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Old 09-11-2012, 05:09 PM   #426 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by MetDude View Post
LOL - Im shocked at how far apart those numbers are.
Next time someone screams about how those of us who dont worship at the church of sabre are living in the stone ages,
I'll remember to point out how they cant even agree with one another about WAR.

I generally rely on traditional stats and then use my own judgement.

With that in mind, One could easily make a case for Kyle Lohse.
Lol ... I thought this too, until I saw all the stuff that goes into calculating the stat. It really comes down to how they weigh all the inputs. For example, the one with Gio near the top probably weighs wins a little more heavily than the others.
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Old 09-11-2012, 05:14 PM   #427 (permalink)
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I need to bump these to make sure they get read. I don't know how the Gio fans missed them

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OK guys, I'm back for more this morning.

I was doing a little research last night, and I think I came across something particularly damning that will likely be held against Gio...and as much as I like to pump up sabermetrics, it actually has to do with something much simpler than that.

Before I get into that, however, I want to preface this by saying that while I semi-regret participating in this trainwreck of a thread, I'm actually kind of happy it happened because it's helped me better understand what the voters appear to be looking for and based on that, I feel a bit more comfortable anticipating what'll happen when the ballots are finally counted.

So, without further ado...

Yet Another Exhibit on Why Gio Gonzalez Might Not Be As Close to the NL Cy Young As Some People Think

After last night's 6-inning outing, Gio's 181 and 1/3 innings pitched puts him safely at 11th-place in that category for the National League. Kershaw and Dickey, at 199 and 2/3 and 198 respectively, will both give it a go tonight.

While 11th place in the National League sounds...well, fine, I guess, it got me thinking -- where have the Cy Young award winners of the past landed in that category? Here's what I found:

National League
2011 - Kershaw - 3rd
2010 - Halladay - 1st
2009 - Timmy Jim - 3rd
2008 - Timmy Jim - 3rd
2007 - Peavy - 4th
2006 - Webb - 2nd
2005 - Carpenter - 2nd
2004 - Clemens - 8th
2003 - Gagne - Out the Top 10
2002 - Johnson - 1st
2001 - Johnson - 2nd
2000 - Johnson - 3rd

American League
2011 - Verlander - 1st
2010 - Hernandez - 1st
2009 - Greinke - 5th
2008 - Lee - 2nd
2007 - Sabathia - 1st
2006 - Santana - 1st
2005 - Colon - 7th
2004 - Santana - 2nd
2003 - Halladay - 1st
2002 - Zito - 5th
2001 - Clemens - Outside the Top 10
2000 - Martinez - 7th

So, since the year 2000, exactly two pitchers have finished outside the top 10 in innings pitched and went on to win the Cy Young. One was a closer; the other is a guy -- perhaps you've heard of him -- Roger Clemens ("Show me a guy who's done something!" Well, here he is. I think that line of thinking resonated with voters exactly one time in the past twelve years, and that point in time, he did indeed do something: he had five Cy Young awards under his belt at that time.).

Outside of that, there are three other guys who finished outside the top 5 in innings and went on to win. One of them -- and there's that name again -- was Roger Clemens. One of them was Pedro in the year 2000, whose campaign that year is probably one of the filthiest on record. Absolutely stupid, video game-type numbers. Unreal. That leaves Bartolo Colon in 2005, and all it takes is a little Googling to see how, in retrospect, people felt about that decision.

So I'll say this: this isn't the final nail in Gio's coffin by any means. He's still got a handful of starts left to help him build up his innings count. But we have to acknowledge something here, because I've been told I've been "nitpicky" for pointing out things like how he walked 5 Mets last night. Blah blah blah he was squeezed out of the strike zone. OK, that's cute. This is still the same guy who's walked the 6th-most batters in the American League. Last night wasn't some anomaly that we can cast aside because he happened to get ejected several days ago and the umpires might, might be trying to prove a point to him (reluctantly giving you the benefit of the doubt here).

The thing is, when you tend to walk a lot of guys, your pitch count goes up. Way up. And when your pitch count goes way up, you can't go as far into games as you'd like. This seems to be the way things go with with Gio. For the Nationals' purposes, it's obviously worked: they give him lots of nice run support, he gives them 5-6 really solid innings, and he turns it over to a great bullpen to seal the win. And they've won 19 games that way. That's great! But when the voters look at his resume a few months from now, and Gio hasn't logged quite as many innings as the National League workhorses, I have a feeling they won't let it slide so easily.

Again, he's still got time to build his case. Perhaps the voters are willing to overlook his lack of innings pitched if he puts together a very strong September and improves the numbers he's got now. But based on what I've found with the innings pitched, the outlook, in my opinion, is actually a little bit bleaker for him than what I was thinking before he took the mound yesterday.
Also:

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By my math, Gio has four more starts the rest of the season (9/16 @ Atlanta, 9/22 vs. Milwaukee, 9/27 @ Philadelphia, 10/2 vs. Philadelphia).

Here's the best-case scenario: if Gio pitches four consecutive 9-inning shutout games to close the regular season, that'll put him at 59 earned runs in 217 1/3 innings, or a 2.44 ERA. I can't for a second dispute that looks like a very serious Cy Young candidate. If Dickey and Cueto and Kershaw keep on chugging along as they have been, I'd have a very hard time arguing that any of them deserve it more.

The flip side of the coin is this: to find the last time a Cy Young award winner logged less than 220 innings, you have to go back to Clemens in 2004 (214 and 1/3, 2.98 ERA). The only other instances of this happening since 2000 are the closer Gagne in 2003 and Pedro Martinez in 2000 (217 innings pitched, 1.74 ERA and 0.74 WHIP).

So, in an absolutely perfect scenario for Gio, he'll still never quite reach that 220 innings pitched mark. If history is any indicator, if you're a starting pitcher not named Clemens and you're not putting up Pedro numbers, that still doesn't seem to be quite enough to get in.

Realistically, Gio will probably go 6-7 innings pitched in each of his games the rest of the way. Seeing that the Nationals are basically already a lock for the playoffs, it's hard to imagine Davey Johnson pushing him past that, since he'll obviously want him in top form for the ALDS. That'll put Gio at around the 210 innings pitched mark. In my humblest of humble opinions and based on results from the past eleven years, I think that puts Gio just on the outside looking in.
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Old 09-11-2012, 05:14 PM   #428 (permalink)
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HMMM i got that from fangraphs,
as that seems to be the site of choice for the sabre-heads.

National League Leaderboards 2012 Pitchers Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

please show me what I did wrong as I honestly dont use it terribly often.
I don't think you did anything wrong either. Like someone else said they may be factored differently
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Old 09-11-2012, 05:21 PM   #429 (permalink)
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I don't think you did anything wrong either. Like someone else said they may be factored differently
ok - so with that in mind, my point remains unaffected.

better to use that then simply repeat
"GIO GIO GIO"
Why?
"because he was so good in Oakland and everyone else is going to suck the rest of the way!"
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Old 09-11-2012, 05:25 PM   #430 (permalink)
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I hope to god dickey is lights out tonight so these gio groupies can start arguing about the second place cy young race.
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Old 09-11-2012, 05:38 PM   #431 (permalink)
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I hope to god dickey is lights out tonight so these gio groupies can start arguing about the second place cy young race.
Oh, didn't you hear? Dickey already lost:

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Everyone start getting their new arguments ready on why Gio won't win Cy Young when Dickey takes a loss tonight and gives up 5 runs at home to the Nationals.
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:01 PM   #432 (permalink)
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Oh, didn't you hear? Dickey already lost:
Hahahahaha
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:24 PM   #433 (permalink)
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Dickey is good but the Mets are breaking records with their poor hitting. Dickey is barelyyyy even favored at home. It's 50/50 whether he loses today but I have a gut feeling he gives up 5 runs. Nationals have just been on fire hitting the last couple of weeks.

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Old 09-11-2012, 06:28 PM   #434 (permalink)
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Dickey is good but the Mets are breaking records with their poor hitting. Dickey is barelyyyy even favored at home.
What does the mets hitting have to do with dickey's pitching and winning the cy young?
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:33 PM   #435 (permalink)
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What does the mets hitting have to do with dickey's pitching and winning the cy young?
Believe it or not, pitchers play better with leads. They get more comfortable up 4-0. Also, Dickey needs runs in order to get the W.
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:34 PM   #436 (permalink)
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Dickey is good but the Mets are breaking records with their poor hitting. Dickey is barelyyyy even favored at home. It's 50/50 whether he loses today but I have a gut feeling he gives up 5 runs. Nationals have just been on fire hitting the last couple of weeks.
Could you weigh in on my thoughts on innings pitched? They take up about half the page -- you can't miss them. Thanks!
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:37 PM   #437 (permalink)
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Believe it or not, pitchers play better with leads. They get more comfortable up 4-0. Also, Dickey needs runs in order to get the W.
So you could say gio only gets wins cause of the nats amazing offense? Dickey getting this many wins with low run support only helps his case
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:37 PM   #438 (permalink)
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Could you weigh in on my thoughts on innings pitched? They take up about half the page -- you can't miss them. Thanks!
I think Davey Johnson is holding back Gio on the innings. He knows he will need Gio big in the playoffs with Stras out so he only let's him go about 6-7. I think voters will take this into consideration and not penalize Gio for this as much as you believe. Gio can go deeper in these games but it's a smart managerial decision to not let him for playoffs.
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:38 PM   #439 (permalink)
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I think Davey Johnson is holding back Gio on the innings. He knows he will need Gio big in the playoffs with Stras out so he only let's him go about 6-7. I think voters will take this into consideration and not penalize Gio for this as much as you believe.
Your just assuming that though
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:38 PM   #440 (permalink)
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What does the mets hitting have to do with dickey's pitching and winning the cy young?


I think one of the recent records for offensive ineptness the mets just broke was "not scoring 2 runs in any one inning at home" over the course of 100 some odd innings. Which hadnt occurred since 1913.

I think Anthony Young might have even been able to do just as well as Gio did last night againt this Mets team, they way they hitting right now.

Anthony Young Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:40 PM   #441 (permalink)
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Your just assuming that though
No I'm not, it's a fact. Davey has talked about it.
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Old 09-11-2012, 06:46 PM   #442 (permalink)
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Believe it or not, pitchers play better with leads. They get more comfortable up 4-0. Also, Dickey needs runs in order to get the W.
19 pages later, and still the "W" stat counts... Give Felix a call and see how much his "W" number mattered when he won.

Looks like Bryce may be getting the day off tonight against Dickey, per CBS. Maybe the Nats want Dickey to win too!
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Old 09-11-2012, 07:52 PM   #443 (permalink)
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Looks like Bryce may be getting the day off tonight against Dickey, per CBS. Maybe the Nats want Dickey to win too!
Bryce Harper is 0-10 against Dickey. Your statement makes zero sense.

"Harper said he doesn't expect to start against Dickey -- the rookie is 0 for 10 with six strikeouts vs. the knuckleballer, no matter where he stands or what he swings. "In, out, up, down, back and forth, light, heavy, tried it all. Just can't hit the guy," Harper said.
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Old 09-11-2012, 07:58 PM   #444 (permalink)
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I think Davey Johnson is holding back Gio on the innings. He knows he will need Gio big in the playoffs with Stras out so he only let's him go about 6-7. I think voters will take this into consideration and not penalize Gio for this as much as you believe. Gio can go deeper in these games but it's a smart managerial decision to not let him for playoffs.
You are putting a lot of faith in the voters if you think they're gonna ask the "what if?" questions.

If, at the end of the season, there are 10 guys who have spent more time on the mound than Gio Gonzalez, it will not exactly bode well for his cause. I am not questioning Davey's decision to limit anyone's innings. In fact, it's probably the best move for them as they move into the postseason. But in doing so, he may be compromising his players' chances at landing an award.

You're also choosing to ignore the fact that Gio, with the number of free passes he issues, may be his own worst enemy when it comes to pitch counts and innings limits. Every guy he walks accelerates his own departure from the game, regardless of what Davey's plans are.

Before they even take the mound tonight, Dickey and Kershaw will have thrown over 16 more innings than Gio. That's like the Dodgers and the Mets getting two extra starts out of those guys over the course of the year, simply by managing their pitch counts and going deeper into games. Based on the pattern I'm seeing in innings logged by Cy Young winners, it's pretty clear that this is a VERY important factor when they cast their votes.
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:08 PM   #445 (permalink)
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Bryce Harper is 0-10 against Dickey. Your statement makes zero sense.

"Harper said he doesn't expect to start against Dickey -- the rookie is 0 for 10 with six strikeouts vs. the knuckleballer, no matter where he stands or what he swings. "In, out, up, down, back and forth, light, heavy, tried it all. Just can't hit the guy," Harper said.
I was kidding, if you couldn't pick that up. Calm down, buddy.
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:18 PM   #446 (permalink)
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I was kidding, if you couldn't pick that up. Calm down, buddy.
Harper just fisted a double down the 3rd base line, and the nats get a run in on a zim sac fly

regardless of how this plays out
to quote Gary Cohen
"If you're not old enough to drink, you're not old enough to write the lineup card"
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:20 PM   #447 (permalink)
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1-0 Nationals, not a bad start.
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:38 PM   #448 (permalink)
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The Mets are just terrible. Bases loaded 1 Out and they come up with a donut. That was a huge chance for them to break that streak of not scoring 1+ runs in an inning.
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Old 09-11-2012, 08:50 PM   #449 (permalink)
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The Mets are just terrible. Bases loaded 1 Out and they come up with a donut. That was a huge chance for them to break that streak of not scoring 1+ runs in an inning.
This is good stuff, thanks.
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Old 09-11-2012, 09:38 PM   #450 (permalink)
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This is one of the funniest threads I have read (well at least from pages 10-18). We have Swingman who constantly states that Gio Gonzalez is his cousin (FIRST COUSIN!) and then we have the OBVIOUS homer Gio47 who thinks Wins are a good stat to judge pitchers by.

Dickey deserves the Cy Young more than anyone else as of right now.
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