NL CY YOUNG

[Swingman]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

Ian Kennedy, last year, 1st in wins, 4th in Cy Young award voting.

Yes first in wins but not top 5 in anything else..

[calculusdork]

Gonzalez' run support total is going to hang like an anchor around his neck though, regardless of whether he leads the NL in wins and regardless of whether or not it is truly the reason for his win total.

[Swingman]

Don't worry, Gio pitches on national television is a huge division game vs the Braves on Sunday... Talk to me then after you get a good look..

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

Come on now. If you think it's a two-man race between Dickey and Gio and I think it's a two-man race between Dickey and Cueto, how is it fair if you get your top two choices and I don't get mine? I'd have to kick my own ass if I took that bet.

I said it before and I'll say it again: for someone who's been tooting Gio's horn so much in this race, it's awfully fishy that you come to me with a bet that you hedge with Dickey. If you really wanted to put your money where your mouth is, you'd bet Gio flat out.

You said you've got Cueto ahead of Dickey, so you get Cueto and I get Dickey. You said you've got Kershaw ahead of Gio so I give you Kershaw and I get Gio. Then I give you the rest of the NL for fun. You are getting 4 of the top 6 including your favorite and still won't do it, you're scared to put up the money point blank.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Swingman

Yes first in wins but not top 5 in anything else..

Gio Gonzalez, 2012, first in wins, 6th in ERA, 6th in WHIP, somewhere-outside-the-top-10 in innings pitched.

[Swingman]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Gonzalez' run support total is going to hang like an anchor around his neck though, regardless of whether he leads the NL in wins and regardless of whether or not it is truly the reason for his win total.

Gio Won 15+ in the AL last two years with Oakland, the most pathetic hitting team I have seen in a long time.. It's no coincidence my friend, run support or not, he gets it done.

[Metsfan1121]

Originally Posted by Swingman

Your referring to AL once again.. Check the last couple of years in the NL, 1st in wins didn't win Cy Young all but 1 time that they gave it to Lincecum and he was 2nd in wins.

18 wins, 5 starts left, if Gio wins 22/23 your crazy to think he doesn't get Cy Young.

First of all, the same people who vote for AL Cy Young vote for NL Cy Young. Since 2000, of the 12 NL cy winners, 5 led the NL in wins.

[Metsfan1121]

I'll do a $15 PayPal bet straight up dickey vs gio. If Cueto wins we split.

[Swingman]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

Gio Gonzalez, 2012, first in wins, 6th in ERA, 6th in WHIP, somewhere-outside-the-top-10 in innings pitched.

Oh is the season over? I didn't realize.. He's .02 away from Cain, scoreless first 2 innings and they are tied pal. .02 away from Lohse in whip. Your talking insignificant margin of numbers. Talk to me about Cueto, 15th in strikeouts, 9th in WHIP. Gio can make up his numbers, Cueto can't.

[Swingman]

Originally Posted by Metsfan1121

I'll do a $15 PayPal bet straight up dickey vs gio. If Cueto wins we split.

If you look back and read which you probably don't, I am agreeing Dickey is in the lead for the Cy Young. There is a lot of baseball left though. This is a 3 man race right now. Dickey-Gio-Cueto, JC hurt his chances with a loss to the Astros only pitching a few innings and giving up 4. Gio pitches another gem tonight and Dickey gets roughed up by the Nats tomorrow and this is a whole new situation.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Swingman

Gio Won 15+ in the AL last two years with Oakland, the most pathetic hitting team I have seen in a long time.. It's no coincidence my friend, run support or not, he gets it done.

Please don't think I'm disagreeing with you. He gets it done. But the moment someone on ESPN says "... but he's 3rd in the NL in run support", it will be over for him, even if he manages to finish 1st in wins and 5th in ERA/WHIP.

[Metsfan1121]

Originally Posted by Swingman

If you look back and read which you probably don't, I am agreeing Dickey is in the lead for the Cy Young. There is a lot of baseball left though. This is a 3 man race right now. Dickey-Gio-Cueto, JC hurt his chances with a loss to the Astros only pitching a few innings and giving up 4. Gio pitches another gem tonight and Dickey gets roughed up by the Nats tomorrow and this is a whole new situation.

You propose a fair bet than.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Swingman

Oh is the season over? I didn't realize.. He's .02 away from Cain, scoreless first 2 innings and they are tied pal. .02 away from Lohse in whip. Your talking insignificant margin of numbers. Talk to me about Cueto, 15th in strikeouts, 9th in WHIP. Gio can make up his numbers, Cueto can't.

I'm not saying he can't make it up, but if that's what he looks like in the standings at the end of the year, it'll put him in roughly the same spot as Ian Kennedy last year, who, despite leading the NL in wins, finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Gio47

You said you've got Cueto ahead of Dickey, so you get Cueto and I get Dickey. You said you've got Kershaw ahead of Gio so I give you Kershaw and I get Gio. Then I give you the rest of the NL for fun. You are getting 4 of the top 6 including your favorite and still won't do it, you're scared to put up the money point blank.

From last week:

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

I hear ya, I happen to like Gio a lot (and not just because I found out you're related to him, which is very cool, BTW) and I'd pick him to anchor my rotation in the long-term over Cueto, Dickey, and even Hamels and Cain to some degree. But from April 2012 to September 2012, Cueto and Dickey have shown they're just a little better. It's really a two-man race right now with Kershaw nipping at their heels. After Clayton, things start to get murky.

Read this. Now read it again. Cueto and Dickey are my top two choices to win this award. I think Clayton has an outside shot too. If I were a betting man (and I'm not), I'd bet that one of those three guys would win. But that's not a very fun bet, is it? So why you've granted yourself Dickey in this bet -- wait, where in this thread did I say I wanted to put money on this? Nevermind, it's not important.

I am still very amused with the fact that you are hedging your bet with Dickey. If I took your bet and Dickey ended up winning, you could conveniently ignore the fact that Gio did not win despite you hyping him up all this time and simply take my money. Which is fine, I guess.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

From last week:



Read this. Now read it again. Cueto and Dickey are my top two choices to win this award. I think Clayton has an outside shot too. If I were a betting man (and I'm not), I'd bet that one of those three guys would win. But that's not a very fun bet, is it? So why you've granted yourself Dickey in this bet -- wait, where in this thread did I say I wanted to put money on this? Nevermind, it's not important.

I am still very amused with the fact that you are hedging your bet with Dickey. If I took your bet and Dickey ended up winning, you could conveniently ignore the fact that Gio did not win despite you hyping him up all this time and simply take my money. Which is fine, I guess.

You are just dodging the point here. You said you had Cueto ahead of Dickey and that you like Kershaw better than Gio. I am giving you both and taking the two guys you have behind them. PLUS I am giving you the rest of the NL. If you really believed what you said, you'd do it. You aren't a gambling man and won't put your money where your mouth is, it's cool we move on. I have been hyping Gio but I do think Dickey is slightly ahead right now.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Gio47

You are just dodging the point here. You said you had Cueto ahead of Dickey and that you like Kershaw better than Gio. I am giving you both and taking the two guys you have behind them. PLUS I am giving you the rest of the NL. If you really believed what you said, you'd do it. You aren't a gambling man and won't put your money where your mouth is, it's cool we move on. I have been hyping Gio but I do think Dickey is slightly ahead right now.

I know this is hard, but I need you to work with me here for like, one second.

Please read this one more time:

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

I hear ya, I happen to like Gio a lot (and not just because I found out you're related to him, which is very cool, BTW) and I'd pick him to anchor my rotation in the long-term over Cueto, Dickey, and even Hamels and Cain to some degree. But from April 2012 to September 2012, Cueto and Dickey have shown they're just a little better. It's really a two-man race right now with Kershaw nipping at their heels. After Clayton, things start to get murky.

You're right, I said I thought Cueto had the edge. I still do. Here's maybe the chances I'd give each these guys to win:

40% - Cueto
35% - Dickey
20% - Kershaw
5% - Rest of Field

So based on that, I give myself a 65% chance to win this bet that you posed to me. For a non-gambling man who is not actively seeking to participate in a bet, that's not quite enough for me to take you up on that. But again, that's neither here nor there. I'm not here to gamble.

The point that YOU continue to dodge is the fact that you've "given" yourself Dickey for this hypothetical bet. What if I was the gambling man and came to you first, saying I bet you $xxx that either Cueto or Dickey will win over Gio Gonzalez + whoever-else-you-want-besides-Cueto-and-Dickey? Doesn't look so tempting now, does it? That's basically what you did to me.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

I know this is hard, but I need you to work with me here for like, one second.

Please read this one more time:

So based on that, I give myself a 65% chance to win this bet that you posed to me. For a non-gambling man who is not actively seeking to participate in a bet, that's not quite enough for me to take you up on that. But again, that's neither here nor there. I'm not here to gamble.

The best stock traders in the world hit 63%. The BEST sports gamblers in the world win at a 58% rate (look up Billy Walters win rate). I am offering you a 65% chance to win against me. You have a massive edge at 65%. You would have to be a complete fool to not make this play or you are just scared to put your money where your mouth is or a little bit of both.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Gio47

The BEST sports gamblers in the world win at a 58% rate (look up Billy Walters win rate). Stock traders pray every night that they can hit 60%. I am offering you a 65% chance to win against me. You would have to be a complete fool to not make this play or you are just scared to put your money where your mouth is or a little bit of both.

I don't gamble and I don't trade stocks, so those percentages mean nothing to me. This is real good stuff...when you're backed into a corner and everything you try to pose as an argument fails, there's nothin' like good ol'-fashioned gamblin' fun to try to back someone else into a corner and make them feel like a coward. Sorry, it ain't happening.

Here's a bet for you: I bet you that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. Since I proposed the bet, you must take the sun rising in the west. What, not fair, you say?

[MetDude]

We interrupt this broadcast to bring you the following breaking news bulletin.



We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by MetDude

We interrupt this broadcast to bring you the following breaking news bulletin.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

I'm sorry, I have a hard time letting this rest as long as certain members think they can invalidate my argument by spontaneously proposing a bet that I don't actually think is that fair. I just spent 5 pages explaining why Gio Gonzalez -- although a very good pitcher -- is maybe not quite as good as his W-L record suggests and hasn't quite worked his way into a Cy Young race that, in my opinion, will basically come down to Johnny Cueto, R.A. Dickey, and to a lesser extent, Clayton Kershaw.

When said certain member hedges his spontaneous bet with R.A. Dickey, who has the second-strongest case behind Johnny Cueto, in my opinion (but really isn't that far behind), why does that member think they can play the "talk is cheap" card even though the focal point of this "discussion" for the past 5 pages hasn't even been Dickey? I haven't made a case against Dickey. In fact, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Dickey won the Cy Young. I WOULD be surprised if Gonzalez won.

So if I took this moronic bet and R.A. Dickey ends up winning the Cy Young, this member can come back to this thread and say, "LOL @ jonandrews, he obvi duznt no wut he iz talk about and i tuk him 4 hiz mony LULZ!!!!!!!!111". If Gio ends up winning, by all means, come back and gloat all you want. But don't call me a coward for not taking a bet you just sprung on me and frankly, has nothing to do with what we've been talking about the past five pages.

[jbellis74]

What makes R.A. my choice is the team he is on....

Other named pitchers Gio and Cueto and Kershaw are all on pretty decent if not very good teams.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

I don't gamble and I don't trade stocks, so those percentages mean nothing to me. This is real good stuff...when you're backed into a corner and everything you try to pose as an argument fails, there's nothin' like good ol'-fashioned gamblin' fun to try to back someone else into a corner and make them feel like a coward. Sorry, it ain't happening.

Here's a bet for you: I bet you that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. Since I proposed the bet, you must take the sun rising in the west. What, not fair, you say?

Dude, it's over. You made yourself look very dumb. You just said you had a 65% edge and you won't even bet $20. You are scared and don't really believe what you're saying. Gambler or not, any smart guy takes a 65% edge bet every time. You will be extremely rich long term doing so.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Gio47

Dude, it's over. You made yourself look very dumb. You just said you had a 65% edge and you won't even bet $20. You are scared and don't really believe what you're saying. Gambler or not, any smart guy takes a 65% edge bet every time. You will be extremely rich long term doing so.

Is this really happening? Gosh, now I've heard it all. So very dumb is the shlub with the full-time job and traditional savings vehicles in the form of a 401K target-date retirement fund who refuses to take a bet with a no-name homer on an Internet forum who continues to ignore every rational thought posed to him.

[VWBUS1978]

woop woop... ballers be ballin' up in here. talkin all kinda smack!

i know who is not winning a CYA this year: Tim Lincecum

outside of knowing 1-2 guys who won't win the award - nobody knows who is going to get it. the people voting don't even know.

if my vote counts it is going to Gio, not Dickey.

let's face it: who would you want to win it?

1- guy who took 12 years to "figure it out" and have one banner year
2- guy who has only been in the league for 3 years and has been dominant, consistant and (to a lesser extent) thrived on a crap team with hardly any run support.

if they give the award to dickey or Gio, i could care less. no horse in race.

[Metsfan1121]

Originally Posted by VWBUS1978

woop woop... ballers be ballin' up in here. talkin all kinda smack!

i know who is not winning a CYA this year: Tim Lincecum

outside of knowing 1-2 guys who won't win the award - nobody knows who is going to get it. the people voting don't even know.

if my vote counts it is going to Gio, not Dickey.

let's face it: who would you want to win it?

1- guy who took 12 years to "figure it out" and have one banner year
2- guy who has only been in the league for 3 years and has been dominant, consistant and (to a lesser extent) thrived on a crap team with hardly any run support.

if they give the award to dickey or Gio, i could care less. no horse in race.

He has crazy good run support.