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Old 07-24-2011, 03:01 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Insanity with this whole Harper hype train

Anyone else realize that Harper cards sell for way more than Ruth, mantle, Gherig, DiMaggio, Koufax, Aaron, Jeter, Pujols, Nolan R., etc etc.

And the kid is in AA.

I just LOL at the whole notion of Prospect hype. I understand it, but think it's all but ridiculous.

People would pay $5k for a rare Harper card (or over 20k for strasburg, the Harper super will go for just as much) but scoff at the idea of paying that much for the all-time greats.

Whatever floats your boat I guess.
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Old 07-24-2011, 03:25 AM   #2 (permalink)
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The real question is how much will the Strasburg/Harper/Zimmerman auto Super go for? Some insane price I'm sure.
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Old 07-24-2011, 03:36 AM   #3 (permalink)
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You said it, HYPE. I see exactly what your seeing, and I dont understand it either. Probably never will. If I had to guess, Id just say its a flavor of the month type situation. The guy with the most money to burn, who knows everyone is dying to have the card is going to pay whatever it takes to own it.
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Old 07-24-2011, 05:05 AM   #4 (permalink)
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There's too many variations of top RC's on the market.
Even if you choose only 1 player to collect, you will never have all of his cards due to scarcity and $.
Some of these prices are just outrageous. I usually buy/collect anything numbered 50-100. Anything more scarce I have pulled by luck and are more often than not willing to unload in a trade or $.
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Old 07-24-2011, 07:50 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Anyone else realize that Harper cards sell for way more than Ruth, mantle, Gherig, DiMaggio, Koufax, Aaron, Jeter, Pujols, Nolan R., etc etc.

And the kid is in AA.

I just LOL at the whole notion of Prospect hype. I understand it, but think it's all but ridiculous.

People would pay $5k for a rare Harper card (or over 20k for strasburg, the Harper super will go for just as much) but scoff at the idea of paying that much for the all-time greats.

Whatever floats your boat I guess.

and thank all that's holy that people will pay insane $ amounts for hyped prospects........ or this "hobby" would have been dead years ago.

this is nothing new, i remember when the Billy Butler 2005 BC Super auto sold for $2k and people were having the same reaction as you.
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Old 07-24-2011, 08:26 AM   #6 (permalink)
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and thank all that's holy that people will pay insane $ amounts for hyped prospects........ or this "hobby" would have been dead years ago.

this is nothing new, i remember when the Billy Butler 2005 BC Super auto sold for $2k and people were having the same reaction as you.
disagree on the hobby being dead years ago, if it wasn;t for the HYPE, card companies would have been forced into actually putting out a decent well thought out product that isn;t watered down with no name scrub autos and EVENT used relics (but then again with the companies we have making cards, I guess your right, they woulda screwed it up and it woulda died)
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Old 07-24-2011, 10:57 AM   #7 (permalink)
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I agree man, the money being spent on an 18 year old in AA, who is batting .204 right now is insane....but you are right people are willing to throw around cash on him, but get conservative with proven greats like ruth, mantle, gehrig, etc.
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Old 07-24-2011, 10:59 AM   #8 (permalink)
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one reason is the prospect cards have room to grow and make you money if they preform.. the prices on the great ones are pretty much going stay close to where they are now they might move up and down some but not nowhere near as much as a prospect card can
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Old 07-24-2011, 11:08 AM   #9 (permalink)
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one reason is the prospect cards have room to grow and make you money if they preform.. the prices on the great ones are pretty much going stay close to where they are now they might move up and down some but not nowhere near as much as a prospect card can
Very valid point. We are all impatient. People want to cash in within 1-3 years instead of waiting 10-30 for vintage appreciation.
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Old 07-24-2011, 11:21 AM   #10 (permalink)
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That's a very good point. I am a prospector. While select prospect cards may be hot or worth a ton, the value always goes down. The only chrome auto that has never gone down is the Pujols. I remember David Price 08 chrome autos used to be up in the $90 range now you can get one $20-$30. And he's not even a bad player either. Lars Andrson chrome autos used to be up there, now you can get one next to nothing. The smart prospector never holds too long. I can bet you that unless Harper follows the same path of Pujols, then his Bowman autos will be alot less than the $300 they're selling for. They are already depreciating too. The point of my post is nothing in the prospect world stays up for ever. Except the Pujols... But that was the 1st bowman chrome auto set and there wasn't a ton of base, 500 Ref autos, 150 blue, 50 gold, 25 orange, 5 red, and a super. I believe there's just Ref and base.

As for legends. They will always be worth what they are now.. ALWAYS. Nothing can drop the value. They're dead and retired and in the hall. Legends are for the people who aren't looking to wait on a card and flip quickly and make a $
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Old 07-24-2011, 11:28 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Except the Pujols... But that was the 1st bowman chrome auto set and there wasn't a ton of base, 500 Ref autos, 150 blue, 50 gold, 25 orange, 5 red, and a super. I believe there's just Ref and base.
there is only the Refractor.......... and it was a redemption.......... and not all of them were redeemed.
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Old 07-24-2011, 11:31 AM   #12 (permalink)
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there is only the Refractor.......... and it was a redemption.......... and not all of them were redeemed.
Thank you. And if every prospect auto was only a refractor redemption then prices would stay higher and there would be no inflation
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Old 07-24-2011, 11:36 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Isnt he getting torched in AA right now?
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Old 07-24-2011, 11:37 AM   #14 (permalink)
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That's a very good point. I am a prospector. While select prospect cards may be hot or worth a ton, the value always goes down. The only chrome auto that has never gone down is the Pujols. I remember David Price 08 chrome autos used to be up in the $90 range now you can get one $20-$30. And he's not even a bad player either. Lars Andrson chrome autos used to be up there, now you can get one next to nothing. The smart prospector never holds too long. I can bet you that unless Harper follows the same path of Pujols, then his Bowman autos will be alot less than the $300 they're selling for. They are already depreciating too. The point of my post is nothing in the prospect world stays up for ever. Except the Pujols... But that was the 1st bowman chrome auto set and there wasn't a ton of base, 500 Ref autos, 150 blue, 50 gold, 25 orange, 5 red, and a super. I believe there's just Ref and base.

As for legends. They will always be worth what they are now.. ALWAYS. Nothing can drop the value. They're dead and retired and in the hall. Legends are for the people who aren't looking to wait on a card and flip quickly and make a $
Couldn't agree more...I was just thinking recently along the same lines.

I was reading somewhere that the last prospect that was this hyped and as much of a "sure thing" as Harper was JD Drew. Drew, for all his talent, has had a successful career as a very competent major leaguer...that's it..competent.

So let's say by some miracle, and its VERY unlikely, that Harper turns out to be as good as say Manny Ramirez...again, highly doubtful. Now I know its difficult to compare as the hobby and card variety was much different back then, but what's Manny's rookie card up to? 5k? I have some Donruss rookies of him I think book for about a dollar...even if those cards hadn't been over-produced crap, I doubt very much they would be worth a fortune. And if Harper turns out to be half as good as Ramirez, he'll have a good career. Craziness.

With all that said, I agree with the "praise all that is holy" sentiment above...I'll continue to unload my Bowman's Best Harper cards for $14 a pop...
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Old 07-24-2011, 12:03 PM   #15 (permalink)
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<--- owns 0 harper cards ive sold everyone ive touched
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Old 07-24-2011, 12:48 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Old 07-24-2011, 12:55 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Couldn't agree more...I was just thinking recently along the same lines.

I was reading somewhere that the last prospect that was this hyped and as much of a "sure thing" as Harper was JD Drew. Drew, for all his talent, has had a successful career as a very competent major leaguer...that's it..competent.

So let's say by some miracle, and its VERY unlikely, that Harper turns out to be as good as say Manny Ramirez...again, highly doubtful. Now I know its difficult to compare as the hobby and card variety was much different back then, but what's Manny's rookie card up to? 5k? I have some Donruss rookies of him I think book for about a dollar...even if those cards hadn't been over-produced crap, I doubt very much they would be worth a fortune. And if Harper turns out to be half as good as Ramirez, he'll have a good career. Craziness.

With all that said, I agree with the "praise all that is holy" sentiment above...I'll continue to unload my Bowman's Best Harper cards for $14 a pop...
What makes you say it would take a miracle for him to be as good as Manny? How many MLB scouts and GMs and people who actually deal with the sport, not just from a sportscard aspect, feel he will be a great player? You sell his BBest cards for $14? Good for you. As soon as you're involved with MLB farther than feeling up packs at Target, let us know what will take miracles to happen.
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Old 07-24-2011, 01:06 PM   #18 (permalink)
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and thank all that's holy that people will pay insane $ amounts for hyped prospects........ or this "hobby" would have been dead years ago.
QFT

Without the Harpers, Strasburgs, Bradfords, Tebows, (insert hockey guy) and (insert basketball guy) who would ever bust boxes or cases to sell? Nobody.
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Old 07-24-2011, 01:07 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Anyone else realize that Harper cards sell for way more than Ruth, mantle, Gherig, DiMaggio, Koufax, Aaron, Jeter, Pujols, Nolan R., etc etc.
I don't agree with this. If you compare apples to apples, those guys sell for as much, if not more, than Harper does. For every high dollar Harper sale, there are comparable high dollar sales of Mantle cards, Ruth cards, Pujols cards, etc. Now, if you want to compare a 2011 Harper Bowman RC with a 2011 Bowman Pujols, sure, Harper's RC sells for more. However, people pay big bucks for Pujols Bowman Chrome RC autos just like they do for the rarer parallel Harper Bowman RC autos.
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Old 07-24-2011, 01:14 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Anyone else realize that Harper cards sell for way more than Ruth, mantle, Gherig, DiMaggio, Koufax, Aaron, Jeter, Pujols, Nolan R., etc etc.

And the kid is in AA.

I just LOL at the whole notion of Prospect hype. I understand it, but think it's all but ridiculous.

People would pay $5k for a rare Harper card (or over 20k for strasburg, the Harper super will go for just as much) but scoff at the idea of paying that much for the all-time greats.

Whatever floats your boat I guess.
Spoken by a person with zero vision. You can not compare vintage with modern cards. They are two totally different things all together with very different buyers in the market place. Prospecting is very high risk/reward. You can not compare superfractors and low number parallels to vintage unless you take the population reports into account on the vintage. Let's take the highest graded Wagner for example, no modern card is anywhere near the value of it for many reasons. The rarity of the card in that condition being the main reason. You also need to look at the relatively new phenomenon of RC autographs. There has yet to be a manufacturing company certified RC auto of a Hall of Fame player. Pujols is a great example for this. His Bowman chrome RC auto /500 is undervalued IMO. Like it was stated above there are less than 500 copies and that is it for one of the best player ever. Barring any troubles for the remainder of his career, he is a lock for the Hall of Fame. If you have one of these when that happens it is sure to increase in value. If you have a highly graded copy then that will make it even more rare and sought after. Now with Harper, he is getting most of the hype right now but in time down the road the hype goes else where, just like it has done with previous players in the years before. Harper cards to not sell for more than the names you listed above. Every player's RC sells for more than Harper RC. If you want to talk autos, then most of the autograph cards of the above players also sell for more and the ones that do not are not first issue autos like the Harper is. People do pay crazy money for low numbered prospect cards but this did not start with Strasburg and Harper, nor will it end with them. People also pay a lot more for the names you listed above, for high graded RC copies without autograph because of the populations.
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Old 07-24-2011, 01:37 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Spoken by a person with zero vision. You can not compare vintage with modern cards. They are two totally different things all together with very different buyers in the market place. Prospecting is very high risk/reward. You can not compare superfractors and low number parallels to vintage unless you take the population reports into account on the vintage. Let's take the highest graded Wagner for example, no modern card is anywhere near the value of it for many reasons. The rarity of the card in that condition being the main reason. You also need to look at the relatively new phenomenon of RC autographs. There has yet to be a manufacturing company certified RC auto of a Hall of Fame player. Pujols is a great example for this. His Bowman chrome RC auto /500 is undervalued IMO. Like it was stated above there are less than 500 copies and that is it for one of the best player ever. Barring any troubles for the remainder of his career, he is a lock for the Hall of Fame. If you have one of these when that happens it is sure to increase in value. If you have a highly graded copy then that will make it even more rare and sought after. Now with Harper, he is getting most of the hype right now but in time down the road the hype goes else where, just like it has done with previous players in the years before. Harper cards to not sell for more than the names you listed above. Every player's RC sells for more than Harper RC. If you want to talk autos, then most of the autograph cards of the above players also sell for more and the ones that do not are not first issue autos like the Harper is. People do pay crazy money for low numbered prospect cards but this did not start with Strasburg and Harper, nor will it end with them. People also pay a lot more for the names you listed above, for high graded RC copies without autograph because of the populations.
Oh, I understand all of that completely.

However, the point is this:

The base auto harper started selling at nearly 1k at release. Now it's in the 300ish range.

Let's say he gets injured and never plays again. Then it's worth $4.

I just find it ludicrous that people will shell out loads of cash at the mere hope that a young unproven player will be the next Ken Griffey Jr.

I think it's smart to have a collection of prospects from each year, because some of them are the future of the MLB, but nothing is guaranteed and dropping significant $$$$ on a certain player just doesn't seem rational.

I see why people get crazed over Harper because he is incredibly talented, but it's just over the top. So, let's say he hits 350 hr his first 10 years in the bigs. His base RC auto still won't sell for 1k like it has upon release short few weeks ago.

"vision" and perspective and rationality are exactly what I have WCTYSON.

Do I have Harper in my PC? Yep, but did I drop wads of cash to get it and blow a load at the site of having his card? Nope.

Yes, people have paid more for a Harper on-card auto than they have for a Mickey Mantle on card auto. First issue, etc or not, what planet do you have to be from to do that?

One numb nuts had the audacity to have Harper sign next to Mantle on a ball.

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Old 07-24-2011, 01:39 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Anyone else realize that Harper cards sell for way more than Ruth, mantle, Gherig, DiMaggio, Koufax, Aaron, Jeter, Pujols, Nolan R., etc etc.

And the kid is in AA.

I just LOL at the whole notion of Prospect hype. I understand it, but think it's all but ridiculous.

People would pay $5k for a rare Harper card (or over 20k for strasburg, the Harper super will go for just as much) but scoff at the idea of paying that much for the all-time greats.

Whatever floats your boat I guess.
How do Harper cards sell for more than Ruth, Mantle, etc? What are you comparing? Harper's RC to Ruth GU? Try comparing apples to apples (maybe a granny smith to a red delicious) and find their RC cards with population #s as low as these harpers.

If Mickey Mantle had a 1/1 superfractor RC I gladly pay over 20k for it.

I guess this would have to suffice as a comparison:

1952 Topps Mickey Mantle Brings $275,000 - PCGS Library

$275k > $20k no?
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Old 07-24-2011, 01:46 PM   #23 (permalink)
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<--- owns 0 harper cards ive sold everyone ive touched
<--- owns 2 harper auto cards only because I got one for $200 and I got one with a pretty good auto to send to BGS and flip
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Old 07-24-2011, 01:53 PM   #24 (permalink)
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I don't agree with this. If you compare apples to apples, those guys sell for as much, if not more, than Harper does. For every high dollar Harper sale, there are comparable high dollar sales of Mantle cards, Ruth cards, Pujols cards, etc. Now, if you want to compare a 2011 Harper Bowman RC with a 2011 Bowman Pujols, sure, Harper's RC sells for more. However, people pay big bucks for Pujols Bowman Chrome RC autos just like they do for the rarer parallel Harper Bowman RC autos.
Yes, but in the perspective of MLB greats, who is Bryce Harper? Absolutely nobody.

And people are gambling at the hopes of him being the next Griffey, Pujols, Jeter, etc and paying more than what his card will be worth if he even lives up to that hope.

It's a better bet than other prospects, but the sell value of his cards blows my mind. I completely understand why he sells the way he does, but I also think it's completely irrational.
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Old 07-24-2011, 02:05 PM   #25 (permalink)
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How do Harper cards sell for more than Ruth, Mantle, etc? What are you comparing? Harper's RC to Ruth GU? Try comparing apples to apples (maybe a granny smith to a red delicious) and find their RC cards with population #s as low as these harpers.

If Mickey Mantle had a 1/1 superfractor RC I gladly pay over 20k for it.

I guess this would have to suffice as a comparison:

1952 Topps Mickey Mantle Brings $275,000 - PCGS Library

$275k > $20k no?
That isn't exactly what I meant. Anybody with 1/10 , of a brain can see that a high grade vintage rc is worth more.

More of what I meant is this:

An /50 Sandy Koufax on card auto goes for, let's say, 500.

Sandy is a legend, yet Bryce Harper is a nobody as far as the MLB is concerned because he has 0 MLB stats, and a Harper /50 auto sells for $3k because they hope he becomes a superstar, which in all likelihood, is improbable. More probable than other prospects, because of his obvious talent, but still unlikely.

Can people not see how illogical that is?


The most likely direction of the value of Harper cards is down, and down a lot from here. Yet, we have people praying for their financial sake that 2 years from now he we will shine with the best, let alone even make the cut at spring training and have a mediocre career.
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