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Old 05-16-2011, 07:45 PM   #26 (permalink)
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You are right, there are 110 prospects. So I am wondering if the prospect autos added late 111-113 must not have base cards, they are not on the checklist.

Here is what I did, Super is 1/20000 packs of hobby

20000/24 = 833.33 odds per box
833.33/12 = 69.4 odds per case
69.4 * 110 prospect chrome supers = 7639 cases made

Sound about right! Wondering what others thought.
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:48 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
You are right, there are 110 prospects. So I am wondering if the prospect autos added late 111-113 must not have base cards, they are not on the checklist.

Here is what I did, Super is 1/20000 packs of hobby

20000/24 = 833.33 odds per box
833.33/12 = 69.4 odds per case
69.4 * 110 prospect chrome supers = 7639 cases made

Sound about right! Wondering what others thought.
they are in different spots in the checklist, Adam Warren has an auto and is prospect card 48
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:49 PM   #28 (permalink)
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I have my MBA but I got a C- in Advanced Statistics, so this may be an extremely stupid question. How are the odds on chrome prospect autos 1:34 and the odds on chrome RC autos 1:103 if you're supposed to get one or the other in every 24 pack box?
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:51 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
So by my math with the 1/20000 pack odds of a Super and 113 chrome prospects in the set, I come up with about 7850 cases made. Sound about right??

Would that just be hobby cases or everything??
Well if the 1 in 20,000 is hobby only and assuming a chunk of the supers would be inserted into Jumbo, then the estimate of 7800 total hobby cases would be a little too high. For example, lets say 70 prospect supers inserted in hobby at 1 in 20,000 would mean 4860 hobby cases and then ? supers inserted into ? Jumbo cases.

Best guess is that hobby cases are around 5500 like Bowman Draft, and then maybe 1500-2000 Jumbo cases.

Still over 2,000 less cases than BC or TC so definitely not as high of a production run as some people feared.

Last edited by auctionjmm; 05-16-2011 at 07:53 PM.
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:52 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
You are right, there are 110 prospects. So I am wondering if the prospect autos added late 111-113 must not have base cards, they are not on the checklist.

Here is what I did, Super is 1/20000 packs of hobby

20000/24 = 833.33 odds per box
833.33/12 = 69.4 odds per case
69.4 * 110 prospect chrome supers = 7639 cases made

Sound about right! Wondering what others thought.
You can't calculate anything based off these odds. You need jumbo in order to do that. Less packs and better odds in jumbo so it throws the total case #'s off. In 2011 printing plates are jumbo exclusive, so as soon as we find out the odds on jumbo we can figure out production.

Unless there is a hobby exclusive card, we can't calculate anything. However, based off initial odds. It doesn't look good. Here's a comparison...


2011 Bowman Hobby Odds
Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:33
Blue Ref 1:105
Gold 1:542
Orange 1:1070
Red 1:4020
Super 1:20,000

chrome prospect auto 1:34
refractor 1:119
blue 1:394
gold 1:1210
orange 1:2382
red 1:11,910
super 1:57,850

2010 Bowman Hobby Odds
Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:16
Blue Ref 1:46
Gold 1:228
Orange 1:463
Red 1:2,828
Super 1:11,000

chrome prospect auto 1:38
refractor 1:96
blue 1:139
gold 1:957
orange 1:1,917
red 1:9,587
super 1:47,000
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:55 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by auctionjmm View Post
Well if the 1 in 20,000 is hobby only and assuming a chunk of the supers would be inserted into Jumbo, then the estimate of 7800 total cases might be a little high. For example, 70 prospect supers at 1 in 20,000 would mean 4860 hobby cases and then ??? Jumbo.

Best guess is that hobby cases are around 5500 like Bowman Draft, and then maybe 1500-2000 Jumbo cases.

Still over 2,000 less cases than BC or TC so definitely not as high of a production run as some people feared.
That makes sense Jim, thanks for clarifying.

My math would be correct though, right??

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Originally Posted by SethMurphy View Post
they are in different spots in the checklist, Adam Warren has an auto and is prospect card 48
Thank you Seth, so there would be 110 chrome prospect supers in the set.
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:55 PM   #32 (permalink)
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You can't calculate anything based off these odds. You need jumbo in order to do that. Less packs and better odds in jumbo so it throws the total case #'s off. In 2011 printing plates are jumbo exclusive, so as soon as we find out the odds on jumbo we can figure out production.

Unless there is a hobby exclusive card, we can't calculate anything. However, based off initial odds. It doesn't look good. Here's a comparison...


2011 Bowman Hobby Odds
Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:33
Blue Ref 1:105
Gold 1:542
Orange 1:1070
Red 1:4020
Super 1:20,000

chrome prospect auto 1:34
refractor 1:119
blue 1:394
gold 1:1210
orange 1:2382
red 1:11,910
super 1:57,850

2010 Bowman Hobby Odds
Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:16
Blue Ref 1:46
Gold 1:228
Orange 1:463
Red 1:2,828
Super 1:11,000

chrome prospect auto 1:38
refractor 1:96
blue 1:139
gold 1:957
orange 1:1,917
red 1:9,587
super 1:47,000
Refractors this year are falling at less than one per hobby box...that doesn't sound good.
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:55 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by kajshack View Post
I have my MBA but I got a C- in Advanced Statistics, so this may be an extremely stupid question. How are the odds on chrome prospect autos 1:34 and the odds on chrome RC autos 1:103 if you're supposed to get one or the other in every 24 pack box?
because the regular autograph gets replaced by a refractor parallel every so often. If it was 1:24 every box would have a regular auto and then some boxes will have multiple autographs. this way the odds work out to 1:24 Autograph in general

based on those odds most cases will have 7/8 regular auto's, 3 refractors, 2 blue refractors. Every 4 cases will have a gold and so on.

Last edited by dhcollecting; 05-16-2011 at 07:58 PM.
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:57 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frzg View Post
You can't calculate anything based off these odds. You need jumbo in order to do that. Less packs and better odds in jumbo so it throws the total case #'s off. In 2011 printing plates are jumbo exclusive, so as soon as we find out the odds on jumbo we can figure out production.

Unless there is a hobby exclusive card, we can't calculate anything. However, based off initial odds. It doesn't look good. Here's a comparison...


2011 Bowman Hobby Odds
Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:33
Blue Ref 1:105
Gold 1:542
Orange 1:1070
Red 1:4020
Super 1:20,000

chrome prospect auto 1:34
refractor 1:119
blue 1:394
gold 1:1210
orange 1:2382
red 1:11,910
super 1:57,850

2010 Bowman Hobby Odds
Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:16
Blue Ref 1:46
Gold 1:228
Orange 1:463
Red 1:2,828
Super 1:11,000

chrome prospect auto 1:38
refractor 1:96
blue 1:139
gold 1:957
orange 1:1,917
red 1:9,587
super 1:47,000
Still have to wait for jumbos though, just thought I could get a rough estimate.

When you say it doesn't look good, what do you mean? High production, just curious.
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:58 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frzg View Post
You can't calculate anything based off these odds. You need jumbo in order to do that. Less packs and better odds in jumbo so it throws the total case #'s off. In 2011 printing plates are jumbo exclusive, so as soon as we find out the odds on jumbo we can figure out production.

Unless there is a hobby exclusive card, we can't calculate anything. However, based off initial odds. It doesn't look good. Here's a comparison...


2011 Bowman Hobby Odds
Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:33
Blue Ref 1:105
Gold 1:542
Orange 1:1070
Red 1:4020
Super 1:20,000

chrome prospect auto 1:34
refractor 1:119
blue 1:394
gold 1:1210
orange 1:2382
red 1:11,910
super 1:57,850

2010 Bowman Hobby Odds
Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:16
Blue Ref 1:46
Gold 1:228
Orange 1:463
Red 1:2,828
Super 1:11,000

chrome prospect auto 1:38
refractor 1:96
blue 1:139
gold 1:957
orange 1:1,917
red 1:9,587
super 1:47,000
Yes but also consider that 2010 hobby and jumbo are practically a myth now lol. You don't see ANY hobby or jumbo cases of this stuff anywhere except a few sites that kept a case or two and have them at rich man's prices, and most were dried up in 2 months. By doubling production the product will definitely last a bit longer but ultimately it will dry up. If 5500 cases of Bowman Draft could dry up in 6 months then expect the same with this.
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:58 PM   #36 (permalink)
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because the regular autograph gets replaced by a refractor parallel every so often. If it was 1:24 every box would have a regular auto and then some boxes will have multiple autographs. this way the odds work out to 1:24 Autograph in general
Makes sense. Thanks.

Told you I was dumb.
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Old 05-16-2011, 08:03 PM   #37 (permalink)
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For hobby per case,

prospect ref: 8.72 per case
blue ref: 2.74 per case
gold ref: .53 per case
orange ref: .269 per case

ref autos: 2.42 ref autos per case
blue autos: .73 blue autos per case
gold autos: .23 gold autos per case
orange autos: .12 orange autos per case (or 1 in 8+ cases)

HOWEVER, you have a better chance of pulling Harper base autos this year than you did in 2010 with Strasburg. However, either Harper parallel autos are loaded in Jumbos, or they just made a lot more Harper base autos this year than they did stasburg as odds are much tougher.

Harper base autos are 1:1,462 packs
Strasburg base autos were 1:2013

Harper blue autos are 1:9,750 packs
Strasburg blue autos were 1:5,700

Harper orange autos are 1:100,000
Strasburg orange autos were 1:56,500

By the way, if people get annoyed with my analytical posts, just let me know and I'll tone it down. I was an econ major so I love playing with numbers.
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Old 05-16-2011, 08:13 PM   #38 (permalink)
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holy cow! Not good odds on the Harper parallel autos.
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:00 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Honestly I'm really disappointed. Comparing odds from this year to last year, it's obvious there has been a fairly sizable increase in production. Last year, I preordered a jumbo case for $800 through my distributor (which I foolishly ripped on the release date). I did okay, and I still have a lot of base chrome prospects saved up, but I still ended up losing a little bit of money on my rip-and-flip. I was fortunate enough to hit a Harper blue refractor, a Harper base refractor, three base Harpers, and 6 base Strasburgs (if I recall correctly). I also hit some decent autos, like Starlin Castro, Donovan Tate, Heathcott and Decker color autos, etc...and I still didn't come out ahead.

At current hobby and jumbo prices (~$90/box / ~$160/box) and given what we know so far based off hobby odds, I think there are going to be a lot of colorless breaks filled with $8-$12 base autos.

I'm definitely not trying to hate, and I could be very wrong, but I think the prices aren't going to go up any higher. Remember, 2010 Bowman Chrome went a bit crazy before the release, and then once it actually hit the shelves and the breaks were bad, the price fell.
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:04 PM   #40 (permalink)
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any jumbo odds yet?
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:05 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Remember, 2010 Bowman Chrome went a bit crazy before the release, and then once it actually hit the shelves and the breaks were bad, the price fell.

there is no comparison between demand for 2010 BC after strasburg went down and demand for 2011 bowman right now
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:08 PM   #42 (permalink)
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I'm definitely not trying to hate, and I could be very wrong, but I think the prices aren't going to go up any higher. Remember, 2010 Bowman Chrome went a bit crazy before the release, and then once it actually hit the shelves and the breaks were bad, the price fell.
So far people have been very happy with their retail breaks, and those are even worse odds, so I think this will still do alright. Bowman Chrome had about a minute of hype and was already on it's way down by release. 2011 jumbos are now twice cost. BC was NEVER twice cost.
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:22 PM   #43 (permalink)
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there is no comparison between demand for 2010 BC after strasburg went down and demand for 2011 bowman right now
Quote:
Originally Posted by auctionjmm View Post
So far people have been very happy with their retail breaks, and those are even worse odds, so I think this will still do alright. Bowman Chrome had about a minute of hype and was already on it's way down by release. 2011 jumbos are now twice cost. BC was NEVER twice cost.
I wasn't saying it was a 100% accurate comparison.

Just like 2010 Bowman isn't an accurate comparison to 2011 Bowman.

In addition to the overproduction, the release of retail a few days before hobby is working against this release as well. We've already seen what the glut of retail has done to the Harper chromes in just 2 or 3 days.

Again, I'm not hating, and I know you guys have a lot invested in this and I hope it works out for you. As a fellow ripper/flipper with over $3k in monthly ebay sales, I want every product to do well, even if I'm not heavily into it. It's good for the hobby when flagship releases are strong. Last year's craziness brought in a ton of new collectors, and any dealer should be happy about that. I just think this year won't come close to last year's hype, simply due to the differences in production.
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:29 PM   #44 (permalink)
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Has anyone got tracking information on their '11 Bowman pre-orders from BO?
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:32 PM   #45 (permalink)
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got my tracking # friday
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:33 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Has anyone got tracking information on their '11 Bowman pre-orders from BO?
i'm getting mine tomorrow........... but i didn't buy from BO.

also, i already sold my cases....... but i have 4x 24ct retail boxes coming tomorrow as well.....
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:35 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Has anyone got tracking information on their '11 Bowman pre-orders from BO?
Yes, 2 days ago. 2 jumbo cases shipped from Hodgkins, IL. I'm set to get them on Thursday.
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:57 PM   #48 (permalink)
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wow cards mean more to you than your wife and kid
I'm sure 99.98% of people recognize he was joking...

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