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Old 09-27-2012, 10:12 PM   #901 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by btimm View Post
Depends what you mean by mention, but on second thought, nope, no mention at all. Not even worthy of sniffing the top 5, sorry.
Then please tell me who the top 5 should be?? Also where Kimbrel should be ranked?

Thanks.
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:12 PM   #902 (permalink)
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Depends what you mean by mention, but on second thought, nope, no mention at all. Not even worthy of sniffing the top 5, sorry.
historic numbers and no real dominant starters in the NL = top 5
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:21 PM   #903 (permalink)
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If I had a vote (and I guess it's a good thing I don't because I'm obviously full of sh!t), here is a list of guys I would vote for before Kimbrel (in no particular order):

R.A. Dickey
Johnny Cueto
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Cain
Kyle Lohse
Gio Gonzalez
Jordan Zimmermann
Stephen Strasburg
Kris Medlen
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Wade Miley
Mat Latos

I'd probably put Kimbrel ahead of Aroldis Chapman (barely) and Madison Bumgarner.
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:31 PM   #904 (permalink)
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k yeah you're just a troll. g'night.
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:32 PM   #905 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by JohnAndrew View Post
If I had a vote (and I guess it's a good thing I don't because I'm obviously full of sh!t), here is a list of guys I would vote for before Kimbrel (in no particular order):

R.A. Dickey
Johnny Cueto
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Cain
Kyle Lohse
Gio Gonzalez
Jordan Zimmermann
Stephen Strasburg
Kris Medlen
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Wade Miley
Mat Latos

I'd probably put Kimbrel ahead of Aroldis Chapman (barely) and Madison Bumgarner.
If you go by ESPN, Kimbrel is ranked #6, behind Chapman, which to me doesn't make any sense. Kimbrel has more saves, better save %, better ERA, better WHIP, better Avg(opposing), better K/9, pretty much every category except IP and K's.

2012 MLB Baseball Cy Young Predictor - Major League Baseball - ESPN
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:32 PM   #906 (permalink)
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k yeah you're just a troll. g'night.
Nighty night...don't forget to finish yer homework!
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:36 PM   #907 (permalink)
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If you go by ESPN, Kimbrel is ranked #6, behind Chapman, which to me doesn't make any sense. Kimbrel has more saves, better save %, better ERA, better WHIP, better Avg(opposing), better K/9, pretty much every category except IP and K's.

2012 MLB Baseball Cy Young Predictor - Major League Baseball - ESPN
Keep in mind that predictor was written for a book published in 2004. Also, flip to the 2010 results and see where Felix finished. That predictor is kinda full of it.
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:41 PM   #908 (permalink)
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Keep in mind that predictor was written for a book published in 2004. Also, flip to the 2010 results and see where Felix finished. That predictor is kinda full of it.
It's gotten 7 out of the last 10 with one more being in the top 2. Yeah I might not agree with it , but I thought I'd still throw it out there. If Kimbrel finishes the year with a sub 1.00 ERA he should be in the top 5, or at the absolute very least in the top 10.
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:43 PM   #909 (permalink)
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the predictor cares about w/l, which is a crapshoot for starters, can be even worse for relievers.
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:58 PM   #910 (permalink)
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the predictor cares about w/l, which is a crapshoot for starters, can be even worse for relievers.
They also have the VB which in this case is why Chapman is ahead of Kimbrel
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Old 09-27-2012, 11:05 PM   #911 (permalink)
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It's gotten 5 out of the last 8, with one more being in the top 2. Yeah I might not agree with it 100%, but I thought I'd still throw it out there. If Kimbrel finishes the year with a sub 1.00 ERA he should be in the top 5, or at the absolute very least in the top 10.
I hear ya...listen, it would not surprise me if Kimbrel ended up in the top 5 in the end. I know there are plenty of voters who give more credit to closers than I or any other voter with a pro-starter mindset do. Since the voting expanded to 5 names in 2010, there has been some clear separation in the top candidates from the second tier (Verlander and Felix in 2011 and 2010, Kershaw-Halladay-Lee in 2011 and Doc again in 2010). I would expect this to be the closest race since balloting expanded, and while there are no runaways in this race, there is an abundance of very, very good candidates. You can make legitimate arguments for Dickey, Gonzalez, Kershaw and (to a certain extent) Cueto to win. That's 4 guys right there.

After that, you have two top 5 ERA candidates in Lohse and Cain, both of which will finish with over TRIPLE the IP that Kimbrel has. Medlen has been pitching out of this world and I would expect him to sneak onto a number of ballots (and perhaps very high on a few). Hamels has been a rock on that snakebitten Phillies team and Zimmermann has quietly put together a very fine campaign in the shadow of Strasburg and Gonzalez.

Let's face it: there are just a lot of excellent starting pitcher candidates this year. Chapman has made enough of a case where Kimbrel will have enough trouble distinguishing himself from Aroldis, let alone a dozen fantastic starters. But like I said, many voters will hold these dominant closers in very high esteem. I can't say I agree with it and I would imagine that not everyone who has a vote agrees with it either. I just don't know how you look at a guy who's pitched 65 innings and say, "he's the best pitcher in the league".
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Old 09-27-2012, 11:11 PM   #912 (permalink)
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I hear ya...listen, it would not surprise me if Kimbrel ended up in the top 5 in the end. I know there are plenty of voters who give more credit to closers than I or any other voter with a pro-starter mindset do. Since the voting expanded to 5 names in 2010, there has been some clear separation in the top candidates from the second tier (Verlander and Felix in 2011 and 2010, Kershaw-Halladay-Lee in 2011 and Doc again in 2010). I would expect this to be the closest race since balloting expanded, and while there are no runaways in this race, there is an abundance of very, very good candidates. You can make legitimate arguments for Dickey, Gonzalez, Kershaw and (to a certain extent) Cueto to win. That's 4 guys right there.

After that, you have two top 5 ERA candidates in Lohse and Cain, both of which will finish with over TRIPLE the IP that Kimbrel has. Medlen has been pitching out of this world and I would expect him to sneak onto a number of ballots (and perhaps very high on a few). Hamels has been a rock on that snakebitten Phillies team and Zimmermann has quietly put together a very fine campaign in the shadow of Strasburg and Gonzalez.

Let's face it: there are just a lot of excellent starting pitcher candidates this year. Chapman has made enough of a case where Kimbrel will have enough trouble distinguishing himself from Aroldis, let alone a dozen fantastic starters. But like I said, many voters will hold these dominant closers in very high esteem. I can't say I agree with it and I would imagine that not everyone who has a vote agrees with it either. I just don't know how you look at a guy who's pitched 65 innings and say, "he's the best pitcher in the league".
Agree with what you said for the most part. I don't think Kimbrel is "the best pitcher in the league", I think he is the best Closer in the NL this year(Better then Chapman). I am also not in favor of a closer winning CY Young, but I think Kimbrel and Rodney(and Chapman if you want) are having a great year and stand a chance of finishing in the top 5/10
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Old 09-27-2012, 11:19 PM   #913 (permalink)
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Agree with what you said for the most part. I don't think Kimbrel is "the best pitcher in the league", I think he is the best Closer in the NL this year(Better then Chapman). I am also not in favor of a closer winning CY Young, but I think Kimbrel and Rodney(and Chapman if you want) are having a great year and stand a chance of finishing in the top 5/10
I will be absolutely shocked if Kimbrel doesn't finish top 10. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him finish 5th.

I'm not saying I agree with it, but you have to figure that's the way it'll go
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Old 09-27-2012, 11:32 PM   #914 (permalink)
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I hear ya...listen, it would not surprise me if Kimbrel ended up in the top 5 in the end. I know there are plenty of voters who give more credit to closers than I or any other voter with a pro-starter mindset do. Since the voting expanded to 5 names in 2010, there has been some clear separation in the top candidates from the second tier (Verlander and Felix in 2011 and 2010, Kershaw-Halladay-Lee in 2011 and Doc again in 2010). I would expect this to be the closest race since balloting expanded, and while there are no runaways in this race, there is an abundance of very, very good candidates. You can make legitimate arguments for Dickey, Gonzalez, Kershaw and (to a certain extent) Cueto to win. That's 4 guys right there.

After that, you have two top 5 ERA candidates in Lohse and Cain, both of which will finish with over TRIPLE the IP that Kimbrel has. Medlen has been pitching out of this world and I would expect him to sneak onto a number of ballots (and perhaps very high on a few). Hamels has been a rock on that snakebitten Phillies team and Zimmermann has quietly put together a very fine campaign in the shadow of Strasburg and Gonzalez.

Let's face it: there are just a lot of excellent starting pitcher candidates this year. Chapman has made enough of a case where Kimbrel will have enough trouble distinguishing himself from Aroldis, let alone a dozen fantastic starters. But like I said, many voters will hold these dominant closers in very high esteem. I can't say I agree with it and I would imagine that not everyone who has a vote agrees with it either. I just don't know how you look at a guy who's pitched 65 innings and say, "he's the best pitcher in the league".
...kimbrel has trouble distinguishing himself from aroldis? does beating him in every category not count?
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Old 09-27-2012, 11:49 PM   #915 (permalink)
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...kimbrel has trouble distinguishing himself from aroldis? does beating him in every category not count?
More appearances, more innings pitched, higher WAR.
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Old 09-27-2012, 11:55 PM   #916 (permalink)
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he doesn't need more appearances. cause his team won by alot for a little while.
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Old 09-28-2012, 12:14 AM   #917 (permalink)
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he doesn't need more appearances. cause his team won by alot for a little while.
Oh, and I suppose that'll have massive influence on voters? That the Braves scored too much to let Kimbrel get enough save opportunities?

Valverde finished fifth in the AL CYA voting last year. He led the league with 49 saves, but he was also far and away the leader in appearances (75) and innings pitched (72.1) out of all closers. Mariano only finished with five less saves and had a far superior ERA and WHIP, but he made 11 less appearances and logged 11 less innings. He finished 8th.

As of right now, Motte, Papelbon, Chapman, Axford and Clippard all have logged more innings than Kimbrel. Craig is gonna be lucky to finish at 65 IP, and there's 15 starters who've already amassed over TRIPLE that. I can't imagine a lot of voters are gonna let that one go too easily.
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Old 09-28-2012, 06:50 AM   #918 (permalink)
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Oh, and I suppose that'll have massive influence on voters? That the Braves scored too much to let Kimbrel get enough save opportunities?

Valverde finished fifth in the AL CYA voting last year. He led the league with 49 saves, but he was also far and away the leader in appearances (75) and innings pitched (72.1) out of all closers. Mariano only finished with five less saves and had a far superior ERA and WHIP, but he made 11 less appearances and logged 11 less innings. He finished 8th.

As of right now, Motte, Papelbon, Chapman, Axford and Clippard all have logged more innings than Kimbrel. Craig is gonna be lucky to finish at 65 IP, and there's 15 starters who've already amassed over TRIPLE that. I can't imagine a lot of voters are gonna let that one go too easily.
far and away the leader in appearances and IP? except craig had more (79) and more (77.0)

but you're right. IP > dominance.

stop eating rocks.
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Old 09-28-2012, 07:35 AM   #919 (permalink)
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this has to be one of the most raging debates this forum has ever seen. it is so tough to predict, especially when there is no clear stand-out. we have quite a bit of time before it gets decided. i assume this debate will continue to rage on even after a victor is declared. i have no horse in this race, but i wish all the candidates the best.
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Old 09-28-2012, 08:35 AM   #920 (permalink)
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This award is Dickey's to lose, plain and simple. The only way that anyone else can win -- mark my words, only -- is if he absolutely implodes in his final start, to the tune of 2 IP, 8 ER or something like that. A 20-game winner for one of the worst teams in baseball, top 3 in all the other major categories. It's his award.

I'm a Braves fan for life. I would love to see Kimbrel win this award. And in other years, it might have happened. But R.A. Dickey is one of the best feel-good stories of 2012, and he will be your winner barring a complete meltdown next week.
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Old 09-28-2012, 09:15 AM   #921 (permalink)
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this has to be one of the most raging debates this forum has ever seen. it is so tough to predict, especially when there is no clear stand-out. we have quite a bit of time before it gets decided. i assume this debate will continue to rage on even after a victor is declared. i have no horse in this race, but i wish all the candidates the best.
I'm very glad I made this thread, even thought someone else definitely would've if I didn't
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Old 09-28-2012, 09:57 AM   #922 (permalink)
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far and away the leader in appearances and IP? except craig had more (79) and more (77.0)
You missed the point I made by literally a mile and a half. Did Kimbrel compete for the AL Cy Young last year?

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but you're right. IP > dominance.
Holy f***, where have you been the last 30 pages? I have literally focused entire arguments on the premise that voters like guys who pitch more innings than their competition.

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stop eating rocks.
Stop drinkin' the Kool-Aid dude! Maybe you should just create an award for The Most Dominating Guy With Any Body of Work and then Craig and Huston Street can duke it out.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:12 AM   #923 (permalink)
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You guys wanna see a dominating season for a closer? Look at what Dennis Eckersley did in 1990: Dennis Eckersley Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Those are some crazy good stats. Now look at where Eck finished in the voting...5th? 5th, really? And the SECOND closer? Incidentally, that was the year Thigpen set the single-season saves record with 57. His ERA is very nice but no where near Eck's that year and no where near Kimbrel's this year. He simply pitched more games, logged more innings and notched more saves, but it was enough for him to get the nod over Eck in the voting. Neither guy broke the top 3.

Gagne was perfect in 55 save opportunities, put up filthy numbers, notched 10 more saves than the next-closest guy and still couldn't even win unanimously. Heck, Smoltz had a better ERA and couldn't even get one damn vote.
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Old 09-28-2012, 11:03 AM   #924 (permalink)
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This award is Dickey's to lose, plain and simple. The only way that anyone else can win -- mark my words, only -- is if he absolutely implodes in his final start, to the tune of 2 IP, 8 ER or something like that. A 20-game winner for one of the worst teams in baseball, top 3 in all the other major categories. It's his award.

I'm a Braves fan for life. I would love to see Kimbrel win this award. And in other years, it might have happened. But R.A. Dickey is one of the best feel-good stories of 2012, and he will be your winner barring a complete meltdown next week.


Not sure if the fact that he is on a team that is not heading to the playoffs is going to work in his favor or against him to be honest.
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Old 09-28-2012, 11:40 AM   #925 (permalink)
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Not sure if the fact that he is on a team that is not heading to the playoffs is going to work in his favor or against him to be honest.
Yeah, it could certainly go either way. Gio and Cueto are strong anchors for possibly the best teams in baseball, but Dickey has won almost 30% of his team's games which is ridiculous. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I still say it's Dickey's to lose, but this could end up being very close.
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