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View Poll Results: Who wins the AL MVP?
Mike Trout 107 39.48%
Miguel Cabrera 160 59.04%
Other 4 1.48%
Voters: 271. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-02-2012, 12:41 PM   #76 (permalink)
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Oh, and the playoffs argument is just stupid, sorry.
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Old 10-02-2012, 12:49 PM   #77 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by btimm View Post
Good night, I really wish people would stop thinking WAR means everything. I grow to despise that douchebag Bill James. I shouldn't though, as it is not his fault so many people don't understand that WAR is a subjective formula. It is impossible to create a completely objective stat, stop treating it like it is!! Seriously, I am about to be on WAR tilt.
You're right, it is impossible to create a 100% completely objective "magic value number" that should settle the MVP debate once and for all. What IS possible is to take loads and loads of objective data from over a hundred years of gameplay and model a formula that at least tries to approximate that "magic value number".

Is WAR perfect? No. Does it do a very good job? I don't think you can find many people that think it doesn't. The argument that I and others are posing with Trout's WAR is that the gap is just SO wide that it CANNOT be ignored, not for a formula that -- despite being imperfect -- has done a very fine job of assessing value for all the years it has been calculated for. We're not talking about a one-tenth of a point toss-up here a la Braun vs. Kemp last year, we're talking 3 full points. That is a MONUMENTAL margin if you look at recent years' results.
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Old 10-02-2012, 01:05 PM   #78 (permalink)
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Who wins it? Or who should win it? Cabrera will win, but Trout SHOULD win
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Old 10-02-2012, 01:07 PM   #79 (permalink)
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Who wins it? Or who should win it? Cabrera will win, but Trout SHOULD win
Ding ding ding. Distinct difference between "will" and "should", and I think you are exactly right.
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Old 10-02-2012, 01:28 PM   #80 (permalink)
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Who wins it? Or who should win it? Cabrera will win, but Trout SHOULD win
^^^^^ This
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Old 10-02-2012, 01:30 PM   #81 (permalink)
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Who wins it? Or who should win it? Cabrera will win, but Trout SHOULD win
done end the thread lol
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Old 10-02-2012, 02:25 PM   #82 (permalink)
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Here's an article about Trout's defense: MLB defensive player of the year - ESPN

In all honesty, I can't say I agree with it 100%. It's not easy to make these comparisons position-to-position, but it's hard to argue anyone played better defense this year than Ryan and Barney.

Regardless, it does make some pretty good points about a guy who is clearly more than just an above-average defender. I don't know how people can just say, "oh, well he made a couple nice catches this year, what of it?". Defense can be game-changing too. Cabrera is at best, AT BEST, an average third baseman. I'm not saying voters will necessarily hold that against him, but they'll almost certainly credit Trout for his excellent defense.
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Old 10-02-2012, 02:27 PM   #83 (permalink)
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Here's an article about Trout's defense: MLB defensive player of the year - ESPN

In all honesty, I can't say I agree with it 100%. It's not easy to make these comparisons position-to-position, but it's hard to argue anyone played better defense this year than Ryan and Barney.

Regardless, it does make some pretty good points about a guy who is clearly more than just an above-average defender. I don't know how people can just say, "oh, well he made a couple nice catches this year, what of it?". Defense can be game-changing too. Cabrera is at best, AT BEST, an average third baseman. I'm not saying voters will necessarily hold that against him, but they'll almost certainly credit Trout for his excellent defense.
Not to mention the overall importance of a defense at the CF position. Not sure of the ranking of defensive 'value' by position, but guessing 3rd is one of the least valuable (which I guess may help cabrera a little as he is deficient there...but it helps Trout more as he is superb at a premium position).
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Old 10-02-2012, 02:53 PM   #84 (permalink)
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Playoffs and Triple Crown vs No Playoffs and no Triple Crown. Hmmmm.........
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Old 10-02-2012, 02:57 PM   #85 (permalink)
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Playoffs and Triple Crown vs No Playoffs and no Triple Crown. Hmmmm.........
Playoffs? We're talkin' 'bout...playoffs?

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Old 10-02-2012, 02:58 PM   #86 (permalink)
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Playoffs and Triple Crown vs No Playoffs and no Triple Crown. Hmmmm.........
Detroit homer hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Old 10-02-2012, 03:05 PM   #87 (permalink)
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i hope everyone is watching OTL on espn2 right now
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Old 10-02-2012, 03:06 PM   #88 (permalink)
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i hope everyone is watching OTL on espn2 right now
Why, what's up??
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Old 10-02-2012, 03:07 PM   #89 (permalink)
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i hope everyone is watching OTL on espn2 right now
I am Trout, Trout, Trout, and Trout. I still think Miguel should win
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Old 10-02-2012, 03:08 PM   #90 (permalink)
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everyone said they felt that trout should win but the voters will not vote for him
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:22 PM   #91 (permalink)
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Here's the biggest problem with the WAR stat.......

It's clearly 100% WRONG!!!!!!!

I don't care what goes into it as all the sites seem to have their own calculation, but it clearly doesn't take everything into affect as I needs to because it's supposed to be the stat that shows how many more wins a team has because of that player compared to having a replacement bench or minor league player in that spot instead.

There is absolutely no chance in hell that if you were to take Cabrera off of the Tigers that they only win 7 less games, that number would quite honestly be 20 or more, and frankly the same goes for Trout.

But that's my biggest problem with the stat, it doesn't accurately give you what the stat is supposed to represent, which is why it's a bunk stat

It doesn't take into account when things are done during the game, an RBI single in the first inning when you're up 10 runs is worth exactly the same to the WAR stat as an RBI single in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth. It's also a measurement compared to the average players at that position and 3rd base has a lot more stars, at least in terms of hitting, than CF which itself will bring down Cabrera's WAR number.

I don't know where to find the stats, but they've been talking about it for weeks that Cabrera leads, and by ridiculous margins, so many late game statistics it's not even funny. His hits, RBIs, HRs, in the 7th inning or later is what should be winning him this award and are the direct reason his "7 additional wins because of him instead of a replacement player" is such a ridiculously wrong number.

People keep saying that a win in September is worth the same as a win in April when all is said and done at the end of the year, which to a point it is, but an RBI hit in the first inning isn't "worth" the same as an RBI hit in a tied ninth inning.
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:27 PM   #92 (permalink)
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Oh, and the playoffs argument is just stupid, sorry.
So the fact that Trout basically sucked while his team was fighting to get into the playoffs in September and Cabrera stepped it up a notch helping his team get there is stupid? I thought the whole point of the season for players is to get the playoffs and World Series. The most valuable players step it up when the playoffs are on the line, they don't tank. Had Trout had great numbers during the crunch time of the season and the Angels still did not make the playoffs, then I think he still might have deserved it, but with lousy numbers and his team missing the playoffs, I think it matters to voters.
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:30 PM   #93 (permalink)
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So the fact that Trout basically sucked while his team was fighting to get into the playoffs in September and Cabrera stepped it up a notch helping his team get there is stupid? I thought the whole point of the season for players is to get the playoffs and World Series. The most valuable players step it up when the playoffs are on the line, they don't tank. Had Trout had great numbers during the crunch time of the season and the Angels still did not make the playoffs, then I think he still might have deserved it, but with lousy numbers and his team missing the playoffs, I think it matters to voters.
I agree with that, but the leagues best player could be on the leagues worst team, and if they don't have any help it would be extremely hard to make it to the playoffs. This isn't the case for Trout though. The Angels have really talented players and still aren't going to make the playoffs.
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:36 PM   #94 (permalink)
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As for WAR, I really don't get it. Can someone please explain 2009 to me? For position players, Ben Zobrist was #1 and Chone Figgins was #3. I looked at their numbers. Were those guys MVP candidates because they had a good WAR? I am sure it is useful, but I don't see how guys with the numbers they had would be considered MVP contenders so there must be a catch to it.
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:39 PM   #95 (permalink)
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So the fact that Trout basically sucked while his team was fighting to get into the playoffs in September and Cabrera stepped it up a notch helping his team get there is stupid? I thought the whole point of the season for players is to get the playoffs and World Series. The most valuable players step it up when the playoffs are on the line, they don't tank. Had Trout had great numbers during the crunch time of the season and the Angels still did not make the playoffs, then I think he still might have deserved it, but with lousy numbers and his team missing the playoffs, I think it matters to voters.
Of course the playoff argument doesn't matter!! And I say that being a Tigers fan, lol. Be objective, do you really think that Anaheim misses the playoffs if they were in the Central with the Tigers schedule? I sure don't. Making the playoffs is a different challenge for teams in different divisions. It is not an apples to apples comparison and therefore should have no weight whatsoever in the MVP discussion. Again, I say this as a Tigers fan, lol.
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:39 PM   #96 (permalink)
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Here's the biggest problem with the WAR stat.......

It's clearly 100% WRONG!!!!!!!
100% wrong? ONE HUNDRED PERCENT WRONG?

If it's THAT wrong, why do I see GOOD players with HIGHER values and BAD players with LOWER values? Surely if it was 100% WRONG, we'd see a Jeff Francoeur or a Casey Kotchman or a Jemile Weeks in the mix, right?

No one said WAR is perfect. There is of course no way to exactly determine how many wins would be "lost" if a player did not play for a given team. But if you don't think it does at least a pretty good job at measuring player value, I don't really know what to tell you.

I'll be the first to admit I go a little overboard with the WAR arguments sometimes. The patterns I've noticed with MVP vote-getters and high WAR values seem to indicate that it does at least a fairly good job, and, well, I just happen to like it as a metric. If sabermetrics don't resonate with you, you can make a fine argument for Trout using traditional stats. This is from a recent article from Jeff Passan, because he put this far more eloquently than I ever could:

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You know what matters? Mike Trout is hitting .321/.395/.557 with 30 home runs, 48 stolen bases in 52 attempts and plays center field better than anyone in the major leagues. He beats you with his bat, with his legs and with his glove. There is no exact way to measure whether that beats Cabrera's advantage with the bat. But Trout is close enough to Cabrera .325/.390/.601 with 43 home runs that anybody who values the havoc Trout wreaks on the basepaths (and not just stealing bases but taking extra ones) and the enormous advantage on defense (Gold Glove-caliber center fielder to below-average third baseman) surely would believe it not only makes up for it but also exceeds it.
10 Degrees: Miguel Cabrera's Triple Crown push is overshadowing true AL MVP Mike Trout - Yahoo! Sports
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:45 PM   #97 (permalink)
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As for WAR, I really don't get it. Can someone please explain 2009 to me? For position players, Ben Zobrist was #1 and Chone Figgins was #3. I looked at their numbers. Were those guys MVP candidates because they had a good WAR? I am sure it is useful, but I don't see how guys with the numbers they had would be considered MVP contenders so there must be a catch to it.
Very good point. Zobrist and Figgins had OBPs of .405 and .395 respectively that year. They also played very good defense.

FWIW, both those guys finished in the top 10 in MVP voting that year, so it's not like it was a hugely anomalous occurrence.
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:48 PM   #98 (permalink)
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I have this strange thought that JohnAndrew really really REALLY wants Mike Trout to win the MVP. I haven't seen another person on this forum fight so hard to prove he should win. I'm not saying anything is wrong with that, but my goodness.....
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:56 PM   #99 (permalink)
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They are so close that I will say if both teams made the playoffs, Trout. If neither team made the playoffs, Trout. But, since it seemas as though the Tigers are going to be in and the Angels out, I would have to say slight, and I mean extremely slight, edge goes to Cabrera. Without him, the team wouldn't have made the playoffs, let alone won their division. I know that MVP doesn't have to come from a playoff team, hence Arod with the Rangers. With Melkys's number though and the fact that he did help his team I say its his at this point.
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Old 10-02-2012, 04:57 PM   #100 (permalink)
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Of course the playoff argument doesn't matter!! And I say that being a Tigers fan, lol. Be objective, do you really think that Anaheim misses the playoffs if they were in the Central with the Tigers schedule? I sure don't. Making the playoffs is a different challenge for teams in different divisions. It is not an apples to apples comparison and therefore should have no weight whatsoever in the MVP discussion. Again, I say this as a Tigers fan, lol.
You are missing my point. Making or missing the playoffs was not the main factor. It is the performance of each player in question during a playoff run. If a guy on the worst team in baseball hit 100 HRs, batted .420 and has 200 RBI's, then yes, the playoffs would not matter. But if two players are very close in the MVP race and one has his worst month and the other has a great month in September when both their teams are fighting for the playoffs, then, it matters. Am I crazy or does anyone else feel this way?
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