Blowout Cards Forums
Black Friday 2014

Go Back   Blowout Cards Forums > BLOWOUTS HOBBY TALK > BASEBALL

BASEBALL Post your Baseball Cards Hobby Talk

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-18-2013, 11:20 AM   #1 (permalink)
Member
 
dasiegel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 12,270
Default Baez type people, when do you sell?

I was just reading a post and someone said they expect Baez to be the Profar of 2013 with $80 base chromes.

Now we can all wait for Mike Trouts to happen, but if I bought say a Baez base auto for $25-30 at one point and I could move it for $80 on hype and a productive AA season, isn't that a lot safer and smarter to move mid year rather than wait and hope he succeeds at the MLB level and gets more hype?

I mean many guys kill it until AAA and then there numbers drop. Then there are even more people who kill it at AAA and are avg at best in the majors... shout out to Matt LaPorta.

I'm curious to hear some more experienced prospector's thoughts.
__________________
Don't be so hard on me, I'm already a Knick fan
dasiegel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 11:28 AM   #2 (permalink)
Member
 
nera20's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 15,173
Default

For every mike trout there are hundreds that never make it big in the majors. If you look at the past 11 years of bowman chrome for the most part there are very few cards that have ever held there value. There are way more Laportas then Harpers and Trouts. I think people that paid for Trouts last year at the crazy prices unless they bought it to collect are going to be very unhappy when his numbers aren't as good this year. I think he will have solid year I just don't expect anything crazy.
__________________
http://s1064.photobucket.com/albums/u380/mike11681/
I don't ship outside the USA.
nera20 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 11:33 AM   #3 (permalink)
Member
 
ChiSox22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Chicago
Posts: 935
Default

i was also wondering the same thing, about myers too. i have myers/baez bgs 9.5 chrome autos
__________________
PC: Avisail Garcia
ChiSox22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 11:36 AM   #4 (permalink)
Member
 
bigsmoot2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: MN
Posts: 5,060
Default

Sell when you are comfortable with your profit margin and selling on a ST hot streak or a minors hot streak can be just as good as anything else. Waiting for the next Trout or Harper is not a wise move, because that doesn't happen very often. For every Trout or Harper, there is are probably 5-6 guys that don't make it at all. It's all about selling at the right time, you should always be happy with selling at profit whether it is $5 or $500.

I moved a little of my Baez stash this weekend as I can't pass up 2-3 times my initial investment.

He is going back to minor league camp starting today or tomorrow, so the hype will die down again and move onto the next guy, until Baez starts his MILB season and will have to see how he does from there.

Better to sell too early than too late IMO.
__________________
FAN OF: CHICAGO CUBS & DENVER BRONCOS

Last edited by bigsmoot2; 03-18-2013 at 11:42 AM.
bigsmoot2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 11:38 AM   #5 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,207
Default

baez type people, i like that
thenwhatjk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 11:42 AM   #6 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Martinez, GA
Posts: 2,504
Default

I am heavily invested in Baez and am selling now through his time at A ball. All he needs is 1 or 2 hot weeks and his base chromes are $80 and higher. He has one advantage Trout and Prorfaf didn't have - crazy Cubs fans.
danimal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 11:43 AM   #7 (permalink)
Member
 
bigsmoot2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: MN
Posts: 5,060
Default

Look at what back to back games of two homers per in ST did for his prices this weekend. Absolutely insane.
__________________
FAN OF: CHICAGO CUBS & DENVER BRONCOS
bigsmoot2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 02:15 PM   #8 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 2,476
Default

I am holding baez color, selling all else, this was a good time to sell because anything can happen as far injuries, PEDs, you can never tell. His bat speed is off the charts, unless he completely loses plate discipline he is going post big numbers the minors.

There is no guarantee anyone will hit well in the majors. There is an army of advance scouts and hours of video being poured over, All it takes is for them to find one hole in your swing and you get shut down. The difference between MLB and MiLB pitchers is command, almost every pitcher in the bigs can hit their spots, if they found the hitter's weak point, he has to fix it.

It took a few months, but pitchers finally stopped giving Trout low balls to hit, his swing fed right into the modern pitching mantra of "keep the ball down". They figured it out and starting busting him in belt to letters and he hit .270 the rest of the way.
danimal875 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 03:43 PM   #9 (permalink)
Member
 
dasiegel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 12,270
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thenwhatjk View Post
baez type people, i like that
No I'm serious Baez type people, meaning not only Baez but Myers, Taveras, Zunino, Bundy, Gausman, Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Beause to me, unless someone gets called up AND does good, the minor league hype might be even better than when they get called up, no?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
Look at what back to back games of two homers per in ST did for his prices this weekend. Absolutely insane.
Wow, I didn't even see this since I wasn't planning on selling now. Refractor autos /500 up to 115 last BIN and base for 60-65 and I think it's still going up!

One week ago yesterday base was 40-45 one for $35 and auto refs $67!!!
__________________
Don't be so hard on me, I'm already a Knick fan
dasiegel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 06:48 PM   #10 (permalink)
Member
 
neema's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,418
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
Sell when you are comfortable with your profit margin and selling on a ST hot streak or a minors hot streak can be just as good as anything else. Waiting for the next Trout or Harper is not a wise move, because that doesn't happen very often. For every Trout or Harper, there is are probably 5-6 guys that don't make it at all. It's all about selling at the right time, you should always be happy with selling at profit whether it is $5 or $500.

I moved a little of my Baez stash this weekend as I can't pass up 2-3 times my initial investment.

He is going back to minor league camp starting today or tomorrow, so the hype will die down again and move onto the next guy, until Baez starts his MILB season and will have to see how he does from there.

Better to sell too early than too late IMO.
Right on the button!
__________________
I don't even know.
neema is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 07:54 PM   #11 (permalink)
Member
 
Cubs_rock21's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Indiana
Posts: 7,988
Default

IMHO and yes im a Cubs fan, but Baez will be the Oscar Taveras of next year (hype wise)....Baez prices now = Oscar last year.
Cubs_rock21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2013, 08:34 PM   #12 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: illinois
Posts: 3,285
Default

SELL HIS BASE! If your making 15-30 + profit on his base cards its a good time to sell if you have colored autos of his id hold off for a little bit
__________________
Junior at DePaul University!

ALWAYS BUYING RENATO NUNEZ BC AUTOS
chansen10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2013, 01:57 AM   #13 (permalink)
Member
 
dasiegel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 12,270
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chansen10 View Post
SELL HIS BASE! If your making 15-30 + profit on his base cards its a good time to sell if you have colored autos of his id hold off for a little bit
why would it matter, if its a hold on colored why not hold everything?

also for everyone else, maybe because i named baez were are focusing on him, what about like zunino, or rendon or other highly touted guys who didn't just hit 4 homeruns in 2 games? do you hold them if they are selling well now, i mean if they have good seasons u win if they fall off, you lose!
__________________
Don't be so hard on me, I'm already a Knick fan
dasiegel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2013, 02:08 AM   #14 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: illinois
Posts: 3,285
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dasiegel View Post
why would it matter, if its a hold on colored why not hold everything?

also for everyone else, maybe because i named baez were are focusing on him, what about like zunino, or rendon or other highly touted guys who didn't just hit 4 homeruns in 2 games? do you hold them if they are selling well now, i mean if they have good seasons u win if they fall off, you lose!

Because Base is to see the least bump in prices.. On the high side he might get up to $80 but if you bought the base at $20-$30 per card like i did originally then id take double my money and be happy. I personally hold onto color a little longer because they make me more $ if prices increase.
__________________
Junior at DePaul University!

ALWAYS BUYING RENATO NUNEZ BC AUTOS
chansen10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2013, 03:25 AM   #15 (permalink)
Member
 
BuynHiSellnLow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 473
Default

There are numerous factors that go into when I sell or begin to sell off a particular player.

The first is a matter of risk vs. reward. What do I believe is the ceiling for the card and what do I believe is the likelihood of it reaching that level? This combined with my risk tolerance will dictate what my predetermined desired sell range / ROI is for a particular card or group of cards. Of course, other related metrics are considered as well such as potential for black swan events, issues of concern with the player, pricing floor levels etc. but it really does come down to a question of value floor/ceiling and associated respective probabilities of occurrence.

Another issue that must be considered is liquidity. Each year, I usually have somewhere around three players that I heavily focus on. The exact amount I purchase is dependent on how I end up rating their associated cards from an investment analysis standpoint. However, when they have a Bowman Chrome auto, typically, I will end up with 60+ base Bowman Chrome autos, 40+ Bowman Chrome refractor autos, 20+ blue refractor autos and then also significant quantity of their higher-end colored autos depending on market conditions.

With that quantity, one has to consider how to sell off the cards without flooding the market and potentially negatively affecting prices as a result. I have already sold off the majority of my Baez stash. I did this not only because I met my pre-determined desired sell value range but also because between two buyers, I was able to sell the vast majority of my stash while still getting average market value and not having to go through the hassle of moving them piece by piece or have to space out the listings enough to not negatively impact the associated market values. One buyer alone bought over 35 Baez Bowman Chrome refractor autos, 25 Baez Bowman Chrome blue refractor autos, 16 Baez Bowman Chrome gold refractor autos and four Baez Bowman Chrome orange refractor autos all in one purchase.

All of these considerations also factor into whether time phased selling should be utilized where you sell portions of your stash of a given player at different times or over prolonged periods of time.

Bottom line: You sell when you reach the maximum ROI that still falls within your risk tolerance / risk of ruin parameters while also factoring in any potential issues of liquidity.
__________________
http://s133.photobucket.com/albums/q50/buynhisellnlow/

Last edited by BuynHiSellnLow; 03-19-2013 at 03:35 AM.
BuynHiSellnLow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2013, 06:58 PM   #16 (permalink)
Member
 
dasiegel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 12,270
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BuynHiSellnLow View Post
There are numerous factors that go into when I sell or begin to sell off a particular player.

The first is a matter of risk vs. reward. What do I believe is the ceiling for the card and what do I believe is the likelihood of it reaching that level? This combined with my risk tolerance will dictate what my predetermined desired sell range / ROI is for a particular card or group of cards. Of course, other related metrics are considered as well such as potential for black swan events, issues of concern with the player, pricing floor levels etc. but it really does come down to a question of value floor/ceiling and associated respective probabilities of occurrence.

Another issue that must be considered is liquidity. Each year, I usually have somewhere around three players that I heavily focus on. The exact amount I purchase is dependent on how I end up rating their associated cards from an investment analysis standpoint. However, when they have a Bowman Chrome auto, typically, I will end up with 60+ base Bowman Chrome autos, 40+ Bowman Chrome refractor autos, 20+ blue refractor autos and then also significant quantity of their higher-end colored autos depending on market conditions.

With that quantity, one has to consider how to sell off the cards without flooding the market and potentially negatively affecting prices as a result. I have already sold off the majority of my Baez stash. I did this not only because I met my pre-determined desired sell value range but also because between two buyers, I was able to sell the vast majority of my stash while still getting average market value and not having to go through the hassle of moving them piece by piece or have to space out the listings enough to not negatively impact the associated market values. One buyer alone bought over 35 Baez Bowman Chrome refractor autos, 25 Baez Bowman Chrome blue refractor autos, 16 Baez Bowman Chrome gold refractor autos and four Baez Bowman Chrome orange refractor autos all in one purchase.

All of these considerations also factor into whether time phased selling should be utilized where you sell portions of your stash of a given player at different times or over prolonged periods of time.

Bottom line: You sell when you reach the maximum ROI that still falls within your risk tolerance / risk of ruin parameters while also factoring in any potential issues of liquidity.
yea that is interesting. i think pretty accurrate too. my focus is much more broad, i try to buy 3-5 ref autos or better of a few players and than i kinda spread out my stash among other players with potential and buy more if their numbers in the minor leagues warrant further investment, so maybe i have 1-2 matt davidson but if he has a great start of the year ill try to pick up a few early bc sales usually are a few days behind production at the plate or mound. so far its been a good deal for me but when i get a guy say like wil myers who maybe i bought his blue ref for 210 got it graded 9.5 and now its well over 400, its like do i sell now. hes a hot prospect, hype is not bad but he really hasn't hammered the ball so maybe i could wait and he'd turn into the trout taveras-like value. thats where im inexpereinced, when to let go.
__________________
Don't be so hard on me, I'm already a Knick fan
dasiegel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2013, 08:17 PM   #17 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 2,476
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dasiegel View Post
why would it matter, if its a hold on colored why not hold everything?

also for everyone else, maybe because i named baez were are focusing on him, what about like zunino, or rendon or other highly touted guys who didn't just hit 4 homeruns in 2 games? do you hold them if they are selling well now, i mean if they have good seasons u win if they fall off, you lose!
If you look at the hard numbers, the biggest percentage increases are in base and non color autos because these cards appeal to the widest audiences, and this is exactly the crowd you are selling to when a player becomes a sportscenter star. Color's percentages are lower but gross profit vs. labor spent selling are better, but they appreciate more slowly. Plus, they are more fun to look at or pretend you are going to keep!
danimal875 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2013, 09:47 PM   #18 (permalink)
Member
 
dasiegel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 12,270
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by danimal875 View Post
If you look at the hard numbers, the biggest percentage increases are in base and non color autos because these cards appeal to the widest audiences, and this is exactly the crowd you are selling to when a player becomes a sportscenter star. Color's percentages are lower but gross profit vs. labor spent selling are better, but they appreciate more slowly. Plus, they are more fun to look at or pretend you are going to keep!
yea thats a good point i guess the market for blues and up is much smaller!
__________________
Don't be so hard on me, I'm already a Knick fan
dasiegel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2013, 11:43 PM   #19 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Cbus, OH
Posts: 186
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dasiegel View Post
so far its been a good deal for me but when i get a guy say like wil myers who maybe i bought his blue ref for 210 got it graded 9.5 and now its well over 400, its like do i sell now. hes a hot prospect, hype is not bad but he really hasn't hammered the ball so maybe i could wait and he'd turn into the trout taveras-like value. thats where im inexpereinced, when to let go.
Myers won BA player of the year. I dont see him hammering the ball any better than he did. specially now moving to the international lg.


Remember Trout is the exception
decabo43 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2013, 11:49 PM   #20 (permalink)
Member
 
Abracadaver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Eureka, CA
Posts: 1,239
Default

Did anyone notice his tattoo on his neck? I saw the last game when he hit a HR and that tattoo is stupid!
Link
__________________
StL Cardinals
Trade List: http://s6.photobucket.com/albums/y205/jsk6565/ (Be sure to check the Sub Folders)

Last edited by Abracadaver; 03-19-2013 at 11:51 PM.
Abracadaver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2013, 10:39 AM   #21 (permalink)
Member
 
Bjax45's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Mississauga, Ontario
Posts: 312
Default

I think there has been some good dialogue in here. Picking 2-5 prospects to buy and trade for has always worked. I do as much homework as I can if I'm spending more than 75 dollars on cards.

I feel I have a slight advantage with Jays prospects as I know them better than most. I sold high on D'arnaud just before Spring Training as I feel he won't stay at Catcher long and I feel he is going to have a hard time staying Healthy based on his injury past.

I may regret it, I may not. But selling too early rather than too late is always critical to me.

And to be honest, I buy a fair amount of 1-3 dollar chrome autos hoping for the best but they are essentially a lottery ticket.
__________________
Working on 2012 Bowman DJ Davis rainbow, needs: Super/Red/Purple autos... Super/Red/Purple/Orange refractors

Check it----https://plus.google.com/u/0/photos/111355339309597717485/albums
Bjax45 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2013, 11:48 AM   #22 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Martinez, GA
Posts: 2,504
Default

I find the best return in the base refractor autos. When a prospect is cheap they can be purchased for just a dollar or more than a base but when prices pop those refractors will often sell for 2x a base.

For Baez example, last fall I was buying base for around $25-$27 and refractors for $30-$42. If Baez gets hot in milb and does a Profar his base will settle at about $80 and the refs at about $150.
danimal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2013, 02:20 PM   #23 (permalink)
Member
 
dasiegel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 12,270
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjax45 View Post
I think there has been some good dialogue in here. Picking 2-5 prospects to buy and trade for has always worked. I do as much homework as I can if I'm spending more than 75 dollars on cards.

I feel I have a slight advantage with Jays prospects as I know them better than most. I sold high on D'arnaud just before Spring Training as I feel he won't stay at Catcher long and I feel he is going to have a hard time staying Healthy based on his injury past.

I may regret it, I may not. But selling too early rather than too late is always critical to me.

And to be honest, I buy a fair amount of 1-3 dollar chrome autos hoping for the best but they are essentially a lottery ticket.
I think that theory is a good one but wheh I hear that someone went in on 60 cards of a player I feel scared FOR them! Maybe my idea of taking a few cards of a couple favorites and one of a bunch of other guys is too scattered but if you collect mid and high end and you go in for like 2,000 of Vogelbach cards and he gets injured or chokes at some level then you just put too many eggs in one basket. After reading several of these threads I tend to think the ideal number of guys to collect/invest in is 15ish with 3 or 4 favorites you go a little higher on. I feel 300+ is too many but 5ish is too few.

Quote:
Originally Posted by danimal View Post
I find the best return in the base refractor autos. When a prospect is cheap they can be purchased for just a dollar or more than a base but when prices pop those refractors will often sell for 2x a base.

For Baez example, last fall I was buying base for around $25-$27 and refractors for $30-$42. If Baez gets hot in milb and does a Profar his base will settle at about $80 and the refs at about $150.
Yea I think I agree with you and others that auto ref has the largest collecting population and if I'm wrong and its the base auto the increase of value makes up for it.
__________________
Don't be so hard on me, I'm already a Knick fan
dasiegel is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:34 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Friendly URLs by vBSEO
Copyright 2013, Blowout Cards Inc.