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Old 04-11-2012, 03:13 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default 2012 Topps golden giveaway?

I have looked at a lot of different forums and nobody seems to be talking about it. Is this Topps' biggest scam or what? I have entered 800+ codes and have 38 base cards (odds 1:15 codes) and I should have closer to 50 based on odds. I can accept that the odds aren't perfect and 38 is a somewhat close # to the odds.

What I can't accept is the fact that I have put in 800+ codes and have not received a single gold parallel card (odds 1:200 codes). I find it hard to believe that out of 800+ codes I haven't hit a single gold card. I don't know anyone else that has either (there has to be someone!!). I won the set of 100 and was one of the first to 250 codes or whatever it was and I'm getting my set and a 1/1 card in June which is awesome but it doesn't really make sense that I haven't hit a gold card with the codes. I've tried to contact Topps customer support from their website, Topps customer support from the golden topps site, and emailed Mark sappir. Not a single one has written back to me. I also wrote them about the drawing that was suppose to take place on March 10th for the Ken Griffey Jr. auto card that I was suppose to receive an email about.

I know everyone hates Panini's customer service but has anyone else had this problem with the golden topps promotion? Also since I'm on a rant anyways, I sent in empty wrappers of 2012 topps for the redemption packs and it was "postmarked on or by February 29th" and I still haven't received those back either. Yet I noticed people selling them on ebay at the beginning of March. What's the turnaround on those? Why are mine taking so long? Can anyone help with this?
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Old 04-11-2012, 03:49 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Short answer: RNG is a bitch.

Long answer:
Probability is a bitch. (RNG stands for Random Number Generator and is a term I at least see used a lot when I play Kingdom of Loathing, but may or may not be used other places as well.)

Yes, it might technically be 1 in 24, but it's not like buying a box of cards where there is one auto in 24 packs. Assuming you buy that box sealed and the company has their quality control together, you are always going to get an auto in one of those 24 packs.

When you enter that code online, each time you enter a code, you have a 1 in 200 chance of getting a gold card. Just because you didn't get it the first 799 times doesn't mean that you have a better chance the 800th time. It sucks, but that's how it works. Thinking that you should have gotten 4 cards by now is the same logic that lets casinos take so much money from people. "Well I have a 50% chance of winning and have lost 5 times in a row so I'm due for a win - time to put all my money down!"

You've just gotten unlucky unfortunately.

Welcome to the boards though
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Old 04-11-2012, 03:59 PM   #3 (permalink)
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When stated 1:200 codes, that would mean 1 card per 200 codes on average. So when 200 codes have been used the odds are greater. I get what you're saying though. It's like saying a coin landing on heads is 1:2 but it could land on tails 4 times in a row. The next flip is still 1:2. Sure! But in this scenario it's different given the fact that there are a specified # of cards guaranteed out there. There is definately a certain # of 1/1's in the set, and a certain number of base cards, and a certain # of /60's. So when you print a million codes and then do the math of total # of cards possible, that's where the 1:200 comes from. So to lose against the odds by 4X is almost impossible. IMO, anyway. Does that make sense or am I just really confusing? lol
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Old 04-11-2012, 04:05 PM   #4 (permalink)
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It makes sense BUT, you have to consider the fact that you aren't the only one entering codes. Also, one code isn't specifically tied to a certain card. It only becomes something when it's entered. So, if you enter a code at one time you'll get something different than if you entered it 2 days (or even a few minutes) later.

The site may be churning out a gold card for every 200 codes entered, but that doesn't mean you're the one getting them.
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Old 04-11-2012, 04:14 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Bad luck to be sure but the casino analogy is a good one. I was in Vegas the other week & the roulette wheel had 8 in a row red numbers. Well it's close to a 50-50 every chance each spin that black will come up. Everyone thinks it is due so people throw lots on black. I throw a little on black. Well a red # hits spin 9. I know this con game so I lay off and watch as red hits on spin 10, then spin 11, then spin 12 as people keep throwing 100's on black. Then on spin 13 it finally hits black, then the next 3 spins are red again.
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Old 04-11-2012, 04:52 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joltedman View Post
What I can't accept is the fact that I have put in 800+ codes and have not received a single gold parallel card (odds 1:200 codes).
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Old 04-11-2012, 05:09 PM   #7 (permalink)
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well, the odds of *not* getting a gold are 199/200. Take that to the 800th power to show the odds of *not* winning for 800 codes, and you get: 1.81%

Looks like you are just unlucky, as about 1 in every 50 people entering 800 codes ends up with no golds.
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Old 04-11-2012, 05:24 PM   #8 (permalink)
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well, the odds of *not* getting a gold are 199/200. Take that to the 800th power to show the odds of *not* winning for 800 codes, and you get: 1.81%

Looks like you are just unlucky, as about 1 in every 50 people entering 800 codes ends up with no golds.
Let me get this straight.....out of 100% of people I'm in the bottom 1.81% right? FML!!! ahahhahaaaa

Really though has anyone else here hit any.
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Old 04-11-2012, 05:41 PM   #9 (permalink)
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400 codes entered.

18 base cards. No gold.

Luckily I too was one of the first to 250. Without that this promotion would be god awful. With our 1200 codes entered, not seeing a gold or a rare coin (to get the auto) basically tells me the odds are full of sh!t. At least so far.
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Old 04-11-2012, 05:46 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Isn't the griffey draw after the promotion in 2013?

Edit:
"Topps will conduct the drawing at its offices on or about 3/10/2013 from among all eligible entries received. Potential winners will be notified by e-mail"

Last edited by darin2200; 04-11-2012 at 05:48 PM.
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Old 04-11-2012, 05:54 PM   #11 (permalink)
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The thing I am upset about, is it has been over 2 months since I earned and "redeemed" the three $10 shopptopps.com credit, and I have not recieved the emails with the codes yet.
The part that really sucks is they are out of the Topps Magic packs on ShoppTopps.com now, which were the only good way to use them. Nothing else will allow changing the shipping to the cheap USPS $3 shipping.
I emailed customer support at topps two days ago, no response yet.

Anyone else waited a long time for the codes to arrive?
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Old 04-11-2012, 05:55 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by phabphour20 View Post
400 codes entered.

18 base cards. No gold.

Luckily I too was one of the first to 250. Without that this promotion would be god awful. With our 1200 codes entered, not seeing a gold or a rare coin (to get the auto) basically tells me the odds are full of sh!t. At least so far.
yep - now we're talking 0.2% chance of 1200 independent codes not yielding one gold card. Of course there's some selection bias here too.
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Old 04-11-2012, 06:14 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by darin2200 View Post
The thing I am upset about, is it has been over 2 months since I earned and "redeemed" the three $10 shopptopps.com credit, and I have not recieved the emails with the codes yet.
The part that really sucks is they are out of the Topps Magic packs on ShoppTopps.com now, which were the only good way to use them. Nothing else will allow changing the shipping to the cheap USPS $3 shipping.
I emailed customer support at topps two days ago, no response yet.

Anyone else waited a long time for the codes to arrive?
I won a $10 gift certificate last week and have not seen an email. Shouldn't these be instant?
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Old 04-11-2012, 06:24 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darin2200 View Post
The thing I am upset about, is it has been over 2 months since I earned and "redeemed" the three $10 shopptopps.com credit, and I have not recieved the emails with the codes yet.
The part that really sucks is they are out of the Topps Magic packs on ShoppTopps.com now, which were the only good way to use them. Nothing else will allow changing the shipping to the cheap USPS $3 shipping.
I emailed customer support at topps two days ago, no response yet.

Anyone else waited a long time for the codes to arrive?
Same with me. Have never seen them. Maybe we need to check our spam folders...
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Old 04-11-2012, 07:20 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I called topps customer service yesterday about my $10 cards. Never got them for Diamond, SuperBowl Legends or Golden. Did receive 2 today. Entered 350 codes no Gold either. So lets do the math 1200 +800+ 350 no Gold. I'm thinking the computer programming is screwed up. And why don't Topps take down the first two hundred thing since it is no longer valid. Didn't get the prize. And if someone calls Topps customer service ask to talk to the girl that graduated from IU. Seems I always get my problem fixxed when I talk to her. And as far as emailing customer service BIG WASTE OF TIME. Has yet to ever receive a reply
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Old 04-11-2012, 07:30 PM   #16 (permalink)
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I've entered a total of 6 codes on the Golden Giveaway site. I got a Jackie Robinson Gold card upon entering the 6th code yesterday and chose to have it shipped. I was excited when I hit it but didn't know the odds were as astronomical as they are. After reading this thread I feel pretty lucky to have hit it. I participated in the Diamond Giveaway pretty heavily and am taking it easy on the Golden Giveaway. So far so good it appears.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:14 PM   #17 (permalink)
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sold three 10-card lots this morning, every buyer hit a gold card...
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:19 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I just bought 20 codes for fun after the Darvish and Cespedes announcement.

Entered them... 1 card. GOLD Jose Reyes.

Funny.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:19 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darin2200 View Post
Isn't the griffey draw after the promotion in 2013?

Edit:
"Topps will conduct the drawing at its offices on or about 3/10/2013 from among all eligible entries received. Potential winners will be notified by e-mail"
ohhhhhhhhhhh, well crap that part makes sense then. lol.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:21 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darin2200 View Post
The thing I am upset about, is it has been over 2 months since I earned and "redeemed" the three $10 shopptopps.com credit, and I have not recieved the emails with the codes yet.
The part that really sucks is they are out of the Topps Magic packs on ShoppTopps.com now, which were the only good way to use them. Nothing else will allow changing the shipping to the cheap USPS $3 shipping.
I emailed customer support at topps two days ago, no response yet.

Anyone else waited a long time for the codes to arrive?
Yes, I thought I was the only one. lol. I have emailed them about that also.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:23 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phabphour20 View Post
I just bought 20 codes for fun after the Darvish and Cespedes announcement.

Entered them... 1 card. GOLD Jose Reyes.

Funny.

NICE. Is that the 24k gold version?
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:23 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Same with me. Have never seen them. Maybe we need to check our spam folders...
couldn't be that because I made a special email just for the golden giveaway. The only emails I have in there is one from topps saying "we will respond to your email within 48 hours" or something to that effect and the email from Mark stating I won the golden set or whatever.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:25 PM   #23 (permalink)
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So basically they "release" the cards whenever they want to? Because I haven't seen a single on on ebay since the golden codes thing started. Well, there was a babe ruth gold card but I think it was a fake or the seller was confused. I don't know. Seems like yesterday after making this thread was the right time to start entering codes or something.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:30 PM   #24 (permalink)
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NICE. Is that the 24k gold version?
No, just the gold parallel version.

I just tossed it up on eBay. $0.99 auction. Bring the heat Jose!
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:41 PM   #25 (permalink)
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BTW has anyone received their $10 off coupon fromt he golden giveaway. I won all 3 and still h ave not received it yet. It's been about a month.
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