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Old 12-01-2008, 11:36 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default 2008 UD Documentary Baseball

want to get some opinions on 2008 UD Documentary Baseball.

is this a worthwhile bust? obviously it is going to be a lot of work especially if you are going to open multiple cases. sets will take forever to make.

one case will not make a complete set.
12 boxes/24 packs/15 cards - $660 current Blowout price.

360 cards a box minus 1 gold per pack/6 all star inserts per box/1 auto box equals 329 regular cards a box x 12 boxes equals 3948 regular cards per case.
4980 cards in a complete set.

if you are unlucky, it could take 3 or more cases to make a set!!

are more than a couple people really going to pay around $700-$800 or more for a set of this?

seems much more likely that you will be able to sell 166 card team sets for between $25-$50.

trading and buying singles will be difficult if not ridiculous.


lets hear everyones opinion.
thanks,
Andrew
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Old 12-01-2008, 11:57 PM   #2 (permalink)
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this is truly a product for a very determined collector. i would have no patience in putting this together and other than the set novelty, i don't see much else in the set to just buy a box or two.
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Old 12-02-2008, 08:42 AM   #3 (permalink)
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There are a few other threads on here about Documentary. I am planning to buy a case for myself to build the set. If there are three people here who may purchases a case I would not have any trouble trading or buying/selling to finish the set. To turn a profit on this product I would think you would need to buy a ton of cases. If you buy 10 cases or so you should be able to put together around 4 or 5 sets, sell the extras for other set builders or maybe trade to finish another set if your collation was good. Don't expect more than $0.25 per card on average for base and $0.50 for the gold. The autographs are still up in the air. I can't find a checklist for it and depending on who is in it and if anyone is short-printed you could really make out on multiple cases.
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Old 12-02-2008, 08:54 AM   #4 (permalink)
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I'd love to put a set together, but as others have said this is just to big. My wife owuld go bonkers if I brought home 2 cases and said lets bust this to put together a set...oh and by the way the set is 5000 cards. For me even with sleeving the cards, your now almost @ two monster boxes for this set. I just can't see guys spending 800+ for a set...much less the 50 to ship it! Team sets are an interesting idea..there may be a much more of a market for these. I'm sure the parallels will sell, but it all depends if the idea of this product has really pushed collectors away or not.
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Old 12-02-2008, 09:23 AM   #5 (permalink)
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I almost hope some collectors and rip/flip guys get pushed away. Makes it cheaper for me in the long run if less people are buying.


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Originally Posted by iluvfish2 View Post
I'd love to put a set together, but as others have said this is just to big. My wife owuld go bonkers if I brought home 2 cases and said lets bust this to put together a set...oh and by the way the set is 5000 cards. For me even with sleeving the cards, your now almost @ two monster boxes for this set. I just can't see guys spending 800+ for a set...much less the 50 to ship it! Team sets are an interesting idea..there may be a much more of a market for these. I'm sure the parallels will sell, but it all depends if the idea of this product has really pushed collectors away or not.
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Old 12-02-2008, 10:52 AM   #6 (permalink)
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I was thinking 7 or 10 cases was about the right number also to make multiple sets.
hard though to plop $4500 to $6600 on this right now though especially if it tanks within a week.
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Old 12-03-2008, 06:44 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I was seriously thinking about multiple cases, but will have to wait for the completed checklist before I make any decisions now. I also really doubt this product is going to release on the 15th, they still haven't updated anything on the checklist. I see it more realistically releasing in 2 months.
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Old 12-03-2008, 10:03 PM   #8 (permalink)
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The longer they wait, the more it will hurt the product. Who is going to care about the 08 season when spring training has started.

And if they would just release the Autograph checklist!

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I was seriously thinking about multiple cases, but will have to wait for the completed checklist before I make any decisions now. I also really doubt this product is going to release on the 15th, they still haven't updated anything on the checklist. I see it more realistically releasing in 2 months.
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Old 12-03-2008, 10:42 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I love this concept but...they should have released part of it earlier. Fish raised a good point, why keep building a set about the 08 season as the 09 season is starting. If you started during the last month of the season you might be far enough along to keep going.

My thought is the Rays and Phillies fans have the biggest reason to buy this stuff but Rays fans don't even show up to games.

I'm a Reds fan and the sooner I forget 08 the better and 07,06,05,04,03.....

So, I think the product will flop, plus big set builders are consumed by Yankee Legacy or is that over with yet???

But if you guys buy and have extra Brandon Phillips cards you know where to send them
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Old 12-04-2008, 02:50 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I talked to a guy at Upper Deck today and he said that the set is still set to release on time. He also said he could not find any information about the checklist for the autographs.
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Old 12-15-2008, 09:06 AM   #11 (permalink)
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The checklist was posted on the UD website. The all-star set is 55 cards and 5 HR derby cards. The signature set is 60 cards. A lot of young guys in the auto set. I was hoping for a better mix of autographs. The auto set seems fairly weak but I guess with young guys you never know.
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Old 12-16-2008, 01:30 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Typical low priced Upper Deck product auto checklist...full of 2nd season players, rookies and a couple superstars. Clayton Kershaw, Chris Smith, Derek Jeter and Griffey basically highlight the checklist. With all of those rookies and only one hit per box it would have been thoughtful of UD to include the better rookies like Evan Longoria, Alexei Ramirez, Mike Aviles, Jed Lowrie, Jay Bruce and Brad Ziegler among others. Then again, Upper Deck isn't too thoughtful about their customers.
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Old 12-16-2008, 08:50 AM   #13 (permalink)
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The only thing that helps me out with this checklist is that it won't be too hard to complete. As long as you pull at least one of the Griffey or Jeter in a case it won't be too bad. I am sure that they will somehow be short printed and I will get 5 of the same guy in a case.
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Old 12-16-2008, 11:31 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Here's a breakdown of the autos in the 2008 Documentary
AC Alexi Casilla Twins
AL Aaron Laffey Indians
AR Alex Romero Diamondbacks
BA Brian Bannister Royals
BB Brandon Boggs Rangers
BL Brent Lillibridge Braves
BO Brian Bocock Giants
BR Brian Bass Twins
BW Bobby Wilson Angels
CC Callix Crabbe Brewers
CH Corey Hart Brewers
CK Clayton Kershaw Dodgers
CP Chris Perez Cardinals
CR Carlos Rosa Royals
CS Chris Smith Red Sox
CT Clay Timpner Giants
CW Cory Wade Dodgers
DB Daric Barton Athletics
DJ Derek Jeter Yankees
DM David Murphy Rangers
DP David Purcey Blue Jays
ED Elijah Dukes Nationals
EJ Elliot Johnson Rays
FC Fausto Carmona Indians
FP Felipe Paulino Astros
GD German Duran Rangers
GS Greg Smith Athletics
HG Harvey Garcia Marlins
HI Hernan Iribarren Brewers
JB Jerry Blevins Athletics
JK Joe Koshansky Rockies
JN Jayson Nix Rockies
KG Ken Griffey Jr. Reds
KK Kevin Kouzmanoff Padres
KM Kyle McClellan Cardinals
LB Lance Broadway White Sox
LC Luke Carlin Padres
LI Adam Lind Blue Jays
LS Luke Scott Orioles
MH Micah Hoffpauir Cubs
MJ Matt Joyce Tigers
ML Matt Lindstrom Marlins
MO Micah Owings Diamondbacks
MT Matt Tolbert Twins
NB Nick Blackburn Twins
NM Nyjer Morgan Pirates
NS Nick Swisher White Sox
OH Ross Ohlendorf Pirates
RB Randor Bierd Orioles
RC Ryan Church Mets
RD Robinzon Diaz Pirates
RO Alex Romero Diamondbacks
RT Ramon Troncoso Dodgers
RW Rico Washington Cardinals
SH Steve Holm Giants
SP Steve Pearce Pirates
TS Takashi Saito Dodgers
TU Matt Tupman Royals
UJ Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies
WW Wesley Wright Astros
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Old 12-17-2008, 02:39 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I have decided to hold out on this. The autograph list is weak and there was another thread on here where a guy opened a box and got a Jorge Posada buyback jersey card instead of a autograph. If more people find junk jersey cards instead of the autograph they thought they were getting this product is in big trouble.
I will wait a little while and when the cases drop in price by half maybe I will try.
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Old 12-17-2008, 03:23 PM   #16 (permalink)
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I was doing the math on this -- it is basically impossible to make a full set without trading or busting tons of cases.

My math is very rusty and probably wrong -- but assuming no duplication of cards in a single case -- I think your chances of building a complete set from

4 Cases: 0.01%
5 Cases: 14.9%
6 Cases: 67.4%
7 Cases: 92.2%
8 Cases: 98.3%

That would suck to buy 6 cases and be short of a complete set...
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Old 12-17-2008, 03:47 PM   #17 (permalink)
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If you can't make a set on two cases then there are some pretty bad collation problems. And if that is the case this is a MAJOR loser! Probably a loser anyway but it does have some potential, I almost did it but didn't feel like sorting two cases of this crap.
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Old 12-17-2008, 03:53 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I'd like to know how you came up with those numbers.

12 boxes per case, 24 packs per box, 15 cards per pack= 4320 total cards. Minus the inserts, gold, and autos, you still get ~4000 cards out of a 4980 card set. No dups you get a set out of 2 cases.
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Old 12-17-2008, 04:07 PM   #19 (permalink)
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You get 3948 cards after inserts and whatnot out of a 4980 card set. So, on one case, there is a 20.7% chance of not getting any single card in the set ((4980-3948)/4980)). (i.e. you have a 79.3% chance to get card #1, but a 20.7% chance to not get it).

There is a 20.7% chance to not get #1 in the first case, and a 20.7% chance to not get card in case #2 -- 20.7% * 20.7% = 4.29% chance to not get card #1 in either case.

Chance to not get a single card in # of cases:

1: 20.7% = 20.7%
2: 20.7% * 20.7% = 4.29%
3: 20.7% ^ 3 = 0.89%
4: 20.7% ^ 4 = 0.18%
5: 20.7% ^ 5 = 0.038%
6: 20.7% ^ 6 = 0.0079%
7: 20.7% ^ 7 = 0.0016%
8: 20.7% ^ 8 = 0.00034%

Now, you have to take the above number, and subtract it from 100% to determine what the chance is that you will get the card -- so for 6 cases, there is a 99.992% chance that you will get card #1.

You take that number and extrapolate it out for all 4980 cards in the set, so you take 99.992% and multiply it by itself 4980 times, or .99992 ^ 4980 = 0.674 or 67.4% chance of having at least 1 of every card in the set.

If you could guarantee that you got consecutive cases off the production line, these numbers change...a lot...

My numbers assume that your case has no duplicates with itself, and that every case (other than having 3948 unique cards) is randomly collated.
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Old 12-17-2008, 04:17 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Oh ok, I see where you are coming from. I originally thought you were figuring on zero dups from all cases, not just one.
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Old 12-30-2008, 08:51 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Not one complete set has sold on Ebay, this product must be a flop. I'm glad I changed my mind.
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Old 12-30-2008, 08:58 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiggs View Post
Not one complete set has sold on Ebay, this product must be a flop. I'm glad I changed my mind.
They're still sorting!
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Old 12-30-2008, 09:04 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iluvfish2 View Post
They're still sorting!
LOL


Actually, I take back my original comment, complete sets aren't selling but team sets are selling really well. They are averaging $50-$70 for 163 card sets.
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Old 01-01-2009, 02:29 PM   #24 (permalink)
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I am still thinking about this set but I agree that it has flopped. The autograph set was way too weak. They could have at least made sure there was one autograph from each team. I mean come on if you are documenting the entire season why can't you do that!

And the two biggest autographs in the set are Jeter and Griffey. Not one has surfaced on ebay yet. How short printed did they make them? Based on what is listed so far I would have thought there would have been at least one on there so far.

I will wait and see how much the price comes down. It is a low price product to begin with so I don't know how much it will drop.

If they try again maybe just one card for every game played instead of one for each team for every game. Cut the set down in half.
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