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Old 09-11-2012, 10:40 AM   #401 (permalink)
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A nice predictor, but definitely overvalues wins (see Kershaw, Hernandez): http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:44 AM   #402 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Thommy! View Post
A nice predictor, but definitely overvalues wins (see Kershaw, Hernandez): 2012 MLB Baseball Cy Young Predictor - Major League Baseball - ESPN
Very interesting ... thanks for sharing. I would question the weighting of the "victory bonus", doesn't seem like it mattered much to voters in previous years.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:16 AM   #403 (permalink)
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Swingman and Gio47, honest question. Who do you think is going to win the AL Cy Young?

Should be the best pitcher in the AL for the past few years... Felix Hernandez
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:20 AM   #404 (permalink)
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A nice predictor, but definitely overvalues wins (see Kershaw, Hernandez): 2012 MLB Baseball Cy Young Predictor - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Heyyy would you look at that.. Someone on ESPN who knows a hell of a lot more than we do is putting Gio only a few points behind Dickey for Cy Young... Who woulda thought????????????????

When Dickey gets nailed tonight (hopefully) we'll see where this conversation turns too. After a loss to the Stros' I am not seeing as much Cueto love either... Funny huh?


By the way, it is not impossible for Gio to throw 3 scoreless games in his last 4 outings he has already done that this season and almost did it again before a HR yesterday. Not really sure what would be so impossible about it..
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:27 AM   #405 (permalink)
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Should be the best pitcher in the AL for the past few years... Felix Hernandez
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Heyyy would you look at that.. Someone on ESPN who knows a hell of a lot more than we do is putting Gio only a few points behind Dickey for Cy Young... Who woulda thought????????????????

When Dickey gets nailed tonight (hopefully) we'll see where this conversation turns too. After a loss to the Stros' I am not seeing as much Cueto love either... Funny huh?


By the way, it is not impossible for Gio to throw 3 scoreless games in his last 4 outings he has already done that this season and almost did it again before a HR yesterday. Not really sure what would be so impossible about it..
This computer that knows so much more than we do somehow put "the best pitcher in the AL for the past few years" as the sixth-best pitcher in the American League the year he won the Cy Young award? 2010 MLB Baseball Cy Young Predictor - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Look at this year...Kershaw 9th? Joel Hanrahan 10th? Is this thing actually serious?
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:34 AM   #406 (permalink)
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This computer that knows so much more than we do somehow put "the best pitcher in the AL for the past few years" as the sixth-best pitcher in the American League the year he won the Cy Young award? 2010 MLB Baseball Cy Young Predictor - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Look at this year...Kershaw 9th? Joel Hanrahan 10th? Is this thing actually serious?

Funny how you date back to 2010 when it was wrong (in the AL not NL) but you don't go back to last year where is dead money on Kershaw and Verlander and the previous years where it was correct! You really are a nitpicking hater as some one pointed out earlier..
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:36 AM   #407 (permalink)
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Funny how you date back to 2010 when it was wrong (in the AL not NL) but you don't go back to last year where is dead money on Kershaw and Verlander and the previous years where it was correct! You really are a nitpicking hater as some one pointed out earlier..
Last year there wasn't really any debate. Actually, let me change that ... there was ZERO debate. Verlander and Kershaw both won the pitching Triple Crown. Pretty sure that guarantees the Cy Young.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:37 AM   #408 (permalink)
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Swingman and Gio47, honest question. Who do you think is going to win the AL Cy Young?
David Price. Most wins and lowest ERA of starters. Also has the least losses of the contenders with the exception of Weaver whom I have as the #2 right now in AL Cy Young.

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Old 09-11-2012, 11:47 AM   #409 (permalink)
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Funny how you date back to 2010 when it was wrong (in the AL not NL) but you don't go back to last year where is dead money on Kershaw and Verlander and the previous years where it was correct! You really are a nitpicking hater as some one pointed out earlier..
Let me go back as far as this calculator lets me:

2011 - 2/2 correctly predicted
2010 - 1/2
2009 - 0/2
2008 - 2/2
2007 - 2/2
2006 - 2/2
2005 - 1/2
2004 - 1/2
2003 - 0/2
2002 - 2/2

That's 13/20 or -- holy hell, here's that number again -- a 65% success rate. Is it nitpicking to second-guess the integrity of a computer program that correctly predicts 65% of its outcomes? From where I come from, 65% is one percentage point away from a big, fat F.

I'm sure there is a lot taken into account in this program and it is impressive that it picked even half of the winners correctly. But to take the results as gospel is a little narrow-minded.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:50 AM   #410 (permalink)
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Everyone start getting their new arguments ready on why Gio won't win Cy Young when Dickey takes a loss tonight and gives up 5 runs at home to the Nationals.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:54 AM   #411 (permalink)
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Everyone start getting their new arguments ready on why Gio won't win Cy Young when Dickey takes a loss tonight and gives up 5 runs at home to the Nationals.
This will continue to be my argument until Gio finds himself amongst the league leaders in innings pitched:


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Originally Posted by JohnAndrew View Post
OK guys, I'm back for more this morning.

I was doing a little research last night, and I think I came across something particularly damning that will likely be held against Gio...and as much as I like to pump up sabermetrics, it actually has to do with something much simpler than that.

Before I get into that, however, I want to preface this by saying that while I semi-regret participating in this trainwreck of a thread, I'm actually kind of happy it happened because it's helped me better understand what the voters appear to be looking for and based on that, I feel a bit more comfortable anticipating what'll happen when the ballots are finally counted.

So, without further ado...

Yet Another Exhibit on Why Gio Gonzalez Might Not Be As Close to the NL Cy Young As Some People Think

After last night's 6-inning outing, Gio's 181 and 1/3 innings pitched puts him safely at 11th-place in that category for the National League. Kershaw and Dickey, at 199 and 2/3 and 198 respectively, will both give it a go tonight.

While 11th place in the National League sounds...well, fine, I guess, it got me thinking -- where have the Cy Young award winners of the past landed in that category? Here's what I found:

National League
2011 - Kershaw - 3rd
2010 - Halladay - 1st
2009 - Timmy Jim - 3rd
2008 - Timmy Jim - 3rd
2007 - Peavy - 4th
2006 - Webb - 2nd
2005 - Carpenter - 2nd
2004 - Clemens - 8th
2003 - Gagne - Out the Top 10
2002 - Johnson - 1st
2001 - Johnson - 2nd
2000 - Johnson - 3rd

American League
2011 - Verlander - 1st
2010 - Hernandez - 1st
2009 - Greinke - 5th
2008 - Lee - 2nd
2007 - Sabathia - 1st
2006 - Santana - 1st
2005 - Colon - 7th
2004 - Santana - 2nd
2003 - Halladay - 1st
2002 - Zito - 5th
2001 - Clemens - Outside the Top 10
2000 - Martinez - 7th

So, since the year 2000, exactly two pitchers have finished outside the top 10 in innings pitched and went on to win the Cy Young. One was a closer; the other is a guy -- perhaps you've heard of him -- Roger Clemens ("Show me a guy who's done something!" Well, here he is. I think that line of thinking resonated with voters exactly one time in the past twelve years, and that point in time, he did indeed do something: he had five Cy Young awards under his belt at that time.).

Outside of that, there are three other guys who finished outside the top 5 in innings and went on to win. One of them -- and there's that name again -- was Roger Clemens. One of them was Pedro in the year 2000, whose campaign that year is probably one of the filthiest on record. Absolutely stupid, video game-type numbers. Unreal. That leaves Bartolo Colon in 2005, and all it takes is a little Googling to see how, in retrospect, people felt about that decision.

So I'll say this: this isn't the final nail in Gio's coffin by any means. He's still got a handful of starts left to help him build up his innings count. But we have to acknowledge something here, because I've been told I've been "nitpicky" for pointing out things like how he walked 5 Mets last night. Blah blah blah he was squeezed out of the strike zone. OK, that's cute. This is still the same guy who's walked the 6th-most batters in the American League. Last night wasn't some anomaly that we can cast aside because he happened to get ejected several days ago and the umpires might, might be trying to prove a point to him (reluctantly giving you the benefit of the doubt here).

The thing is, when you tend to walk a lot of guys, your pitch count goes up. Way up. And when your pitch count goes way up, you can't go as far into games as you'd like. This seems to be the way things go with with Gio. For the Nationals' purposes, it's obviously worked: they give him lots of nice run support, he gives them 5-6 really solid innings, and he turns it over to a great bullpen to seal the win. And they've won 19 games that way. That's great! But when the voters look at his resume a few months from now, and Gio hasn't logged quite as many innings as the National League workhorses, I have a feeling they won't let it slide so easily.

Again, he's still got time to build his case. Perhaps the voters are willing to overlook his lack of innings pitched if he puts together a very strong September and improves the numbers he's got now. But based on what I've found with the innings pitched, the outlook, in my opinion, is actually a little bit bleaker for him than what I was thinking before he took the mound yesterday.
Shame on me for thinking this would actually encourage some thoughtful discussion.
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Old 09-11-2012, 12:37 PM   #412 (permalink)
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Everyone start getting their new arguments ready on why Gio won't win Cy Young when Dickey takes a loss tonight and gives up 5 runs at home to the Nationals.
7 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, and a no-decision.
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Old 09-11-2012, 12:40 PM   #413 (permalink)
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Holy carp...the Gio fanboys in this thread are just nauseating.

You're slowly making me dislike Gio, after liking him his whole career...
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Old 09-11-2012, 01:26 PM   #414 (permalink)
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Holy carp...the Gio fanboys in this thread are just nauseating.

You're slowly making me dislike Gio, after liking him his whole career...

Not a fan boy pal, blood relative. Get your story straight before you make a comment like that. Don't dislike someone for what someone says about them, all I'm saying is he deserves more recognition than he is getting from anyone in here. You gonna start disliking Cueto and Dickey because of their "fanboys" who are defending their case for Cy young?
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Old 09-11-2012, 01:44 PM   #415 (permalink)
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By my math, Gio has four more starts the rest of the season (9/16 @ Atlanta, 9/22 vs. Milwaukee, 9/27 @ Philadelphia, 10/2 vs. Philadelphia).

Here's the best-case scenario: if Gio pitches four consecutive 9-inning shutout games to close the regular season, that'll put him at 59 earned runs in 217 1/3 innings, or a 2.44 ERA. I can't for a second dispute that looks like a very serious Cy Young candidate. If Dickey and Cueto and Kershaw keep on chugging along as they have been, I'd have a very hard time arguing that any of them deserve it more.

The flip side of the coin is this: to find the last time a Cy Young award winner logged less than 220 innings, you have to go back to Clemens in 2004 (214 and 1/3, 2.98 ERA). The only other instances of this happening since 2000 are the closer Gagne in 2003 and Pedro Martinez in 2000 (217 innings pitched, 1.74 ERA and 0.74 WHIP).

So, in an absolutely perfect scenario for Gio, he'll still never quite reach that 220 innings pitched mark. If history is any indicator, if you're a starting pitcher not named Clemens and you're not putting up Pedro numbers, that still doesn't seem to be quite enough to get in.

Realistically, Gio will probably go 6-7 innings pitched in each of his games the rest of the way. Seeing that the Nationals are basically already a lock for the playoffs, it's hard to imagine Davey Johnson pushing him past that, since he'll obviously want him in top form for the ALDS. That'll put Gio at around the 210 innings pitched mark. In my humblest of humble opinions and based on results from the past eleven years, I think that puts Gio just on the outside looking in.
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Old 09-11-2012, 01:53 PM   #416 (permalink)
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Not a fan boy pal, blood relative. Get your story straight before you make a comment like that. Don't dislike someone for what someone says about them, all I'm saying is he deserves more recognition than he is getting from anyone in here. You gonna start disliking Cueto and Dickey because of their "fanboys" who are defending their case for Cy young?
Ok, pal. I got that you are related; you have stated it at least 10 times in the thread. Whoopty-do!

Doesn't change the fact that your posts are still fanboy-ish.

The other people making arguments in this thread are FAR less irritating, so no, I am not going to dislike them.
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:04 PM   #417 (permalink)
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Not a fan boy pal, blood relative. Get your story straight before you make a comment like that. Don't dislike someone for what someone says about them, all I'm saying is he deserves more recognition than he is getting from anyone in here. You gonna start disliking Cueto and Dickey because of their "fanboys" who are defending their case for Cy young?
Being "related" to him you think you'd be bias
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:11 PM   #418 (permalink)
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Everyone start getting their new arguments ready on why Gio won't win Cy Young when Dickey takes a loss tonight and gives up 5 runs at home to the Nationals.
Why such animosity towards Dickey? I get that you're a fan boy of Gio but dogging another pitcher says a lot about your character.

If Dickey goes 9 and K's 12 what would you say then?

The bottom line is they are both pitching lights out for most of the year. The big difference comes down to the teams they play on. The Mets are a horrible team whereas the Nationals are in first place and have a great team around their pitchers.
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:29 PM   #419 (permalink)
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Not a fan boy pal, blood relative. Get your story straight before you make a comment like that. Don't dislike someone for what someone says about them, all I'm saying is he deserves more recognition than he is getting from anyone in here. You gonna start disliking Cueto and Dickey because of their "fanboys" who are defending their case for Cy young?
You dont seem to undertand the difference between making salient points
and simply screaming GIO GIO GIO, bringing up prior run support in Oakland (which has no bearing on this year) or making assumptions about what everyone else is going to do the rest of the way , while also assuming those negatives couldnt possibly also happen to Gio.

Mind you, while I WANT Dickey to be the winner, I am perfectly aware there are several other strong candidates. Gio,Cueto, and using WAR alone .. Kershaw. There seems to be a alot of support for Chapman and Kimbrel as well, but I'll admit my own inability to make an effective comparison/evaluation between the relievers and the starters.

I also understand that youre related seeing as how youve mentioned it about 15 times, and that would, understandably, cause you to want Gio to be the winner. But youre speaking with your heart and not with your head , hence the fanboy term comes up.

The point is neither of you seems to be able to state facts.
You state alot of ifs such as when Cueto falls or apart, or when Dickey gets rocked tonight blah blah,999 pages of blah blah blah.
but somehow neither can manage to simply point out Gio's WAR and use it as a base for your case.

Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 4.9
Gio Gonzalez Nationals 4.9
Johnny Cueto Reds 4.6
R.A. Dickey Mets 4.4
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 4.3
Wade Miley Diamondbacks 4.2
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 4.0
Cole Hamels Phillies 3.9
Cliff Lee Phillies 3.9
Josh Johnson Marlins 3.8
Matt Cain Giants 3.7

Speak objectively, without skewing all the "what ifs" as automatically going your way, and your points will be better received.
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:40 PM   #420 (permalink)
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I believe the current WAR Stats are

5.8 Cueto
4.9 Dickey
4.6 Kershaw
4.1 Gio
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:45 PM   #421 (permalink)
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You dont seem to undertand the difference between making salient points
and simply screaming GIO GIO GIO, bringing up prior run support in Oakland (which has no bearing on this year) or making assumptions about what everyone else is going to do the rest of the way , while also assuming those negatives couldnt possibly also happen to Gio.

Mind you, while I WANT Dickey to be the winner, I am perfectly aware there are several other strong candidates. Gio,Cueto, and using WAR alone .. Kershaw. There seems to be a alot of support for Chapman and Kimbrel as well, but I'll admit my own inability to make an effective comparison/evaluation between the relievers and the starters.

I also understand that youre related seeing as how youve mentioned it about 15 times, and that would, understandably, cause you to want Gio to be the winner. But youre speaking with your heart and not with your head , hence the fanboy term comes up.

The point is neither of you seems to be able to state facts.
You state alot of ifs such as when Cueto falls or apart, or when Dickey gets rocked tonight blah blah,999 pages of blah blah blah.
but somehow neither can manage to simply point out Gio's WAR and use it as a base for your case.

Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 4.9
Gio Gonzalez Nationals 4.9
Johnny Cueto Reds 4.6
R.A. Dickey Mets 4.4
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 4.3
Wade Miley Diamondbacks 4.2
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 4.0
Cole Hamels Phillies 3.9
Cliff Lee Phillies 3.9
Josh Johnson Marlins 3.8
Matt Cain Giants 3.7

Speak objectively, without skewing all the "what ifs" as automatically going your way, and your points will be better received.


Those are not the WAR numbers that I was looking at. Numbers on ESPN are different.
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:47 PM   #422 (permalink)
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I believe the current WAR Stats are

5.8 Cueto
4.9 Dickey
4.6 Kershaw
4.1 Gio
HMMM i got that from fangraphs,
as that seems to be the site of choice for the sabre-heads.

National League Leaderboards 2012 Pitchers Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

please show me what I did wrong as I honestly dont use it terribly often.
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:56 PM   #423 (permalink)
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HMMM i got that from fangraphs,
as that seems to be the site of choice for the sabre-heads.

National League Leaderboards 2012 Pitchers Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

please show me what I did wrong as I honestly dont use it terribly often.
Probably didn't do anything wrong, WAR is a non-standardized statistic and is calculated differently by different groups.
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:58 PM   #424 (permalink)
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Please win tonight Dickey and K a ton of dudes!
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Old 09-11-2012, 04:05 PM   #425 (permalink)
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Probably didn't do anything wrong, WAR is a non-standardized statistic and is calculated differently by different groups.
LOL - Im shocked at how far apart those numbers are.
Next time someone screams about how those of us who dont worship at the church of sabre are living in the stone ages,
I'll remember to point out how they cant even agree with one another about WAR.

I generally rely on traditional stats and then use my own judgement.

With that in mind, One could easily make a case for Kyle Lohse.
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