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Old 04-23-2013, 03:57 PM   #651 (permalink)
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Yep, you'll see a small spike on release. The big spike will be in Jumbos, always is.
I disagree. You're looking at 8,000+ cases produced with that checklist / making the base and chrome almost worthless. This is almost double the production of 2012 Bowman Draft ... I see much lower prices in the very near future once people realize breaking an $800 hobby case leads to $200 in autos and $10 in base and chrome.

14 RC autos and 42 Prospect Autos ... Topps got ridiculously greedy on this one.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:00 PM   #652 (permalink)
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I disagree. You're looking at 8,000+ cases produced with that checklist / making the base and chrome almost worthless. This is almost double the production of 2012 Bowman Draft ... I see much lower prices in the very near future once people realize breaking an $800 hobby case leads to $200 in autos and $10 in base and chrome.

14 RC autos and 42 Prospect Autos ... Topps got ridiculously greedy on this one.
I will buy every single case that anyone opens for that price. $10 in base and chrome?
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:02 PM   #653 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I disagree. You're looking at 8,000+ cases produced with that checklist / making the base and chrome almost worthless. This is almost double the production of 2012 Bowman Draft ... I see much lower prices in the very near future once people realize breaking an $800 hobby case leads to $200 in autos and $10 in base and chrome.

14 RC autos and 42 Prospect Autos ... Topps got ridiculously greedy on this one.
The base and chrome in a case will never be worth 10 dollars.

You can't compare 2012 Draft and 2013 Bowman. Compare it with 2012 Bowman. Draft always has a lower print run than Bowman regular.

2012 Bowman had a print run of approximately 3260 Jumbo Cases, and that product seems to be doing fairly well.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:03 PM   #654 (permalink)
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I disagree. You're looking at 8,000+ cases produced with that checklist / making the base and chrome almost worthless. This is almost double the production of 2012 Bowman Draft ... I see much lower prices in the very near future once people realize breaking an $800 hobby case leads to $200 in autos and $10 in base and chrome.

14 RC autos and 42 Prospect Autos ... Topps got ridiculously greedy on this one.
To further this; part of the reason you see prices on guys like Addison Russell at $50 / Seager $40 / Hawkins $30 right now is not because of the potential of these guys, more because the print runs are very very low compared to other Bowman products and Bowman years.

Case prices on Draft went from $625 to $900 in a few months because it was realized the supply was so low and the demand was high ... also because you had RC's like Harper, Darvish that could carry the base set and add value.

I just feel that even though you see the good names and think there's a lot of value in there ... it will be so overproduced that it will be very difficult to come out ahead of any good case break.

We'll see.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:04 PM   #655 (permalink)
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I will buy every single case that anyone opens for that price. $10 in base and chrome?
I can see both sides here. Obviously Mike is exaggerating a little, but there is going to be a TON of listings for this stuff by Wed/Thurs of release. I have yet to see any evidence that Mike is wrong in his assessment of the number of cases produced.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:05 PM   #656 (permalink)
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2012 Bowman had a print run of approximately 3260 Jumbo Cases, and that product seems to be doing fairly well.
How many hobby cases? Curious.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:06 PM   #657 (permalink)
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The base and chrome in a case will never be worth 10 dollars.

You can't compare 2012 Draft and 2013 Bowman. Compare it with 2012 Bowman. Draft always has a lower print run than Bowman regular.

2012 Bowman had a print run of approximately 3260 Jumbo Cases, and that product seems to be doing fairly well.
Well Bowman '13 is going to have a much higher jumbo print run than that w/ 14 RC autos and 42 Prospect autos ... with what seems to be a litany of insert and extra autos. Impossible to know until people start ripping but sounds to me like Topps is going to be printing this stuff all day and all night until release to keep up with the Auto checklist.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:09 PM   #658 (permalink)
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To further this; part of the reason you see prices on guys like Addison Russell at $50 / Seager $40 / Hawkins $30 right now is not because of the potential of these guys, more because the print runs are very very low compared to other Bowman products and Bowman years.

Case prices on Draft went from $625 to $900 in a few months because it was realized the supply was so low and the demand was high ... also because you had RC's like Harper, Darvish that could carry the base set and add value.

I just feel that even though you see the good names and think there's a lot of value in there ... it will be so overproduced that it will be very difficult to come out ahead of any good case break.

We'll see.

+1000%, most boxes/cases will not warrant more value than the cost. I know you can hit a home run cracking but too big of checklist to try and bust to make money. I'll be buying singles as always and know what I'm getting for my money.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:10 PM   #659 (permalink)
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Well Bowman '13 is going to have a much higher jumbo print run than that w/ 14 RC autos and 42 Prospect autos ... with what seems to be a litany of insert and extra autos. Impossible to know until people start ripping but sounds to me like Topps is going to be printing this stuff all day and all night until release to keep up with the Auto checklist.
I agree that the inserts and base will be worth a little less, but they won't be made worthless. Bowman is always their highest print run, and the base won't be worthless. Take a look at past releases. It increases every year. Like you said, impossible to know right now, but base won't be worthless, far from it. It's not like we're talking about Series 1 here or something, THAT base is almost worthless.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:11 PM   #660 (permalink)
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How many hobby cases? Curious.
Didn't see that, was looking at past threads and noticed the Jumbo case estimate. I don't think it was possible to pin point the hobby case print run considering there was nothing exclusive to just the hobby boxes.
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Old 04-23-2013, 05:03 PM   #661 (permalink)
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Yes, even pre-release. 2011 BDPP was loaded pre-release with Bundy, Bubba, Bauer, Lindor, Bradley, Baez, etc. all being big time top prospects. A couple of the guys who are currently huge pulls (Jose Fernandez and Austin Meadows USA) were relative nobodies when the product released and current Top 100 guys like Kyle Crick, Trevor Story, and Robert Stephenson were in the same boat. So with 2011 BDPP, you had a product with a strong checklist at the top at the time of release and, despite a much smaller auto checklist, more quality top to bottom both then and now. It really isn't a close call which was a better product between 2011 BDPP and 2013 Bowman IMO.
2011 Draft fell to under $650 a case up until April of 2012......... Like was said, 2011 draft had some time to "marinate" for a while...... you can't comment on the checklist until these guys have had some time to play.
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Old 04-23-2013, 05:09 PM   #662 (permalink)
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2011 Draft fell to under $650 a case up until April of 2012......... Like was said, 2011 draft had some time to "marinate" for a while...... you can't comment on the checklist until these guys have had some time to play.
The checklist was still loaded when it was $650 a case. I have no idea what the case prices of 2013 Bowman will do, but the checklist and product aren't of the caliber that 2011 BDPP was/is IMO.
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Old 04-23-2013, 05:16 PM   #663 (permalink)
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Any body have any guess on what walker and Profar autos will go for?
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:13 PM   #664 (permalink)
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Haters going to hate. I'd lay money on the table when all is said and done this checklist produces more full time MLB players then any previous bowman auto checklist.

Again comparing Bowman and Bowman Draft is hard. Considering Draft gives part-time prospectors an idea on whose good and who isn't as they already have "Numbers" associated with them. Only true hardcore minor league watchers will understand the talent in this checklist. True it might have a lot of auto's but the overall talent makes it worthwhile.

Also that Puig Mini is going to be crazy expensive.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:21 PM   #665 (permalink)
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the puig topps 100 die cut auto redemption /24 is going to hit $1K
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:22 PM   #666 (permalink)
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Haters going to hate. I'd lay money on the table when all is said and done this checklist produces more full time MLB players then any previous bowman auto checklist.

Again comparing Bowman and Bowman Draft is hard. Considering Draft gives part-time prospectors an idea on whose good and who isn't as they already have "Numbers" associated with them. Only true hardcore minor league watchers will understand the talent in this checklist. True it might have a lot of auto's but the overall talent makes it worthwhile.

Also that Puig Mini is going to be crazy expensive.

I feel the same way. I think some people are confusing the concept of autograph print run vs. total autographs. If the print run per autograph is the same, they should actually sell for more because they will be harder to pull. People claiming the autograph prices are going to fall and be cheap must know something I don't know. I agree that the base may not be worth as much, but they aren't going to zero. And with the added content, I think it more than makes up for the higher base card print runs. So again, unless I am missing something Economics 101 says that these autographs will sell for more on average than before.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:23 PM   #667 (permalink)
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Haters going to hate. I'd lay money on the table when all is said and done this checklist produces more full time MLB players then any previous bowman auto checklist.

Again comparing Bowman and Bowman Draft is hard. Considering Draft gives part-time prospectors an idea on whose good and who isn't as they already have "Numbers" associated with them. Only true hardcore minor league watchers will understand the talent in this checklist. True it might have a lot of auto's but the overall talent makes it worthwhile.

Also that Puig Mini is going to be crazy expensive.
What does this mean? Typically, the guys in Draft have little to no minor league experience when the product hits so I don't understand how they have "numbers" associated with them but the guys who have been in the minors for a longer period of time do not.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:26 PM   #668 (permalink)
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I think the checklist is very solid, and the auto'd inserts will sell very well imo. That being said with all these autos inserted in cases, I'd imagine some will do very well, while other cases will be horrendous.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:27 PM   #669 (permalink)
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i think he is referring to when they were drafting "1st round" might be wrong but that is how i interpreted it...
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:28 PM   #670 (permalink)
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What does this mean? Typically, the guys in Draft have little to no minor league experience when the product hits so I don't understand how they have "numbers" associated with them but the guys who have been in the minors for a longer period of time do not.
I think he is referring to the fact that in draft, the draft picks have the Round and year that they were drafted, while Bowman regular does not.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:32 PM   #671 (permalink)
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It's pretty simple. If you open one case, the likelihood of pulling a good auto is smaller than in cases with a smaller auto checklist. (Even if there are an additional 1-2 good autos). It also reduces the value of inserts and base chrome because they have to produce more of those to fill the boxes that come along with the bigger checklist. Lose/Lose.

Can't wait till Chrome either. That is lining up to have a great checklist.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:33 PM   #672 (permalink)
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I think he is referring to the fact that in draft, the draft picks have the Round and year that they were drafted, while Bowman regular does not.
As in the guys in Bowman are all UFAs? Most of the guys in Bowman were drafted and several were drafted pretty high, including the #1 overall pick. I'm still confused.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:35 PM   #673 (permalink)
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the puig topps 100 die cut auto redemption /24 is going to hit $1K
Stop. There is no such card. The die-cut auto list is out and includes the following names.

Autograph Top 100 Die Cuts
Archie Bradley
Carlos Correa
Matt Barnes
Francisco Lindor
George Springer
Miguel Sano
Carlos Martinez
Gerrit Cole
Oscar Taveras
Byron Buxton
Jameson Taillon
Javier Baez

They are not going to have every single top 100 guy sign autos.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:36 PM   #674 (permalink)
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So I'm thinking about just buying 2 hobby cases and sitting on them for a while.

Not a good strategy? Everyone is saying this is one of the strongest checklists ever and that it trumps 2012 bowman, which I think it slightly does. 2012 Bowman cases were around $700-800 upon release and now are $1300 or so on blowout.

So is it a good idea to just buy a couple cases and wait for a price hike or when the product dries up and bit then sell? I've done this with 2010 and 2011 jumbo boxes and have made quite a profit off those. I understand hobby cases are less desirable than jumbo, but just cant justify paying current prices on those.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:40 PM   #675 (permalink)
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stop ? what are 12 ?


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Stop. There is no such card. The die-cut auto list is out and includes the following names.

Autograph Top 100 Die Cuts
Archie Bradley
Carlos Correa
Matt Barnes
Francisco Lindor
George Springer
Miguel Sano
Carlos Martinez
Gerrit Cole
Oscar Taveras
Byron Buxton
Jameson Taillon
Javier Baez

They are not going to have every single top 100 guy sign autos.




2013 Bowman Baseball
Top 100 Prospects
Parallel Cards:
Die Cut Refractor #/99
Autographed Die Cut x-Fractor #/24
Autographed Die Cut Atomic Refractor #/1
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