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Old 05-16-2011, 07:56 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Bowman Hobby Odds

someone posted these in the other forum -


2011 Bowman Hobby odds

Base and prospects parallels
International 1:8
Blue 1:18
Orange 1:35
Red 1:5000

Chrome prospects parallel:
refractor 1:33
Blue Ref 1:105
Gold 1:542
Orange 1:1070
Red 1:4020
Super 1:20,000


Topps 100: 1:3
Fineste futures 1:4
Bowmans Brightest 1:8
top of the class 1:8
bowmans best 1:6

Bowmans best parallel:
refractor 1:626
Xfrac 1:2540
atomic 1:40,500
red checklist parallel 1:1835

futures game triple relic 1:626
usa baseball logo patch card 1:1680
usa baseball retro logo patch 1:3150
buyback book card 1:90,000

chrome prospect auto 1:34
refractor 1:119
blue 1:394
gold 1:1210
orange 1:2382
red 1:11,910
super 1:57,850

Chrome rc autograph 1:103
refractor 1:359
blue ref 1:725
gold 1:3800
super 1:162,000


topps 60th anniversary 1:15,000

Bryce Harper auto: 1:1462
blue 1:9750
orange 1: 100,000
Red 1:405,000
print plate1:810,000
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Old 05-16-2011, 07:58 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Anyone have jumbo odds? They have to be a little different...
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Old 05-16-2011, 08:00 PM   #3 (permalink)
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looking at a few of those rough ballpark looks to be 6500-7500 cases hobby/jumbo combined.

obviously a lot more than 2010 bowman which is expected, but still way less than 2010 BC and i think not unreasonable compared to what the demand will be.
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Old 05-16-2011, 08:02 PM   #4 (permalink)
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For hobby per case,

prospect ref: 8.72 per case
blue ref: 2.74 per case
gold ref: .53 per case
orange ref: .269 per case

ref autos: 2.42 ref autos per case
blue autos: .73 blue autos per case
gold autos: .23 gold autos per case
orange autos: .12 orange autos per case (or 1 in 8+ cases)

HOWEVER, you have a better chance of pulling Harper base autos this year than you did in 2010 with Strasburg. However, either Harper parallel autos are loaded in Jumbos, or they just made a lot more Harper base autos this year than they did stasburg as odds are much tougher.

Harper base autos are 1:1,462 packs
Strasburg base autos were 1:2013

Harper blue autos are 1:9,750 packs
Strasburg blue autos were 1:5,700

Harper orange autos are 1:100,000
Strasburg orange autos were 1:56,500
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Old 05-16-2011, 08:06 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Well at least we know they just made parallels much more tough to pull in retail only, hobby odds are much more down-to-earth.
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Old 05-16-2011, 08:07 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phil View Post

obviously a lot more than 2010 bowman which is expected, but still way less than 2010 BC and i think not unreasonable compared to what the demand will be.
Exactly. I said this in the other thread too but I believe there were 5500 cases of Bowman Draft and that dried up fairly quick. 6500-7500 cases on the second best selling product Topps has is not bad at all.
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Old 05-16-2011, 08:09 PM   #7 (permalink)
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haven't seen jumbo odds yet. if 1/1s are easier to pull per case in jumbos, which is likely, it could reduce those numbers.
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:52 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by auctionjmm View Post
Exactly. I said this in the other thread too but I believe there were 5500 cases of Bowman Draft and that dried up fairly quick. 6500-7500 cases on the second best selling product Topps has is not bad at all.
It's bad if someone bought it to rip and sell singles on Ebay. Much less color than last year with a weaker checklist as well. Unless you hit Harper...ripping this is not looking good. Now ripping it for fun or flipping boxes/cases is a whole different story. I know what I am doing with mine after seeing these odds.
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Old 05-16-2011, 10:55 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I have a guy here locally that bought 25 jumbo cases!!!!
He breaks them and sells singles and sets on ebay
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Old 05-16-2011, 11:26 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by pac213up View Post
It's bad if someone bought it to rip and sell singles on Ebay. Much less color than last year with a weaker checklist as well. Unless you hit Harper...ripping this is not looking good. Now ripping it for fun or flipping boxes/cases is a whole different story. I know what I am doing with mine after seeing these odds.
Exactly. This is what I was saying in another thread. This is not going to be a good rip/flip.

Also, I think everyone and their mother bought in this year looking to flip sealed boxes or cases. Just look at the threads started by that guy itsinthecards or whatever. He's claiming that not only did he buy multiple cases, but he convinced his grandma, cousins, school custodian, barber, and his district selectman to buy cases to flip sealed. Now he may be full of $hit, but there is no way in hell there aren't about to be hundreds of amateur entrepreneurs who saw what happened last year and put up 6 months salary to buy as much of this as they could get their hands on. As soon as these cases are "in-hand", they'll be tons listed on ebay, the newbies will panic and slash their price, others will follow suit, and a domino effect will ensue.
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