NL CY YOUNG

[CubsFanInTX]

Originally Posted by Gio47

It's hitting 75% the last 6 years. More often than not its been right and it's purely stat based. So based on that, the odds are in Gio's favor to win. I'm not saying its gospel either but for everyone that's saying Gio doesn't have the stats to win, the cy young predictor which is 100% stats based says differently.

Why would you only go back six years, because you think it helps your argument? Well, in the last year its been right 100% of the time. Use all the data that is available, it helps work out the variations that inevitably happen. More data means stronger statistics.


Also why is Matt Cain not on this thread (from the few pages I've read). He has put together a very strong year, IMO, and is the only one with a perfect game on the predictors NL list. He doesn't have the wins, because of a subpar offense, but has a very nice ERA at 2.96. A whooping .03 higher than Gio. I think Cain's biggest problem is his lack media attention East Coast > West Coast.

[babyfaceposey]

I think Gio Gonzalez is having the best season of all the guys on the list's here. Over shadowed by Strasburg, but would like to see him win it.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by CubsFanInTX

Why would you only go back six years, because you think it helps your argument? Well, in the last year its been right 100% of the time. Use all the data that is available, it helps work out the variations that inevitably happen. More data means stronger statistics.

Regardless, the Cy Young predictor is hitting 65% with all the data which still means that odds say Gio will win.

Why do I get attacked and not JohnAndrew though? He just calculated the Cy Young predictor but conveniently left out wins and losses, victory bonus, and the "extra shutout point" into account. Gio just happens to lead the league in wins, has the victory bonus and threw a shutout.

[Swingman]

Originally Posted by CubsFanInTX

Why would you only go back six years, because you think it helps your argument? Well, in the last year its been right 100% of the time. Use all the data that is available, it helps work out the variations that inevitably happen. More data means stronger statistics.


Also why is Matt Cain not on this thread (from the few pages I've read). He has put together a very strong year, IMO, and is the only one with a perfect game on the predictors NL list. He doesn't have the wins, because of a subpar offense, but has a very nice ERA at 2.96. A whooping .03 higher than Gio. I think Cain's biggest problem is his lack media attention East Coast > West Coast.

Matt Cain has no chance my friend, sorry. Gio has him beat in every single significant category except innings pitched and whip. Not to mention so do the other 2-3 candidates.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Swingman

Matt Cain has no chance my friend, sorry. Gio has him beat in every single significant category except innings pitched and whip. Not to mention so do the other 2-3 candidates.

No chance? Really? If there's one takeaway I've gotten from this thread, it's that innings pitched matters. A lot.

Frankly, I think Gio will have a really hard time distancing himself from workhorses like Cain and Hamels.

[Swingman]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

No chance? Really? If there's one takeaway I've gotten from this thread, it's that innings pitched matters. A lot.

Frankly, I think Gio will have a harder time getting more votes than workhorses like Cain and Hamels than he will chasing down Dickey, Kershaw and Cueto.

I know you are not a betting man but now I really want you to put your money where your mouth is. So your telling me Gio will come 6th in the voting now? I don't care if we bet 5 cents.. Gio won't get as many votes as Matt Cain or Cole Hamels? How much money do you want to bet on that? I mean based on your stats you must be right.. Innings pitched means every. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE grow a pair and bet this with me.

[Gio47]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

No chance? Really? If there's one takeaway I've gotten from this thread, it's that innings pitched matters. A lot.

Frankly, I think Gio will have a really hard time distancing himself from workhorses like Cain and Hamels.

Cain and Hamels now ahead of Gio as well? Gio in 6th? Just stop already.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Swingman

I know you are not a betting man but now I really want you to put your money where your mouth is. So your telling me Gio will come 6th in the voting now? I don't care if we bet 5 cents.. Gio won't get as many votes as Matt Cain or Cole Hamels? How much money do you want to bet on that? I mean based on your stats you must be right.. Innings pitched means every. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE grow a pair and bet this with me.

Originally Posted by Gio47

Cain and Hamels now ahead of Gio as well? Gio in 6th? Just stop already.

Guys. Did I say Gio will end up in 6th? I will admit I did post a hasty response saying he would have a harder time "getting more votes" than Cain and Hamels (I realized I did not actually believe this), so I revised it to say he would have a hard time "distancing himself" from them. I'm not saying it's impossible by any means. As it stands, I would expect Gio to land anywhere between 3rd and 6th if the season continues as it has gone.

[btimm]

Originally Posted by Swingman

I know you are not a betting man but now I really want you to put your money where your mouth is. So your telling me Gio will come 6th in the voting now? I don't care if we bet 5 cents.. Gio won't get as many votes as Matt Cain or Cole Hamels? How much money do you want to bet on that? I mean based on your stats you must be right.. Innings pitched means every. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE grow a pair and bet this with me.

I will make a bet with you. You take Gio to win the Cy Young in 2012. I say he won't. Take the bet.

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by btimm

I will make a bet with you. You take Gio to win the Cy Young in 2012. I say he won't. Take the bet.

This is really the only bet these guys should be making. They'll probably take you up on that if you let them take Dickey, too.

[WilsonValdez]

Originally Posted by btimm

I will make a bet with you. You take Gio to win the Cy Young in 2012. I say he won't. Take the bet.

If you or anyone end up making a bet with these guys, I'd make sure someone neutral holds the money/cards, because there is no way they're going to pay after they lose...

[JohnAndrew]

Ready for this, guys? I'm going to the Gio fans' work for them and prove myself wrong.

Gio is currently 14th in the National League in innings pitched, behind the likes of titanic workhorses Yovani Gallardo and Wandy Rodriguez. I wanted to see the how high someone with a similar workload could place in the Cy Young voting. Turns out, I don't have to go that far back. I've done the last 3 years and the top SIX starting pitcher vote-getters:

2011 NL
1) Kershaw - 3rd
2) Halladay - 2nd
3) Lee - 4th
4) Kennedy - 5th
5) Hamels - 9th
6) Lincecum - 8th

2011 AL
1) Verlander - 1st
2) Weaver - 5th
3) Shields - 2nd
4) Sabathia - 4th
5) Valverde - This Guy Doesn't Count
6) Wilson - 10th
7) Haren - 3rd

2010 NL
1) Halladay - 1st
2) Wainwright - 3rd
3) Jimenez - 7th
4) Hudson - 4th
5) Johnson - 36th
6) Oswalt - 12th

2010 AL
1) Hernandez - 1st
2) Price - 15th
3) Sabathia - 2nd
4) Lester - 16th
5) Weaver - 4th
6) Buchholz - 36th

2009 NL
1) Lincecum - 3rd
2) Carpenter - 26th
3) Wainwright - 1st
4) Vazquez - 5th
5) Haren - 2nd
NOTE: There were only five vote-getters this year

2009 AL
1) Greinke - 5th
2) Hernandez - 3rd
3) Verlander - 1st
4) Sabathia - 4th
5) Halladay - 2nd
NOTE: There were only five vote-getters this year

So you only have to go back to the American League in 2010 to find a guy who wasn't in the league leaders in innings pitched, but managed to place as high as second in the voting. David Price was 15th in innings pitched (208.2), was 3rd in ERA (2.72) and 11th in WHIP (1.19). He had 188 strikeouts for good measure.

I'd say Gio's profile projects fairly similarly to Price's that year. He'll end up with roughly the same number of innings pitched, far more strikeouts, and likely pretty close to his WHIP and ERA numbers.

It's important to note that C.C. Sabathia that year, who finished 3rd, ranked 2nd in innings pitched, 10th in WHIP (1.19), and 7th in ERA (3.19). Needless to say, there's a handful of guys that'll be putting up numbers that are a bit more impressive than C.C.'s that year.

So there you have it -- a valid counter-argument to my own innings pitched argument, if it only applies to everyone after the top vote-getter. Enjoy guys.

[Swingman]

Originally Posted by WilsonValdez

If you or anyone end up making a bet with these guys, I'd make sure someone neutral holds the money/cards, because there is no way they're going to pay after they lose...

My friend don't make comments when you don't know someones financial state. If I make a bet with anybody and I lose I pay up. I am a man of my word and I live extremely comfortable. Money is no issue. If you have a hard time believing it then put the money up yourself and we shall see who pays who.

[jbellis74]

Thought this thread was about who may win the Cy Young and not who can afford to pay whom regarding a bet lol

I am almost positive that over 75% of the people in the forum have more money than the average Joe

[Swingman]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

Ready for this, guys? I'm going to the Gio fans' work for them and prove myself wrong.

Gio is currently 14th in the National League in innings pitched, behind the likes of titanic workhorses Yovani Gallardo and Wandy Rodriguez. I wanted to see the how high someone with a similar workload could place in the Cy Young voting. Turns out, I don't have to go that far back. I've done the last 3 years and the top SIX starting pitcher vote-getters:

2011 NL
1) Kershaw - 3rd
2) Halladay - 2nd
3) Lee - 4th
4) Kennedy - 5th
5) Hamels - 9th
6) Lincecum - 8th

2011 AL
1) Verlander - 1st
2) Weaver - 5th
3) Shields - 2nd
4) Sabathia - 4th
5) Valverde - This Guy Doesn't Count
6) Wilson - 10th
7) Haren - 3rd

2010 NL
1) Halladay - 1st
2) Wainwright - 3rd
3) Jimenez - 7th
4) Hudson - 4th
5) Johnson - 36th
6) Oswalt - 12th

2010 AL
1) Hernandez - 1st
2) Price - 15th
3) Sabathia - 2nd
4) Lester - 16th
5) Weaver - 4th
6) Buchholz - 36th

2009 NL
1) Lincecum - 3rd
2) Carpenter - 26th
3) Wainwright - 1st
4) Vazquez - 5th
5) Haren - 2nd
NOTE: There were only five vote-getters this year

2009 AL
1) Greinke - 5th
2) Hernandez - 3rd
3) Verlander - 1st
4) Sabathia - 4th
5) Halladay - 2nd
NOTE: There were only five vote-getters this year

So you only have to go back to the American League in 2010 to find a guy who wasn't in the league leaders in innings pitched, but managed to place as high as second in the voting. David Price was 15th in innings pitched (208.2), was 3rd in ERA (2.72) and 11th in WHIP (1.19). He had 188 strikeouts for good measure.

I'd say Gio's profile projects fairly similarly to Price's that year. He'll end up with roughly the same number of innings pitched, far more strikeouts, and likely pretty close to his WHIP and ERA numbers.

It's important to note that C.C. Sabathia that year, who finished 3rd, ranked 2nd in innings pitched, 10th in WHIP (1.19), and 7th in ERA (3.19). Needless to say, there's a handful of guys that'll be putting up numbers that are a bit more impressive than C.C.'s that year.

So there you have it -- a valid counter-argument to my own innings pitched argument, if it only applies to everyone after the top vote-getter. Enjoy guys.

Crazy thing is I stopped ready your long, in depth posts a long time ago so please stop wasting your time and go do something productive like making some money instead of trying to prove us wrong. I have no interest in what you are trying to prove to me. I stopped arguing with you until you told me Gio would get less votes than Cain and Hamels which like you said, you don't even believe. Don't waste your time anymore, I don't care, honestly I don't lol


BTW go check out your USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY for this week..... Tell me who's on the cover

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by Swingman

Crazy thing is I stopped ready your long, in depth posts a long time ago so please stop wasting your time and go do something productive like making some money instead of trying to prove us wrong. I have no interest in what you are trying to prove to me. I stopped arguing with you until you told me Gio would get less votes than Cain and Hamels which like you said, you don't even believe. Don't waste your time anymore, I don't care, honestly I don't lol


BTW go check out your USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY for this week..... Tell me who's on the cover

I write my long posts for myself and anyone else who's interested in objective analysis. Believe me, it's very clear you and Gio47 have not read any of my long posts.

[JohnAndrew]

Also, let's not forget how this sh!tstorm started:

Originally Posted by Swingman

How is GIO GONZALEZ not being mentioned here? Guy is hands down best pitcher in the league right now on a 1st place team. Dickey and Cueto have never done anything in their careers, this is Gio's 3rd consecutive 15+ win season... He should be at the top of the list.

If there's anyone who still truly believes that statement, please speak now. I promise I won't go off on a long-winded counter-argument -- I'll probably just laugh at you.

[CubsFanInTX]

Originally Posted by Gio47

Regardless, the Cy Young predictor is hitting 65% with all the data which still means that odds say Gio will win.

Why do I get attacked and not JohnAndrew though? He just calculated the Cy Young predictor but conveniently left out wins and losses, victory bonus, and the "extra shutout point" into account. Gio just happens to lead the league in wins, has the victory bonus and threw a shutout.

I wasn't "attacking" you I was merely pointing out that you weren't following good statistical analysis.

I agree with JohnAndrew's calculations more than I do with the Predictor's. If I had a vote, I would take the predictor method and remove the VB, it means nothing to this Award that you were on a great team. That alone would put Dickey way ahead. A bonus would be added for CG, no hitters, and perfect games. Wins are an important stat so I would keep them in there but lower the bonus ((W*4) -(L*2)) or something. I think shutouts are important so they would stay. Since there is no closer award saves have to be kept in there too, although I think there should be a separate award- different topic. My formula to determine who I would vote for would be as follows.

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*3) + Shutouts + ((W*4)-(L*2)) + (CG) + (No-Nos*2) + (Peferct * 4)

Cain would get one no- no and 1 perfect game (they compound).

I haven't put numbers in here so I don't know who would actually come out on top. My guess would be Dickey since the removal of the VB doesn't hurt him. In the end, the predictor is right 65% of the time because it doesn't and can't take human element into account. The way the pitcher pitches at the end is huge and each voter has a different opinion on what matters most, just like everyone here. I wonder if they will give it to Dickey just because of his age/story, Gio is young and can compete for the award for years to come. Dickey had a late start and is likely done in 5 years (he'll be 42). The story behind the player has won many awards in this and other sports (most noticeably the Heisman) so we can see how it plays out. Any of these guys deserve it and I don't mind if any of them win it.

[jbellis74]

So after the smoke clears and lets just say Dickey wins.....

Do the Mets then trade him? I mean they are terrible in a rebuilding mode and have a nice young nucleus of pitchers in the minors.

I would guess they could get a lot for someone that just won the Cy Young and is a knuckleball pitcher (Because they can pitch longer as far as a career goes)

I am curious as a Mets fan what they could get for him.

The Mets hold a $5 million option on Dickey's services for 2013, which they will of course exercise. After next season, however, he'll be eligible for free agency.

Not surprisingly, GM Sandy Alderson would prefer to see to matters before Dickey hits the market. However, as Andy McCullough of the Newark Star-Ledger reports, the Mets in the early weeks of this season talked about a modest extension for Dickey, but they ulimately -- and understandably (seriously, who among us saw Dickey's 2012 successes coming?) -- opted for a "wait and see" approach. Needless to say, Dickey's market position has changed just a bit.

Also complicating things for both sides is the fact that there aren't any contractual roadmaps for knuckleballers who peak at age 37."With his kind of knuckleball, you've got to believe [he can last] three or four more years, at least," one rival NL exec told McCullough. "He's got such great makeup. He's going to keep himself in great condition. He's going to keep that edge for quite a while."

Nothing to do with pitching here either but he just won the Branch Rickey Award.
Mets pitcher R.A. Dickey wins Branch Rickey Award - WSJ.com

New York Mets pitcher R.A. Dickey is the winner of the 2012 Branch Rickey Award in recognition of his work distributing baseball equipment and medical supplies in Central and South America.

Created by the Rotary Club of Denver, the Branch Rickey Award honors individuals in baseball who contribute to their communities and are strong role models for young people.

Each year, major league teams nominate a player, coach or executive, either active or retired, for the award, which is named in honor of the late baseball executive known for breaking baseball's color barrier by signing Jackie Robinson.

[Zacky1053]

Originally Posted by Swingman

Haha kid has been pitching lights out, might as well!

Cy Young is pushing it but damn he's been awesome since he became a starter:

7-0 with a 0.80 ERA in 67 innings since the AS Break.

[JohnAndrew]

Cain and Hamels will be looking to make big statements tonight. Hamels in particular has the favorable matchup at Houston.

I think Cole especially can make things pretty interesting down the stretch. Him and Dickey are the only pitchers in the National League who average more than 7 innings/game started. Going into tonight, he ranks 8th in the league in IP with only 27 GS (the leaders have 30, most of the other guys have 29). He has a little bit of work to do with his other numbers (3.03 ERA -- 8th, 1.119 WHIP -- 6th), no doubt, but the Phillies are gunning for that second wild card spot, and they'll be relying on their big guns to go deep into these last few games since their bullpen has proven to be...errr, shall we say, unreliable, at best?

Here's where Hamels lines up the rest of the way:

9/13 @ Houston (tonight)
9/19 @ NYM
9/26 vs. Washington
10/1 @ Washington

Those last two starts against the Nats certainly loom large, but if the Phils are still in striking distance of a playoff start at the end of September, I would expect that they do not hold Cole back as long as he's giving them quality innings.

Cain is looking very nice at this point as well, sitting at just a tick under 7 innings/game started. Going into tonight, he's 4th in the National League in innings pitched, 6th in ERA at 2.96 and 2nd in WHIP at 1.034. By most accounts, it looks like he has a slightly better overall profile than Hamels.

Here's how he lines up the rest of the way:

9/13 @ Arizona (tonight)
9/19 vs. Colorado
9/25 vs. Arizona
9/30 @ San Diego

So there's nobody coming up who makes me shake in my boots. With the Giants sitting fairly comfortably atop the NL West, you have to wonder if they might take the foot off the gas with Matt a little bit so he feels sharp for October? Why send him out there for 7 or 8 when he can give us 5 or 6 strong? I know we're only talking about 1-2 innings per game over the next four starts, but 7 or 8 innings of quality (or not so quality) ball could be what swings a few key numbers in one candidate's favor at the end of the year.

I still think both Cole and Matt have to make up a lot of ground against Clayton and R.A. Johnny needs to get back on track very quickly, as well.

Here's hoping for an exciting race down the stretch!

[calculusdork]

I came across this earlier today, and it gave me a laugh in light of this thread.

xkcd: Sports

[JohnAndrew]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

I came across this earlier today, and it gave me a laugh in light of this thread.

xkcd: Sports

LOL! Awesome

[JohnAndrew]

I feel like I'm treading on thin ice when I talk about Kyle Lohse, because at any given point in time, a scrub team could light him up for 8 runs and I wouldn't blink twice. But the fact is, he has been a mainstay on a team that was perhaps expecting slightly better things out of their presumed ace in Adam Wainwright. 7th in innings pitched, 4th in ERA at 2.81, 4th in WHIP at 1.089. Find me the guy who predicted Kyle to be top 5 in the National League in those last two categories in mid-September and I'd...I don't know, buy him a beer, or something.

Here's how Kyle's schedule looks the rest of the way:

9/18 vs. Houston
9/23 @ Cubbies
9/29 vs. Washington

It looks like Cupcake City next week with something of a taller order against the Nationals on the 29th. He's certainly got time to bring that ERA down to Dickey/Kershaw/Cueto levels.

Serious question. Adam Wainwright is currently slated to pitch the last game of the season on October 3rd against the Reds. Lohse would ostensibly pitch Game 163 if there was some kind of sudden-death one-game playoff for the second wildcard spot. However, in a do-or-die situation in Game 162, who do you go with? The Cards could leverage one of their upcoming days off to line up either guy. I'm also seeing now that Chris Carpenter could complete his miraculous comeback and potentially return to rotation sometime in September.

If you're the Cardinals, what pitcher do you want on the mound for your do-or-die Game 162? I would take the following guys in order depending on availability:

1) Chris Carpenter
2) Kyle Lohse
3) Adam Wainwright

What do y'all think?

[ChaseSeib]

Originally Posted by JohnAndrew

I feel like I'm treading on thin ice when I talk about Kyle Lohse, because at any given point in time, a scrub team could light him up for 8 runs and I wouldn't blink twice. But the fact is, he has been a mainstay on a team that was perhaps expecting slightly better things out of their presumed ace in Adam Wainwright. 7th in innings pitched, 4th in ERA at 2.81, 4th in WHIP at 1.089. Find me the guy who predicted Kyle to be top 5 in the National League in those last two categories in mid-September and I'd...I don't know, buy him a beer, or something.

Here's how Kyle's schedule looks the rest of the way:

9/18 vs. Houston
9/23 @ Cubbies
9/29 vs. Washington

It looks like Cupcake City next week with something of a taller order against the Nationals on the 29th. He's certainly got time to bring that ERA down to Dickey/Kershaw/Cueto levels.

Serious question. Adam Wainwright is currently slated to pitch the last game of the season on October 3rd against the Reds. Lohse would ostensibly pitch Game 163 if there was some kind of sudden-death one-game playoff for the second wildcard spot. However, in a do-or-die situation in Game 162, who do you go with? The Cards could leverage one of their upcoming days off to line up either guy. I'm also seeing now that Chris Carpenter could complete his miraculous comeback and potentially return to rotation sometime in September.

If you're the Cardinals, what pitcher do you want on the mound for your do-or-die Game 162? I would take the following guys in order depending on availability:

1) Chris Carpenter
2) Kyle Lohse
3) Adam Wainwright

What do y'all think?

Jamie Garcia