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Old 05-03-2013, 11:18 PM   #876 (permalink)
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If those odds are correct ... and that's a big if ... not only does it mean bad things for the base / but the base auto print run is simply ENORMOUS.

Purple autos are only available in Jumbo cases ... so we can take the odds 1:1080 jumbo packs and figure out just how many Jumbo cases.

42 prospects * 10 Purple autos per prospect is 420 Purple Autos.
Odds of a Purple auto are 1:1080 packs (or one every 11.25 cases). 11.25 cases * 420 autos and you get 4,725 Jumbo Cases.

Bowman would have printed at least that many hobby ... likely more. You're looking at roughly 10,000 + total cases. Absolute madness.
All of the other odds make sense if this is the run rate on Jumbos / either someone went through the terrible trouble of having this all make sense, or you're looking at roughly 2,250 base autos per player. Major saturation.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:19 PM   #877 (permalink)
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Unfortunetly the odds look increased about the same across the board. Whatever value the chrome minis added to the product has been taken away by the horrible odds.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:21 PM   #878 (permalink)
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Unfortunetly the odds look increased about the same across the board. Whatever value the chrome minis added to the product has been taken away by the horrible odds.
Well, if these odds are in fact true then the jumbo cases should be a lot easier to get after release and the prices should go down.....not up. Which is good if you are buying.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:21 PM   #879 (permalink)
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Best Bowman set ever.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:23 PM   #880 (permalink)
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Unfortunetly the odds look increased about the same across the board. Whatever value the chrome minis added to the product has been taken away by the horrible odds.
The only one that matters is the Purple to determine Jumbo case run this year. Topps made it very very easy to figure the run by making Purples Jumbo exclusive and once we know the Jumbo's, we can figure out the Hobby.

The more they kept adding to the product ... the more they kept producing.

Damnit I tried ...
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:24 PM   #881 (permalink)
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18 months "sober" from wax ripping and counting.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:25 PM   #882 (permalink)
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Production was bound to increase at the rate bowman is being broke in big groups lately. With that said I won't be getting worked up by rumors.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:27 PM   #883 (permalink)
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The only one that matters is the Purple to determine Jumbo case run this year. Topps made it very very easy to figure the run by making Purples Jumbo exclusive and once we know the Jumbo's, we can figure out the Hobby.

The more they kept adding to the product ... the more they kept producing.

Damnit I tried ...
I know, I was just commenting that the odds look correct across the board and not "made up".

The mini odds seem actually easier to get than the regular parallels, so hopefully that stuff helps keep the value there for breakers (such as myself).
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:28 PM   #884 (permalink)
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Best Bowman set ever.
Dont start the hate again, it still is the best set to date. Even if its overproduced, thats not going to change the quality of the players included.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:31 PM   #885 (permalink)
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I know, I was just commenting that the odds look correct across the board and not "made up".

The mini odds seem actually easier to get than the regular parallels, so hopefully that stuff helps keep the value there for breakers (such as myself).
My apologies, I didn't mean to suggest anything was wrong with your comment / simply that if the Purple odds hold true, it's an absolute disaster.

To compare, 2012 Bowman Chrome was over-saturated and had ~1,600 base autos per player. Increasing that run by 40% hurts my head to even think about. But again, all speculation until someone gets a hold of the Jumbo pack.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:31 PM   #886 (permalink)
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18 months "sober" from wax ripping and counting.
Congrats on the sober 18 months buddy
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:31 PM   #887 (permalink)
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Dont start the hate again, it still is the best set to date. Even if its overproduced, thats not going to change the quality of the players included.
It isn't better than 2011 BDPP, especially if the odds of pulling a big name are microscopic.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:32 PM   #888 (permalink)
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My apologies, I didn't mean to suggest anything was wrong with your comment / simply that if the Purple odds hold true, it's an absolute disaster.

To compare, 2012 Bowman Chrome was over-saturated and had ~1,600 base autos per player. Increasing that run by 40% hurts my head to even think about. But again, all speculation until someone gets a hold of the Jumbo pack.
Well I submitted a comparison to the 2012 Bowman Jumbo odds, and somehow color parallels in jumbo are tripled (which makes no sense because the production hasn't tripled) and the mysterious black refractor.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:33 PM   #889 (permalink)
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Well I submitted a comparison to the 2012 Bowman Jumbo odds, and somehow color parallels in jumbo are tripled (which makes no sense because the production hasn't tripled) and the mysterious black refractor.
Yep, that black refractor makes me think these aren't real. No mention on the sell sheet, and I thought those weren't coming till draft.

This product is not better than 11 BDPP, IMO.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:36 PM   #890 (permalink)
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Yep, that black refractor makes me think these aren't real. No mention on the sell sheet, and I thought those weren't coming till draft.

This product is not better than 11 BDPP, IMO.
Agree on the 2011 BDPP.

The black refractor is weird, and is hurting my brain haha. I was going to pick up retail, but I might save my money and just wait till Monday/Tuesday when its really local and try a little bit, because if they did crank the presses here, retail will be no better.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:37 PM   #891 (permalink)
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Well I submitted a comparison to the 2012 Bowman Jumbo odds, and somehow color parallels in jumbo are tripled (which makes no sense because the production hasn't tripled) and the mysterious black refractor.
It may just be that Jumbo's are very auto focused, and Topps held the majority of the color for Hobby and/or retail. Jumbo color in 2012 Draft for base cards was scarce as well ...

Soon. We'll know soon.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:38 PM   #892 (permalink)
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I'm just going to wait and see what the odds in fact are. I hit Topps up on Twitter, hopefully they get back to me with an answer. They probably won't though because they rarely do.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:38 PM   #893 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by needchapmans View Post
if those odds are correct ... And that's a big if ... Not only does it mean bad things for the base / but the base auto print run is simply enormous.

Purple autos are only available in jumbo cases ... So we can take the odds 1:1080 jumbo packs and figure out just how many jumbo cases.

42 prospects * 10 purple autos per prospect is 420 purple autos.
Odds of a purple auto are 1:1080 packs (or one every 11.25 cases). 11.25 cases * 420 autos and you get 4,725 jumbo cases.

bowman would have printed at least that many hobby ... Likely more. You're looking at roughly 10,000 + total cases. Absolute madness.
would think only 9 of each will be packed out....one for replacements..ect
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:41 PM   #894 (permalink)
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would think only 9 of each will be packed out....one for replacements..ect
That's a possibility, although I doubt Topps would change the pack odds to reflect the cards they've held back (if they've held back).

I recall someone asking for a Shawon Dunston JR Purple auto replacement, and getting something else ... I don't Topps would hold back Purples, Reds or Supers.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:43 PM   #895 (permalink)
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I'm just going to wait and see what the odds in fact are. I hit Topps up on Twitter, hopefully they get back to me with an answer. They probably won't though because they rarely do.
The street date is 5 days away. Don't hold your breath.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:46 PM   #896 (permalink)
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I'm just going to wait and see what the odds in fact are. I hit Topps up on Twitter, hopefully they get back to me with an answer. They probably won't though because they rarely do.
There is zero chance that Topps will give you the odds before street.

Big breakers such as Brentandbecca will know the odds on Monday most likely. I'm actually more intrigued about the mysterious black refractor, rather than the actual odds.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:47 PM   #897 (permalink)
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The street date is 5 days away. Don't hold your breath.
O I won't. If you didn't notice my last sentence, I have very little expectations.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:56 PM   #898 (permalink)
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Also wondering where the odds are for Top 100 die cuts are on here? Topps had said that these would be parallels only, and there are no odds for them listed here.
Makes me wonder about these odds being real.

Were there odds for Bowmans Best Die Cuts for 12 BDPP?
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:07 AM   #899 (permalink)
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No blue/orange/red paper odds? Methinks someone is up to something and forgot to cover all their bases.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:10 AM   #900 (permalink)
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No blue/orange/red paper odds? Methinks someone is up to something and forgot to cover all their bases.
What possible motive would any individual have for this? If true, you can bet BGS is rubbing their mitts together.
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