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Old 12-10-2012, 09:37 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default How do you know what rookie card(s) will end up being most valuable down the road?

Still relatively new to collecting.. How do you know which rookie cards will ultimately be the most valuable down the road?

What I mean by this, my cousin has a Topps 03 LeBron rookie (the 1 with him holding the jersey on draft day) and I have the 03 Topps Chrome. His is worth maybe $10, mine $50 or $60.. With that being said how do you know which will be the best ones to get when they are rookies?

I'm looking at buying a Josh Hamilton rookie, looks like the '99 Chrome is a solid bet. The normal Topps with gold boarder goes for about $10, the chrome for $30 or so. I don't understand how you determine what cards will hold value over time and which ones are $3-10 cards even over time. Does that make sense? Any help please?
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:40 PM   #2 (permalink)
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IMHO NONE!!! Rc cards have done nothing. Look at Henderson, Ripken, jeter, Sandburg. And so on..... You can get almost all of those (except traded Ripken and ap jeter) for under 20.

Also chrome is always the way to go.
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:42 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Unless you get lucky with another Trout where everything he has is going for insane $$$$ then RCs are really not that valuable, however Chromee is the most popular.
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:59 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I personally wish all sports followed the hockey model where a guy can't have a card made until he actually PLAYS in a regular season NHL game.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:01 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Well at some point those Ripken or Griffey rookies were pretty valuable.. The window of opportunity to sell them for a higher price has already come and gone. My uncle sold about 15 Ripken rookies when he broke the consecutive games streak for like $50 each.

So chrome always is the most popular, which I am seeing even in my description of the Hamilton and LeBron cards.. Why is that, just because they usually look the best I guess?
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:09 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Just like with most things it is supply and demand. The Chromes are more limited than the regulars so their value is higher. Then the colored chromes are even more limited so they are worth more. Also, the price of the product does make a difference. If you buy the cheap base products like regular topps, upper deck, etc they arent going to worth as much as higher end products such as exquisite, chrome, etc.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:14 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankees_Pride View Post
IMHO NONE!!! Rc cards have done nothing. Look at Henderson, Ripken, jeter, Sandburg. And so on..... You can get almost all of those (except traded Ripken and ap jeter) for under 20.

Also chrome is always the way to go.
That's my question, why is the Ripken Traded and Jeter AP the exceptions? Why are all others are worth x amount and those specific ones are worth significantly more? And how do you know in the beginning that particular card will be "the one"? You just have to guess/use judgment?
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:14 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by GOWIFB View Post
Just like with most things it is supply and demand. The Chromes are more limited than the regulars so their value is higher. Then the colored chromes are even more limited so they are worth more. Also, the price of the product does make a difference. If you buy the cheap base products like regular topps, upper deck, etc they arent going to worth as much as higher end products such as exquisite, chrome, etc.
Gotcha, that makes sense. Thanks
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:23 PM   #9 (permalink)
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being a rookie card collector, there really isn't much money in them. you usually have to put together bigger lots to get them to sell well, ive had success with that method.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:29 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HOFcollector View Post
being a rookie card collector, there really isn't much money in them. you usually have to put together bigger lots to get them to sell well, ive had success with that method.
I see. I will keep that in mind, thanks for sharing
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:38 PM   #11 (permalink)
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It's a rather simple formula for modern cards, we'll talk about baseball as other sports will be different. The best rookie cards will always come from a set with a pedigree of sorts. In baseball, Bowman Chrome is king. They're shiny, have on card autos and limited colored parallels. Since Topps is the only one producing licensed baseball cards, everything else they have released is secondary. Surprisingly, Five Star still falls second to Bowman Chrome(Also because each MLB "Rookie" likely had a Bowman Chrome card years before.)


As for rookie cards of Henderson,Ripken,Jeter.....search eBay for "graded" card sales of these cards in PSA 9,PSA 10 and BGS 9+......it's an entirely different world than the raw card market......

Last edited by Archangel1775; 12-11-2012 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:42 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Since Rickey Henderson's rookie was brought up as valueless, here are some current eBay sales:

PSA 9
$242
$379
$383
$300
$399

A PSA 10 will go for thousands. Matter in fact, a 1979 Topps Ozzie Smith rookie card sold for roughly $20,000 at auction this year.
Ryne Sandberg RC's are only going just North of $300 in PSA 10.

Last edited by Archangel1775; 12-10-2012 at 11:45 PM.
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:52 PM   #13 (permalink)
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That 79' Ozzie rookie is just about impossible to find in gem mint condition. One of the lowest populations for HOF RC's out there. Quality control was not very important to Topps at that time, hence the insane value of it.
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Old 12-11-2012, 08:10 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Higher quality sets bring higher quality sales.

Your basic Topps LeBron rookie comes from a set with an MSRP of under two bucks.

The MSRP for Chrome was probably twice that at the time.

The Jeter/ARod SP rookies sell for more than the others for the same reason.

I don't always equate quality to MSRP but for the most part it's fairly consistent.

There's a reason LeBron's Exquisite rookie pulls thousands every time it sells--packs were upwards of 500-600 bucks a pop.
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Old 12-11-2012, 10:21 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Everyone has thrown out some great ideas so far, and I agree with them as well.

I'm not a huge rc collector myself, so my experience is mainly from selling them. If you opened some old wax, or just purchased some singles that you think look like they would grade well- you could find value there.

For modern cards, a lot of BO users seem to LOVE bowman products. The pre-rookie card. The more valuable rookie cards are going to be a low number print, autographed, or with a nice big ole patch.
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Old 12-11-2012, 10:28 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by californiakron View Post
That 79' Ozzie rookie is just about impossible to find in gem mint condition. One of the lowest populations for HOF RC's out there. Quality control was not very important to Topps at that time, hence the insane value of it.
You could open 10 vending cases of 1979 Topps and not find a PSA 9, let alone a Gem Mint 10. If one card in a case was miscut, the whole case was miscut and geez the printing bubbles were awful.

The 1979 Ozzie PSA 10 isn't $30,000 because Ozzie Smith is a great investment, its $30,000 because there aren't more than a couple in existence.
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Old 12-11-2012, 10:41 AM   #17 (permalink)
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get the 1999 Topps Traded autograph hamilton


his first autograph
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Old 12-11-2012, 10:43 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KaraandMelliesDaddy View Post
You could open 10 vending cases of 1979 Topps and not find a PSA 9, let alone a Gem Mint 10. If one card in a case was miscut, the whole case was miscut and geez the printing bubbles were awful.
Really? have you had bad experiences with vending cases? I was actually toying with the idea myself, but was hesitant to pull the trigger because I don't know anyone else that's tried.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:06 AM   #19 (permalink)
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It's not that rookie cards aren't valuable, it's that you have to wait for them to vintage in order to see value. Most are just too impatient.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:20 AM   #20 (permalink)
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I'm not even sure what cards will hold value down the road because prices can drop really really fast. I just saw Arod's SP RC goes for about $30 and that was once close to a $100 card. Usually the RC that is the best to get is already expensive as it is, so if you get it, you have to hope it increases in value instead of dropping like a rock in the future.
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Old 12-11-2012, 11:29 AM   #21 (permalink)
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The way things are today, I wouldnt buy cards of any current rookie looking for a payday. Today's rookie card values go so high either when they get called up and have a few good games or if they have a great first season. After that, everyone has moved on to someone else but by that point, I just dont see much room for them to go up.

Obviously there are exceptions but I'd bet you will be able to buy 2011 Trout update cards for less in 5 years than you could a month ago no matter how well he does in the next five years.
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Old 12-11-2012, 03:32 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mainerunr View Post
The way things are today, I wouldnt buy cards of any current rookie looking for a payday. Today's rookie card values go so high either when they get called up and have a few good games or if they have a great first season. After that, everyone has moved on to someone else but by that point, I just dont see much room for them to go up.

Obviously there are exceptions but I'd bet you will be able to buy 2011 Trout update cards for less in 5 years than you could a month ago no matter how well he does in the next five years.
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Old 12-11-2012, 03:39 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by californiakron View Post
That 79' Ozzie rookie is just about impossible to find in gem mint condition. One of the lowest populations for HOF RC's out there. Quality control was not very important to Topps at that time, hence the insane value of it.
It also does not appear to have become any more important over the last 33 years
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:47 PM   #24 (permalink)
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I agree with the statement that the time to sell Trout was during this breakout season. The same applies to Harper and any other player. Most speculators and collectors already factor in a HOF career leaving little room for growth. Sure, I still want to add a Harper and Trout but I'll wait. I recall David Wright Chromes going North of $600 and Ryan Howard's BBest for $600. Sure, they still put of solid numbers every year but they are no longer in the hobby limelight.
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