me to know the print run because it's much more limited = less supply = more demand = price goes up. That works FOR them, not against them.

Another tidbit: if my math is correct and there are 4 color plates per card, then I can reverse calculate the odds of a Plate Auto to be 55736 / 4 = 13934 Packs. Based on past experience with Chrome products, that's not an exact number (08 BC had 40216 Super and 10471 Plate which is slightly more than 40216 / 4), but it at least gives you an idea.

Oh yeah, and in case you're interested, here are the odds for 08 BC Prospect Autos as a simple comparison to show how limited the 08 BCDP print run is compared to 08 BC:

Reg: 31
Ref: 88
XRef: 175
Blue Ref: 295
Gold Ref: 953
Orange Ref: 1784
Red Ref: 8459
Super Ref: 40216
Plate: 10471
2002 was the last year in which Topps serialized the prospect refractors. They haven't done it since, which tells me they are trying to be secretive about their print run.

And your math doesn't take into account that Topps holds back a small portion of the overall print run to replace damaged cards.

Finally, remember that there will be retail packs as well, which won't include Superfractors (and Red Refractors, I believe) in packs.
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Old 12-03-2008, 12:39 PM   #80 (permalink)
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Well, we can only get so close - I can't predict how much they hold back, but I'm sure it's what we would call "immaterial" to our investigation.

I can see your point on the retail - so let's take the Blue Refractor Auto instead because those odds printed on that Hobby pack HAVE to take into account the FULL production run - even retail - or they are lying about what I can actually pull out of that exact pack. So here's what we have:

396 (Odds) x 18 (Autos) x 150 (Run) = 1069200 / 288 = Approx 3700 Cases Worth. This isn't rocket science here - it's simple math using their stated odds which would only be affected in the very slightest by any holdback.

So the conclusion is they have 3700 cases "worth" of cards in the 24 per box 12 box per case format. Based on the Superfractor calculation and the comment you made about Supers being Hobby only, we can estimate that they have produced Approx 3500 HOBBY cases and Approx 200 Retail cases "worth" of cards. So let's examine the retail a little bit more by converting our hobby cases into retail cases:

200 cases worth of hobby x 12 boxes per case x 24 packs per box = 57600 Retail Packs / 8 = 7200 Retail Boxes / 20 Boxes per Case = 360 Retail Cases. I'm guessing on that 20 Retail boxes per Case number, but you can change that out if you have better information.

So we have Approx 3500 HOBBY cases and Approx 350 RETAIL cases in the print run. This says, if you want to buy any retail at all, buy them when you see them because they are in SHORT supply.

Either way - I still disagree that Topps has any interest in hiding anything as I've just proved a.) they aren't hiding anything at all as I can use any of those numbers to derive what I'm looking for and b.) the simple economics of the matter shows it's in their interest to advertise the fact that they have produced a very limited product (driving up prices). This goes right to Crash's comment above - see how quickly prices have escalated since release when we finally saw the product and realized the short supply in the market? If you look at the marketing material before hand - the published print runs were much higher - it's the simple fact that the Prospect Auto list went from a whopping 40 Autos down to 18. So, your pre-sell prices were based on those inflated runs, and then it turned about to be much more limited causing the price to jump very quickly after release. Supply and Demand.

Now if you're saying they would want to hide the print runs of the ridiculously overproduced 08 BC, then I get it from an economic argument, but they still can't because I can again calculate the run based on the numbers they have provided.
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Last edited by parsetdx; 12-03-2008 at 12:51 PM.
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Old 12-03-2008, 12:51 PM   #81 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by parsetdx View Post
Jaypers - you're not thinking that through - I think he just omitted it:
Regular Refractor non-auto odds are not listed on the packs. With that said, based on my breaks they are probably the same as last year (1:11). So, this gives them a print run of approximately... Help me with the math...
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Old 12-03-2008, 03:32 PM   #82 (permalink)
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yes, the base refractors are not listed on the pack...here are the odds for the "bonus" chrome autos.

base--1:627
ref--1:2000
gold--1:3965
orange--1:7962
red--1:39500
super--1:189500

If you do the math based on these odds..there are 5 of these cards so 5 x 189500=947,500/288=3289.....very close to the other calculations
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Old 12-05-2008, 01:18 PM   #83 (permalink)
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I opened 3 boxes and got both Beckham and Posey base autos, so I am very happy and might consider getting 3 more boxes.
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