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Old 04-15-2013, 03:09 PM   #476 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bankdawg View Post
41 prospect autos???? wont that make the print run of base really high?

Not if they SP certain auto's lilke Lawrie/Hosmer.
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:12 PM   #477 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bankdawg View Post
41 prospect autos???? wont that make the print run of base really high?
Yes print run could be higher, which would make the odds on non auto color much harder, but color autos would still fall about the same if they increase print run only by the scale of each auto that is added over last year.
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:14 PM   #478 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bankdawg View Post
41 prospect autos???? wont that make the print run of base really high?
I'm going to make one BIG assumption but let's assume the following print runs for Prospects Autos ...

1,250 Base / 500 Refractor / 150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1995 TOTAL

And then RC autos ...

900 Base / 500 Refractor /150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1645 TOTAL

This estimate is an average of all players (even if some are SPed) and is lower than the production of 2012 Bowman Chrome, so I think it's a "safe" number. If you run the total number of autos available so far, (1995)(41) + (1645)(10) you end up with a total of 98,245 prospect and RC autos printed by Bowman. Now add in Bowman Black autos, and insert autos (~1,000) and you end up with a total auto count of 99,245

Bowman Draft had six hobby cases for every jumbo case, so in this same coalition, with 99,245 total autos (12 per hobby case, 24 per jumbo case), I'm estimating the following case run:

6,250 Hobby cases
1,000 Jumbo cases

For every new prospect auto Bowman adds on, this will increase the print run by another 120 hobby cases / 20 jumbo cases. This print run also suggests around 3 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.5 color autos per hobby case (which is much more like Bowman Chrome, and less like Bowman Draft where the average was 2 color per hobby case).

Long story short ... it's an insanely high print run which will make sets, base lots and inserts almost worthless.
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:17 PM   #479 (permalink)
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To give you an idea of why this is so high ... Bowman Draft had a print run of 4,500 Hobby cases and 750 Jumbo cases. (And less base cards per pack)

And Bowman '13 may not even be done adding Prospect autos ...
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:17 PM   #480 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I'm going to make one BIG assumption but let's assume the following print runs for Prospects Autos ...

1,250 Base / 500 Refractor / 150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1995 TOTAL

And then RC autos ...

900 Base / 500 Refractor /150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1645 TOTAL

This estimate is an average of all players (even if some are SPed) and is lower than the production of 2012 Bowman Chrome, so I think it's a "safe" number. If you run the total number of autos available so far, (1995)(41) + (1645)(10) you end up with a total of 98,245 prospect and RC autos printed by Bowman. Now add in Bowman Black autos, and insert autos (~1,000) and you end up with a total auto count of 99,245

Bowman Draft had six hobby cases for every jumbo case, so in this same coalition, with 99,245 total autos (12 per hobby case, 24 per jumbo case), I'm estimating the following case run:

6,250 Hobby cases
1,000 Jumbo cases

For every new prospect auto Bowman adds on, this will increase the print run by another 120 hobby cases / 20 jumbo cases. This print run also suggests around 3 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.5 color autos per hobby case (which is much more like Bowman Chrome, and less like Bowman Draft where the average was 2 color per hobby case).

Long story short ... it's an insanely high print run which will make sets, base lots and inserts almost worthless.
There will definitely be more jumbo cases than that, Draft was highly allocated, and was impossible to get almost without buying 6 hobby cases. This wasn't nearly that allocated, if at all.
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:33 PM   #481 (permalink)
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There will definitely be more jumbo cases than that, Draft was highly allocated, and was impossible to get almost without buying 6 hobby cases. This wasn't nearly that allocated, if at all.
Well if that's the case ... let's lop off 1,000 hobby cases and add on 500 Jumbo cases ...

5,250 Hobby Cases / 1,500 Jumbo Cases
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:39 PM   #482 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I'm going to make one BIG assumption but let's assume the following print runs for Prospects Autos ...

1,250 Base / 500 Refractor / 150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1995 TOTAL

And then RC autos ...

900 Base / 500 Refractor /150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1645 TOTAL

This estimate is an average of all players (even if some are SPed) and is lower than the production of 2012 Bowman Chrome, so I think it's a "safe" number. If you run the total number of autos available so far, (1995)(41) + (1645)(10) you end up with a total of 98,245 prospect and RC autos printed by Bowman. Now add in Bowman Black autos, and insert autos (~1,000) and you end up with a total auto count of 99,245

Bowman Draft had six hobby cases for every jumbo case, so in this same coalition, with 99,245 total autos (12 per hobby case, 24 per jumbo case), I'm estimating the following case run:

6,250 Hobby cases
1,000 Jumbo cases

For every new prospect auto Bowman adds on, this will increase the print run by another 120 hobby cases / 20 jumbo cases. This print run also suggests around 3 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.5 color autos per hobby case (which is much more like Bowman Chrome, and less like Bowman Draft where the average was 2 color per hobby case).

Long story short ... it's an insanely high print run which will make sets, base lots and inserts almost worthless.
Chapmans, your math looks good on everything and I agree with pretty much all of it. Hopefully there will be closer to 1050-1100 base autos of each guy which would drastically help the print run. But I have a feeling that your estimate is alot closer.
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Old 04-15-2013, 03:41 PM   #483 (permalink)
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Hmm - I wonder if any of the signers would be willing/permitted to spill the beans on how many they signed - it sounds like the range would be 1200-2000 approximately, no? Surely someone would be able to remember that?
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Old 04-15-2013, 04:11 PM   #484 (permalink)
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Where's Puig????
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Old 04-15-2013, 04:53 PM   #485 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Doublexthebeast View Post
Chapmans, your math looks good on everything and I agree with pretty much all of it. Hopefully there will be closer to 1050-1100 base autos of each guy which would drastically help the print run. But I have a feeling that your estimate is alot closer.

+1. I'm pretty sure Needchapmans is pretty close on this one. I hope Topps doesn't overproduce like in 2010. I'm already scaling back on the cases I'm opening, not getting a great feeling about this especially with so many autos in the $5-$15 range and only 2 autos to cover $40-$60. Great if your scooping up autos to prospect but unless there is amazing value in the minis Topps is going to overproduce by 20% over Draft. I would suspect Hobby cases to stabilize in price once people realize.
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Old 04-15-2013, 04:57 PM   #486 (permalink)
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+1. I'm pretty sure Needchapmans is pretty close on this one. I hope Topps doesn't overproduce like in 2010. I'm already scaling back on the cases I'm opening, not getting a great feeling about this especially with so many autos in the $5-$15 range and only 2 autos to cover $40-$60. Great if your scooping up autos to prospect but unless there is amazing value in the minis Topps is going to overproduce by 20% over Draft. I would suspect Hobby cases to stabilize in price once people realize.
Yeah, I'm hoping to do well on my jumbos. Hopefully by the time I flip some stuff I can pick up some hobby cases around $675 just to bust for fun. I can't do the $775+ that alot of people are asking on hobby. I think they will come don a little after release.
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:01 PM   #487 (permalink)
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Yeah, I'm hoping to do well on my jumbos. Hopefully by the time I flip some stuff I can pick up some hobby cases around $675 just to bust for fun. I can't do the $775+ that alot of people are asking on hobby. I think they will come don a little after release.
The hobby will probably drop a little right after release as they usually do. I think they will jump back up very fast though. Be ready to pounce.
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:18 PM   #488 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I'm going to make one BIG assumption but let's assume the following print runs for Prospects Autos ...

1,250 Base / 500 Refractor / 150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1995 TOTAL

And then RC autos ...

900 Base / 500 Refractor /150 Blue / 50 Gold / 25 Orange / 10 Purple / 5 Red / 4 Printing Plate / Superfractor = 1645 TOTAL

This estimate is an average of all players (even if some are SPed) and is lower than the production of 2012 Bowman Chrome, so I think it's a "safe" number. If you run the total number of autos available so far, (1995)(41) + (1645)(10) you end up with a total of 98,245 prospect and RC autos printed by Bowman. Now add in Bowman Black autos, and insert autos (~1,000) and you end up with a total auto count of 99,245

Bowman Draft had six hobby cases for every jumbo case, so in this same coalition, with 99,245 total autos (12 per hobby case, 24 per jumbo case), I'm estimating the following case run:

6,250 Hobby cases
1,000 Jumbo cases

For every new prospect auto Bowman adds on, this will increase the print run by another 120 hobby cases / 20 jumbo cases. This print run also suggests around 3 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.5 color autos per hobby case (which is much more like Bowman Chrome, and less like Bowman Draft where the average was 2 color per hobby case).

Long story short ... it's an insanely high print run which will make sets, base lots and inserts almost worthless.


2011 and 2012 bowman had way, way more jumbo cases made than 2012 BDPP. in fact some were figuring about the same print run for jumbo and hobby both those years (something like 2500-3000 cases each).

that's the more likely comparison, particularly since 2013 jumbos have been selling like crazy for months but are still readily available everywhere you look. if Topps was only making 1000 cases jumbos would be $300/box and impossible to find right now.
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:32 PM   #489 (permalink)
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2011 and 2012 bowman had way, way more jumbo cases made than 2012 BDPP. in fact some were figuring about the same print run for jumbo and hobby both those years (something like 2500-3000 cases each).

that's the more likely comparison, particularly since 2013 jumbos have been selling like crazy for months but are still readily available everywhere you look. if Topps was only making 1000 cases jumbos would be $300/box and impossible to find right now.
Very possible .... if in fact the jumbos are in the 3,000 range that would mean the print run of base autos for each prospect is much much higher.
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:37 PM   #490 (permalink)
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Lets be honest here, there are not a ton of people that care about the base cards. Most people want autographs and color. If the parallel's are numbered to the same as previous years I say bring it on. The more the merrier. It is where you change the numbering that it gets scary. For example, if blue refractors were changed to /500 it would be time to run for the hills. As it stands though, all we are looking at is more options. You could also argue that it would make the cards MORE valuable in the sense that they will be harder to pull. Several ways to look at it, but I don't care either way. This is going to be an epic release and I can't wait!!
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:37 PM   #491 (permalink)
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Buxton's are going to go insane...

I bet his base auto starts at over $100+
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:37 PM   #492 (permalink)
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Some good news:

@BowmanScout: He'll be in there in some capacity, what type of card remains to be seen.

In reference to Puig.
Im calling it now Lucky REdemption
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:43 PM   #493 (permalink)
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My guess would be that Puig has a Black auto in it
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:44 PM   #494 (permalink)
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My guess would be that Puig has a Black auto in it
ah, i dont really care either way. Just wanted to put my guess in.
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:46 PM   #495 (permalink)
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Very possible .... if in fact the jumbos are in the 3,000 range that would mean the print run of base autos for each prospect is much much higher.

maybe somewhat higher, but it's very unlikley they will make anywhere near 6250 hobby.
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Old 04-15-2013, 05:50 PM   #496 (permalink)
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Glad to see Piscotty and Wisdom make the cut. However, this definitely looks like a product to load up on singles of under the radar guys; not something you want to be busting mass quantities of.
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Old 04-16-2013, 02:36 PM   #497 (permalink)
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No news is good news today ...
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Old 04-16-2013, 04:00 PM   #498 (permalink)
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Hoping they've maxed out the auto checklist already unless they've got a top prospect to add. I'm in the Puig for part of base set camp. Could add huge value to breakers
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Old 04-16-2013, 04:33 PM   #499 (permalink)
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Long story short ... it's an insanely high print run which will make sets, base lots and inserts almost worthless.
Before I even ask, I readily admit that I have no clue what I'm talking about and am in no way questioning your numbers. With that said, I'm curious how much of a factor are the mini's going to be? We're looking at 113,400 additional inserts. My assumption would be that they would help normalize the value of the usual refractors. Probably not enough in numbers to help set values though.
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Old 04-16-2013, 04:50 PM   #500 (permalink)
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Hoping they've maxed out the auto checklist already unless they've got a top prospect to add. I'm in the Puig for part of base set camp. Could add huge value to breakers

I dont see them stopping on an odd number... But will see.
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