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Old 09-10-2012, 10:10 PM   #376 (permalink)
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JohnAndrew, youre a hater and nitpicker. Umps were squeezing Gio since he got ejected 2 days ago for arguing the strike zone from the dugout. Regardless Gio pitched amazing today and he's been unreal lately. Give the man his credit and start believing he just might win Cy Young.

Please answer my simple questions.


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Originally Posted by Gio47 View Post
How did Gio pitch? How many runs has he given up the last 22 innings? How many of those walks led to runs today? Who leads the league in wins? What team is currently 1st in MLB?

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Old 09-10-2012, 10:27 PM   #377 (permalink)
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JohnAndrew, youre a hater and nitpicker. Umps were squeezing Gio since he got ejected 2 days ago for arguing the strike zone from the dugout. Regardless Gio pitched amazing today and he's been unreal lately. Give the man his credit and start believing he just might win Cy Young.

Please answer my simple questions.
Here are the answers to your simple questions: 1, 0, Gio, Nats

What I need you to do for me is find the part of the thread where I said I don't like Gio. I can find you the part where I said I like him, and I continue to like him a lot.

As a Yankee fan, I have absolutely zero interest in this race. I'm just trying to call it like I see it using objective stats and analysis. A guy who misses bats is great -- a guy who misses bats and doesn't walk guys is even better.
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Old 09-10-2012, 10:29 PM   #378 (permalink)
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Gio47: the only person in the history of the world to call someone a fool for NOT betting on sports.
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Old 09-10-2012, 10:36 PM   #379 (permalink)
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First to 20 wins will be the Cy Young
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Old 09-10-2012, 11:03 PM   #380 (permalink)
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Say what you may, Gio was getting squeezed a little bit by the umps for his tantrum the other day... That being said, he pitched very well and didn't allow it to bother him to the point where he was leaving fastballs down the middle for David Wright to crush. 1 bad pitch all night and he dropped his ERA .05... Let's see what Dickey does tomorrow, if he gets lit up.... watch out
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Old 09-11-2012, 01:00 AM   #381 (permalink)
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Gio47: the only person in the history of the world to call someone a fool for NOT betting on sports.
FALSE. I am the guy who calls anyone who doesn't take a 65% win rate investment/wager a FOOL.

"Gambling" is stupid because the average person hits 50%, with 10% juice on losses you lose in the long run. In this case you are hitting 65% and you aren't paying juice so it's actually a smart investment, not your typical degen gamble on Monday night football against a razor sharp line with no edge.

JohnAndrew is the first person I have ever in my life heard say they won't make a wager with only 65% edge. That by the way means I would have a 35% chance of winning. Only a very unintelligent person would not make a wager against someone who only wins 35% of the time. Stop bringing it up, you really make yourself look dumb.

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Old 09-11-2012, 02:01 AM   #382 (permalink)
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FALSE. I am the guy who calls anyone who doesn't take a 65% win rate investment/wager a FOOL.

"Gambling" is stupid because the average person hits 50%, with 10% juice on losses you lose in the long run. In this case you are hitting 65% and you aren't paying juice so it's actually a smart investment, not your typical degen gamble on Monday night football against a razor sharp line with no edge.

JohnAndrew is the first person I have ever in my life heard say they won't make a wager with only 65% edge. That by the way means I would have a 35% chance of winning. Only a very unintelligent person would not make a wager against someone who only wins 35% of the time. Stop bringing it up, you really make yourself look dumb.
I read your second paragraph and I realized I have no idea what you're talking about. So, congratulations Gio47, you've actually taught me something: I realized I don't actually know anything about gambling because -- oh wait, here's the kicker -- I don't gamble.

And let's make something clear here: any time you play a game of chance for money is technically considered "gambling", so I don't exactly follow you when you consider me putting down $20 as an "investment". If I have a chance to walk away empty-handed, it sounds an awful lot like it could be gambling to me.

If you make decent money suckering people into silly bets like this, then power to you. I'm sure you've got a great system all figured out and you'll be making it rain in no time. I've got better things to do with my twenty dollars. I can get three cold beers in New York City with that kind of money, and I don't get a feeling of addiction or self-loathing when I pay up.

I'd actually be a little disappointed if you in particular didn't think I sounded dumb not taking you up on that offer. There are worse things in the world than being a moron in the eyes of a gambling man.
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Old 09-11-2012, 02:24 AM   #383 (permalink)
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The only Met that deserves to be walked is Wright, the other 4 are inexcusable. That will always be Gio's biggest flaw is his reliance on the curve. If it's not working he's going to put a ton of people on, and the good hitting teams will beat him.
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Old 09-11-2012, 09:23 AM   #384 (permalink)
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I read your second paragraph and I realized I have no idea what you're talking about. So, congratulations Gio47, you've actually taught me something: I realized I don't actually know anything about gambling because -- oh wait, here's the kicker -- I don't gamble.

And let's make something clear here: any time you play a game of chance for money is technically considered "gambling", so I don't exactly follow you when you consider me putting down $20 as an "investment". If I have a chance to walk away empty-handed, it sounds an awful lot like it could be gambling to me.

If you make decent money suckering people into silly bets like this, then power to you. I'm sure you've got a great system all figured out and you'll be making it rain in no time. I've got better things to do with my twenty dollars. I can get three cold beers in New York City with that kind of money, and I don't get a feeling of addiction or self-loathing when I pay up.

I'd actually be a little disappointed if you in particular didn't think I sounded dumb not taking you up on that offer. There are worse things in the world than being a moron in the eyes of a gambling man.
It's very easy to understand. It is not "gambling" when you have a clear cut edge. When you bet on sports, you have a 50% chance of winning. Either team "x" wins or team "y" wins so there is zero advantage. In this case though, you have a 65% edge so it is not pure "gambling". You are not just picking heads and tails. You have a clear cut advantage so it is a profitable long term wager that you should always be making.

Please understand that every business man is a gambler as well. If you buy real estate, you are gambling that you can sell the house for more. If you buy stock, you are gambling that the stock will sell for more. Heck even if you work a 9-5pm for 20 years for company X, you are gambling your time that you couldn't go out and create that same business yourself or another business and make a lot more money.

I do personally sports bet (winner long term hitting 58%) and it's funny to me how people frown on the industry as much as they do. 90% of restaurants fail. Yet people that start restaurants aren't seen as gamblers. Starting a business that has a 10% success rate sounds like a HUGE gamble. Heck I'd rather put all my money on a 50/50 sports bet than do that. 95% of stock traders lose money. Yet if I said i traded stocks, I wouldn't be seen in the same light as if I said I bet sports and you wouldn't be bashing me in the same way.

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Old 09-11-2012, 09:23 AM   #385 (permalink)
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Anddddd by the way, Gio Gonzalez leads the Major League's in wins and is going to win this NL CY YOUNG.
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Old 09-11-2012, 09:40 AM   #386 (permalink)
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The only Met that deserves to be walked is Wright, the other 4 are inexcusable. That will always be Gio's biggest flaw is his reliance on the curve. If it's not working he's going to put a ton of people on, and the good hitting teams will beat him.


Even with all the "inexcusable" walks the Mets couldn't capitalize and the crazy thing is, is that there must not be that many good hitting teams in the league because nobody has really hit him that hard this year


......But ya I get what your saying
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Old 09-11-2012, 09:44 AM   #387 (permalink)
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"Gonzalez is certainly a prime contender for the top pitching prize." - Directly from ESPN, but you guys are right.... He has no chance.
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Old 09-11-2012, 09:52 AM   #388 (permalink)
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"Gonzalez is certainly a prime contender for the top pitching prize." - Directly from ESPN, but you guys are right.... He has no chance.
He wasn't a prime contender 24 hours ago. Now he is. Things can change quickly. Dickey could throw a shutout tonight, and he would be back in the limelight. Or he could give up 7 runs, and suddenly things will be quite muddy.
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Old 09-11-2012, 09:57 AM   #389 (permalink)
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He wasn't a prime contender 24 hours ago. Now he is. Things can change quickly. Dickey could throw a shutout tonight, and he would be back in the limelight. Or he could give up 7 runs, and suddenly things will be quite muddy.


That is what I have been saying all along but you guys have been telling me I am crazy and that he had no chance behind Dickey and Cueto.
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:03 AM   #390 (permalink)
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That is what I have been saying all along but you guys have been telling me I am crazy and that he had no chance behind Dickey and Cueto.
Arrrrggh!!! Nobody has been telling you he has no chance! OK, I'm not going to go back and read through all the posts to validate that, but I personally never said he doesn't have a chance. I've only said he's got some work to do to win, and he still does. If they handed out the award today, Dickey would still be the winner.

He's got, what, 3 or 4 starts left? He needs to win 2 more games and bring his ERA down to 2.70 to win.
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:06 AM   #391 (permalink)
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Please don't think I'm disagreeing with you. He gets it done. But the moment someone on ESPN says "... but he's 3rd in the NL in run support", it will be over for him, even if he manages to finish 1st in wins and 5th in ERA/WHIP.

"It will be over for him" --- that's you giving him a chance? lol
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:11 AM   #392 (permalink)
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OK guys, I'm back for more this morning.

I was doing a little research last night, and I think I came across something particularly damning that will likely be held against Gio...and as much as I like to pump up sabermetrics, it actually has to do with something much simpler than that.

Before I get into that, however, I want to preface this by saying that while I semi-regret participating in this trainwreck of a thread, I'm actually kind of happy it happened because it's helped me better understand what the voters appear to be looking for and based on that, I feel a bit more comfortable anticipating what'll happen when the ballots are finally counted.

So, without further ado...

Yet Another Exhibit on Why Gio Gonzalez Might Not Be As Close to the NL Cy Young As Some People Think

After last night's 6-inning outing, Gio's 181 and 1/3 innings pitched puts him safely at 11th-place in that category for the National League. Kershaw and Dickey, at 199 and 2/3 and 198 respectively, will both give it a go tonight.

While 11th place in the National League sounds...well, fine, I guess, it got me thinking -- where have the Cy Young award winners of the past landed in that category? Here's what I found:

National League
2011 - Kershaw - 3rd
2010 - Halladay - 1st
2009 - Timmy Jim - 3rd
2008 - Timmy Jim - 3rd
2007 - Peavy - 4th
2006 - Webb - 2nd
2005 - Carpenter - 2nd
2004 - Clemens - 8th
2003 - Gagne - Out the Top 10
2002 - Johnson - 1st
2001 - Johnson - 2nd
2000 - Johnson - 3rd

American League
2011 - Verlander - 1st
2010 - Hernandez - 1st
2009 - Greinke - 5th
2008 - Lee - 2nd
2007 - Sabathia - 1st
2006 - Santana - 1st
2005 - Colon - 7th
2004 - Santana - 2nd
2003 - Halladay - 1st
2002 - Zito - 5th
2001 - Clemens - Outside the Top 10
2000 - Martinez - 7th

So, since the year 2000, exactly two pitchers have finished outside the top 10 in innings pitched and went on to win the Cy Young. One was a closer; the other is a guy -- perhaps you've heard of him -- Roger Clemens ("Show me a guy who's done something!" Well, here he is. I think that line of thinking resonated with voters exactly one time in the past twelve years, and that point in time, he did indeed do something: he had five Cy Young awards under his belt at that time.).

Outside of that, there are three other guys who finished outside the top 5 in innings and went on to win. One of them -- and there's that name again -- was Roger Clemens. One of them was Pedro in the year 2000, whose campaign that year is probably one of the filthiest on record. Absolutely stupid, video game-type numbers. Unreal. That leaves Bartolo Colon in 2005, and all it takes is a little Googling to see how, in retrospect, people felt about that decision.

So I'll say this: this isn't the final nail in Gio's coffin by any means. He's still got a handful of starts left to help him build up his innings count. But we have to acknowledge something here, because I've been told I've been "nitpicky" for pointing out things like how he walked 5 Mets last night. Blah blah blah he was squeezed out of the strike zone. OK, that's cute. This is still the same guy who's walked the 6th-most batters in the American League. Last night wasn't some anomaly that we can cast aside because he happened to get ejected several days ago and the umpires might, might be trying to prove a point to him (reluctantly giving you the benefit of the doubt here).

The thing is, when you tend to walk a lot of guys, your pitch count goes up. Way up. And when your pitch count goes way up, you can't go as far into games as you'd like. This seems to be the way things go with with Gio. For the Nationals' purposes, it's obviously worked: they give him lots of nice run support, he gives them 5-6 really solid innings, and he turns it over to a great bullpen to seal the win. And they've won 19 games that way. That's great! But when the voters look at his resume a few months from now, and Gio hasn't logged quite as many innings as the National League workhorses, I have a feeling they won't let it slide so easily.

Again, he's still got time to build his case. Perhaps the voters are willing to overlook his lack of innings pitched if he puts together a very strong September and improves the numbers he's got now. But based on what I've found with the innings pitched, the outlook, in my opinion, is actually a little bit bleaker for him than what I was thinking before he took the mound yesterday.
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:14 AM   #393 (permalink)
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"It will be over for him" --- that's you giving him a chance? lol
I still stand by that statement 100%. 3 consecutives shutout wins for Gio (unlikely) and nobody would care about run support. But even a strong showing from him down the stretch, assuming Dickey hangs in there, and the run support will become a factor. Just you wait and see.
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:26 AM   #394 (permalink)
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Taking a step back here, in light of JA's long post above, I think it's important to distinguish the differences between "best pitcher" (subjective) and "Cy Young winner". These two things are not equal, and one does not necessarily imply the other. Several members here have identified who they think the best pitcher is, and thereby deduced that his selection should win the Cy Young. But we all have different criteria for what we think makes a player good.

This thread is called "NL CY YOUNG". Therefore, if we can nail down a list of what criteria we think are important to voters, we can ignore the whole "my pitcher is better than your pitcher" load of fun we're having here, and probably identify who will actually win the Cy Young. Overkill? Maybe, considering it's already been done in piece-parts throughout this "discussion". But this thread is a trainwreck, and I can't look away.
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:26 AM   #395 (permalink)
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OK guys, I'm back for more this morning.

I was doing a little research last night, and I think I came across something particularly damning that will likely be held against Gio...and as much as I like to pump up sabermetrics, it actually has to do with something much simpler than that.
Of courseeeeee you did. Because you're a hater and nitpicker. I said it yesterday and obviously you stayed up last night trying your best to find anything on him that could weaken his chances of Cy Young.

Last edited by Gio47; 09-11-2012 at 10:28 AM.
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:28 AM   #396 (permalink)
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Of courseeeeee you did. Because you're a hater and nitpicker. I said it yesterday and obviously you stayed up last night trying your best to find anything on him that could weaken his chances of Cy Young.
You're right ... nothing like evidence to ... um ... well ...
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:30 AM   #397 (permalink)
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He wasn't a prime contender 24 hours ago. Now he is. Things can change quickly. Dickey could throw a shutout tonight, and he would be back in the limelight. Or he could give up 7 runs, and suddenly things will be quite muddy.
I told everyone he'd win last night and that everyone would start changing their tune. Sure enough.....
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:33 AM   #398 (permalink)
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Ohhhhh brooooooother ...

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Old 09-11-2012, 10:34 AM   #399 (permalink)
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Of courseeeeee you did. Because you're a hater and nitpicker. I said it yesterday and obviously you stayed up last night trying your best to find anything on him that could weaken his chances of Cy Young.
As someone who appreciates and is curious about the game, yup, I took 25 minutes late last night to put that list together when I couldn't sleep. I am still not hating on Gio, and I think that most people can agree that innings pitched is a fairly important stat for a starting pitcher -- it's not exactly "nitpicking".
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:36 AM   #400 (permalink)
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Swingman and Gio47, honest question. Who do you think is going to win the AL Cy Young?
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