Grade the Trade

[ReinholdMessner]

With the trade deadline soon approaching, I thought it would be fun to take a look at some recent history of these deadline deals and see how they look after a few years. I think particularly interesting are trades involving multiple prospects for 1 blue chip player.

Here's a few recent ones from my Phillies:

Phi - Joe Blanton - somewhat stable in the rotation, he is who we thought he was

for

Oak - Adrian Cardenas - blue chipper at the time, looks like he may be a quad A guy
Josh Outman - useful major league arm despite injury history
Matthew Spencer - who?

Winner: Oakland. I'd probably take Outman over Blanton straight up right now
______________
Phi - Cliff Lee - main reason the Phils had a postseason run in 2009
Ben Francisco - useful 4th OF

for

Cle - Carlos Carrasco - looking like a legit #3 starter but there are still some warts
Jason Donald - quad A middle infielder
Lou Marson - light hitting 2nd catcher
Jason Knapp - high ceiling but just got shot down with a 2nd major arm injury

Winner: Phi. Got a legit ace while losing 1 true first division starter
_______________

[ReinholdMessner]

Phi - Roy Halladay - no need to explain how valuable he has been

for

Tor - Kyle Drabek - was thought to be a #2, jury is out but looking more like #3-4
Michael Taylor - big kid who was supposed to develop power... hasn't... flipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace who was flipped for Anthony Gose... who looks like a poor man's Michael Bourn
Travis D'Arnaud - Making everyone's top 50 prospect list, looks like the catcher of the future
Winner: Phi. Wouldn't consider this an even trade unless Toronto came out of it with an MVP type player or 2 All stars
____________________

Sea - Cliff Lee, rent-a-season player who eventually was turned into Smoak plus prospects

for

Phi - Tyson Gillies - complete disappointment with injuries
Phillippe Aumont - failed attempt to convert to starter, good back of bullpen arm
JC Ramirez - possible 5th starter or long reliever, cant strike anyone out

Winner: Sea. By a mile. Aumont/Gillies have time to turn it around but it doesn't look good
_________________

[ReinholdMessner]

Last one for now

Phi - Roy Oswalt - great stretch run in 2nd half of 2010, now on shelf with back trouble

Hou - Anthony Gose (Brett Wallace see above) - Wallace is contributing admirably as a rookie on a bad team, while there are questions whether Gose will ever make enough contact
Jonathan Villar - another hitter with contact issues and a questionable glove in the middle of the infield
JA Happ - showed promise in 2010 but has been a disaster with a 5+ ERA this year

Winner - Phi. Especially when you consider that Houston picked up $11 mil of Oswalt's money

[waintrain]

Atl: JD Drew -not a horrible player but not great.
Eli Marrero -who?

FOR

STL: Jason Marquis -not an all star until 2009
Ray King -nobody reliever
Adam Wainwright -Nothing needs to be said.

[asujbl]

You should be listing player salaries and team payrolls if you really want to analyze the trades.

Obviously the Indians lost the Cliff Lee trade - no matter who they got they were going to lose that trade - but it was a payroll issue.

Same as the Sabathia and VMART trades.

Just saying it's easy when you just look at players - you can't do that in a bubble to see who really "won"

[ReinholdMessner]

Originally Posted by asujbl

You should be listing player salaries and team payrolls if you really want to analyze the trades.

Obviously the Indians lost the Cliff Lee trade - no matter who they got they were going to lose that trade - but it was a payroll issue.

Same as the Sabathia and VMART trades.

Just saying it's easy when you just look at players - you can't do that in a bubble to see who really "won"

I think you can almost always make the assumption that the team trading the star for prospects is doing it for payroll reasons. The question is whether the prospect will pan out or not. With Lee, he was under team control for a year and a half at a reasonable price, so the return for him should have been much better than what CLE got

Part of the intrinsic evaluation for the trade is the contract situation of the player. Those prospects do not equal out to a minimum 1.5 years of Cliff Lee

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by ReinholdMessner

I think you can almost always make the assumption that the team trading the star for prospects is doing it for payroll reasons. The question is whether the prospect will pan out or not. With Lee, he was under team control for a year and a half at a reasonable price, so the return for him should have been much better than what CLE got

I agree the Lee trade is a bad example as Cleveland had him for another year - but look at VMART then - obviously VMART will probably outperform Nick Hagadone (who hasn't played) and Justin Masterson - which is basically the 2 main keys to the trade.

So did we "lose" the trade? Sure - but did we get something back for someone that was walking anyway? Absolutely.

I like your thread - I'm just saying it's hard to analyze trades based on straight player movement. There is usually alot more to it.

I mean the Brewers are going to "win" the KRod trade because the 2 PTBNL's are probably going to be worthless at the end of the day - but if that allows the Mets to re-up Reyes do they win the trade?

[ReinholdMessner]

Originally Posted by asujbl

I like your thread - I'm just saying it's hard to analyze trades based on straight player movement. There is usually alot more to it.

I know, i get it.... and I'm telling you to factor that in with the trades... In other words, the Phillies didn't just get Oswalt, they got Oswalt for 1.5 years with an option for another while the Astros ate some of that money, in exchange for 3 young guys who don't look like much at this point. I just don't think we need to sit here and list each players salary and contract to do that when you can just eyeball it.

[bradical]

SEA - Jarrod Washburn

for

DET - Luke French, Mauricio Robles

In 2009, before the trade, Washburn was 8-6 with a 2.64 ERA for Seattle. After the trade, he was 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA (including a 6 IP game where he gave up 6 ER and 4 HR to Seattle) and then promptly retired.

French and Robles have been up and down through the M's system and are both young talent that still have plenty of time to make a career for themselves.

Thanks for the free players, Detroit.

Winner, and by a mile, is Seattle.

[Divino]

how about this ugly piece of braves history:

Braves get:

Mark Teixeira (Rental)
Ron Mahay (did next to nothing for them)


Rangers Get:

Elvis Andrus SS
Neftali Feliz P
Matt Harrison P
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Beau Jones P

YUCK!

[ReinholdMessner]

Wow, amazing the Braves system is still so deep with some of these trades you guys mentioned. It sort of makes sense how the Phillies have been able to hold on to the division for a few years based on the moves of the Mets and Braves when you think about it

[Divino]

Originally Posted by ReinholdMessner

Wow, amazing the Braves system is still so deep with some of these trades you guys mentioned. It sort of makes sense how the Phillies have been able to hold on to the division for a few years based on the moves of the Mets and Braves when you think about it

It is amazing. I just hope the braves aren't "due" for another one of these trades before the deadline this year. I really don't want them dumping vizcaino and/or teheran for another rental.

[Major_League]

Way too early to judge these trades imo.

[Boqueesha]

I give Tribe "winner" on all of these. Carlos obviously hasn't panned out yet but I still think we were the winner on that trade.

Cle - Casey Blake

for

LAD - Carlos Santana
____________________________

Cle - Eduardo Perez

for

Sea - Asdrubal Cabrera

____________________________

Cle - Ben Broussard

for

Sea - Chooooooooooooooo
______________________________

Cle - Mark Derosa

for

Stl - Chris Perez

[FLMARLIN]

Tigers deal.

Tigers Get:

A-Jax- lots of potential
Phil coke- solid reliever
Max Scherzer- looks to be a solid #2/#3 starter
Dan Schlereth

Yanks get:
Curtis Granderson - Stud,..... nuff said!

D-Backs get:
Edwin Jackson- traded for D huson
Ian Kennedy_ looks to be an OK starter


WINNER- Tigers, they got a start to a good team w/ this deal.

This off the top of my head, correct me if im wrong

[ceczerwonka]

2003

Cubs trade Bobby Hill, Matt Bruback and Jose Hernandez to the Pirates

In return the Cubs get Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton. Good deal for the Cubs even though there are rumors of them now trading Ramirez.

[SethMurphy]

This one is one of the MAIN reasons it is tough to be a Yankee fan sometimes...


New York gets Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte

Pittsburgh gets Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen and Ross Ohlendorf

Tabata still has an incredibly bright future, and right now McCutchen has an ERA of 2.31 in 38 relief appearances, Karstens is 7-4 with a 2.55 ERA in 15 starts and 19 appearances and Ohlendorf is currently hurt, but in the last two seasons has had ERA's of 3.92 and 4.07 - I would take any of those three pitchers over Bartolo and Freddy Garcia

[SethMurphy]

Originally Posted by FLMARLIN

Tigers deal.

Tigers Get:

A-Jax- lots of potential
Phil coke- solid reliever
Max Scherzer- looks to be a solid #2/#3 starter
Dan Schlereth

Yanks get:
Curtis Granderson - Stud,..... nuff said!

D-Backs get:
Edwin Jackson- traded for D huson
Ian Kennedy_ looks to be an OK starter


WINNER- Tigers, they got a start to a good team w/ this deal.

This off the top of my head, correct me if im wrong

I badly want Kennedy, Jackson and Coke back in this deal, I do NOT like Granderson personally

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by FLMARLIN

Tigers deal.

Tigers Get:

A-Jax- lots of potential
Phil coke- solid reliever
Max Scherzer- looks to be a solid #2/#3 starter
Dan Schlereth

Yanks get:
Curtis Granderson - Stud,..... nuff said!

D-Backs get:
Edwin Jackson- traded for D huson
Ian Kennedy_ looks to be an OK starter


WINNER- Tigers, they got a start to a good team w/ this deal.

This off the top of my head, correct me if im wrong

Give me the D-Backs as the overall winner (if you take into account what they got for Edwin) - I'd rather have Kennedy/Hudson then any other players in the deal (other then Granderson - and I'd still take the 2 pitchers over him as a single player)

Kennedy is better then an OK starter.

[georgewashinton]

Originally Posted by FLMARLIN

Tigers deal.

Tigers Get:

A-Jax- lots of potential
Phil coke- solid reliever
Max Scherzer- looks to be a solid #2/#3 starter
Dan Schlereth

Yanks get:
Curtis Granderson - Stud,..... nuff said!

D-Backs get:
Edwin Jackson- traded for D hudson
Ian Kennedy_ looks to be an OK starter


WINNER- Tigers, they got a start to a good team w/ this deal.

This off the top of my head, correct me if im wrong

I say that is a 3 way tie. All of those players (if you swap Jackson for Hudson) are important pieces of teams vying for playoffs spots.

[waintrain]

How bout this one:

Cubs get Ernie Brogolio

Cardinals get Lou Brock!!!

That's one of the greatest trades ever!