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Old 09-24-2012, 04:49 PM   #776 (permalink)
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OK guys, I did this once before and I want to do it one more time. The Cy predictor keeps coming up as it exists in its original form. There are two things that need to be taken into consideration:

a) As discussed, it takes wins and team's division placing into account, which are two things that the pitcher is NOT directly responsible for.

b) The formula was written in a 2004 book. Note that voting procedures have changed since then (voters now get 5 names to put on the ballot)


I did this a few weeks ago and I want to do it one more time. I just modified the Cy predictor to remove wins, losses and "victory bonus" (things a pitcher ultimately does not control) as well as the shutout bonus, which would benefit Dickey the most, anyway. So instead of this:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

I just used this:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12)

I'm only considering starting pitchers, so saves are obviously not taken into account. I actually ended up doing this for every single vote-getter from the past two years (when the balloting expanded to five names). It has correctly chosen the winner and has done pretty well ranking the subsequent vote-getters. So here are all the vote-getters from the past few years and how they scored with the modified formula:

2011 NL
1. Kershaw - 91.30
2. Halladay - 87.15
3. Lee - 87.09
4. Kennedy 68.83
5. Hamels - 69.17
6. Lincecum - 72.89
7. Gallardo - 51.44
8. Cain - 67.06
9. Axford - RELIEVER
9. Kimbrel - RELIEVER
11. Bumgarner - 56.62
11. Vogelsong - 57.40

2011 AL
1. Verlander - 93.28
2. Weaver - 84.43
3. Shields - 79.27
4. Sabathia - 72.02
5. Valverde - RELIEVER
6. Wilson - 68.24
7. Haren - 64.41
8. Rivera - RELIEVER
9. Beckett - 59.81
10. Romero - 66.83
11. Robertson - RELIEVER

2010 NL
1. Halladay - 89.51
2. Wainwright - 83.71
3. Jimenez - 69.98
4. Hudson - 65.79
5. Johnson - 70.54
6. Oswalt - 68.68
7. Wilson - RELIEVER
8. Bell - RELIEVER
8. Latos - 58.34
10. Lincecum - 56.21
10. Myers - 61.26
12. Arroyo - 36.90
12. Cain - 60.82

2010 AL
1. Hernandez - 94.85
2. Price - 68.59
3. Sabathia - 64.45
4. Lester - 59.31
5. Weaver - 69.05
6. Buchholz - 61.48
7. Lee - 58.38
8. Soriano - RELIEVER
9. Cahill - 54.09
10. Soria - RELIEVER
11. Liriano - 46.23
11. Verlander - 58.88

So it looks like Weaver should've placed much higher in the AL 2010 and Johnson probably could've ended up a little bit higher in the NL in 2010. 2011 looks pretty good…Timmy Jim could've gone a little higher, I guess. But overall, this formula *seems* to rank these guys pretty well according to where they ended up in the voting.

Anyway, here are some candidates in this year's Nationals League (UPDATED from a few weeks back):

1. Dickey - 74.64
2. Kershaw - 72.18
3. Cain - 64.60
4. Gonzalez - 63.16
5. Lohse - 62.06
6. Cueto - 62.03
7. Hamels - 60.80
8. Medlen - 57.44
9. Zimmermann - 56.52
10. Lee - 56.25
11. Bumgarner - 55.10
12. Strasburg - 48.94
13. Miley - 48.59
14. Latos - 45.46

So, for whatever that's worth...again, I'm not saying Gio will finish 4th or Dickey will win based on these calculations. The one thing that's worth mentioning is that the general field is a little bit weaker than it has been in recent years (league ERA leaders from the past two years have been 2.27, 2.28, 2.30 and 2.40 -- we don't have any guys like that this year). So yeah...not trying to open a can of worms, just introducing a different perspective that seems to have done a pretty decent job since balloting expanded to 5 players in 2010.

Let me know your thoughts
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Old 09-24-2012, 06:12 PM   #777 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnAndrew View Post
OK guys, I did this once before and I want to do it one more time. The Cy predictor keeps coming up as it exists in its original form. There are two things that need to be taken into consideration:

a) As discussed, it takes wins and team's division placing into account, which are two things that the pitcher is NOT directly responsible for.

b) The formula was written in a 2004 book. Note that voting procedures have changed since then (voters now get 5 names to put on the ballot)


I did this a few weeks ago and I want to do it one more time. I just modified the Cy predictor to remove wins, losses and "victory bonus" (things a pitcher ultimately does not control) as well as the shutout bonus, which would benefit Dickey the most, anyway. So instead of this:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

I just used this:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12)

I'm only considering starting pitchers, so saves are obviously not taken into account. I actually ended up doing this for every single vote-getter from the past two years (when the balloting expanded to five names). It has correctly chosen the winner and has done pretty well ranking the subsequent vote-getters. So here are all the vote-getters from the past few years and how they scored with the modified formula:

2011 NL
1. Kershaw - 91.30
2. Halladay - 87.15
3. Lee - 87.09
4. Kennedy 68.83
5. Hamels - 69.17
6. Lincecum - 72.89
7. Gallardo - 51.44
8. Cain - 67.06
9. Axford - RELIEVER
9. Kimbrel - RELIEVER
11. Bumgarner - 56.62
11. Vogelsong - 57.40

2011 AL
1. Verlander - 93.28
2. Weaver - 84.43
3. Shields - 79.27
4. Sabathia - 72.02
5. Valverde - RELIEVER
6. Wilson - 68.24
7. Haren - 64.41
8. Rivera - RELIEVER
9. Beckett - 59.81
10. Romero - 66.83
11. Robertson - RELIEVER

2010 NL
1. Halladay - 89.51
2. Wainwright - 83.71
3. Jimenez - 69.98
4. Hudson - 65.79
5. Johnson - 70.54
6. Oswalt - 68.68
7. Wilson - RELIEVER
8. Bell - RELIEVER
8. Latos - 58.34
10. Lincecum - 56.21
10. Myers - 61.26
12. Arroyo - 36.90
12. Cain - 60.82

2010 AL
1. Hernandez - 94.85
2. Price - 68.59
3. Sabathia - 64.45
4. Lester - 59.31
5. Weaver - 69.05
6. Buchholz - 61.48
7. Lee - 58.38
8. Soriano - RELIEVER
9. Cahill - 54.09
10. Soria - RELIEVER
11. Liriano - 46.23
11. Verlander - 58.88

So it looks like Weaver should've placed much higher in the AL 2010 and Johnson probably could've ended up a little bit higher in the NL in 2010. 2011 looks pretty good…Timmy Jim could've gone a little higher, I guess. But overall, this formula *seems* to rank these guys pretty well according to where they ended up in the voting.

Anyway, here are some candidates in this year's Nationals League (UPDATED from a few weeks back):

1. Dickey - 74.64
2. Kershaw - 72.18
3. Cain - 64.60
4. Gonzalez - 63.16
5. Lohse - 62.06
6. Cueto - 62.03
7. Hamels - 60.80
8. Medlen - 57.44
9. Zimmermann - 56.52
10. Lee - 56.25
11. Bumgarner - 55.10
12. Strasburg - 48.94
13. Miley - 48.59
14. Latos - 45.46

So, for whatever that's worth...again, I'm not saying Gio will finish 4th or Dickey will win based on these calculations. The one thing that's worth mentioning is that the general field is a little bit weaker than it has been in recent years (league ERA leaders from the past two years have been 2.27, 2.28, 2.30 and 2.40 -- we don't have any guys like that this year). So yeah...not trying to open a can of worms, just introducing a different perspective that seems to have done a pretty decent job since balloting expanded to 5 players in 2010.

Let me know your thoughts
Very information, but you probably opened a can of worms hahah
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Old 09-24-2012, 06:15 PM   #778 (permalink)
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sorry but Kimbrel locked this award up yesterday with his two pop out, 1 K performance.
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Old 09-24-2012, 06:38 PM   #779 (permalink)
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sorry but Kimbrel locked this award up yesterday with his two pop out, 1 K performance.
Just 5 more outings before the ERA dips below 1

Kimbrel / Medlen both finish in top 5 of voting.
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Old 09-24-2012, 11:11 PM   #780 (permalink)
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To further prove that wins are a complete joke of a statistic to use to evaluate pitching, I give you the following examples:

AL:
Phil Hughes: 16 wins, 6.00 IP/start, 4.05 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 157 K
Jake Peavy: 11 wins, ~6.7 IP/start, 3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 180 K
You really telling me Hughes > Peavy and that wins represents skill level?

NL:
Lance Lynn: 16 wins, < 5 IP/start, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 170 K
Clayton Kershaw: 12 wins, ~ 6.7 IP/start, 2.68 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 211 K
So Lynn > Kershaw?
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Old 09-24-2012, 11:19 PM   #781 (permalink)
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To further prove that wins are a complete joke of a statistic to use to evaluate pitching, I give you the following examples:

AL:
Phil Hughes: 16 wins, 6.00 IP/start, 4.05 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 157 K
Jake Peavy: 11 wins, ~6.7 IP/start, 3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 180 K
You really telling me Hughes > Peavy and that wins represents skill level?

NL:
Lance Lynn: 16 wins, < 5 IP/start, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 170 K
Clayton Kershaw: 12 wins, ~ 6.7 IP/start, 2.68 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 211 K
So Lynn > Kershaw?
You are assuming that I think that wins are everything,

Strikeouts
Darvish 214, sale 185. Are you telling me darvish is a better pitcher than sale?
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Old 09-24-2012, 11:19 PM   #782 (permalink)
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This is going to be so close, Kimbrel, Dickey, Kershaw, Cain, and Gonzalez may all end up tying....
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Old 09-24-2012, 11:29 PM   #783 (permalink)
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I'm going to start up a new topic: how much value do quality starts hold in the cy young race. I personally don't think very much cause you could pitch 6 innings and give up 3 runs ever time out and still have a bad era
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Old 09-25-2012, 07:06 AM   #784 (permalink)
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@ Chase

At least a strikeout is a measure that is controlled by the pitcher, unlike wins. But no of course you cannot use strikeouts exclusively, that would ridiculously stupid.

As for your quality start comment, I agree they aren't a great measure to use, but they do show how often a pitcher generally keeps his team in the game and it is a fairly good way to determine how consistent a pitcher is throughout the year. It's actually why I thought that the Cy Young last year in the AL was between only Verlander and Weaver, and that CC was excluded. Both Verlander and Weaver had about 90% of their starts as QS. But CC was only around 60-65%. To me, that is a pretty big difference in the consistency throughout the year and can be used as a way to differentiate between pitchers.
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Old 09-25-2012, 09:41 AM   #785 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by JohnAndrew View Post
I did this a few weeks ago and I want to do it one more time. I just modified the Cy predictor to remove wins, losses and "victory bonus" (things a pitcher ultimately does not control) as well as the shutout bonus, which would benefit Dickey the most, anyway. So instead of this:
I know it may seem like I'm beating the same drum over and over again, but I'd like to reiterate ... there is a difference between what we perceive makes a pitcher good, and how voters tend to vote for the Cy Young award. Your revised formula is, IMO, a solid method for measuring a pitcher's performance. But the original formula probably does a much better job of reflecting how voters will tend to vote. That is, after all, the formula's job. The formula might say that Gio Gonzalez is 4th, but I bet you he'll finish 2nd.
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Old 09-25-2012, 10:21 AM   #786 (permalink)
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I know it may seem like I'm beating the same drum over and over again, but I'd like to reiterate ... there is a difference between what we perceive makes a pitcher good, and how voters tend to vote for the Cy Young award. Your revised formula is, IMO, a solid method for measuring a pitcher's performance. But the original formula probably does a much better job of reflecting how voters will tend to vote. That is, after all, the formula's job. The formula might say that Gio Gonzalez is 4th, but I bet you he'll finish 2nd.


Very well put. Gio will finish 1st or 2nd in this race because the truth is Dickey has pitched his butt off. He will not 3rd or even close to 4th though.
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Old 09-25-2012, 10:44 AM   #787 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by calculusdork View Post
I know it may seem like I'm beating the same drum over and over again, but I'd like to reiterate ... there is a difference between what we perceive makes a pitcher good, and how voters tend to vote for the Cy Young award. Your revised formula is, IMO, a solid method for measuring a pitcher's performance. But the original formula probably does a much better job of reflecting how voters will tend to vote. That is, after all, the formula's job. The formula might say that Gio Gonzalez is 4th, but I bet you he'll finish 2nd.
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Very well put. Gio will finish 1st or 2nd in this race because the truth is Dickey has pitched his butt off. He will not 3rd or even close to 4th though.
Amen. All I wanted to do was attempt to improve a bit on a dated formula that managed to put Felix Hernandez, far and away the AL's best pitcher in 2010, in 6th place that year. I think it does an OK job. Of course, there will never be a magic bullet formula for predicting voting trends. And of course, none of these guys are Felix Hernandez circa 2010, either. Nor do we have anybody who's gonna run away with the Pitching Triple Crown like Verlander and Kershaw did last year. So yeah...it's really just too close for any formula to predict, anyway
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Old 09-25-2012, 03:51 PM   #788 (permalink)
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Cueto against the Milwaukee tonight...last week's start was moderately encouraging, but let's not forget -- that was the Cubbies, and the Brew Crew they are not. This has the potential to get ugly
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Old 09-25-2012, 04:50 PM   #789 (permalink)
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Gio pitching Thursday in Philadelphia against Doc. That game will be intense, I will be there
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Old 09-25-2012, 04:52 PM   #790 (permalink)
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Gio pitching Thursday in Philadelphia against Doc. That game will be intense, I will be there
Awesome! The Phils need Doc to get his act together and FAST. If they're still in contention for that second wildcard on Thursday, he's gotta match Gio pitch-for-pitch.
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Old 09-25-2012, 10:49 PM   #791 (permalink)
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Gio pitching Thursday in Philadelphia against Doc. That game will be intense, I will be there
Good possibility Doc won't be pitching Thursday heard their pushing his next start back a couple of days thats if they don't shut him down which at this point is probably best he just ain't him self
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:08 AM   #792 (permalink)
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Cueto with a fine outing tonight...showing that he kinda, sorta, maybe might want to possibly be considered for this thing (despite his wretched September).
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:07 PM   #793 (permalink)
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i apologize for earlier saying kimbrel had it wrapped up.

...now he does. 1.0 IP, 0h, 0bb, 4k

and this just seems mean: Called strikes-Swinging strikes-Foul balls-In Play strikes: C Kimbrel 2-6-5-1

ONE ball in play? jesus.
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:12 PM   #794 (permalink)
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i apologize for earlier saying kimbrel had it wrapped up.

...now he does. 1.0 IP, 0h, 0bb, 4k

and this just seems mean: Called strikes-Swinging strikes-Foul balls-In Play strikes: C Kimbrel 2-6-5-1

ONE ball in play? jesus.
The last closer to win Cy Young went 55 for 55 in save opportunities. Kimbrel is 40 for 43. I'd say he's still got some work to do.
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:23 PM   #795 (permalink)
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The last closer to win Cy Young went 55 for 55 in save opportunities. Kimbrel is 40 for 43. I'd say he's still got some work to do.
Going back in time would be a good start ...
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:32 PM   #796 (permalink)
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The last closer to win Cy Young went 55 for 55 in save opportunities. Kimbrel is 40 for 43. I'd say he's still got some work to do.
i apologize i forgot save are the only stat that matters.
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:36 PM   #797 (permalink)
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So is Cueto still a candidate? He is 19-9 now after last night!
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:41 PM   #798 (permalink)
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i apologize i forgot save are the only stat that matters.
Uhhh...for a closer, it's pretty damn important.

Gagne pitched in 77 games in 2003. Kimbrel is not coming close to that -- sorry.
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:42 PM   #799 (permalink)
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So is Cueto still a candidate? He is 19-9 now after last night!
I think he's still a fringe candidate...he really did a number on his resume back in late August/early September.
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Old 09-26-2012, 11:44 PM   #800 (permalink)
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I think he's still a fringe candidate...he really did a number on his resume back in late August/early September.
Yea he sure did do that. I think he has 1 less in the win column than Gonzalez in the NL.
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