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Old 05-03-2013, 11:12 PM   #901 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnAndrew View Post
No blue/orange/red paper odds? Methinks someone is up to something and forgot to cover all their bases.
There are numerous other inserts without odds, not just those.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:13 PM   #902 (permalink)
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What possible motive would any individual have for this? If true, you can bet BGS is rubbing their mitts together.
Who knows...there are some nutty people in this hobby.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:24 PM   #903 (permalink)
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If my math is correct I only come up with just at 22 autos per case based on the auto odds.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:25 PM   #904 (permalink)
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If my math is correct I only come up with just at 22 autos per case based on the auto odds.
This would mean that something is off.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:25 PM   #905 (permalink)
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Who knows...there are some nutty people in this hobby.
I agree / but I think anyone with the ability and comprehension to put together those numbers (and for them to make sense) would also understand that it's not worth their time and energy to do so.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:25 PM   #906 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rktoon View Post
If my math is correct I only come up with just at 22 autos per case based on the auto odds.
Could the insert autos be replacing a prospect/rc auto?
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:26 PM   #907 (permalink)
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If my math is correct I only come up with just at 22 autos per case based on the auto odds.
I'm not following dude ... how can you determine such a number without knowing what the print run of Hobby cases is?
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:26 PM   #908 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
Could the insert autos be replacing a prospect/rc auto?
Find it hard to believe that insert autos would be 2 a case though...

I'll run the numbers to and see what happens.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:29 PM   #909 (permalink)
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There are 96 packs per jumbo case. Divide 96 by all of the odds posted. Then add all of those numbers up. You get just at 22 autos per jumbo case. This includes the insert autos listed.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:32 PM   #910 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rktoon View Post
There are 96 packs per jumbo case. Divide 96 by all of the odds posted. Then add all of those numbers up. You get just at 22 autos per jumbo case. This includes the insert autos listed.
But auto odds are missing;

Printing Plates are Jumbo Exclusive / Bowman Blacks / etc.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:34 PM   #911 (permalink)
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There are 96 packs per jumbo case. Divide 96 by all of the odds posted. Then add all of those numbers up. You get just at 22 autos per jumbo case. This includes the insert autos listed.

Yea, I calculated 21.36 between prospect/RC (2.67 per box * 8)

So something is amiss. All the insert autos are supposedly low #'d so I find it hard to believe we could be looking at an insert auto every 3 boxes
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:34 PM   #912 (permalink)
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Yes but if you factor the auto odds that are listed here that leaves you receiving 2 of any of this insert autos not listed per case. This can't be true.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:36 PM   #913 (permalink)
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In the words of Han Solo..."Don't ever tell me the odds!"

point is - I have NEVER seen a Bowman product over the last 5 years seem to match what the odds state. In 2008 Bowman Draft, the pack stated odds were pretty bad - maybe you got lucky and hit a blue auto per case. Then I ripped 3 cases and hit 3 golds and 5 blues. Saw other breaks and found that I didn't get overly lucky - the odds weren't indicative of the truth. I'm not saying 2013 Bowman won't be overproduced - in fact I believe the opposite will be true, but don't trust pack odds. This doesn't just apply to 2008 BD, I have had a hard time believing the pack odds on several 2007-now Bowman products.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:36 PM   #914 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
But auto odds are missing;

Printing Plates are Jumbo Exclusive / Bowman Blacks / etc.
Even so, the math would still be off by a little.

Assuming Printing Plates are a little more than double (4 versus 10), printing plates are going to be around 1:2200. That only adds .04 Autos per case.

Without the insert autos, I am only coming up with 21.79 Autos per case. WITH the insert autos, I'm getting only 21.95 Autos per case from what we know (not including black ice, and bowman black, and xfractor die cut autos /24)

Just find it hard to believe the combination of insert autos will fall 2.2 per case. That would make them as almost as common as base rookie autos.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:42 PM   #915 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ajax1723 View Post
Even so, the math would still be off by a little.

Assuming Printing Plates are a little more than double (4 versus 10), printing plates are going to be around 1:2200. That only adds .04 Autos per case.

Without the insert autos, I am only coming up with 21.79 Autos per case. WITH the insert autos, I'm getting only 21.95 Autos per case from what we know (not including black ice, and bowman black, and xfractor die cut autos /24)

Just find it hard to believe the combination of insert autos will fall 2.2 per case. That would make them as almost as common as base rookie autos.
Too inauspicious for me. I see Topps adding prospect and RC autos like there's no tomorrow ... then big insert sets and knowing Topps, over-printing just fits.

Purple 1:1080. For me, that's where this whole thing rests.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:43 PM   #916 (permalink)
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Too inauspicious for me. I see Topps adding prospect and RC autos like there's no tomorrow ... then big insert sets and knowing Topps, over-printing just fits.

Purple 1:1080. For me, that's where this whole thing rests.
True, but the odds need to fit if correct. Either something will be easier to get, or insert autos will actually be easier, or the odds given are wrong.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:46 PM   #917 (permalink)
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Too inauspicious for me. I see Topps adding prospect and RC autos like there's no tomorrow ... then big insert sets and knowing Topps, over-printing just fits.

Purple 1:1080. For me, that's where this whole thing rests.
Only if 1:1080 is true. If you look at printing plate autos the odds are 1:2700 base off of the purple autos odds as stated. They stated odds for autos just don't add up to 24 even if you add all the low numbered insert autos. No way they put 2-3 insert autos per case.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:48 PM   #918 (permalink)
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Besides, I'm hoping the insert autos will be a bonus auto and not counted at part of the 3 guaranteed autos. I know I'm hoping for a lot, but I can wish can't I??
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:48 PM   #919 (permalink)
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True, but the odds need to fit if correct. Either something will be easier to get, or insert autos will actually be easier, or the odds given are wrong.
Not necessarily. If there is in fact a Bowman Black refractor on base, perhaps there's a Bowman Black refractor auto ... (or other variables) Not that I believe that to be true, but too many variables to account for in this list. A lot of what if's and conjecture / but only one number need be known to figure out the rest for certain.

This makes for interesting fodder, but we just have to wait. If accurate, I doubt it changes anyone from busting the cases they've already ordered and paid for ... so best to make friends with Noah.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:50 PM   #920 (permalink)
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Not necessarily. If there is in fact a Bowman Black refractor on base, perhaps there's a Bowman Black refractor auto ... (or other variables) Not that I believe that to be true, but too many variables to account for in this list. A lot of what if's and conjecture / but only one number need be known to figure out the rest for certain.

This makes for interesting fodder, but we just have to wait. If accurate, I doubt it changes anyone from busting the cases they've already ordered and paid for ...
True!! I will still be busting all of mine!!
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:51 PM   #921 (permalink)
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Not necessarily. If there is in fact a Bowman Black refractor on base, perhaps there's a Bowman Black refractor auto ... (or other variables) Not that I believe that to be true, but too many variables to account for in this list. A lot of what if's and conjecture / but only one number need be know to figure out the rest for certain.

This makes for interesting fodder, but we just have to wait. If accurate, I doubt it changes anyone from busting the cases they've already ordered and paid for ...
Normally I would agree with you, as I am in the "wait and see" group of thinking too. The only thing that would make some sense at this point is Black refractor autos. If the case, that would add (if they fall at the same rate as the different between blues and blacks in the non-auto portion) about .75 per case. That makes it around 22.5 autos per case, and still doesn't match.

I just feel like one of the odds is wrong. It's not like they all add up to 23.85 or something and its a little off, its 1.5 per case off.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:56 PM   #922 (permalink)
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Normally I would agree with you, as I am in the "wait and see" group of thinking too. The only thing that would make some sense at this point is Black refractor autos. If the case, that would add (if they fall at the same rate as the different between blues and blacks in the non-auto portion) about .75 per case. That makes it around 22.5 autos per case, and still doesn't match.

I just feel like one of the odds is wrong. It's not like they all add up to 23.85 or something and its a little off, its 1.5 per case off.
But the odds flow perfectly from one to the next.
Refractor is 1:30; Print run /500
Blue is 1:99; Print run /150
Gold is 1:289; Print run /50
Orange is 1:578; Print run /25

It's near perfection sans an extremely small hiccup from Blue to Gold (so very believable).

It wouldn't make sense that one of them is off ... they'd all have to be off a touch if you want to get to 24.
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Old 05-03-2013, 11:59 PM   #923 (permalink)
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But the odds flow perfectly from one to the next.
Refractor is 1:30; Print run /500
Blue is 1:99; Print run /150
Gold is 1:289; Print run /50
Orange is 1:578; Print run /25

It's near perfection sans an extremely small hiccup from Blue to Gold (so very believable).

It wouldn't make sense that one of them is off ... they'd all have to be off a touch if you want to get to 24.
I know that's what makes this odd. Everything fits, but when you put it all together, its way off.

I guess there are three theories here.
1) Topps is just off on their odds by a LOT (simple explanation)
2) (For those conspiracy theorists) Whoever typed the odds increased them for an unknown reason.
3) There is an unannounced auto parallel that won't be that hard to get
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:02 AM   #924 (permalink)
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I know that's what makes this odd. Everything fits, but when you put it all together, its way off.

I guess there are three theories here.
1) Topps is just off on their odds by a LOT (simple explanation)
2) (For those conspiracy theorists) Whoever typed the odds increased them for an unknown reason.
3) There is an unannounced auto parallel that won't be that hard to get
Forgive my ignorance ... but has this never been a problem in the past? Have previous pack odds for Bowman '12 / Bowman '11 etc always added up to the desired auto total?
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:03 AM   #925 (permalink)
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But the odds flow perfectly from one to the next.
Refractor is 1:30; Print run /500
Blue is 1:99; Print run /150
Gold is 1:289; Print run /50
Orange is 1:578; Print run /25

It's near perfection sans an extremely small hiccup from Blue to Gold (so very believable).

It wouldn't make sense that one of them is off ... they'd all have to be off a touch if you want to get to 24.
These odds follow suit too.

Refractor is 1:300; Print run /500
Blue is 1:990; Print run /150
Gold is 1:2890; Print run /50
Orange is 1:5780; Print run /25

You can't go off of the odds flowing from one odd to the next based on print run.
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