Topps Sterling - Which boxes to rip and which to sell sealed?

[jacobbigshow]

How did you get all of the data? I mean how do you know how many autos there are of Mantle, etc.

[TheCardBlog]

data is from the topps sell sheet. They list all the cards in the set and i just multiplied with the print runs and accounted for the 1/1 parallels. maybe not 100% accurate but it must be close. so maybe 99% accurate

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by TheCardBlogDOTcom

data is from the topps sell sheet. They list all the cards in the set and i just multiplied with the print runs and accounted for the 1/1 parallels. maybe not 100% accurate but it must be close. so maybe 99% accurate

Ok cool, some of those stats are something that should be hidden from buyers. If you have a .5% chance of pulling a Mantle auto that means one in every 200 boxes you will get an auto. The Mantle boxes sell for a mean of $400. Most boxes you pull on average a $200 card. That would mean the Mantle auto would have to sell for $40,000 for it to be worth buying Mantle boxes.

[TheCardBlog]

hmmm... well the mantle boxes are screwy because they run 1 per case so there are so many of them (like around 1900) and only 10 cut autos.

as for hiding the information from buyers, 0.5% is still one in 200 boxes. i think everyone who breaks lots of boxes has beaten those odds before so it doesnt seem absurd to take a shot at a cut auto. your odds at a mantle cut out of legendary cuts is most definitely worse than that. You are better off spending $400 on a mantle box than boxes of legendary cuts.

[jacobbigshow]

I just got my sealed case, I am about to "crack" it open and see what 10 players I got, will report soon. Come on Ichiro, Dice-K and Wang.

[hockeyjunkie99]

Good luck Jacob!

[iluvfish2]

Good luck! I'd love to buy a box...but I've spent way to much lately...and I need to start acting my wage.

[CaptainBOHICA]

Originally Posted by iluvfish2

Good luck! I'd love to buy a box...but I've spent way to much lately...and I need to start acting my wage.

ha! good luck with that. i've been trying to do that for the past year, but no luck! but hey, if your wife gives you grief, just tell her "its better than spending money on crack!"

[iluvfish2]

Originally Posted by CaptainBOHICA

ha! good luck with that. i've been trying to do that for the past year, but no luck! but hey, if your wife gives you grief, just tell her "its better than spending money on crack!"

And I'm prompty reminded that my addiction won't keep my fat @$$ warm that long sitting outside in the dog house! And given its single digits outside right now, I like my warm comfy bed!

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by hockeyjunkie99

Good luck Jacob!

Thanks for the luck. I pulled a hot case. Will post a thread in a few minutes.

[iluvfish2]

Now your killing me!

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by iluvfish2

Now your killing me!

07 Topps Sterling Hot Case break

[iluvfish2]

I presume your going to flip the boxes, or open them?

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by iluvfish2

I presume your going to flip the boxes, or open them?

Flip. I think im going to order another case as well.

[we6374]

Originally Posted by jacobbigshow

Flip. I think im going to order another case as well.

Can you guys really do that well on that stuff? Is it to late to try at 2250 a case?

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by we6374

Can you guys really do that well on that stuff? Is it to late to try at 2250 a case?

It depends on who you pull. To break even you would need a Mantle, 1 asain player (Ichiro, Dice-K, or Wang), and then somebody like Joe D or Ted Willaims. Cause the other boxes like Gibson or Morneau (which you should pull atleast 1 per case) barely sell for $100.

I mean I got so lucky, I pulled 2 Mantles and 3 Asains. Mantle is $400 a peice, the Asains are $300 a peice. Arod is also not that bad at $200+.

Breaking the case is like breaking a box. The good part is if you get unlucky and don't pull a Mantle or something else good, you prob can still get 2K.

[jacobbigshow]

Originally Posted by TheCardBlogDOTcom

Here's some numbers I put together on Topps Sterling. I hope its helpful. If you want more specific odds on anything just ask and i'll see what i can do.

2007 Topps Sterling Analysis

Hey man from your site I came up with some more analysis:
I put down the average sale price of a sealed box with no mystery pack and how many boxes sold.

2 of the following $576

Mickey Mantle - 10% $421 27 boxes
Barry Bonds - 10% $155 12

1 of the following $150

Justin Morneau - 4.72% $100 4
David Wright - 4.71% $200 7

6 of the following $1030

Bob Gibson - 3.21% $115 4
Alex Rodriguez - 3.19% $350 2
Albert Pujols - 3.18% $225 1
David Ortiz - 3.18% ????????
Ichiro - 3.17% $275 11
Ryan Howard - 3.17% $150 7
Chien-Ming Wang - 3.15% $250 3
Johan Santana - 3.15% $135 1
Nolan Ryan - 3.15% $285 3
Tom Seaver - 3.15% $110 6
Manny Ramirez - 3.12% $120 2
Carl Yastrzemski - 3.10% $130 6
Mike Schmidt - 3.10% $200 3
Reggie Jackson - 3.10% $125 2
Ryne Sandberg - 3.10% $210 3
Stan Musial - 3.10 % $150 1
Tony Gwynn - 3.10% $120 4
Yogi Berra - 3.10% $115 3
Roger Clemens - 3.09% $140 2

1 of the following $330

Ted Williams - 1.85% $265 6
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 1.84% $350 2
Hideki Matsui - 1.84% $180 2
Joe DiMaggio - 1.84% $500 1
Roberto Clemente - 1.84% $450 2
Roger Maris - 1.84% $250 6

[TheCardBlog]

hey thats pretty interesting. looks like just reselling the boxes is the best way to go. opening them would probably widen your losses.

[jacobbigshow]

I got the last case from blowout Looking at all the $2,300 + shipping on ebay, the $2,250 on blowout was a lot cheaper. Like somebody said these are drying up, and I have seen single boxes go from $170 to now selling to $200. Hopefully this will mean an increase in mystery packs and player boxes. Already sold my 10 mystery packs for $550, none of the other boxes yet but I have had several serious offers but I am holding out.

[dad&son_collecting]

Originally Posted by thekramers5

I just opened 2 cases of Sterling and am now trying to figure out which boxes to rip. I've posted many already, but am debating on the others...
TK

TK,

How are you doing on your sales? I tried to get the A-Rod last night, but I was beat at the last minute. I did buy your Mattingly Sport Kings. Thanks

[thekramers5]

So far, I'll be coming out ahead on all 4 cases where I've sold "most" of the contents. I'm keeping track, case-by-case, including a handful of the boxes I've opened and am selling/sold.

For example, one case is already $150 over break-even and I still have the sealed Ted Williams box and an 8-relic / auto Wang I'm selling.

Of 7 total busted, my prediction is (even with some having none actually sold yet - just based on market prices):

3 will make great money - $600 or above
2 will make good money - $200 to $500
1 will break even
1 may lose $100

This can always change - because since I'm doing very well so far - I'll try my hands at breaking a few more boxes than I anticipated!

So far, I've busted 5 or 6 boxes, with the highlights the Wang 8/Auto, Nolan Ryan jumbo swatch (sold for $200 - but box would have sold $240 to $275), a Bonds 1/1 6 multi-colored patch card, A-Rod 3/Auto.

A sealed Clemente just sold for $510, and I have a sealed DiMaggio that should bring some good money.

And the fun part - 4 more cases arriving tomorrow!

Anyway, when the dust settles, I'll share overall results and final tallies.

TK

[jacobbigshow]

WOW TK those are some very good breaks. I opened up my 2 Arod boxes, got 2 4 peice autos that will sell for $250 each. I could of sold it as a sealed box for $325 so I will take a little lose. I sold the mystery packs for $550. I had an offer for the Mantle $390 decline, Santana $120 is going to be sold, Ichiro $225 declined, Dice-K $225 declined. So I still plan to make up plus $600-1,000 on my first case.

I am getting 1 case today, and one more tomorow. I bought my first case off ebay for $2,050, second for $2200+, and 3rd from here for $2250 so that will eat into my profits. How much have you been getting your cases and from where? And once again nice pulls and nice $510 for the Clemente!

[thekramers5]

Originally Posted by jacobbigshow

WOW TK those are some very good breaks. I opened up my 2 Arod boxes, got 2 4 peice autos that will sell for $250 each. I could of sold it as a sealed box for $325 so I will take a little lose. I sold the mystery packs for $550. I had an offer for the Mantle $390 decline, Santana $120 is going to be sold, Ichiro $225 declined, Dice-K $225 declined. So I still plan to make up plus $600-1,000 on my first case.

I am getting 1 case today, and one more tomorow. I bought my first case off ebay for $2,050, second for $2200+, and 3rd from here for $2250 so that will eat into my profits. How much have you been getting your cases and from where? And once again nice pulls and nice $510 for the Clemente!

All 11 cases from Blowout. I'll be opening up a few more boxes this week...just because I'm having the itch and want to do it before Bowman Sterling.

This is one of the most enjoyable products I've ever opened (it does help that I've done well) - I've had fun opening up the boxes to see the player.

I had an A-Rod sell the other night for $360...and all 3 of my Ichiros sold at $265 or $275. You're right though, the A-Rods are one of the best to open because it's "probably" an auto...and it's A-Rod!!

[dad&son_collecting]

Originally Posted by thekramers5

I had an A-Rod sell the other night for $360

Please don't remind me. My seven year old is still ticked I lost by $10 flipping bucks!

[Crash1207]

TK, I watched your 8 relic Morneau end tonight and I really wish I could have put an offer in for ya. But I just purchased an 8 relic auto of Santana for my PC and couldn't handle another $100+ payment. I'll keep an eye out if you relist it.