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Old 05-04-2013, 08:33 AM   #951 (permalink)
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On another note comparing the jumbo odds from 2011 (which is virtually the same, auto odds) and the awsomeness of the checklist list this year I don't see any reason for people to be worried about Bowman or jumbos.
This too. People have short memories I guess. You can't even find 2011 Bowman Jumbo anymore and that checklist is atrocious minus Harper. 2013 is essentially 2011 all over again if the auto odds are correct. And if the odds only add up to 22 autos, maybe there are a bunch more auto inserts in Jumbo than we realize and cases will still be loaded.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:41 AM   #952 (permalink)
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Here is another interesting twist to the story that brings these odds into question:

CW ‏@bigsmoot2 30 Apr
@toppscards Was wondering what the insertion rate was for the chrome minis in 13 #bowman, roughly how many per box/case jumbo/hobby?

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Topps Company ‏@toppscards 30 Apr
@bigsmoot2 4 per box.

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RETWEET
12:36 PM - 30 Apr 13 · Details
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:43 AM   #953 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by auctionjmm View Post
Here is another interesting twist to the story that brings these odds into question:

CW ‏@bigsmoot2 30 Apr
@toppscards Was wondering what the insertion rate was for the chrome minis in 13 #bowman, roughly how many per box/case jumbo/hobby?

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Topps Company ‏@toppscards 30 Apr
@bigsmoot2 4 per box.

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12:36 PM - 30 Apr 13 Details
Well, I replied to that tweet and suggested that maybe they fall 4 Hobby to a hobby box, but 6 to a jumbo box....the odds would say that I am exactly right if that's the case.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:48 AM   #954 (permalink)
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Oh the drama! If the world only knew what we go through in this hobby. We need a National Baseball Card Day to honor all of the trials and tribulations that we have to endure.
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Old 05-04-2013, 09:07 AM   #955 (permalink)
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Oh the drama! If the world only knew what we go through in this hobby. We need a National Baseball Card Day to honor all of the trials and tribulations that we have to endure.
and once we all get the product Wed/Thurs. no one will even remember this little discussion!
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Old 05-04-2013, 09:13 AM   #956 (permalink)
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Oh the drama! If the world only knew what we go through in this hobby. We need a National Baseball Card Day to honor all of the trials and tribulations that we have to endure.
Federal reparations for cases with less than 200% ROI.
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Old 05-04-2013, 09:17 AM   #957 (permalink)
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Federal reparations for cases with less than 200% ROI.
That would be unreasonable. I will settle for 150% ROI.
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Old 05-04-2013, 09:48 AM   #958 (permalink)
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No, your math IS correct. That's the problem. All of the auto odds are suggesting a 20-25% overall increase in production this year, yet the NON-AUTO odds are suggesting a 250%+ increase.

Again, either these odds are wrong, or 66% of the NON-AUTO parallels were moved to Hobby/Retail. The latter would make Hobby a steal at current prices so I'm not buying that explanation either.
This is the part I don't get. Why make your more expensive product worse? Wouldn't that potentially hurt future sales on that product?

My "latest" theory is that maybe he gave the hobby odds for color instead.....but still, not sure.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:12 AM   #959 (permalink)
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This too. People have short memories I guess. You can't even find 2011 Bowman Jumbo anymore and that checklist is atrocious minus Harper. 2013 is essentially 2011 all over again if the auto odds are correct. And if the odds only add up to 22 autos, maybe there are a bunch more auto inserts in Jumbo than we realize and cases will still be loaded.
Atrocious? Prospect autos include Profar, Mason Williams, Goldschmidt, Gyorko, Webster, and Belt along with a few guys who still have some potential. Plus there were 8 fewer prospect autos in that set than 2013. It certainly wasn't the best Bowman product, but the checklist is fairly decent unlike, say, 2008 Bowman Chrome.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:20 AM   #960 (permalink)
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This could be the truth though. Even though Bowman draft jumbo cases were limited the color in them sucked. They could be doing the same seeding with Bowman, making the jumbo non auto color suck.

On another note comparing the jumbo odds from 2011 (which is virtually the same, auto odds) and the awsomeness of the checklist list this year I don't see any reason for people to be worried about Bowman or jumbos.
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This is the part I don't get. Why make your more expensive product worse? Wouldn't that potentially hurt future sales on that product?

My "latest" theory is that maybe he gave the hobby odds for color instead.....but still, not sure.
why? Because of what I wrote above. It is not making a more expensive product worse. Jumbos tailor to Autos since you are getting more autos why not give hobby more the non auto'd color? It's not making the product worse. Its spreading the wealth.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:22 AM   #961 (permalink)
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why? Because of what I wrote above. It is not making a more expensive product worse. Jumbos tailor to Autos since you are getting more autos why not give hobby more the non auto'd color? It's not making the product worse. Its spreading the wealth.
The wealth should only be spread equally if the prices of each were equal. Jumbo costs more (even from Topps), so they should have a higher percentage of the hits, auto and nonauto.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:25 AM   #962 (permalink)
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This looks like total disaster for the rip/flip guys. Good luck, I hope it all works out. I saw a guy on eBay selling 440 count sets for 39.99 delivered. That's clearing $25 on each set and basically nothing after you consider the work going into sorting.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:29 AM   #963 (permalink)
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The wealth should only be spread equally if the prices of each were equal. Jumbo costs more (even from Topps), so they should have a higher percentage of the hits, auto and nonauto.
They do have a higher percentage of autos. Like I said Jumbos tailor to autos. You are always going to pay more for autos.

They do have a lot more cards per pack you are paying for as well.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:30 AM   #964 (permalink)
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This looks like total disaster for the rip/flip guys.
A disaster? If anyone wants to get out from under their cases to avoid the disaster please let me know. I will buy them all if the prices are what I paid for my others.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:30 AM   #965 (permalink)
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why? Because of what I wrote above. It is not making a more expensive product worse. Jumbos tailor to Autos since you are getting more autos why not give hobby more the non auto'd color? It's not making the product worse. Its spreading the wealth.
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The wealth should only be spread equally if the prices of each were equal. Jumbo costs more (even from Topps), so they should have a higher percentage of the hits, auto and nonauto.
Exactly. I do think the two versions should be as equal as possible, but Jumbo should have the edge in that it is more expensive.

Point in all this being, there is a bunch of unanswered/confusing questions.

1. Why are there black refractors listed under the non-auto parallels?
2. Why are the non autoed color 250% harder, while the color autos are 20% harder?
3. Why do the auto'ed odds added up only come out to a little less than 22 autos per case?
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:33 AM   #966 (permalink)
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Atrocious? Prospect autos include Profar, Mason Williams, Goldschmidt, Gyorko, Webster, and Belt along with a few guys who still have some potential. Plus there were 8 fewer prospect autos in that set than 2013. It certainly wasn't the best Bowman product, but the checklist is fairly decent unlike, say, 2008 Bowman Chrome.
I forgot about Profar. Good point. Well in any case, if 2013 is as strong as people say then having equal auto odds to 2011 should not hurt. That's the ultimate point I wanted to make.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:39 AM   #967 (permalink)
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A disaster? If anyone wants to get out from under their cases to avoid the disaster please let me know. I will buy them all if the prices are what I paid for my others.
Please let me know how you expect to make money on this, I would really like to know. Actually, for your 24 autos in a Jumbo case, what do you think your average will be per auto for the 24?
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:39 AM   #968 (permalink)
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A disaster? If anyone wants to get out from under their cases to avoid the disaster please let me know. I will buy them all if the prices are what I paid for my others.
Surely you're not serious? I appreciate your eagerness to open these cases but if the stated odds are correct, it makes the set extremely watered down.

Imagine what an Albert Almora chrome auto would sell for if there we're 2.4x more of them on the market than there are right now. Because that's the reality with the print run on Bowman '13 ... Maybe $20? I think that's what the Polanco's / Hansens / Giolitos will settle at after the first few days and hundreds being listed on eBay all at once.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:39 AM   #969 (permalink)
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1. Why are there black refractors listed under the non-auto parallels?
Maybe they forgot to announce them. The Bowman Draft sellsheet shows a black refractor.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:41 AM   #970 (permalink)
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Maybe they forgot to announce them. The Bowman Draft sellsheet shows a black refractor.
I know that, but odd that they wouldn't say something about that, would only increase the hype.

Another theory. If they did add blacks, maybe they made blues 150 (or 199) and blacks 100? Would actually make the math for the non-auto color match a little better.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:46 AM   #971 (permalink)
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Please let me know how you expect to make money on this, I would really like to know. Actually, for your 24 autos in a Jumbo case, what do you think your average will be per auto for the 24?
The same way I have made money on all of my previous Bowman breaks. There is something people keep forgetting. If this product is so overproduced because of the massive autograph checklist, the autographs of individual players are going to be harder to pull. I think there is a pretty good chance that you see fewer of each player at a time, making them more valuable. There will be more autographs total, but that is a moot point when talking about individual prices. I may be completely wrong and take a bath on this product, but I will have a blast doing it. My offer still stands to anyone looking to dump their cases.


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Surely you're not serious? I appreciate your eagerness to open these cases but if the stated odds are correct, it makes the set extremely watered down.
Yep, I am absolutely serious. See my above response. These sets change on a year to year basis. You cannot do the same thing every year when selling. You have to adapt to the market. I have yet to lose on a Bowman product (I skip the ones I dont like) and I dont see it happening now. The "watered down" aspect of this can be made up in other areas IMO. There is just too much added value. Each case may have smaller value from the chrome sets, and more value from the minis. I can go on and on, but I think that gets my point across. Not saying everyone will agree, but I do not regret my cases purchases even if these odds hold true.
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Old 05-04-2013, 10:57 AM   #972 (permalink)
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Yep, I am absolutely serious. See my above response. These sets change on a year to year basis. You cannot do the same thing every year when selling. You have to adapt to the market. I have yet to lose on a Bowman product (I skip the ones I dont like) and I dont see it happening now. The "watered down" aspect of this can be made up in other areas IMO. There is just too much added value. Each case may have smaller value from the chrome sets, and more value from the minis. I can go on and on, but I think that gets my point across. Not saying everyone will agree, but I do not regret my cases purchases even if these odds hold true.
Pride before the fall bud. Good for you that you've made money in the past but you can't this time. You must recognize that everyone and their mothers will be breaking Bowman '13 and there's simply not a large enough market to sustain even OK prices.

It's not just the chrome that's over-produced ... it's everything (mini's, autos, inserts, etc.). If you're opening 2 cases / you have a chance to hit something worthwhile ... but the more you open, the farther and farther you'll fall behind. Whether you paid $600 per hobby case or $700 per jumbo case / it's a losing proposition when all but a handful of autos will sell for less than $15.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:00 AM   #973 (permalink)
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Whether you paid $600 per hobby case or $700 per jumbo case / it's a losing proposition when all but a handful of autos will sell for less than $15.
If that is the case I should have all kinds of people pm'ing me to dump their cases. Looking forward to it.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:02 AM   #974 (permalink)
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If that is the case I should have all kinds of people pm'ing me to dump their cases. Looking forward to it.
Sadly no. Most people feel the same way you do and it wouldn't matter if Bowman printed 10,000 cases or 100,000 ... they're gonna rip them. It's gonna be exciting, people are gonna love the rush to open their cases but when it's time to sell and eBay shows just how much of this stuff is out there, the realization will set in that Bowman '13 set breakers up to fail, plain and simple.

IF ... the stated odds are correct.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:08 AM   #975 (permalink)
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I'm excited to open my 1 jumbo case, and 1 hobby case regardless of the odds, and all this talk. Then again, I'm more of a rip and hold type
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