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Old 09-12-2012, 10:58 AM   #476 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Swingman View Post
I'm really happy that your really interested in finding out all these stats and compiling all of these different theories to try and prove your case but to be honest, your AGAIN nitpicking the categories the candidates your choosing to win are excelling at. I don't really care what anyone here has to say, neither should you guys care what I have to say. I am enjoying this thread because you guys get so angry over the smallest remarks when I am just messing around trying to get a rise out of guys. Ease up a little bit. If there were 4 Cy Young awards they would go to Cueto, Dickey, Kershaw and Gio but there isn't, there is only 1. Until that is decided I am going to continue to point out when either of these 3 guys lose or pitch bad (not to say that is going to happen) but I will also point out when they pitch well also.

Unfortunate for Kershaw yes, he didn't deserve that loss yesterday but it happens. Gio lost 2-1 to the Marlins in July in his homecoming where he pitched a great game, did he deserve to lose, probably not but it happens. I can name atleast 2 times where Gio took a small lead into the 9th and had Brad Lidge blow it for him. He would be over 20 wins with those, its baseball things are gonna happen. Did Dickey pitch his best game of the season? No, but did he pitch up to par how he has this season? No chance. Has Cueto pitched up to par his last two starts? Not even close but thats the beauty of the game. You can be a stud one week and a dud the next. This is baseball everything changes from week to week, like they say, your only as good as your last outing.
The reason I am taking the time to do this is because I am fascinated by the statistical element of the game and I like telling people that they're wrong. You guys are making the latter especially easy for me.

Again, pointing to stats like innings pitched, ERA and WHIP is not exactly nitpicking. If you ask anyone who's opinion is worth a damn, they won't tell you that those categories are meaningless.

Sure, I can spin an argument in Gio's favor: he leads the league in wins and he gives up the fewest hits and homers per nine innings. He has the highest K rate of everyone not named Stephen Strasburg. This is very nice stuff, but of course I'll leave out the nitpicky stuff like the 2 guys who've pitched more innings than him and have a lower ERA/WHIP (and more strikeouts?) than he does and the other guy who's been nearly as successful with anemic run support.

The longer you can get satisfaction out of getting the rise out of me, the longer I can get satisfaction in telling you that you're wrong.
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Old 09-12-2012, 11:04 AM   #477 (permalink)
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I think my favorite parts of this thread are either when people ignore objective analysis when they can't prepare a counter-argument or when they try to coerce me into betting when they get backed into a corner.
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Old 09-12-2012, 12:05 PM   #478 (permalink)
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The reason I am taking the time to do this is because I am fascinated by the statistical element of the game and I like telling people that they're wrong. You guys are making the latter especially easy for me.
I like telling people they are wrong? Wow. This is going to be great when Gio wins the Cy Young. Everyone tune in Sunday night on ESPN.
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Old 09-12-2012, 12:41 PM   #479 (permalink)
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I like telling people they are wrong? Wow. This is going to be great when Gio wins the Cy Young. Everyone tune in Sunday night on ESPN.
Listen, I have nothing to gain by "winning" this debate. If Gio wins, y'all can come back and tell me how much of a moron I was for writing Gio off and that I don't know anything about anything and that -- surprise, surprise! -- the stat fanboy fell flat on his face. If Clayton or R.A. or Johnny wins, the most I can say is, "well, it looks like history just repeated itself". There is no satisfaction in that.

There is, however, great satisfaction to be had when members here claim that Pitcher X is just so damn good in August in September and he will run away with the NL Cy Young because of that, although it becomes clear that said members haven't done their homework because upon further inspection, Pitcher Y, who is also in the running, actually has better numbers in August and September and Pitcher Z (also in the running) has numbers that are marginally, MARGINALLY worse than Pitcher X and has a better overall profile.
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Old 09-12-2012, 01:14 PM   #480 (permalink)
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Dickey did not pitch badly the Mets offense is just terrible as previously noted.

7.0
8 Hits
3 Earned

ERA is now 2.68
205.0 IP
197 K's

Still think he has a better shot
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Old 09-12-2012, 01:19 PM   #481 (permalink)
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Dickey did not pitch badly the Mets offense is just terrible as previously noted.

7.0
8 Hits
3 Earned

ERA is now 2.68
205.0 IP
197 K's

Still think he has a better shot
Apparently, it was bad enough for Gio to just sliiiiiiiiide past him with his 6-inning, 5-walk gem
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Old 09-12-2012, 01:59 PM   #482 (permalink)
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Surely, you guys can give me a few good reasons why Gio has a clear leg up on his competition on September 12, 2012?
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:08 PM   #483 (permalink)
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Surely, you guys can give me a few good reasons why Gio has a clear leg up on his competition on September 12, 2012?
He doesn't have a "clear leg" up on Dickey. It's close. I think Gio having more wins, he has his team in 1st place and his dominant play lately would be his "clear leg" if any. I will say if Gio gets another win, his 20th, on Sunday on espn against Atlanta and pitches 6+ innings giving up 2 or less runs that he'd control his Cy Young destiny from then on.

Last edited by Gio47; 09-12-2012 at 02:12 PM.
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:11 PM   #484 (permalink)
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@ Gio47 and Swingman. Since us stats guys are "nitpicking" preferable stats, Show us some stats that favor Gio over kershaw, chapman and dickey
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:14 PM   #485 (permalink)
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@ Gio47 and Swingman. Since us stats guys are "nitpicking" preferable stats, Show us some stats that favor Gio over kershaw, chapman and dickey
Go dive into that espn Cy young predictor. It uses some crazy formula with all kind of stats. It doesnt play favorites. It's got Gio in 1st place.
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:17 PM   #486 (permalink)
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Go dive into that espn Cy young predictor. It uses some crazy formula with all kind of stats. It doesnt play favorites. It's got Gio in 1st place.
I know you tend to ignore most of what I say in this thread, but here are my thoughts on your calculator:

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Originally Posted by JohnAndrew View Post
Let me go back as far as this calculator lets me:

2011 - 2/2 correctly predicted
2010 - 1/2
2009 - 0/2
2008 - 2/2
2007 - 2/2
2006 - 2/2
2005 - 1/2
2004 - 1/2
2003 - 0/2
2002 - 2/2

That's 13/20 or -- holy hell, here's that number again -- a 65% success rate. Is it nitpicking to second-guess the integrity of a computer program that correctly predicts 65% of its outcomes? From where I come from, 65% is one percentage point away from a big, fat F.

I'm sure there is a lot taken into account in this program and it is impressive that it picked even half of the winners correctly. But to take the results as gospel is a little narrow-minded.
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:18 PM   #487 (permalink)
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He doesn't have a "clear leg" up on Dickey. It's close. I think Gio having more wins, he has his team in 1st place and his dominant play lately would be his "clear leg" if any. I will say if Gio gets another win, his 20th, on Sunday on espn against Atlanta and pitches 6+ innings giving up 2 or less runs that he'd control his Cy Young destiny from then on.
This is the exact reason why Dickey should win.......The Nats are in first place they score a ton of runs whereas the Mets cannot score with the bases loaded and one out yet Dickey still has better numbers.
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:23 PM   #488 (permalink)
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I know you tend to ignore most of what I say in this thread, but here are my thoughts on your calculator:
It's hitting 75% the last 6 years. More often than not its been right and it's purely stat based. So based on that, the odds are in Gio's favor to win. I'm not saying its gospel either but for everyone that's saying Gio doesn't have the stats to win, the cy young predictor which is 100% stats based says differently.
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:39 PM   #489 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Gio47 View Post
He doesn't have a "clear leg" up on Dickey. It's close. I think Gio having more wins, he has his team in 1st place and his dominant play lately would be his "clear leg" if any. I will say if Gio gets another win, his 20th, on Sunday on espn against Atlanta and pitches 6+ innings giving up 2 or less runs that he'd control his Cy Young destiny from then on.
To show how much being in first place matters:

National League Cy Young Winners
2011 - Kershaw - Los Angeles, 3rd place, NL West (beats out Lee and Halladay on 1st place Philly)
2010 - Halladay - Philadelphia, 1st place, NL East
2009 - Timmy Jim - San Francisco, 3rd place, NL West
2008 - Timmy Jim - San Francisco, 4th place, NL West
2007 - Peavy - San Diego, 3rd place, NL West
2006 - Webb - Arizona, 4th place, NL West
2005 - Carpenter - St. Louis, 1st place, NL Central

American League Cy Young Winners
2011 - Verlander - Detroit, 1st place, AL Central
2010 - Hernandez - Seattle, 4th place, AL West
2009 - Greinke - Kansas City, 5th place, AL Central
2008 - Lee - Cleveland, 3rd place, AL Central
2007 - Sabathia - Cleveland, 1st place, AL Central
2006 - Santana - Minnesota, 1st place, AL Central
2005 - Colon - Anaheim, 1st place, AL Central

So, out of the last 14 winners, we see that 6 of them, or about 43%, came from teams that won their divisions. The rest came from teams that failed to even make the playoffs.

As long as you care to make that argument, you can't ignore the fact that Cueto's Reds are 1st place in the AL Central.
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Old 09-12-2012, 02:45 PM   #490 (permalink)
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It's hitting 75% the last 6 years. More often than not its been right and it's purely stat based. So based on that, the odds are in Gio's favor to win. I'm not saying its gospel either but for everyone that's saying Gio doesn't have the stats to win, the cy young predictor which is 100% stats based says differently.
It is right more often than it's wrong, correct, but it's also responsible for this: 2010 MLB Baseball Cy Young Predictor - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Felix Hernandez in 6th place in the year he won? That's a pretty big miss. It seems like the calculator puts a fairly heavy emphasis on WINS, which we've learned does not influence voters as greatly as it has in the past (as evidenced by Felix taking home the award that year).
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Old 09-12-2012, 03:10 PM   #491 (permalink)
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I like how we are all talking about Gio's 16 game scoreless streak. I mean, it's not like Dickey did something like that.

Oh wait... He had a 34 inning scoreless streak, and it would have been a 45.2 inning scoreless streak, if it wasn't for an error. That streak also includes two consecutive 1-hitters, both against contenders in the AL East (Baltimore and Tampa), but that doesn't matter because that happened at the end of May and June.

Just thought I'd throw some food for thought out there.
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Old 09-12-2012, 03:17 PM   #492 (permalink)
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I like how we are all talking about Gio's 16 game scoreless streak. I mean, it's not like Dickey did something like that.

Oh wait... He had a 34 inning scoreless streak, and it would have been a 45.2 inning scoreless streak, if it wasn't for an error. That streak also includes two consecutive 1-hitters, both against contenders in the AL East (Baltimore and Tampa), but that doesn't matter because that happened at the end of May and June.

Just thought I'd throw some food for thought out there.
Yup...wasn't gonna mention that, but I'm glad you brought it up. 44.2 innings pitched without giving up an earned run. That's only good for...oh, 10th all-time in the history of the game
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Old 09-12-2012, 03:21 PM   #493 (permalink)
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Yup...wasn't gonna mention that, but I'm glad you brought it up. 44.2 innings pitched without giving up an earned run. That's only good for...oh, 10th all-time in the history of the game
Whoops, my bad. I must have added wrong. I know we are all excited about Gio's sick, nasty, 16 inning scoreless streak, but I think Dickey's was a little bit more significant.
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Old 09-12-2012, 03:23 PM   #494 (permalink)
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How is Chapman in the "running" for CY Young if he isn't even the best NL Closer?
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Old 09-12-2012, 03:23 PM   #495 (permalink)
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Whoops, my bad. I must have added wrong. I know we are all excited about Gio's sick, nasty, 16 inning scoreless streak, but I think Dickey's was a little bit more significant.
No kidding...absolutely insane, this logic around here.

For anyone who's curious to see what kind of company Dickey put himself in with that streak: Innings Pitched Records by Baseball Almanac
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Old 09-12-2012, 03:29 PM   #496 (permalink)
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No kidding...absolutely insane, this logic around here.

For anyone who's curious to see what kind of company Dickey put himself in with that streak: Innings Pitched Records by Baseball Almanac
That list must be wrong... I didn't see Gio's name ANYWHERE?

In all seriousness though, those are some names to be around. Last person to make that list above Dickey was 1988, and Orel set the record. Pretty neat, to say it lightly
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Old 09-12-2012, 03:34 PM   #497 (permalink)
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How is Chapman in the "running" for CY Young if he isn't even the best NL Closer?
I think this is a very fair question to ask. Kimbrel > Chapman.
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Old 09-12-2012, 03:38 PM   #498 (permalink)
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I think this is a very fair question to ask. Kimbrel > Chapman.
CRAIG KIMBREL - HUNTSVILLE, AL REPRESENT!

Lol, seriously though, didn't realize his numbers are actually better than Chapman's ... but he's only got 80% of Chapman's innings.
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Old 09-12-2012, 05:11 PM   #499 (permalink)
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Well guys, I was curious about what would happen if I "modified" the ESPN Cy Predictor to not take wins and losses, victory bonus, and the "extra shutout point" into account. If you look at the formula, these are just things they kind of tack on, so to speak, so instead of this:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

I just used this:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12)

I'm only considering starting pitchers, so saves are obviously not taken into account. When this formula is used, the results are actually pretty startling. Here are the top 4 vote-getters in the Cy Young for each league from the past 2 years with their corresponding "modified Cy Young Points":

2011 NL
1) Kershaw - 91.30
2) Halladay - 87.15
3) Lee - 87.09
4) Kennedy - 68.83

2011 AL
1) Verlander - 93.28
2) Weaver - 84.43
3) Shields - 79.27
4) Sabathia - 72.02

2010 NL
1) Halladay - 89.51
2) Wainwright - 83.71
3) Jimenez - 69.98
4) Hudson - 66.62

2010 AL
1) Hernandez - 95.04
2) Price - 68.60
3) Sabathia - 64.45
4) Lester - 59.31

To date, here's what your National League Cy Young race looks like using this modified formula:

2012 NL
Kershaw - 69.98
Dickey - 69.31
Cueto - 61.95
Cain - 58.55
Gonzalez - 57.66
Hamels - 57.05
Lohse - 55
Strasburg - 48.94
Miley - 46.69

And for anyone who cares about the American League:

2012 AL
Hernandez - 70.18
Verlander - 66.52
Price - 63.95
Sale - 53.89
Kuroda - 51.52
Weaver - 48.16
Harrison - 43.18
Scherzer - 39.38

Note that for 2011 and 2010, I only calculated the values for the top 4 actual vote-getters, so I don't actually know if anyone past them managed to sneak in or not. Feel free to check my work or go into years' past. I felt that accurately ranking 16 candidates from the past two years was a pretty darn good benchmark, though.
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Old 09-12-2012, 06:16 PM   #500 (permalink)
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Personally I woud have just chopped off the VB points , thus putting Dickey well ahead.

There should be a bonus for "winning 20 games on a losing team" which IF Dickey manages he will be the first NL pitcher to do since Maddux was with the Cubs.
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