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Old 05-04-2013, 11:10 AM   #976 (permalink)
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Sadly no. Most people feel the same way you do and it wouldn't matter if Bowman printed 10,000 cases or 100,000 ... they're gonna rip them. It's gonna be exciting, people are gonna love the rush to open their cases but when it's time to sell and eBay shows just how much of this stuff is out there, the realization will set in that Bowman '13 set breakers up to fail, plain and simple.

IF ... the stated odds are correct.
You may be right, or I may be right. Only time will tell. Here is where people differ though. Some people rely on their breaks. I never have, nor ever will break a case that I can not afford to lose everything on. I do this for fun with the hopes of making some extra money. I do pretty good with most of my breaks because I am particular with what I break. I am about as confident in this product as any that I have busted. Again though, I may end up being wrong, and I can admit it if I am.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:14 AM   #977 (permalink)
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Everyone makes valid points... for me, I think the product will do just fine. Take a look at 2012 Topps Chrome Football.... all those mini sets added much flavor to that product. Same I believe is going to happen here. The only thing I am worried about is "what if" some "main" prospect autos are short printed. I cracked 43 cases of 2011 Bowman Chrome and got like 13 Harper (YEAH) but only like 3 Hosmer and 2 Turner. Imagine if they make Buxton or Correa a SP like them? I have 35 Hobby and 10 Jumbo coming for myself to crack and I am not worried 1 bit about losing money on this product. Crack the stuff... keep what you want and then put the rest on Ebay shortly after cracking and it is VERY HARD to lose. Not to mention..... the Blue Wave redemptions will be helping a LOT of crackers as an extra bonus if they know what they are doing.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:18 AM   #978 (permalink)
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Good for you that you've made money in the past but you can't this time.
i dont think thats for you to say
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:20 AM   #979 (permalink)
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i dont think thats for you to say
When people are breaking jumbo cases and hitting a Tyler Pike Blue auto (their only color auto mind you) ... with no color chrome ... I want to see how they can make a profit.

Mind you, this will not be a bad case, this will be an average case.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:20 AM   #980 (permalink)
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Imagine what an Albert Almora chrome auto would sell for if there we're 2.4x more of them on the market than there are right now. Because that's the reality with the print run on Bowman '13 ... Maybe $20?
We'll see what happens, but I have a feeling that you're exaggerating how "watered down" the set is. At the end of the day, a solid prospect auto is a solid prospect auto. Top 5 prospects will command close to triple digits and anyone in the top 25 should get you more than $30. Your average collector isn't analyzing print runs the way some of us here do. Byron Buxton is mashing, his card will be worth $. I see lots of current and future value in this years list, which is why I'm amped. Not to mention the fact that 50% this year's RC auto list can be considered legitimate hits. Lots of auto's wasted last year on players no one gives a crap about.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:22 AM   #981 (permalink)
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When people are breaking jumbo cases and hitting a Tyler Pike Blue auto (their only color auto mind you) ... with no color chrome ... I want to see how they can make a profit.

Mind you, this will not be a bad case, this will be an average case.
Again, I may be wrong, but I do not see any way that an average jumbo case will yield one crappy blue autograph. Just aint happening.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:26 AM   #982 (permalink)
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Wow, good morning. I got to go to a customer appreciation thing put on by Topps at a Texas Rangers Suite last year. I recommended that Topps did something to add more value to Hobby, not just in Bowman, but in all of their products with a Jumbo version. I know some others said the same. A lot of customers talked about Heritage and the auto odds as well, they seemed to make some headway in that area. I wonder if they are just listening to some of the input they have had. It will be interesting to see the odds for Hobby. I am glad I didn't pay $1200 for my cases. Lets hope things are better than we think once we see a few breaks.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:27 AM   #983 (permalink)
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We'll see what happens, but I have a feeling that you're exaggerating how "watered down" the set is. At the end of the day, a solid prospect auto is a solid prospect auto. Top 5 prospects will command close to triple digits and anyone in the top 25 should get you more than $30. Your average collector isn't analyzing print runs the way some of us here do. Byron Buxton is mashing, his card will be worth $. I see lots of current and future value in this years list, which is why I'm amped. Not to mention the fact that 50% this year's RC auto list can be considered legitimate hits. Lots of auto's wasted last year on players no one gives a crap about.
But I don't think you're taking into consideration that for triple digit prices to happen, you need low print runs, and massive demand.

Jorge Soler plays for the Cubs; a good collectors team. When Bowman Chrome came out, the first week his autos we're hovering at $100. Once it was realized just how many of them there we're, they went all the way down to $40 and they currently sit in the $50 range.

Now take Buxton. Add another 600 autos to the already oversaturated Jorge Soler market and figure out where his prices will go after a week or two. Not to mention that there is still a lot of Bowman Chrome left unopened from 2012 ... and the majority of Bowman '13 will be ripped in the first 10 days.

Do you think that 2,100 Buxton base chrome autos will actually command $100 a piece ... for a total of $2,100,000 invested in the kid across the hobby / just on base autos?

I don't think so. I think you'll see $125 chrome auto prices for the first few dozen, then $100 chrome autos for the next 50 ... and then on this very day next month, you'll pick them up for $60 a piece at the very maximum. (And even that's high I think)
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:27 AM   #984 (permalink)
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IF ... the stated odds are correct.
Exactly. And we still don't know Hobby odds, we still don't know where the other 66% of non-auto'd refractors disappeared to, and we still don't know odds on all the insert parallels and autos and paper parallels that aren't even posted yet.

SOMEONE is going to make money on Bowman this year, and it will depend on whether Hobby, Retail, Or Jumbo has the better odds. I'll rip Hobby all day if all those missing refractors show up there instead of Jumbo.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:27 AM   #985 (permalink)
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NC, this is where you are wrong. A good prospect auto is a good prospect auto. There is a ton of Jorge Soler autos out there from chrome, like 1600 base.

Those sell for 50+ right now and he hasn't been playing the greatest.

EDIT: THey were never around $100 at release, maybe the first one got $90 or so, but I was watching most when Chrome released and they were around $60. Then winter hit they dipped even more around $40, ST hype got going and they were back around $60.

Buxton, Correa and a few others are going to always sell well (at least unless they completely tank and fall off the face of the earth). Doesn't matter how many base chrome autos there are out there.

The right guys will always sell well, it doesn't matter how many base autos there are.

IMO.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:30 AM   #986 (permalink)
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Again, I may be wrong, but I do not see any way that an average jumbo case will yield one crappy blue autograph. Just aint happening.
I can't imagine that either ... but that's what the "odds" tell me.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:31 AM   #987 (permalink)
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But I don't think you're taking into consideration that for triple digit prices to happen, you need low print runs, and massive demand.

Jorge Soler plays for the Cubs; a good collectors team. When Bowman Chrome came out, the first week his autos we're hovering at $100. Once it was realized just how many of them there we're, they went all the way down to $40 and they currently sit in the $50 range.

Now take Buxton. Add another 600 autos to the already oversaturated Jorge Soler market and figure out where his prices will go after a week or two. Not to mention that there is still a lot of Bowman Chrome left unopened from 2012 ... and the majority of Bowman '13 will be ripped in the first 10 days.

Do you think that 2,100 Buxton base chrome autos will actually command $100 a piece ... for a total of $2,100,000 invested in the kid across the hobby / just on base autos?

I don't think so. I think you'll see $125 chrome auto prices for the first few dozen, then $100 chrome autos for the next 50 ... and then on this very day next month, you'll pick them up for $60 a piece at the very maximum. (And even that's high I think)
I agree with your final paragraph, but they won't tank because there are so many. They will go down because that is how it always works with Bowman and Bowman Chrome, start really high then drop and settle around their price, which I think will be $50-60. Then performance and hype will drive the prices from there.

I don't think Buxton is a $100 chrome auto (maybe the first few), but after that no way.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:33 AM   #988 (permalink)
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Again, I may be wrong, but I do not see any way that an average jumbo case will yield one crappy blue autograph. Just aint happening.
It already happened in 2011. Those auto odds are even worse (see my earlier post). I ripped both Jumbo and Hobby in 2011 and I can tell you from my 4 cases that I only hit one auto better than a Blue. So it has happened.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:33 AM   #989 (permalink)
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2010 Bowman Chrome was massively overproduced.

Base autos and non auto chrome base of the right guys (Sano, Myers, etc.) still sell extremely well.

The first chromes (auto/non auto) of the right guys will always do well.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:34 AM   #990 (permalink)
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NC, this is where you are wrong. A good prospect auto is a good prospect auto. There is a ton of Jorge Soler autos out there from chrome, like 1600 base.

Those sell for 50+ right now and he hasn't been playing the greatest.

EDIT: THey were never around $100 at release, maybe the first one got $90 or so, but I was watching most when Chrome released and they were around $60. Then winter hit they dipped even more around $40, ST hype got going and they were back around $60.

Buxton, Correa and a few others are going to always sell well (at least unless they completely tank and fall off the face of the earth). Doesn't matter how many base chrome autos there are out there.

The right guys will always sell well, it doesn't matter how many base autos there are.

IMO.
I agree with this, and also think color autos on average will fall 2 per case in jumbo.

Topps is usually conservative with their odds, and overall for a print run, for full unbiased reviews on cases, you see cases that beat the odds more than cases that don't. Blue autos may be stated 1:99, but in reality it could be something like 1:80 or so. It happens, but obviously we'll see when the product hits.

Even with the current odds, color autos will fall around 2-3 per case (.67 color rookie autos, 1.58 color prospect autos).
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:36 AM   #991 (permalink)
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NC, this is where you are wrong. A good prospect auto is a good prospect auto. There is a ton of Jorge Soler autos out there from chrome, like 1600 base.

Those sell for 50+ right now and he hasn't been playing the greatest.

EDIT: THey were never around $100 at release, maybe the first one got $90 or so, but I was watching most when Chrome released and they were around $60. Then winter hit they dipped even more around $40, ST hype got going and they were back around $60.

Buxton, Correa and a few others are going to always sell well (at least unless they completely tank and fall off the face of the earth). Doesn't matter how many base chrome autos there are out there.

The right guys will always sell well, it doesn't matter how many base autos there are.

IMO.
Comon ... of course it matters. Every-time a Buxton auto is sold, that's one less buyer for the next one (or a less interested buyer). And I know people will say "If a Buxton auto is $60 I'll buy them all day long" ... well go for it. You can have 50, I can have 50 and a dozen other collectors can have 50 ... and when he gets promoted to the show, we can all sell at the same time and make our nickels or dimes.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:41 AM   #992 (permalink)
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Comon ... of course it matters. Every-time a Buxton auto is sold, that's one less buyer for the next one (or a less interested buyer). And I know people will say "If a Buxton auto is $60 I'll buy them all day long" ... well go for it. You can have 50, I can have 50 and a dozen other collectors can have 50 ... and when he gets promoted to the show, we can all sell at the same time and make our nickels or dimes.
That's where we agree to disagree.

A good prospect auto is a good prospect auto.

There are a million Bryce Harper base chromes out there, people will pay good money for any of them.

You know why, because it is the right player.

Cornering the market in prospecting isn't always the way to go. There are different times to sell to make money.

I will stand by that the right players will always sell well.

Buxton will be around $60, gets more smoking hot then he is now, get promoted, gets some hype. Could hit $100+, people will buy because of hype, not because of how many there are out there.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:42 AM   #993 (permalink)
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I agree with this, and also think color autos on average will fall 2 per case in jumbo.

Topps is usually conservative with their odds, and overall for a print run, for full unbiased reviews on cases, you see cases that beat the odds more than cases that don't. Blue autos may be stated 1:99, but in reality it could be something like 1:80 or so. It happens, but obviously we'll see when the product hits.

Even with the current odds, color autos will fall around 2-3 per case (.67 color rookie autos, 1.58 color prospect autos).
Very true ... allow me to toss in a Jake Odorizzi Gold auto as well.

Listen / I know there's a lot of hype here and a lot of "Ohh my God, the checklist is AWESOME" but I'm simply trying to ground expectations based on what appears to be a very very terrible print run.

People may think the checklist is awesome and the players are awesome but if Topps overprint's their base, their chrome, their mini's, their die-cuts and their autos / it makes for one of the worst releases, not one of the best.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:43 AM   #994 (permalink)
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Comon ... of course it matters. Every-time a Buxton auto is sold, that's one less buyer for the next one (or a less interested buyer). And I know people will say "If a Buxton auto is $60 I'll buy them all day long" ... well go for it. You can have 50, I can have 50 and a dozen other collectors can have 50 ... and when he gets promoted to the show, we can all sell at the same time and make our nickels or dimes.
One could argue from a different standpoint as well. We all know that everyone wants to be a prospector these days. If the print run was raised by 30% (just throwing a number out there) then who is to say that the prospecting world has not also grown by 30%. If that is the case there will be the same average number of buyers for the same average number of cards.

I think you are an intelligent person, but you seem to be jumping to some conclusions with this product. You are assumming everything on the bad side and making no assumptions for the positives. Maybe you are just too familiar with how Topps does business...lol. I am making the same assumptions with Bowman Chrome, so its all good.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:45 AM   #995 (permalink)
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That's where we agree to disagree.

A good prospect auto is a good prospect auto.

There are a million Bryce Harper base chromes out there, people will pay good money for any of them.

You know why, because it is the right player.

Cornering the market in prospecting isn't always the way to go. There are different times to sell to make money.

I will stand by that the right players will always sell well.

Buxton will be around $60, gets more smoking hot then he is now, get promoted, gets some hype. Could hit $100+, people will buy because of hype, not because of how many there are out there.
True to a certain extent, but when Buxton is promoted and there's 400 active eBay listings of his chrome autos ... it will be hard to keep prices high. Potential buyers will already own his autos, so then who's left to buy?
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:48 AM   #996 (permalink)
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One could argue from a different standpoint as well. We all know that everyone wants to be a prospector these days. If the print run was raised by 30% (just throwing a number out there) then who is to say that the prospecting world has not also grown by 30%. If that is the case there will be the same average number of buyers for the same average number of cards.

I think you are an intelligent person, but you seem to be jumping to some conclusions with this product. You are assumming everything on the bad side and making no assumptions for the positives. Maybe you are just too familiar with how Topps does business...lol. I am making the same assumptions with Bowman Chrome, so its all good.
Good point, and that hasn't been discussed yet. This market has definitely grown each year since 2010. I see it at card shows, I see it on eBay, I see it on forums. For a hobby that almost died, it has really come screaming back.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:49 AM   #997 (permalink)
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What autos will be available in retail?
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:49 AM   #998 (permalink)
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One could argue from a different standpoint as well. We all know that everyone wants to be a prospector these days. If the print run was raised by 30% (just throwing a number out there) then who is to say that the prospecting world has not also grown by 30%. If that is the case there will be the same average number of buyers for the same average number of cards.

I think you are an intelligent person, but you seem to be jumping to some conclusions with this product. You are assumming everything on the bad side and making no assumptions for the positives. Maybe you are just too familiar with how Topps does business...lol. I am making the same assumptions with Bowman Chrome, so its all good.
No no, I assume the positive. A higher print run will make the color autos more valuable / more sought after because there's a finite number of them. To me, that's the only positive here though / I see Bowman '13 flopping and thus turning people away from future releases (partly because the sour taste, partly because the money lost)

But I think you raise a good point / although I'm gonna twist it. I would absolutely love for the prospecting market to increase year in and year out but I think it's headed in the opposite direction.

IMHO, every new year brings LESS collectors (and less prospectors) to the table and thus printing more will not satisfy this demand. To me, the demands is already satisfied, and now will be over saturated.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:50 AM   #999 (permalink)
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Good point, and that hasn't been discussed yet. This market has definitely grown each year since 2010. I see it at card shows, I see it on eBay, I see it on forums. For a hobby that almost died, it has really come screaming back.
I'd fight you to the death on this one. There is no way, this hobby is gaining in popularity. I think you're seeing the current generation investing more / not a new generation of collectors.
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Old 05-04-2013, 11:52 AM   #1000 (permalink)
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Very true ... allow me to toss in a Jake Odorizzi Gold auto as well.

Listen / I know there's a lot of hype here and a lot of "Ohh my God, the checklist is AWESOME" but I'm simply trying to ground expectations based on what appears to be a very very terrible print run.

People may think the checklist is awesome and the players are awesome but if Topps overprint's their base, their chrome, their mini's, their die-cuts and their autos / it makes for one of the worst releases, not one of the best.
Well sure there will be cases where the two color autos will be Tyler Pike and Jake Odorizzi, but there will also be cases where you could get a Manny Machado Blue and a Taijuan Walker Gold. When it comes to color autos, everyone has an equal chance.
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