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Old 05-07-2012, 12:43 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default 2012 Bowman - quick observations and compared auto odds

*It appears there will be 3 prospects autos in 2/3 of jumbo, so that would explain why the color odds are so much better.

Summary:

Prospect autos are tiered into 4 groups, and based on the extremely disproportionate odds, group A is likely made up of 25-30 signers and group B-D made up of 13 - 8 signers. Aflac autos will fall about every other jumbo case. Bowman black, about 1 in 8 jumbo cases. Based on box break info, names like Oscar Taveras may be in group A.

Auto Color Odds compared with 2011:

HOBBY (2011 in bold)

Ref.: 1:132 1:119
Blue: 1:429 1:394
Gold: 1:1300 1:1210
Orange: 1:2600 1:2382
Red: 1:13,000 1:11,910
Super: 1:60,000 1:57,850

JUMBO (2011 in bold)

Ref.: 1:24 1:30
Blue: 1:77 1:101
Gold: 1:230 1:312
Orange: 1:460 1:587
Red: 1:2,315 1:2975
Purple: 1:824
Super: 1:11,400 1:14,632
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Old 05-07-2012, 01:05 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Here are jumbo color odds compared to 2010
JUMBO (2010 in bold)

Ref.: 1:24 1:24
Blue: 1:77 1:80
Gold: 1:230 1:240
Orange: 1:460 1:479
Red: 1:2,315 1:2400
Purple: 1:824
Super: 1:11,400 1:11,900
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Old 05-07-2012, 01:27 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnorpheus View Post
Here are jumbo color odds compared to 2010
JUMBO (2010 in bold)

Ref.: 1:24 1:24
Blue: 1:77 1:80
Gold: 1:230 1:240
Orange: 1:460 1:479
Red: 1:2,315 1:2400
Purple: 1:824
Super: 1:11,400 1:11,900
Here are the odds for the autos overall:

19.3 prospect autos per case
3.724 rookie autos per case

Looks like roughly every other box, but those two only add up to around 23 autos per case, so I wonder where the other one is, because there should be 24 per.
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Old 05-07-2012, 01:29 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ajax1723 View Post
Here are the odds for the autos overall:

19.3 prospect autos per case
3.724 rookie autos per case

Looks like roughly every other box, but those two only add up to around 23 autos per case, so I wonder where the other one is, because there should be 24 per.
Ok, cool....
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Old 05-07-2012, 02:43 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Here's what a typical jumbo case should look like based on the odds:

Prospect autos: 1 gold or better auto, 1- 2 blue autos, 4 refractor autos, 13-14 base autos
Rookie autos: 1 refractor auto and 3 base autos, blue autos: 1 in 2 cases, gold or better: 1 in 4 5 cases
Refractors: 10 11, blue: 5- 6, gold: 1 2, orange: a little better than 1 in 2 cases
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Old 05-07-2012, 09:27 AM   #6 (permalink)
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this is all because one person said these are the odds i still dont believe it, if so hobby sucks this year big time
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Old 05-07-2012, 09:51 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by 21taylor21-0911 View Post
this is all because one person said these are the odds i still dont believe it, if so hobby sucks this year big time
Well, those are the odds directly from the wrappers. He opened one jumbo box and 1 hobby, and posted results. Those are the odds. And yes, hobby did get the shaft this year based on the odds posted.
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Old 05-07-2012, 09:53 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnorpheus View Post
Here are jumbo color odds compared to 2010
JUMBO (2010 in bold)

Ref.: 1:24 1:24
Blue: 1:77 1:80
Gold: 1:230 1:240
Orange: 1:460 1:479
Red: 1:2,315 1:2400
Purple: 1:824
Super: 1:11,400 1:11,900
Will be like 2010 prices then?? Wait to see how it breaks down. Someone should be getting them today?
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Old 05-07-2012, 09:55 AM   #9 (permalink)
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So where are all the folks who said that this would be the GREATEST product busted ever known to man.

Sucks that Topps tiered the autos, guess we will have to see who is in what tier, but I think we kind of already know the answer.

The large auto checklist had me wondering about the print run, but it would appear that jumbo cases are pretty decent, but hobby are not the way to go.
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Old 05-07-2012, 09:58 AM   #10 (permalink)
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this is all because one person said these are the odds i still dont believe it, if so hobby sucks this year big time
I would say they are right. I say this because he is the same guy that posted 2011 Bowman last years odds. Just type in 2011 bowman jumbo odds. You should find his thread. So jumbo is the way to go.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:04 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
So where are all the folks who said that this would be the GREATEST product busted ever known to man.

Sucks that Topps tiered the autos, guess we will have to see who is in what tier, but I think we kind of already know the answer.

The large auto checklist had me wondering about the print run, but it would appear that jumbo cases are pretty decent, but hobby are not the way to go.
Jumbo looks great this year. 3 prospect autos in most boxes and great color. You're right, hobby is not the way to go at all. Topps really favored jumbo over hobby this year by a huge margin.

The tiered autos still have me worried, but if I had to guess I'd say Rendon, Hultzen, Cole, and maybe one other guy are the ssp autos. I say this because Oscar Taveras was pulled out of single hobby box last night, so the odds are pretty good he is a group A. And he is one of the top names in this set.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:13 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Will be like 2010 prices then?? Wait to see how it breaks down. Someone should be getting them today?
Sorry, I think 2010 Strasburg-type hype is still the missing ingredient from this year's Bowman
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:16 AM   #13 (permalink)
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man this sucks got a few cases of hobby o well i guess it takes luck to get anything anyways either i get something good or i dont doesnt really matter about odds its all luck
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:23 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Are rookie odds better with hobby then? Just seems like in jumbo prospect autos greater outnumber rookie autos in 2012 (5:1 ratio) unlike 2011 where it was a 2:1 ratio.

Reason being the biggest chase card will likely be the Darvish rookie auto. Or are rookie autos also inserted at a similar ratio in hobby?
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:25 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Jon_21 View Post
Are rookie odds better with hobby then? Just seems like in jumbo prospect autos greater outnumber rookie autos in 2012 (5:1 ratio) unlike 2011 where it was a 2:1 ratio.

Reason being the biggest chase card will likely be the Darvish rookie auto. Or are rookie autos also inserted at a similar ratio in hobby?

good question
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:25 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Brentandbecca said the tiered auto thing has always been the case in a way. Just not broken down on the wrapper in years past. I will reserve judgement until they announce who they put where. Jumbo looks solid this year.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:26 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Rufusyo View Post
I will reserve judgement until they announce who they put where.
Probably not gonna happen. I already asked a Topps rep, and they won't say.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:32 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Probably not gonna happen. I already asked a Topps rep, and they won't say.
Well in that case I guess we will just have to wait for the first set of breaks.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:41 AM   #19 (permalink)
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they havent released tier information for the last few products, doubt they will for this
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:53 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Rufusyo View Post
Brentandbecca said the tiered auto thing has always been the case in a way. Just not broken down on the wrapper in years past. I will reserve judgement until they announce who they put where. Jumbo looks solid this year.
This is true. Also, think about it this way. Tier B - D autos will likely fall 1 - 2 per jumbo case. So if it is a few names, they are not shortprinted to anywhere near Lawrie/Hosmer/Ackley/Turner levels.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:53 AM   #21 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by 21taylor21-0911 View Post
good question
It looks like Rookie Autos will fall roughly one per 2 cases in Hobby, maybe every other. A regular Hobby auto is every 556 packs, ore one every 2 cases roughly. Factor in the other colors and such, looks like every other case.

Hobby got shafted this year. It could even be that the box that has the rookie auto is the only auto you get. Jumbos all the way this year.
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Last edited by Ajax1723; 05-07-2012 at 10:57 AM.
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Old 05-07-2012, 05:30 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajax1723 View Post
It looks like Rookie Autos will fall roughly one per 2 cases in Hobby, maybe every other. A regular Hobby auto is every 556 packs, ore one every 2 cases roughly. Factor in the other colors and such, looks like every other case.

Hobby got shafted this year. It could even be that the box that has the rookie auto is the only auto you get. Jumbos all the way this year.
Ugh...wasn't it like one rookie auto in every 3-4 boxes last year of hobby
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Old 05-07-2012, 05:52 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pkscards View Post
Ugh...wasn't it like one rookie auto in every 3-4 boxes last year of hobby
Yea about every 3 boxes of hobby last year.
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Old 05-07-2012, 06:57 PM   #24 (permalink)
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So what may end up happening is the Jumbo prices go through the roof and it will end up cheaper to pick up Hobby? That might be the way to go depending on price differential.
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Old 05-07-2012, 06:58 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Sell hobby, buy jumbo. That sums it up in a sentence. The market should end up reflecting with a large price disparity between the two. But right now, hobby at $800 and jumbo at under $1200 is not reflective of the drastic difference in value.
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