2012 Bowman Jumbo Odds - 4-Level of Prospects/Rookie Autos

[Rufusyo]

To the OP. thanks for posting this info.

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by zw15

Jumbo:
Kyle Simon Blue ref.
Joc Pederson auto
Nick Delmonico auto
Nick Maronde Blue Auto
Danny Hultzen Red Ice

Hobby:
Oscar Taveras Auto - Let's hope he is top tiered!

This gives me a $#@% ton of hope. Taveras and Delmonico are studs. Based on odds, these guys are more than likely in group A.

[bhavr]

I bought 2 bowman hobby boxes regular looks like I'm screwed.

[johnorpheus]

Base on op's info, the autos he pulled, and color odds, jumbo looks absolutely amazing this year.

[BoxBreaker72]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

not necessarily true, as the first tier may have 25 signers and last one maybe 1 for all we know

again, every product has tiers and sp
not everyone signs same amount of cards
even guys in same groups sign different amounts

ever open EEE, the numbering crazy and then some have inserts/parallels to boot

True, but take last years bowman chrome for example. You had just as much of a chance to hit a Harper auto as you did a Brandon Laird auto.

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

Base on op's info, the autos he pulled, and color odds, jumbo looks absolutely amazing this year.

Even though that Hultzen red ice is the best card pulled haha, that will pull 60+ right now.

Cautiously optimistic about my two cases, hoping its three prospect autos per box, but the odds don't match up for rookie autos being additional hits, as prospect auto odds seem to be about 2 per box. Something doesn't add up...

[greenjdo]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

color autos are easier...
not too concerned with autos being tiered as in color it does not matter
and i think they always have been tiered in a way, maybe not huge, but i open enough qty to see that i get 25 of one guy and 10 of another, or what not

this is one guy that will open enough to hit a Group D!!

[seancoyle]

He had a decent box, that doesn't necessarily give it product of the year.

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

Base on op's info, the autos he pulled, and color odds, jumbo looks absolutely amazing this year.

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by seancoyle

He had a decent box, that doesn't necessarily give it product of the year.

Right, but three prospect autos plus great color odds are making it look good right now.

[johnorpheus]

Op, love to see some scans if you can get 'em.

[seancoyle]

No argument there.

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

Right, but three prospect autos plus great color odds are making it look good right now.

[S.Gallagherfan6]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

Op, love to see some scans if you can get 'em.

Ya me too. wondering how the autos look with a silver border like how it was on the sell sheet or do they have just the white.

[chadc13]

When should be have a idea who is in what tier?

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

Right, but three prospect autos plus great color odds are making it look good right now.

Calculate the odds one more time, it seems like rooke autos take the place of a prospect auto every third box or so.

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by Ajax1723

Calculate the odds one more time, it seems like rooke autos take the place of a prospect auto every third box or so.

I didn't look at that yet. But that would make sense.

[fctryseald]

Pulled the trigger on a $1150 jumbo case. Based on what I'm reading here pushed me over the edge. I hope the four hobby cases I have coming aren't as bad as everyone is speculating.

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

I didn't look at that yet. But that would make sense.

Did the odds, you should get a 3.724 rookie autos per jumbo case, so roughly one every other box.

[zw15]

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by zw15

Sweet, thanks.

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

I didn't look at that yet. But that would make sense.

Odds are as follows:

19.3 prospect autos per case
3.724 rookie autos per case
.641 additional hit autos per case.

Judging on the odds, there's only 23.024 regular autos per case, so there must be some rounding of odds somewhere, cause the additional hits don't count.

And those cards look good!

[BCA-Jim]

Thanks for posting the odds and the pics! I've got 27 jumbo cases coming in...should be fun!

[trixstar]

Hultzen looks sick

[MSD]

So Bowman Jumbos the way to go?

Thanks OP, was going to get a bunch of hobby for the wrappers, guess its jumbo now

[georgewashinton]

Chrome Prospects Auto:
Group A: 1:42
Group B: 1:1,118
Group C: 1:1,289
Group D: 1:1,672

Chrome Autograph Rookies:
Group A: 1:2275
Group B: 1:556

Holy Crap! How is there that much disparity between Group A and all the others?!? It looks like Topps scrambled and tried to avoid releasing a garbage product at the last moment of production. If the top 10 or so autos are in Group B, C, or D this product will be a disaster, only it will be one I and probably most people didn't see coming. Makes me sick to my stomach.

[georgewashinton]

Originally Posted by gamboooler

I just thought of this... don't know why I didn't think of it earlier...

But if they're pimping Cole, Hultzen, and Rendon AND the OP's odds are true, does anyone think Rendon is B, Hultzen is C, and Cole is D? If so, I would be fine with that.

Good point. Hopefully there is only one or two players each in groups B, C, & D. That would bring the odds for them much closer to the odds of getting any one player from group A. Meltdown averted.