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Old 02-16-2013, 05:17 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Trout or Harper?

Both jumped into the game last year (other than Trout's abbreviated 2011) and their cards climbed fairly consistently. Towards the end of the season Trout prices seemed to increse while Harper's were static or dropping. Now it seems the opposite is happening. Harper is jumping a bit while Trout is cooling off. Is there a reason? Other than offseason?
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Old 02-16-2013, 05:21 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I noticed that too when looking at prices from Five Star. Maybe Trout prices are going down because Topps is releasing so many of his autograph cards. For instance, there is no Harper auto in 2013 Topps but there are plenty of Trout autos.
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Old 02-16-2013, 05:24 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Trout climbed way too high and way too fast. Plus he has nowhere to go but down statistically. He put up one of the best seasons ever last year. Very unlikely he repeats exactly his numbers although he is still very very good.

Harper has a lot of room to improve on his numbers. He didn't put up near the season that Trout did so his cards didn't go as high either.

Both are on championship level teams, and both should be perennial all stars. I like Trout better but Harper is no slouch.

I am buying Harper still but not Trout until his prices correct.
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Old 02-16-2013, 05:33 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Harper showed up to spring training with a much cooler haircut. Recent price trends reflect this.
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Old 02-16-2013, 05:35 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I think it's just people thinking Trout might take a small step back from last years numbers while Harper could still improve on his.

I agree on Trout prices as well. I sold his 2011 Topps Update RC for $20-$25 all day long last summer but now they are barely hitting $12. Way to much of a drop off even for the off season. They should still be in the $18-$20 IMO.
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Old 02-16-2013, 05:46 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Harper showed up to spring training with a much cooler haircut. Recent price trends reflect this.
Lol. Plus he didn't arrive fat. I know who stole C.C's CapnCrunch.
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Old 02-16-2013, 06:06 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Lol. Plus he didn't arrive fat. I know who stole C.C's CapnCrunch.
Yeah. What's up with that? You'd think someone would be noticing this winter.
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Old 02-16-2013, 06:08 PM   #8 (permalink)
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I think because Harper has a much better chance at increasing his play than Trout does. Trout is also predicted to not repeat his amazing 2012 season.
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Old 02-16-2013, 06:09 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Yeah. What's up with that? You'd think someone would be noticing this winter.
He's 21, I'm sure he'll be fine. If he was mid 30's I'd be more concerned. At his age he can burn it off overnight. As an Angels fan I won't lie and say it doesn't concern me. I hope he isn't resting on his laurels and thinking this year will be a cakewalk.
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Old 02-16-2013, 06:12 PM   #10 (permalink)
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He's 21, I'm sure he'll be fine. If he was mid 30's I'd be more concerned. At his age he can burn it off overnight. As an Angels fan I won't lie and say it doesn't concern me. I hope he isn't resting on his laurels and thinking this year will be a cakewalk.
Love the Angels and hope they take their division. Hopefully he'll burn half off before the end of spring.
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Old 02-16-2013, 06:25 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Old 02-16-2013, 07:16 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Both jumped into the game last year (other than Trout's abbreviated 2011) and their cards climbed fairly consistently. Towards the end of the season Trout prices seemed to increse while Harper's were static or dropping. Now it seems the opposite is happening. Harper is jumping a bit while Trout is cooling off. Is there a reason? Other than offseason?
Would think on Trout there isn't much room to go for investors, just had one of the best seasons ever and should have won the MVP, whereas Harper has plenty of room to get better.
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Old 02-16-2013, 07:54 PM   #13 (permalink)
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I think because Harper has a much better chance at increasing his play than Trout does. Trout is also predicted to not repeat his amazing 2012 season.
harper will get better but never better then trout!
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Old 02-16-2013, 07:58 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Would think on Trout there isn't much room to go for investors, just had one of the best seasons ever and should have won the MVP, whereas Harper has plenty of room to get better.
Yes, it will be nearly impossible for Trout to do any better than he did last year. While Harper does have room to improve on his previous season he still won't ever have as great a season as Trout did. At least, I don't believe he will.
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Old 02-16-2013, 08:04 PM   #15 (permalink)
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harper will get better but never better then trout!
From a numbers standpoint I agree 100%. The problem is answering the op's question. Trout prices are way too high even considering his fantastic season. 2009 BC base autos should be no more than $200 but are commanding twice that. Harper prices are probably right where they are supposed to be. If he has the season I expect I would think they will skyrocket like Trout's did and then slowly come back down to about $150 for a base 2011 BC auto. I think this takes a year or two though.

The reason that Harper's prices are climbing and Trout is dropping has to do with the numbers put up last year. Harper had a very good season but not historic so his prices stayed pretty even while Trout's went stupid. People don't believe (myself included) that Trout will match his numbers. People do believe that Harper will have a much better season and that is why his are Harper is increasing and Trout is decreasing.

When the next wave hits, Profar, Bundy, and whoever is next, the prices of Trout and Harper will come way back down no matter what they do. Look at the base BC auto prices of Braun, Verlander, Felix, Kershaw, Votto, Fielder, etc. None bring over $200. Eventually people will get bored and sell off to buy the next hype and that will lower the prices.

I think ultimately Trout has the better career and that should keep his prices above Harper. Plus Harper has been way way overproduced. He has had autos in most every set for the last five years. Trout has much less although Topps is doing their darndest to cash in and catch up. I am PC'ing both to the extent that my budget allows. There won't be many or any 1/1's or supers but I have quite a few autos of both.

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Old 02-16-2013, 08:07 PM   #16 (permalink)
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From a numbers standpoint I agree 100%. The problem is answering the op's question. Trout prices are way too high even considering his fantastic season. 2009 BC base autos should be no more than $200 but are commanding twice that. Harper prices are probably right where they are supposed to be. If he has the season I expect I would think they will skyrocket like Trout's did and then slowly come back down to about $150 for a base 2011 BC auto. I think this takes a year or two though.

When the next wave hits, Profar, Bundy, and whoever is next the prices of Trout and Harper will come way back down no matter what they do. Look at the base BC auto prices of Braun, Verlander, Felix, Kershaw, Votto, Fielder, etc. None bring over $200. Eventually people will get bored and sell off to buy the next hype and that will lower the prices.
That's how the prospecting game works
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Old 02-16-2013, 08:14 PM   #17 (permalink)
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That's how the prospecting game works
I understand it, just trying to answer the op's question as best I can. Some new people don't get it. They think that every prospect is going to be on a neverending climb. I feel bad for anyone buying Trout RC's right now unless they are ok losing money. I would sell the autos I have but I bought in not terribly high. I am ok with how much I will lose on them just to have them and not have to rehunt them.
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Old 02-16-2013, 09:28 PM   #18 (permalink)
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harper will get better but never better then trout!
The thing is, and I'm a HUGE fan of Trout's, Trout will be hard pressed to repeat another 10 WAR season. I mean, that's unheard of. Harper, or "The Chosen One," on the other hand, will most likely improve on his 2012 season.

Trout not performing as well as he did in 2012 will not raise his prices.
Harper doing even the slightest bit better than he did in 2012 will certainly help raise his prices.
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Old 02-16-2013, 10:00 PM   #19 (permalink)
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I guess Trout should have paced himself. I think he could improve on HR's but that's about it.
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Old 02-16-2013, 10:05 PM   #20 (permalink)
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People know there is no way Trout can get any hotter than he did last year- the only direction his cards can go are to stay even or to drop, regardless how he does. Trout has hit his "price ceiling".

Harper, on the other hand, can still improve on his numbers and performance compared to last year- people know his stuff hasn't "peaked" yet. There is room for upwards movement in his card prices.

That basically explains the current price trends.
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Old 02-17-2013, 12:07 AM   #21 (permalink)
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I watched Trout play in high school, and talked to kids who played against him and coaches. He is a special player, and don't be surprised if he has an even better year this season. Him being bigger this season only bodes well for him mashing the ball.
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Old 02-17-2013, 02:06 AM   #22 (permalink)
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I watched Trout play in high school, and talked to kids who played against him and coaches. He is a special player, and don't be surprised if he has an even better year this season. Him being bigger this season only bodes well for him mashing the ball.
I would give up the "mashing" for being lighter and faster. We have 'mashers' on the team (Trumbo, Pujols, Hamilton). Trout is the only disruptive force we have on the basepaths. Station to station teams don't win very often. Trout turns singles into doubles or triples. I can assure you that this scares pitchers far more than lead off solo home runs. I do agree that he is special but improving on a season that was already historic is a tall order. I would rather he hit .300+ with 20-25 hr's and 60-65 sb's than to hit 35 hr's. If he can do both than have at it but I don't want him to bulk up and slow down to try to be Adam Dunn.

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Old 02-17-2013, 02:15 AM   #23 (permalink)
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I would give up the "mashing" for being lighter and faster. We have 'mashers' on the team (Trumbo, Pujols, Hamilton). Trout is the only disruptive force we have on the basepaths. Station to station teams don't win very often. Trout turns singles into doubles or triples. I can assure you that this scares pitchers far more than lead off solo home runs. I do agree that he is special but improving on a season that was already historic is a tall order. I would rather he hit .300+ with 20-25 hr's and 60-65 sb's than to hit 35 hr's. If he can do both than have at it but I don't want him to bulk up and slow down to try to be Adam Dunn.
I agree. I think Trout will drop 10-15 pounds this spring and be ready to be that table setter we've needed since Figgins.
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Old 02-17-2013, 02:58 AM   #24 (permalink)
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I agree. I think Trout will drop 10-15 pounds this spring and be ready to be that table setter we've needed since Figgins.
Exactly. I bag in Chone a lot when I'm searching for someone to insert in my scrub jokes. Having said that, I loved him as an Angel. He is exactly the kind of player that championship teams need. I have no idea what happened in Seattle but the Anaheim (will never say L.A.) Chone was awesome. I would love to have another Eckstein and Ersty as well far more than having a Hamilton.
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Old 02-17-2013, 03:36 AM   #25 (permalink)
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I hate to be that guy but Trout's neck = basic hormones. Unload your stock before a national publication carries his story of performance enhancing abuse
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