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Old 05-04-2013, 12:06 AM   #926 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
Forgive my ignorance ... but has this never been a problem in the past? Have previous pack odds for Bowman '12 / Bowman '11 etc always added up to the desired auto total?
Here is what I said last year in the 2012 Bowman Jumbo thread about the autos per case. I forgot that insert autos are supposed to be extra, so that makes this years numbers even more off:

Odds are as follows:

19.3 prospect autos per case
3.724 rookie autos per case
.641 additional hit autos per case.

Judging on the odds, there's only 23.024 regular autos per case, so there must be some rounding of odds somewhere, cause the additional hits don't count.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:06 AM   #927 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rktoon View Post
These odds follow suit too.

Refractor is 1:300; Print run /500
Blue is 1:990; Print run /150
Gold is 1:2890; Print run /50
Orange is 1:5780; Print run /25

You can't go off of the odds flowing from one odd to the next based on print run.
No no ... I only stated that to show that the mistake wouldn't be in just one of stated odds being incorrect. In order to find the desired "2 missing autos", you'd have to increase all of the odds slightly (rather than just saying the Blue should be 1:44 for example).

It's relative to the flow of the odds / nothing more.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:07 AM   #928 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajax1723 View Post
Here is what I said last year in the 2012 Bowman Jumbo thread about the autos per case. I forgot that insert autos are supposed to be extra, so that makes this years numbers even more off:

Odds are as follows:

19.3 prospect autos per case
3.724 rookie autos per case
.641 additional hit autos per case.

Judging on the odds, there's only 23.024 regular autos per case, so there must be some rounding of odds somewhere, cause the additional hits don't count.
And what does this year's total look like (only prospect and RC autos) if you add in printing plates at 1:2200 lets say?
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:13 AM   #929 (permalink)
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And what does this year's total look like (only prospect and RC autos) if you add in printing plates at 1:2200 lets say?
I get 21.82 if you include the printing plates which are 1:2700 or .035 per case.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:13 AM   #930 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
And what does this year's total look like (only prospect and RC autos) if you add in printing plates at 1:2200 lets say?
Currently, if assuming plates of prospects are 1:2200:

18.53 Prospect Autos Per case
3.26 Rookie Autos per case

Total of 21.79 Autos per case.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:15 AM   #931 (permalink)
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If purples are 1:1080 then printing plates are 2.5x1080=2700
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:17 AM   #932 (permalink)
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This means exactly 10% of the autos are inserts. That is if the odds are correct based off of my numbers. 21.82 + 2.182 = 24.002
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:18 AM   #933 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rktoon View Post
This means exactly 10% of the autos are inserts. That is if the odds are correct based off of my numbers. 21.82 + 2.182 = 24.002
The math working there is a coincidence though. The Insert autos count as additional hits, and there is no way (knowing the numbering for all of the insert autos that don't have odds except for the black ice, which aren't chrome anyway) that the insert autos take up 2 a case.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:20 AM   #934 (permalink)
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I hope the insert autos are additional hits. We don't know that for sure. That just makes the chrome auto odds much better. Either way I don't believe these numbers to be correct.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:21 AM   #935 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rktoon View Post
I hope the insert autos are additional hits. We don't know that for sure. That just makes the chrome auto odds much better. Either way I don't believe these numbers to be correct.
I will have to agree. Topps's odds are usually off by a little, but this is noticeable.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:22 AM   #936 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rktoon View Post
This means exactly 10% of the autos are inserts. That is if the odds are correct based off of my numbers. 21.82 + 2.182 = 24.002
Yea, that's not gonna happen.

If we try to match last year's pack odds (which were missing one auto to get to 24) to this years, we'd have to reduce the odds across the board by ~5%. That brings purple down to about 1:1025 and the case run down to 4,500.

These odds are perfect in situations, flawed in others ... it sounds like Topps to a T!
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:23 AM   #937 (permalink)
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Agreed fellas!!

My brain hurts now.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:24 AM   #938 (permalink)
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Agreed fellas!!

My brain hurts now.
I've got some hot wings and a Guiness (Yes, I'm old enough to drink those of you that think I'm 18 or something!) Let's do this haha.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:25 AM   #939 (permalink)
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Agreed fellas!!

My brain hurts now.
Heh ... fun for me. I'm up here visualizing Cingrani's perfect game tomorrow against the Cubs / was a good distraction.
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:26 AM   #940 (permalink)
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Heh ... fun for me. I'm up here visualizing Cingrani's perfect game tomorrow against the Cubs / was a good distraction.
Man I sure hope so!! I can only imagine what that would do to the value of you stash!!
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Old 05-04-2013, 12:58 AM   #941 (permalink)
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Normally I would agree with you, as I am in the "wait and see" group of thinking too. The only thing that would make some sense at this point is Black refractor autos. If the case, that would add (if they fall at the same rate as the different between blues and blacks in the non-auto portion) about .75 per case. That makes it around 22.5 autos per case, and still doesn't match.

I just feel like one of the odds is wrong. It's not like they all add up to 23.85 or something and its a little off, its 1.5 per case off.
i think there are black refractor autos of RCs
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Old 05-04-2013, 01:01 AM   #942 (permalink)
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i think there are black refractor autos of RCs
Even if that were true, it would still only add .3 autos per case. And also if that is the case, the person who gave the odds left them out for no reason, which is weird in itself.
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Old 05-04-2013, 01:26 AM   #943 (permalink)
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The Non-Auto odds make no sense at all. You can't triple the odds on those without adjusting elsewhere. Hobby/Retail would have to be SIGNIFICANTLY better than previous years to account for this difference.

The AUTO odds don't look bad if you can assume that the two missing autos are inserts or parallels that we don't yet know about. They are close enough to last year's odds to make sense, but not without a key component being added to make up for the 2 missing autos.

If these Jumbo odds are in fact correct, then Hobby will have to be absolutely loaded this year.
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Old 05-04-2013, 02:03 AM   #944 (permalink)
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...And before anyone jumps off a bridge (in case these odds are real), here is a comparison with 2011 Bowman Jumbo (IN BOLD):

Prospect Autos
Ref - 1:30 1:30
Blue - 1:99 1:101
Gold - 1:289 1:312
Orange - 1:578 1:587
Purple - 1:1080 N/A
Red - 1:2890 1:2975
Super - 1:14450 1:14632

So, better odds than 2011, worse odds than 2012, but still a lot of unanswered questions and things that don't make sense.
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Old 05-04-2013, 05:16 AM   #945 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by auctionjmm View Post
...And before anyone jumps off a bridge (in case these odds are real), here is a comparison with 2011 Bowman Jumbo (IN BOLD):

Prospect Autos
Ref - 1:30 1:30
Blue - 1:99 1:101
Gold - 1:289 1:312
Orange - 1:578 1:587
Purple - 1:1080 N/A
Red - 1:2890 1:2975
Super - 1:14450 1:14632

So, better odds than 2011, worse odds than 2012, but still a lot of unanswered questions and things that don't make sense.
And it seems like the auto CL for 2013 is 7 more than 2011, 35 to 42 if I have my numbers correct, an increase of 20%.

So an increase in auto CL of what looks like 20% causes prospect refractors to go from 1:6 (2011) to 1:21 (2013)? Something obviously doesn't add up, and it could certainly be my math at 2AM, so someone please correct me
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Old 05-04-2013, 07:25 AM   #946 (permalink)
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Wow, I just got up and see that I missed a lot last night. I am not sure what to think. I hope those odds are not correct, but regardless I will be busting all of my cases. Very interested to see how this unfolds.
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Old 05-04-2013, 07:49 AM   #947 (permalink)
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And it seems like the auto CL for 2013 is 7 more than 2011, 35 to 42 if I have my numbers correct, an increase of 20%.

So an increase in auto CL of what looks like 20% causes prospect refractors to go from 1:6 (2011) to 1:21 (2013)? Something obviously doesn't add up, and it could certainly be my math at 2AM, so someone please correct me
No, your math IS correct. That's the problem. All of the auto odds are suggesting a 20-25% overall increase in production this year, yet the NON-AUTO odds are suggesting a 250%+ increase.

Again, either these odds are wrong, or 66% of the NON-AUTO parallels were moved to Hobby/Retail. The latter would make Hobby a steal at current prices so I'm not buying that explanation either.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:15 AM   #948 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by hobbiewt View Post
Chrome Base Parallels
Super - 1:6728


Chrome Minis
Super - 1:4954
110 chrome prospects vs. 150 chrome minis. The ratio is almost dead on with the odds. I am thinking that the odds are correct, but maybe not completely accurate on Topps part.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:21 AM   #949 (permalink)
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They may be printing conservative odds as well to keep us from getting our panties in a wad. Maybe they think it is better to print purple autograph odds at 1:1080, and us be pleasantly surprised when they fall every 1:800 or so. Just a thought.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:26 AM   #950 (permalink)
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No, your math IS correct. That's the problem. All of the auto odds are suggesting a 20-25% overall increase in production this year, yet the NON-AUTO odds are suggesting a 250%+ increase.

Again, either these odds are wrong, or 66% of the NON-AUTO parallels were moved to Hobby/Retail. The latter would make Hobby a steal at current prices so I'm not buying that explanation either.
This could be the truth though. Even though Bowman draft jumbo cases were limited the color in them sucked. They could be doing the same seeding with Bowman, making the jumbo non auto color suck.

On another note comparing the jumbo odds from 2011 (which is virtually the same, auto odds) and the awsomeness of the checklist list this year I don't see any reason for people to be worried about Bowman or jumbos.
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