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Old 10-11-2007, 12:19 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default BOWMAN DRAFT 2007 questions

Okay...I asked similar questions before Chrome came out, since I have never done it before especially large lots, many of you recommended me doing it and said I would do well...well after I decided to go for it case went up from $720 to like $950 in a day, lol

So, I missed...I heard many people lost money and price is now at $800 range

BUT for you experts and prospect hounds...IS DRAFT GOOD THIS YEAR? looks like auto checklist is weak, but can it still be broke for profit?
is 5 cases enough? or do i need 10? 15? 20?

What are the thoughts and what about current price levels??
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Old 10-11-2007, 12:20 AM   #2 (permalink)
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ps, how does this compare with elite extra?
are the same guys in it?
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Old 10-11-2007, 01:45 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Right now the Bowman Draft checklist is WEAK, really weak. However Topps has promised its an "early" checklist and it will change prior to release. Topps might have good reason to change it. With Elite and Tristar Prospects Plus coming out just a few weeks before Draft, the competition might cause them to change it for the better. Or Topps gets lazy and hopes it sells based on reputation.

If Topps does change the checklist and adds a few of the good names it should be a winner. Selling in 20 or 50 card player lots is usually the best bet with this. Even the RCs and Prospect AS Game cards will sell in lots. Like anything else you need 5 cases minimum, but the more the merrier. And the best news....NO SOTF Autos this year!!!

I just don't know about Elite. There seems to be alot of excitement about Donruss coming back to baseball. The checklist blows away Draft right now. All 1st rounders are in it. However, no license, players in college/High School uniforms, no MLB or MiLB team names or logos....I just don't know how this will sell. Plus for $80 per box you only get 4 autos OR jersey cards. They haven't said how many of those 4 are autos.

Tristar Prospect Plus like Elite has a killer checklist. A ton of autos both good and bad. They also have the MiLB license. Plus this was THE product last year from a sellers perspective. I haven't seen a price on these yet, but at 10 autos per box anything under $90 per box should be a money maker. I would love to see this start around $75-80 a box. This is also scheduled to be the first product with this year's drafted players in it, I think that's a plus. The bad news is the secret is out. Everyone saw how much money there was to be made on this last year, so there will be more rippers.

Then right after X-Mas you have Bowman Sterling. Checklist is pretty good the way it is right now. This was a winner last year it you sold early. Very seldom am I able to sell every card individually with breaks, Sterling was that way for me. I think this will do well again this year.

All this in Dec....plus buying X-Mas presents??? I'm going to be broke.
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Old 10-11-2007, 06:00 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Guys I have to chime in as this is my favorite area. Right now as Rock said the Draft checklist is not as strong as it should be. I think it will change but not as drastically as some people hope. I think Topps is sandbagging to put some of these guys in 08 Chrome. They can put them in Sterling and still have them as 1st Chrome cards next year so I suspect they will do this. Draft is still Draft and people will buy the crap out of it no matter what. They do every year.

As far as Elite is concerned I still consider this more of a fun break. I hate the price point on an unlicensed product. You are paying for all the extras. I like the idea of it but not from a break and make money stand point.

To me Tristar Prospects Plus is the play. Same setup as last year. 10 autos per box. They have every player from the 1st round all the way through the supplemental picks. Price is not that much higher than last years. If it releases before Draft and especially before Elite like it says it will this will be a huge winner in my opinion. I think it will win anyway but release date will make a big difference. They are tiering there autos this year much like Draft does with their refractors and I think that is a great idea.
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Old 10-11-2007, 09:52 AM   #5 (permalink)
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First of all, I'm not sure how anyone could have lost money on Chrome. Unless rolling the dice with one case or buying at 900 a case, opening this year's Chrome should have been a sure bet if you opened enough to make 10 or 20 card rookie lots and bought it a decent price. Even sets did fairly well. With 5 or 6 very average cases, I think even breaking even could have been possible. The auto checklist was about as good as it could have been.

With that said, if the Bowman Draft checklist doesn't change, I think it will be tough to make much money on. The price is pretty good right now, but there aren't enough potential big hits to make it a consistent money maker. However, the speculation is that Topps will add a few big names because they have in the past. Although it will be tough to make money, I don't think it's possible that this will be a huge bust either (i.e. Topps Chrome). I've already locked up 6 cases with this checklist because I think this and Chrome are so much fun to open and there are so many people who anticipate this product.

As for how to sell the rookies, I've seen a lot of people put all of one player into a huge lot or make 20 card lots of chrome and sell anything that's not Chrome separately in player lots as well. Both approaches seem to work equally well.
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Old 10-11-2007, 10:50 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
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To me Tristar Prospects Plus is the play. Same setup as last year. 10 autos per box. They have every player from the 1st round all the way through the supplemental picks. Price is not that much higher than last years. If it releases before Draft and especially before Elite like it says it will this will be a huge winner in my opinion. I think it will win anyway but release date will make a big difference. They are tiering there autos this year much like Draft does with their refractors and I think that is a great idea.

Early information that I have has the release date at 11/21. Here's a link to the product information:
Tristar Prospects Plus

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Old 10-11-2007, 02:41 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Guess I don't see how the 07 BCDP checklist is bad. 25 autos announced so far, and all of them are either 1st rounders (17 of the 25) or 1st round supplemental picks (8 of the 25).

Last year's BCDP had 25 autos, 12 of which were 2nd round picks.

And this is BEFORE the checklist additions. Given that SOTFs are being removed, if Topps wants to keep the auto insert ratios anywhere near what they were last year, they are going to have to add some autos to the list. Given that only 3 of the top 10 2007 picks have been announced as having autos in this product, I would expect that at least two more of them will be added.

Given that Price, Vitters, Moutsakas and Porcello haven't been announced as of yet, I can see how the checklist's name recognition would be underwhelming. But there is a whole hell of a lot of talent on that checklist, and I know I will be hitting this product heavily relative to what I normally do.
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Old 10-11-2007, 03:09 PM   #8 (permalink)
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My biggest problem w BCDP is that you only get 1 draft chrome card per pack. Yes those will sell well but then you are stuck with all of the non chrome cards, gold cards, future game cards that more and more collectors realize are not worth collecting. Based on the market right now for sets I really don't want to spend this kind of money on a case when I know for sure only one card in each pack will sell.
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Old 10-11-2007, 03:50 PM   #9 (permalink)
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There should be two chrome cards per pack. I know on the sell sheet there are two places that say 1 chrome per pack. If I'm reading correctly, you get one chrome card #BDP1-BDP154 AND one chrome card #BDPP1-BDPP65.

Also, I think that the way sets are selling shouldn't have much to do with Draft. I don't know anyone who gets excited about this product for sets. It's all about individual players. I think the way to sell all of the cards other than the Arod HR cards is player lots.

You're right though, if Draft were to contain half as many chromes, the value would take a huge hit.
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Old 10-11-2007, 04:32 PM   #10 (permalink)
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There should be two chrome cards per pack. I know on the sell sheet there are two places that say 1 chrome per pack. If I'm reading correctly, you get one chrome card #BDP1-BDP154 AND one chrome card #BDPP1-BDPP65.

Also, I think that the way sets are selling shouldn't have much to do with Draft. I don't know anyone who gets excited about this product for sets. It's all about individual players. I think the way to sell all of the cards other than the Arod HR cards is player lots.

You're right though, if Draft were to contain half as many chromes, the value would take a huge hit.
I think he's talking about the one chrome prospect per pack. The other chrome, last year, was worthless.

This year, it remains to be seen how people will see the Lincecum, Joba, etc. It does, however, remain a safe bet that these will not be seen as RCs, and that there is still only going to be one card per pack that is going to be worth anything.
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Old 10-12-2007, 01:46 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Given that SOTFs are being removed,
Howdy, MaddoxBT. Come here often?

Unfortunately, you are incorrect. I have a reliable contact at Topps who assures me that the SOTF's WILL be returning this year.

He's very hard to get information out of, but I managed to yank a couple of details from him.

Besides what I mentioned above, he told me Topps would soon be distributing a press release, which details all of the late changes that will be made to BDP. He doesn't know when this press release will go public, however.
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Old 10-12-2007, 04:32 PM   #12 (permalink)
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i wish that someone.... or anyone at Topps would realize that the SOTF autos are nothing but junk. getting rid of the SOTF and replacing them with another parallel set...... ie: Green Refractors #/99.... would be a smart move IMO.
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Old 10-12-2007, 04:45 PM   #13 (permalink)
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i wish that someone.... or anyone at Topps would realize that the SOTF autos are nothing but junk. getting rid of the SOTF and replacing them with another parallel set...... ie: Green Refractors #/99.... would be a smart move IMO.

Trust me on this - Topps is well aware of the general hatred for SOTFs. I can't seem to get a straight answer from them as to exactly why they must produce them year after year, but suffice it to say, as long as Chrome products continue to sell as well as they do, they have absolutely zero impetus to eliminate them.
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Old 10-12-2007, 05:49 PM   #14 (permalink)
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I was going on what I read here and elsewhere about the SOTFs.

I don't think I am alone in saying that I would much prefer they slap the sticker that would otherwise be headed for an SOTF on a chrome card numbered as part of the BDP set.

That way, they could do whatever parallels they wanted, and those cards might actually be chased. Say Jay Bruce or whatever. Yes, he has had Bowman Chrome cards in the past. But wouldn't you rather have his auto on a "green" chrome than an SOTF?

There's no reason why they couldn't do this. It's not any cheaper to slap it on an SOTF than a chrome. If they realize we hate them, they should do something about it.
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