2012 Bowman - quick observations.

[johnorpheus]

*It appears there will be 3 prospects autos in 2/3 of jumbo, so that would explain why the color odds are so much better.

Summary:

Prospect autos are tiered into 4 groups, and based on the extremely disproportionate odds, group A is likely made up of 25-30 signers and group B-D made up of 13 - 8 signers. Aflac autos will fall about every other jumbo case. Bowman black, about 1 in 8 jumbo cases. Based on box break info, names like Oscar Taveras may be in group A.

Auto Color Odds compared with 2011:

HOBBY (2011 in bold)

Ref.: 1:132 1:119
Blue: 1:429 1:394
Gold: 1:1300 1:1210
Orange: 1:2600 1:2382
Red: 1:13,000 1:11,910
Super: 1:60,000 1:57,850

JUMBO (2011 in bold)

Ref.: 1:24 1:30
Blue: 1:77 1:101
Gold: 1:230 1:312
Orange: 1:460 1:587
Red: 1:2,315 1:2975
Purple: 1:824
Super: 1:11,400 1:14,632

[johnorpheus]

Here are jumbo color odds compared to 2010
JUMBO (2010 in bold)

Ref.: 1:24 1:24
Blue: 1:77 1:80
Gold: 1:230 1:240
Orange: 1:460 1:479
Red: 1:2,315 1:2400
Purple: 1:824
Super: 1:11,400 1:11,900

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

Here are jumbo color odds compared to 2010
JUMBO (2010 in bold)

Ref.: 1:24 1:24
Blue: 1:77 1:80
Gold: 1:230 1:240
Orange: 1:460 1:479
Red: 1:2,315 1:2400
Purple: 1:824
Super: 1:11,400 1:11,900

Here are the odds for the autos overall:

19.3 prospect autos per case
3.724 rookie autos per case

Looks like roughly every other box, but those two only add up to around 23 autos per case, so I wonder where the other one is, because there should be 24 per.

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by Ajax1723

Here are the odds for the autos overall:

19.3 prospect autos per case
3.724 rookie autos per case

Looks like roughly every other box, but those two only add up to around 23 autos per case, so I wonder where the other one is, because there should be 24 per.

Ok, cool....

[johnorpheus]

Here's what a typical jumbo case should look like based on the odds:

Prospect autos: 1 gold or better auto, 1- 2 blue autos, 4 refractor autos, 13-14 base autos
Rookie autos: 1 refractor auto and 3 base autos, blue autos: 1 in 2 cases, gold or better: 1 in 4– 5 cases
Refractors: 10– 11, blue: 5- 6, gold: 1 – 2, orange: a little better than 1 in 2 cases

[21taylor21-0911]

this is all because one person said these are the odds i still dont believe it, if so hobby sucks this year big time

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by 21taylor21-0911

this is all because one person said these are the odds i still dont believe it, if so hobby sucks this year big time

Well, those are the odds directly from the wrappers. He opened one jumbo box and 1 hobby, and posted results. Those are the odds. And yes, hobby did get the shaft this year based on the odds posted.

[itsinthecards]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

Here are jumbo color odds compared to 2010
JUMBO (2010 in bold)

Ref.: 1:24 1:24
Blue: 1:77 1:80
Gold: 1:230 1:240
Orange: 1:460 1:479
Red: 1:2,315 1:2400
Purple: 1:824
Super: 1:11,400 1:11,900

Will be like 2010 prices then?? Wait to see how it breaks down. Someone should be getting them today?

[bigsmoot2]

So where are all the folks who said that this would be the GREATEST product busted ever known to man.

Sucks that Topps tiered the autos, guess we will have to see who is in what tier, but I think we kind of already know the answer.

The large auto checklist had me wondering about the print run, but it would appear that jumbo cases are pretty decent, but hobby are not the way to go.

[itsinthecards]

Originally Posted by 21taylor21-0911

this is all because one person said these are the odds i still dont believe it, if so hobby sucks this year big time

I would say they are right. I say this because he is the same guy that posted 2011 Bowman last years odds. Just type in 2011 bowman jumbo odds. You should find his thread. So jumbo is the way to go.

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by bigsmoot2

So where are all the folks who said that this would be the GREATEST product busted ever known to man.

Sucks that Topps tiered the autos, guess we will have to see who is in what tier, but I think we kind of already know the answer.

The large auto checklist had me wondering about the print run, but it would appear that jumbo cases are pretty decent, but hobby are not the way to go.

Jumbo looks great this year. 3 prospect autos in most boxes and great color. You're right, hobby is not the way to go at all. Topps really favored jumbo over hobby this year by a huge margin.

The tiered autos still have me worried, but if I had to guess I'd say Rendon, Hultzen, Cole, and maybe one other guy are the ssp autos. I say this because Oscar Taveras was pulled out of single hobby box last night, so the odds are pretty good he is a group A. And he is one of the top names in this set.

[ReinholdMessner]

Originally Posted by itsinthecards

Will be like 2010 prices then?? Wait to see how it breaks down. Someone should be getting them today?

Sorry, I think 2010 Strasburg-type hype is still the missing ingredient from this year's Bowman

[21taylor21-0911]

man this sucks got a few cases of hobby o well i guess it takes luck to get anything anyways either i get something good or i dont doesnt really matter about odds its all luck

[Jon_21]

Are rookie odds better with hobby then? Just seems like in jumbo prospect autos greater outnumber rookie autos in 2012 (5:1 ratio) unlike 2011 where it was a 2:1 ratio.

Reason being the biggest chase card will likely be the Darvish rookie auto. Or are rookie autos also inserted at a similar ratio in hobby?

[21taylor21-0911]

Originally Posted by Jon_21

Are rookie odds better with hobby then? Just seems like in jumbo prospect autos greater outnumber rookie autos in 2012 (5:1 ratio) unlike 2011 where it was a 2:1 ratio.

Reason being the biggest chase card will likely be the Darvish rookie auto. Or are rookie autos also inserted at a similar ratio in hobby?

good question

[Rufusyo]

Brentandbecca said the tiered auto thing has always been the case in a way. Just not broken down on the wrapper in years past. I will reserve judgement until they announce who they put where. Jumbo looks solid this year.

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by Rufusyo

I will reserve judgement until they announce who they put where.

Probably not gonna happen. I already asked a Topps rep, and they won't say.

[Rufusyo]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Probably not gonna happen. I already asked a Topps rep, and they won't say.

Well in that case I guess we will just have to wait for the first set of breaks.

[anusinha]

they havent released tier information for the last few products, doubt they will for this

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by Rufusyo

Brentandbecca said the tiered auto thing has always been the case in a way. Just not broken down on the wrapper in years past. I will reserve judgement until they announce who they put where. Jumbo looks solid this year.

This is true. Also, think about it this way. Tier B - D autos will likely fall 1 - 2 per jumbo case. So if it is a few names, they are not shortprinted to anywhere near Lawrie/Hosmer/Ackley/Turner levels.

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by 21taylor21-0911

good question

It looks like Rookie Autos will fall roughly one per 2 cases in Hobby, maybe every other. A regular Hobby auto is every 556 packs, ore one every 2 cases roughly. Factor in the other colors and such, looks like every other case.

Hobby got shafted this year. It could even be that the box that has the rookie auto is the only auto you get. Jumbos all the way this year.

[pkscards]

Originally Posted by Ajax1723

It looks like Rookie Autos will fall roughly one per 2 cases in Hobby, maybe every other. A regular Hobby auto is every 556 packs, ore one every 2 cases roughly. Factor in the other colors and such, looks like every other case.

Hobby got shafted this year. It could even be that the box that has the rookie auto is the only auto you get. Jumbos all the way this year.

Ugh...wasn't it like one rookie auto in every 3-4 boxes last year of hobby

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by pkscards

Ugh...wasn't it like one rookie auto in every 3-4 boxes last year of hobby

Yea about every 3 boxes of hobby last year.

[dawger13]

So what may end up happening is the Jumbo prices go through the roof and it will end up cheaper to pick up Hobby? That might be the way to go depending on price differential.

[johnorpheus]

Sell hobby, buy jumbo. That sums it up in a sentence. The market should end up reflecting with a large price disparity between the two. But right now, hobby at $800 and jumbo at under $1200 is not reflective of the drastic difference in value.