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Old 10-02-2012, 05:51 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Is it really 50% though? In real life for a player to get a streak they have to face certain amount of teams in order. In this contest it seems like you can pick a new player each day, so you can sort of choose which pitchers you wanna face (ones with high ERAs, low SO's, etc), and which hitters you want to play (ones on hot streaks, ones that routinely make a fool of the pitcher, etc).

I don't know if that makes it come out better than 50% though, but seems like the odds are better than an actual player doing it.
Nah, Metsfan1121 above is right. If you take an average .300 hitter and give him, say, 3.5 ABs per game, then in a given game he's got about a 71% chance of getting at least one hit. That would change the odds of getting 57 in a row to about 1:300,000,000. That is, if you are allowed to select your hitter(s).
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Old 10-04-2012, 02:03 PM   #27 (permalink)
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i was just thinking, imagine if the nationals win the world series ? the sp world series autos that topps usualy has in series one . the harper would command sick money
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Old 11-16-2012, 10:58 AM   #28 (permalink)
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just realised topps is coming out at the end of january ? damn it's coming fast
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Old 11-16-2012, 12:47 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Nah, Metsfan1121 above is right. If you take an average .300 hitter and give him, say, 3.5 ABs per game, then in a given game he's got about a 71% chance of getting at least one hit. That would change the odds of getting 57 in a row to about 1:300,000,000. That is, if you are allowed to select your hitter(s).
Its two times harder to win this damn promotion than the MegaMillions loterry. I suppose it doesn't really matter when you are tallking about improbable odds, but I just can't see myself getting into something where I know I am bound to lose 300,000,000 times more often than I win.
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Old 11-16-2012, 12:50 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Its two times harder to win this damn promotion than the MegaMillions loterry. I suppose it doesn't really matter when you are tallking about improbable odds, but I just can't see getting into something I know I am bound to lose 300,000,000 times more often than I win.
The lottery is just dumb luck though. Odd probably get tilted in favor of this when you take into account that you can do match ups to pitchers or just keep in a guy who is just red hot.
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Old 11-16-2012, 01:49 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Beat the streak has been at this for years with a MUCH bigger prize amount. Nobody could even get near 50. So this year they doubled down and decided to let everyone choose TWO batters a day...yet nobody cracked 40 again this year.

Nobody will win this. Topps simply takes out a cheap insurance policy in case the close to impossible happens..but really this is a MUCH cheaper promotion for them than past ones..and it is highly dissapointing. The fact that you have to have codes to do something that will most definitely land you with absolutely nothing..plus you can play for free with Beat the Streak and win 5x the amount.

Pass. Again,
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Old 11-16-2012, 02:13 PM   #32 (permalink)
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obviously the key will be the value of the other prizes besides the million ("thousands of autographs and coin cards") and how hard those will be to win. i can still see the redemption codes being just as valuable as previous years.
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Old 11-16-2012, 02:16 PM   #33 (permalink)
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The lottery is just dumb luck though. Odd probably get tilted in favor of this when you take into account that you can do match ups to pitchers or just keep in a guy who is just red hot.
If the lottery is just "dumb luck," this giveaway is in fact "dumber luck" because it gives people the illusion that there is some "skill" involved to beating this streak. You don't have any more control over this game than you do over the lottery. You are choosing players who you in reality you have no control over, they in essence can be reduced to just a probability--a percentage chance of allowing you to move on to the next day. Picking a player (even if you had the choice of any player in the league, which you don't) to get a hit 56 times in a row is more improbable than blindly picking 5 numbers and a mega to win you a prize 20-50 times as large.
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Old 11-16-2012, 02:25 PM   #34 (permalink)
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If the lottery is just "dumb luck," this giveaway is in fact "dumber luck" because it gives people the illusion that there is some "skill" involved to beating this streak. You don't have any control over this game other than the illusion that you are choosing players, who you in reality you have no control over. Picking a player (even if you had the choice of any player in the league, which you don't) to get a hit 56 times in a row is more improbable than blindly picking 5 numbers and a mega to win you a prize 20-50 times as large.
Thats like saying that you dont have any control in games like blackjack or poker. You make informed decisions base on the available information that you have to help your odds. Does that mean you tip the odds in favor of you over the house? No, but it does increase them.

All I was saying is that it is possible that the odds might be better than winning the lottery given that you can interact with some info available to you. I did not say that it was likely anyone will win. If these contests were easy then nobody would do them because they would be paying out on it.
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Old 11-16-2012, 02:52 PM   #35 (permalink)
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The success of this will hinge on the smaller prizes you get along the way, like all of these promotions have since they started. I'm pretty sure lots of people participated in and enjoyed the other promotions without hitting the 1952 Topps Mantle in the MCG, getting the Mantle ring in the DGA, and without collecting all 30 coins of the same type in the GGA. Sure the odds are overwhelming that nobody will sniff that $1 million grand prize, but if they set up the promotion like they have in the past where you are awarded periodic smaller prizes to keep you going along the way, the promotion will be successful. And it will definitely be fun trying to keep a "hitting streak" alive along the way. Is it an original idea? No. But its essentially a free promotion for those that will open topps anyway, and adds at least some value to the product, where before 2010 the codes would just be another base card common. You don't HAVE to buy codes to play... nobody is forcing you... but I think those who do will have fun with this. If nothing else, more fun than getting an "imaginary coin" 95% of the time and that's it.
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Old 12-28-2012, 10:50 PM   #36 (permalink)
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no gold paralels this time ? that sucks . im not into them parales pictured in the sell sheet , pink ? emerald and camo . i just noticed these are numbered realy low. what happened to the gold ??????
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Old 12-28-2012, 10:52 PM   #37 (permalink)
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nevermind , just noticed there are golds .
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Old 12-28-2012, 11:13 PM   #38 (permalink)
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I won't be a big fan of the pink parallels, those look ugly as sin!
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Old 12-30-2012, 03:29 AM   #39 (permalink)
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even the camo and emerald looks awful
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Old 12-30-2012, 03:50 AM   #40 (permalink)
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even the camo and emerald looks awful
All Mock ups guys, the emerald and camo will be foil cards similar to the gold ones this year.

Hard to display foil cards accurately without an actual picture of them.
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Old 12-30-2012, 05:23 AM   #41 (permalink)
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Can't I just play for free, choose whoever I want and win 5.6 Mill instead? Lol
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:19 AM   #42 (permalink)
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only a few weeks away.
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:08 PM   #43 (permalink)
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anyone see a pic of the box yet ?
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:10 PM   #44 (permalink)
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anyone see a pic of the box yet ?
Yes, Dan Uggla will be on the box cover and packs this year
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:24 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Yes, Dan Uggla will be on the box cover and packs this year
Weird, I heard it will be Yunel Escobar.....
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:26 PM   #46 (permalink)
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very funny guys ......
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:27 PM   #47 (permalink)
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very funny guys ......
In all seriousness, it will probably be someone along the lines of a veteran player, usually Series 1/2 is a veteran, and update is rookies. I'll go ahead and guess Trout or Miguel Cabrera.
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:28 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Weird, I heard it will be Yunel Escobar.....
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:30 PM   #49 (permalink)
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In all seriousness, it will probably be someone along the lines of a veteran player, usually Series 1/2 is a veteran, and update is rookies. I'll go ahead and guess Trout or Miguel Cabrera.
your probably right , just was wondering if the image had been seen yet .
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:32 PM   #50 (permalink)
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your probably right , just was wondering if the image had been seen yet .
I would bet we'll see it sometime within 2 weeks of release. Series 1 is probably their most popular product overall, so they start releasing info about it earlier than usual, usually one thing every day for the 2 weeks before.
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