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Old 01-10-2013, 05:12 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Another Fantasy Baseball Keeper Thread

Have an idea of who I'm going to take, but just wanted to put this out there. My league is a bit more complicated than the rest. We keep five players this year in the round they were drafted in the previous year (12 team league). If they weren't drafted but picked up throughout the season, they can be kept with a 15th round pick. Here are my options, with the definite keepers in bold.

Josh Hamilton - 1st Round (11th pick)
Ian Kinsler - 1st Round
Zack Greinke - 2nd Round
Matt Moore - 5th Round
Giancarlo Stanton - 5th Round
David Freese - 15th Round
Desmond Jennings - 15th Round
Manny Machado - 15th Round
Anthony Rizzo - 15th Round
Wilin Rosario - 15th Round
Chris Sale - 19th Round
Aroldis Chapman - 20th Round

I think I have to keep Chapman with a 20th Round Pick, and then I'm leaning towards keeping Hamilton and either Machado or Jennings in the 15th. I like Moore, but don't see the value in 5th round.
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Old 01-10-2013, 05:28 PM   #2 (permalink)
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What are your other options? Stanton and Sale are no-brainers as you said, but many of these other options are not too appealing. I think I keep Kinsler though. Chapman worries me, switching to the starting role.
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Old 01-10-2013, 05:35 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I like Machado @ 15. And maybe Hamilton
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Old 01-10-2013, 06:08 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Do you have to keep five? I don't necessarily see 5 slam-dunk keepers there relative to their round value.

I think you can do better at #11 overall than Hamilton, or at the very least you can find a similar player. I don't think it's worth giving up such a high pick.

Machado and Rizzo for a 15th seem decent. If you have to take five I would probably do Sale, Stanton, Chapman, Machado, and Rizzo. Value will be there in the first round Hamilton isn't worth it. The steals and late values are who you want to hold onto. Look at it this way, those others guys I mention will go rounds higher than you have them at. With Hamilton not so much.
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Old 01-10-2013, 06:13 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by friarbolt View Post
Do you have to keep five? I don't necessarily see 5 slam-dunk keepers there relative to their round value.

I think you can do better at #11 overall than Hamilton, or at the very least you can find a similar player. I don't think it's worth giving up such a high pick.

Machado and Rizzo for a 15th seem decent. If you have to take five I would probably do Sale, Stanton, Chapman, Machado, and Rizzo. Value will be there in the first round Hamilton isn't worth it. The steals and late values are who you want to hold onto. Look at it this way, those others guys I mention will go rounds higher than you have them at. With Hamilton not so much.
Very good points. That's my thinking, even if Chapman isn't great as a starter, I'm only giving up a 20th round pick to keep him. Stanton was my only keeper that really panned out last year, and I still ended up in 2nd place because I only kept guys in the 7th round or later.

And no, I don't have to keep 5 but seems like a waste not keeping some of the young guys with those late picks.
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Old 01-10-2013, 06:35 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by illadelf View Post

Josh Hamilton - 1st Round (11th pick)
Giancarlo Stanton - 5th Round
David Freese - 15th Round
Anthony Rizzo - 15th Round
Chris Sale - 19th Round
I would keep these 5 based on value and age. Freese in the 15th is a great deal at a position that is not very deep.
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Old 01-10-2013, 06:57 PM   #7 (permalink)
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+1 on kinsler. should have a solid year and 2B is thin.
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Old 01-10-2013, 07:03 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by illadelf View Post
Very good points. That's my thinking, even if Chapman isn't great as a starter, I'm only giving up a 20th round pick to keep him. Stanton was my only keeper that really panned out last year, and I still ended up in 2nd place because I only kept guys in the 7th round or later.

And no, I don't have to keep 5 but seems like a waste not keeping some of the young guys with those late picks.
Good point, you have enough late value guys to justify 5 keepers. Wait as long as you can though, check some preseason rankings. Maybe some guys will project lower than that or about the same making it less worth it.

The way I look at it is high-round picks in theory will always produce. Unless you hit a major bust which isn't your fault, anyone you take at #11 overall should be a stud and help anchor your team. On the other hand, a 15th round pick could be a complete bust and waste of a pick. It's very hard to predict. So to have late picks locked into proven up-and-comers like Rizzo, Machado, etc is a marked advantage others will not have. Everyone is getting a stud in the first, not so many will hit potential studs in the 15th like you already have.

I will say Kinsler in the 2nd isn't bad, it's such a shallow position it's worth it. It's fair value for him but worth it just to know you have a stud locked in at a thin position. I'd switch out Kinsler for Machado possibly.
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Old 01-10-2013, 07:14 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I would not keep Hamilton - I'd go with some of the 15th round guys like Rizzo, or Machado.
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Old 01-10-2013, 07:19 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Stanton, Rizzo, Sale, Chapman, Machado, Jennings and maybe Grienke.

Narrow that down: Def Stanton, Machado, Sale then choose. Do you want the impact now and the risk with Grienke or take the chances that Jennings rebounds?
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Old 01-10-2013, 07:25 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Rizzo, Stanton, Machado, Sale, Moore
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Old 01-10-2013, 07:27 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I'd recommend keeping Wilin Rosario. Catchers are a very scarce position and Rosario is a power hitting catcher in Coors Field. You could always use him as a trading chip with someone stuck with Jose Molina.
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