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Old 12-28-2012, 12:43 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by BowmanFan View Post
Many people will say this but it is 100% wrong, you can make just as much money on pitchers as you do hitters.
It's not about the reward, it's about the risk. You could make money or you could lose almost all of it. Yes, that's true to some degree for the other positions, but IMO it seems more likely to happen due to injury for pitchers (therefore much more unpredictably and leaving you stuck with cards).
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Old 12-28-2012, 12:45 PM   #27 (permalink)
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I was a big baseball fan as a kid and pretty much only collected baseball cards of the 3 major sports, but I really don't do any baseball anymore. I hate the prospecting of kids in the minors.

Football is so much better because the actual STARS in the game are what people are looking for and the players you can make money on.
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Old 12-28-2012, 12:49 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by monkeymcgee View Post
I briefly dabbled in prospecting and here's what I learned:

1. No pitchers. Ever.
2. If the guy strikes out a lot in the lower levels, stay away
3. Buy on whispers, sell on hype. If you hold until MLB debut, you're going to lose money. Sell on hype. Sell on hype.
4. If the guy has a low BA but good power numbers, he's okay.
5. The organization matters when it comes to hype. Don't ignore that.

Not sure if any of these are helpful, but I have no skin in the game anymore so those are my secrets
1. Disagree with this, If you pick a pitcher and he takes off he can make you some nice cash. I.E Dylan Bundy, my personal example is Madison Bumgarner
2. Totally agree with, I was in on Jacob Anderson for Blue Jays but if the kid goes up to bat 4 times he strikes out 3 of them.
5. Agreed organization matters, if kid plays for Yanks or Redsox, or even Cubs they are going to generate serious hype.

Just my thoughts,
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Old 12-28-2012, 12:50 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Astronix View Post
I was a big baseball fan as a kid and pretty much only collected baseball cards of the 3 major sports, but I really don't do any baseball anymore. I hate the prospecting of kids in the minors.

Football is so much better because the actual STARS in the game are what people are looking for and the players you can make money on.
From a flipping standpoint, you can't beat baseball. Try to flip football and I can almost guarantee you that you will go broke because most of the good prospects are priced at peak when the first products come out. And there are way too many products with the rookie autos.
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Old 12-28-2012, 01:02 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Collecting prospects is a lot more like gambling.

Pull a Wil Myers auto. Do you sell now or hold onto it and hope he becomes the next best thing.

It really spices up the hobby.
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Old 12-28-2012, 01:54 PM   #31 (permalink)
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From my experiences you can be really good at scouting/prospecting but you also need a decent amount of capital to really make money on it, especially if you are buying stuff for your PC all the time. Heres a few things I've learned about the investing side of the hobby since getting back into cards a couple years ago...

1. Don't break cases/boxes yourself - there is too much risk and the money is better spent on sound investments where you know what your getting.

2. Target a player that yet to be hyped equal to their talent or one that has fallen off the hype wagon for reason unrelated to skills i.e. Wil Myers freak injury combined w/ learning a new position causes his cards to stall at reasonable prices for a long time. Trout's hype diminishes due to being rushed by Anaheim but ridiculous tools remain.

3. Don't hesitate to sell off on a player who may have a great ceiling but is already selling like he has reached it...I held on to Bauer too long thinking his base would crack 80$....I paid less than 30 so selling at 55-60 is a nice return, no need to risk losing $!

4. Pay attention to specific card prices....base are going for 15 but refractors over 30? Buy the base...similarly stay away from base when they are 10-15 but refractors can be had for 20 or less.

5. If everyone else is buying a player, it may be better to stay away for a while. If the price is rising you are buying at a higher risk... the cards will usually level off once people have stocked up, but even if they don't there is a number of players that no one has really noticed yet or are being severely underrated.

6. Pay attention to as many information sources as possible. The more data sources you have the more you know how a player is being rated by others. This way you see who is higher or lower on peoples lists in comparison to your own and can judge who has more room to grow in the future. Obviously this technique will only help if you are already good at scouting talent or you will do more harm then good buying up the wrong players...

7. Scouting tip: Take minor league stats with a grain of salt. Its easy for a players stats to be inflated in certain leagues or deflated in others. A lot of variables need to be considered such as age/level/league/experience/etc but at the end of the day, players are streaky and stats are only an indicator of future success, not a guarantee.

I look at baseball cards as a hobby 1st and as a business venture 2nd, and it has always been more enjoyable for me that way, albeit less profitable!
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Old 12-28-2012, 02:55 PM   #32 (permalink)
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He has done something. He's arguably the Cubs #1 hitting prospect (him or Baez). That's good enough to have his prices at a high level. Big market team and big talent = top dollar.
what has he done, he has 34 games under his belt in the US, he could be the best player in baseball in 5 years or totally tank? am i missing something? a prospect just means at his level he has all the tools scouts look for in becoming great down the road.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:07 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by StraWMyerS View Post
From my experiences you can be really good at scouting/prospecting but you also need a decent amount of capital to really make money on it, especially if you are buying stuff for your PC all the time. Heres a few things I've learned about the investing side of the hobby since getting back into cards a couple years ago...

1. Don't break cases/boxes yourself - there is too much risk and the money is better spent on sound investments where you know what your getting.

2. Target a player that yet to be hyped equal to their talent or one that has fallen off the hype wagon for reason unrelated to skills i.e. Wil Myers freak injury combined w/ learning a new position causes his cards to stall at reasonable prices for a long time. Trout's hype diminishes due to being rushed by Anaheim but ridiculous tools remain.

3. Don't hesitate to sell off on a player who may have a great ceiling but is already selling like he has reached it...I held on to Bauer too long thinking his base would crack 80$....I paid less than 30 so selling at 55-60 is a nice return, no need to risk losing $!

4. Pay attention to specific card prices....base are going for 15 but refractors over 30? Buy the base...similarly stay away from base when they are 10-15 but refractors can be had for 20 or less.

5. If everyone else is buying a player, it may be better to stay away for a while. If the price is rising you are buying at a higher risk... the cards will usually level off once people have stocked up, but even if they don't there is a number of players that no one has really noticed yet or are being severely underrated.

6. Pay attention to as many information sources as possible. The more data sources you have the more you know how a player is being rated by others. This way you see who is higher or lower on peoples lists in comparison to your own and can judge who has more room to grow in the future. Obviously this technique will only help if you are already good at scouting talent or you will do more harm then good buying up the wrong players...

7. Scouting tip: Take minor league stats with a grain of salt. Its easy for a players stats to be inflated in certain leagues or deflated in others. A lot of variables need to be considered such as age/level/league/experience/etc but at the end of the day, players are streaky and stats are only an indicator of future success, not a guarantee.

I look at baseball cards as a hobby 1st and as a business venture 2nd, and it has always been more enjoyable for me that way, albeit less profitable!
I definitely do that, I look at it like a hobby 1st, its like a casino, if you are going there to win money, you probably won't do as well and your mindset is just a setup for a downfall. As for #7 though, I understand that stats are only stats but at the end of the day, isn't that what it boils down to. If at AA a "top" prospect is batting .271 with 14 HRs and 77 RBI, that would scare me. It's only gonna get harder at AAA and then the majors.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:09 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by StraWMyerS View Post
From my experiences you can be really good at scouting/prospecting but you also need a decent amount of capital to really make money on it, especially if you are buying stuff for your PC all the time. Heres a few things I've learned about the investing side of the hobby since getting back into cards a couple years ago...

1. Don't break cases/boxes yourself - there is too much risk and the money is better spent on sound investments where you know what your getting.

2. Target a player that yet to be hyped equal to their talent or one that has fallen off the hype wagon for reason unrelated to skills i.e. Wil Myers freak injury combined w/ learning a new position causes his cards to stall at reasonable prices for a long time. Trout's hype diminishes due to being rushed by Anaheim but ridiculous tools remain.

3. Don't hesitate to sell off on a player who may have a great ceiling but is already selling like he has reached it...I held on to Bauer too long thinking his base would crack 80$....I paid less than 30 so selling at 55-60 is a nice return, no need to risk losing $!

4. Pay attention to specific card prices....base are going for 15 but refractors over 30? Buy the base...similarly stay away from base when they are 10-15 but refractors can be had for 20 or less.

5. If everyone else is buying a player, it may be better to stay away for a while. If the price is rising you are buying at a higher risk... the cards will usually level off once people have stocked up, but even if they don't there is a number of players that no one has really noticed yet or are being severely underrated.

6. Pay attention to as many information sources as possible. The more data sources you have the more you know how a player is being rated by others. This way you see who is higher or lower on peoples lists in comparison to your own and can judge who has more room to grow in the future. Obviously this technique will only help if you are already good at scouting talent or you will do more harm then good buying up the wrong players...

7. Scouting tip: Take minor league stats with a grain of salt. Its easy for a players stats to be inflated in certain leagues or deflated in others. A lot of variables need to be considered such as age/level/league/experience/etc but at the end of the day, players are streaky and stats are only an indicator of future success, not a guarantee.

I look at baseball cards as a hobby 1st and as a business venture 2nd, and it has always been more enjoyable for me that way, albeit less profitable!

I feel like this is the best thing I've ever read in one of these types of threads
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:12 PM   #35 (permalink)
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this is what its all about, teaching other good members of the hobby
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:38 PM   #36 (permalink)
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There is no hype like Sportscenter hype. AAA hype is nice, but most casual fans don't know who the hell Wil Myers is, thus making them hesitant to spend money on his cards. Callup and a hot week as a rookie is best. Unfortunately, this never comes for most prospects

I also find low-end is best once they become stars. Casual card collectors may not spend 300+ on a high end auto, but they will overspend on low-end. I was selling Harper base BCP1 chromes for $14.99 in the weeks following callup and his first HR blah blah, because the SC hype machine was hot. Now they can be had for a 1/3 of that
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:25 PM   #37 (permalink)
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There is no hype like Sportscenter hype. AAA hype is nice, but most casual fans don't know who the hell Wil Myers is, thus making them hesitant to spend money on his cards. Callup and a hot week as a rookie is best. Unfortunately, this never comes for most prospects

I also find low-end is best once they become stars. Casual card collectors may not spend 300+ on a high end auto, but they will overspend on low-end. I was selling Harper base BCP1 chromes for $14.99 in the weeks following callup and his first HR blah blah, because the SC hype machine was hot. Now they can be had for a 1/3 of that
That is a good point and agree that SC hype makes a big difference except even if you see a guy on SC, you might not want to buy it if you are the casual collector. But guys who DO know who Wil Myers is are still spendign a boatload at the AAA level waiting for the next Mike Trout. But that unforunately almost never happens so I gotta agree that unless you just get a feeling about a guy, gotta sell at AAA or right when they are called up.

Bte earlier I mentioned a guy with great AA stats and lloked him up, Nate Freiman was drafted in the Rule 5 draft and may be Houston's DH or 1st baseman! Yay me, because I have about 15 of his best cards including his superfractor!
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:26 PM   #38 (permalink)
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Personaly, I avoid prospects. Too much risk collecting them, so many turn out to be no-names, and players that do prosper come out of the blue half the time.
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:28 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Personaly, I avoid prospects. Too much risk collecting them, so many turn out to be no-names, and players that do prosper come out of the blue half the time.
Come out of the blue to 99% of the population, but NOT out of the blue for a prospector who's counting the $$$ as the player goes crazy in the bigs...THAT's the most thrilling part of prospecting IMO.

If you don't have time to devote, you should stay away!

Usually, I try not to give advice to potential competitors, but here are my top 3 newbie-prospector suggestions:

1. PROSPECTING TAKES TIME AND DEVOTION: This is not a game, this is not a day-trading thing. Prospecting takes time and if you don't have it, don't even start because you WILL LOSE. You need time to devote to read up on prospects (through multiple sources online and print), track their games, analyze their stats, read up on their makeup (very important), even listen to games online to get the most up to date info on your player(s). If you can't do all that, you may try another portion of the hobby like buying guys like Pujols, Miggy etc.

2. BUY SLEEPERS- Don't buy guys that are already high priced. Buy guys under the radar cheaply and if they go off, you win BIG. If they suck, at least you didn't put that much money into them so it's cool. Sleepers have a tremendous ROI.

3. HAVE FUN- I know you are dealing with money here, but I've been doing this since 2005 and love it! It's fun to see the guys you prospect have tremendous MLB careers!

Good luck!
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:41 PM   #40 (permalink)
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Come out of the blue to 99% of the population, but NOT out of the blue for a prospector who's counting the $$$ as the player goes crazy in the bigs...THAT's the most thrilling part of prospecting IMO.

If you don't have time to devote, you should stay away!

Usually, I try not to give advice to potential competitors, but here are my top 3 newbie-prospector suggestions:

1. PROSPECTING TAKES TIME AND DEVOTION: This is not a game, this is not a day-trading thing. Prospecting takes time and if you don't have it, don't even start because you WILL LOSE. You need time to devote to read up on prospects (through multiple sources online and print), track their games, analyze their stats, read up on their makeup (very important), even listen to games online to get the most up to date info on your player(s). If you can't do all that, you may try another portion of the hobby like buying guys like Pujols, Miggy etc.

2. BUY SLEEPERS- Don't buy guys that are already high priced. Buy guys under the radar cheaply and if they go off, you win BIG. If they suck, at least you didn't put that much money into them so it's cool. Sleepers have a tremendous ROI.

3. HAVE FUN- I know you are dealing with money here, but I've been doing this since 2005 and love it! It's fun to see the guys you prospect have tremendous MLB careers!

Good luck!
good advice, but i wouldn't worry about giving advice to competitors, a) it likely won't ever affect you if a few people each year pickm up the craft especially if you are a flipper b) even if the best person in the world at flipping prospects gave a "newbie" advice, it still takes several years to really figure it out and even at that, some people are just better than others.
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Old 12-28-2012, 04:43 PM   #41 (permalink)
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I think a lot of it is about picking a player (or a few) with low prices and who is relatively overlooked and hoping that they turn out to be something. They don't have to be guys that are blowing everyone away in the minors because those are the prospects that people pick up on. Look for players with good tools and potential.

Also to the OP, your point about Nate Freiman and asking why no one pays any attention to guys like him. That is because he is 25 (like you pointed out) and is still in Double A. He is also on the Padres. Teams play a large part in picking prospects to invest in.
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Old 12-28-2012, 05:05 PM   #42 (permalink)
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I think a lot of it is about picking a player (or a few) with low prices and who is relatively overlooked and hoping that they turn out to be something. They don't have to be guys that are blowing everyone away in the minors because those are the prospects that people pick up on. Look for players with good tools and potential.

Also to the OP, your point about Nate Freiman and asking why no one pays any attention to guys like him. That is because he is 25 (like you pointed out) and is still in Double A. He is also on the Padres. Teams play a large part in picking prospects to invest in.
ok, yea i knew age had somethign to do with it but he was a 4 year college guy which most prospects aren't so he's still young in playing yrs, just wondered why people didn't pick up on him or other guys like him. but i guess the astros did
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Old 12-28-2012, 07:07 PM   #43 (permalink)
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I judge them 100% based upon their haircut, I must get an idea of what they look like without their hat and then I will make my assessment. Using this strategy 99.9% of the time my predictions work out and I make thousands of dollars
Bryce. Harper.

You're on to something.
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Old 12-28-2012, 11:03 PM   #44 (permalink)
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clearly this forum isn't for everyone, some good tips here tho.
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Old 12-28-2012, 11:35 PM   #45 (permalink)
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But that unforunately almost never happens so I gotta agree that unless you just get a feeling about a guy, gotta sell at AAA or right when they are called up.
In certain cases, maybe. I think it is important to have a price in mind from the outset. I sold a Machado Red Refractor Auto for 1100 back in the beginning of the year.

If I waited until his callup, I would have probably doubled my money. I'm alright with it though, because after being lowballed for a while on it, a guy came in and gave me the figure I wanted. Considering the box cost me $60, it was all gravy. I couldn't turn down the chance to pay for half of the wife's semester of grad school with a piece of cardboard.
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Old 12-28-2012, 11:47 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Bryce. Harper.

You're on to something.
A man can only go as far as his haircut will let him
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Old 12-29-2012, 11:22 AM   #47 (permalink)
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Combining a few posts from what some said. A profit is a profit. If you can make a profit, you should sell. If you wait longer, you could be taking a huge risk. Imagine the people that held off on Brandon Wood or Matt Laporta, they would have lost a ton. Of course, there are players like Mike Trout that had an initial spike and then dropped back down again and then came back for a major spike.

I sold my Trouts at a significant profit and really don't think about how much more I would have got for them after the huge spike this past year.
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Old 12-29-2012, 11:35 AM   #48 (permalink)
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A man can only go as far as his haircut will let him
Former major leaguer now talk show personality, Chris Duncan, said that and to look at the players wife or girlfriend. Hotter the the woman, the better the player was gonna be. He said it had to do with confidence. See Verlander, Justin.
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:23 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Prospecting is just about luck and patience, all the people who colllect all the prospects will obviously bank when a few do good, but they will also lose on others. Very rarely does a guy Just collect that one guy that ESPN ends up hyping up causing his cards to skyrocket out of control
It worked for Strasburg! A lot of people cashed in on the Strasburg hype but if you got in on him while he was in college like I did you made some serious bank.

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I briefly dabbled in prospecting and here's what I learned:

1. No pitchers. Ever.
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Many people will say this but it is 100% wrong, you can make just as much money on pitchers as you do hitters.
I wouldn't say no pitchers. Pitchers are just MUCH MUCH shorter investment. Must flip quick with pitchers.
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Old 12-29-2012, 07:26 PM   #50 (permalink)
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i think pitchers can be profitable but if they get called up and don't do well right away, you waited too long!
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