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Old 05-06-2013, 11:49 AM   #1076 (permalink)
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Comon guys ... seriously all the case breakers on here can't still be buying into the "Odds don't really matter" mumbo jumbo.

If accurate, this is just insane. Hope your refractor auto per case is a good one...
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:50 AM   #1077 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doublexthebeast View Post
So, 1:38 on the prospect auto's? That doesn't make much sense at all. Also, 4.3 base refractor's per case. lol. That seems pretty dumb.
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Originally Posted by auctionjmm View Post
Rookie Auto odds are MUCH better this year for Hobby than last year, so that explains that.
Summation of all auto odds gets you to 1 auto in every 24.4 packs ... so it's close if not spot-on.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:50 AM   #1078 (permalink)
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No paper parallel odds, still?
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:51 AM   #1079 (permalink)
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Quote:
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No paper parallel odds, still?
Or Top 100 odds either.

If these are true, case breakers are going to take a beating.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:53 AM   #1080 (permalink)
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The wise among you that are hoping to turn a profit will sell your cases sealed before the market fully realizes these odds. Scanning the jumbo and hobby odds convinced me not to even buy one box to open with my boys.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:53 AM   #1081 (permalink)
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It looks like they are transitioning into replacing base refractor's /500 with mini refractor's. I don't think I like that.
I was under the assumption that base refractors would still be #'d to /500, and maybe they are. This adds to the mystery behind the jumbo odds though: WHERE did all the refractors go if they can't be found in Hobby or Jumbo? The inconsistency between non-auto and auto odds is boggling my mind.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:54 AM   #1082 (permalink)
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What was the allocation from Topps? Did you have to buy 5 hobby cases for 1 jumbo cases, just curious this could help figure out print run from these odds.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:56 AM   #1083 (permalink)
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Quote:
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The wise among you that are hoping to turn a profit will sell your cases sealed before the market fully realizes these odds. Scanning the jumbo and hobby odds convinced me not to even buy one box to open with my boys.
The wise among us will have made our money before it matters. These odds are not significantly worse than 2012 (for hobby) and do include the addition of Black Refractors and Mini Chrome Refractors to ease the blow. Any and all overreaction to these odds is completely ignoring last year.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:57 AM   #1084 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
What was the allocation from Topps? Did you have to buy 5 hobby cases for 1 jumbo cases, just curious this could help figure out print run from these odds.
I'm not sure what everyone else was told, but the dealers I talked to said that their distributors were wanting 2:1 this year. One said 3:1......so somewhere in that range.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:57 AM   #1085 (permalink)
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I'm still confused by the black refractors.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:57 AM   #1086 (permalink)
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I'm not sure what everyone else was told, but the dealers I talked to said that their distributors were wanting 2:1 this year. One said 3:1......so somewhere in that range.
My LCS owner, who buys direct from Topps, was getting 1:1
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:58 AM   #1087 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by auctionjmm View Post
The wise among us will have made our money before it matters. These odds are not significantly worse than 2012 (for hobby) and do include the addition of Black Refractors and Mini Chrome Refractors to ease the blow. Any and all overreaction to these odds is completely ignoring last year.
I'm speaking ignorantly here ... was there this much hype for 2012 Bowman?
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:58 AM   #1088 (permalink)
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The wise among you that are hoping to turn a profit will sell your cases sealed before the market fully realizes these odds.
Nah, you just have to be fast. I am still looking for people who want to dump their cases.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:59 AM   #1089 (permalink)
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I'm speaking ignorantly here ... was there this much hype for 2012 Bowman?
As much or more than this one.

I still think the auto checklist is better for 12 than 13.
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Old 05-06-2013, 11:59 AM   #1090 (permalink)
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Quote:
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I'm speaking ignorantly here ... was there this much hype for 2012 Bowman?
Every Bowman release for the last few years has gotten more hype than the previous year. It will happen with BC and Draft this year too. It is because so many people are trying to be prospectors and ripper/flippers.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:00 PM   #1091 (permalink)
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I'm speaking ignorantly here ... was there this much hype for 2012 Bowman?
MUCH more IMO. That's why I'm shocked that production was increased at all. 2013 Bowman was all crickets until just a couple months ago. I honestly figured it would be under-ordered and experience a down year. Topps requires dealers to order about 6 months out and there was far less excitement 6 months ago than what there was from the get-go with 2012.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:05 PM   #1092 (permalink)
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So now that we know the Hobby Odds, we can figure out how many cases we're produced based on the autos print run. Let's take Blue. As the odds in Jumbo were 1:99 packs and we knew 4,750 cases of Jumbo will be produced, that means all Jumbo cases will contain 4,606 Prospect Blue Autos. The total number of Blue autos printed (42*150) is 6,300 ... that means Hobby cases will contain the remaining 1,694 Blue autos (some held back for replacements so number below will be slightly inflated).

As a blue auto falls just under one per two cases ... that makes for 3,400 Hobby cases produced. So 3,400 Hobby cases / 4,750 Jumbo cases ... here's what we've got for Base auto print run.

1551 base autos per player in Jumbo / 613 base autos per player in Hobby. Total print run of base autos ... 2,164. Let's say Topps holds back 64 for replacements. 2,100 Base Autos per prospect.

To confirm this, the remaining autos and chrome amounts should match / but I'm not putting that kind of work in!
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:09 PM   #1093 (permalink)
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So now that we know the Hobby Odds, we can figure out how many cases we're produced based on the autos print run. Let's take Blue. As the odds in Jumbo were 1:99 packs and we knew 4,750 cases of Jumbo will be produced, that means all Jumbo cases will contain 4,606 Prospect Blue Autos. The total number of Blue autos printed (42*150) is 6,300 ... that means Hobby cases will contain the remaining 1,694 Blue autos (some held back for replacements so number below will be slightly inflated).

As a blue auto falls just under one per two cases ... that makes for 3,400 Hobby cases produced. So 3,400 Hobby cases / 4,750 Jumbo cases ... here's what we've got for Base auto print run.

1551 base autos per player in Jumbo / 613 base autos per player in Hobby. Total print run of base autos ... 2,164. Let's say Topps holds back 64 for replacements. 2,100 Base Autos per prospect.
So, a TOTAL production increase of 36% over last year, yet the odds on Non-Auto parallels increased by 250% in Jumbo and NOT improved in Hobby to adjust. Where are all the missing refractors? Are they just numbered lower this year? I am confused.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:09 PM   #1094 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
So now that we know the Hobby Odds, we can figure out how many cases we're produced based on the autos print run. Let's take Blue. As the odds in Jumbo were 1:99 packs and we knew 4,750 cases of Jumbo will be produced, that means all Jumbo cases will contain 4,606 Prospect Blue Autos. The total number of Blue autos printed (42*150) is 6,300 ... that means Hobby cases will contain the remaining 1,694 Blue autos (some held back for replacements so number below will be slightly inflated).

As a blue auto falls just under one per two cases ... that makes for 3,400 Hobby cases produced. So 3,400 Hobby cases / 4,750 Jumbo cases ... here's what we've got for Base auto print run.

1551 base autos per player in Jumbo / 613 base autos per player in Hobby. Total print run of base autos ... 2,164. Let's say Topps holds back 64 for replacements. 2,100 Base Autos per prospect.
Seems logical to me.

Do they usually have more jumbo cases than hobby? I thought it was usually the other way around by a substantial margin.

This would mean around 8,150 cases produced total.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:12 PM   #1095 (permalink)
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I think the ratio is wrong.
Because if it's right.It's only 3300 HOBBY case but 4725 JUMBO case.
I don't think TOPPS made HOBBY case less than JUMBO case.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:13 PM   #1096 (permalink)
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Quote:
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So, a TOTAL production increase of 36% over last year, yet the odds on Non-Auto parallels increased by 250% in Jumbo and NOT improved in Hobby to adjust. Where are all the missing refractors? Are they just numbered lower this year? I am confused.
Ok, I'm gonna run the numbers on base Orange refractors now to see if I get the desired total.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:14 PM   #1097 (permalink)
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here are all the odds for jumbo (note also the top 100 inserts are no longer 1 per jumbo pack, ought oh!)
also excuse my short-hand

Rc auto 53
Ref 122
Blue 187
Gold 934
Org 1868
Red 9037
Sf 46683
PP 8640
St/hmt base // 4
Blue base 10
Org base 21
Red base 3364
Slvr ice base 6
Red ice base 135
Pur ice base 336
White ice base 3364
Top 100 6
Dc ref 116
Dc xf auto 5800
Dc at r auto 65000
Bow pros chal 2
Mini chr ref 2
Bl 31
Red 987
SF 4934
65th ann 6
65th ann auto 61837
st/hmtn pros // 3
Blue pros 21
Org pros 42
Red pros 6728
Slv ice pros 6
Red ice pros 269
Pur ice pros 673
White ice pros 6728
Chr ref pros 21
Blue pros 42
Black pros 68
Gold pros 209
Org pros 419
Red pros 1346
Sf pros 6728
Chr auto pros 7
Ref au 30
Blue au 99
Gold au 289
Org au 578
Pur au 1080
Red au 2890
Sf au 14450
PP au 2824
Social media graph 5500
Bow black au 971
Dual ff auto 4700
Fut game relic 1843
Aflac/PG 644
UArmor 644
Ult pros book 148007
Lucky redemption 1-5 11170 each
Base/prosp pp 588
Prosp ice auto 4000
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:16 PM   #1098 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brentandbecca View Post
here are all the odds for jumbo (note also the top 100 inserts are no longer 1 per jumbo pack, ought oh!)
also excuse my short-hand

Rc auto 53
Ref 122
Blue 187
Gold 934
Org 1868
Red 9037
Sf 46683
PP 8640
St/hmt base // 4
Blue base 10
Org base 21
Red base 3364
Slvr ice base 6
Red ice base 135
Pur ice base 336
White ice base 3364
Top 100 6
Dc ref 116
Dc xf auto 5800
Dc at r auto 65000
Bow pros chal 2
Mini chr ref 2
Bl 31
Red 987
SF 4934
65th ann 6
65th ann auto 61837
st/hmtn pros // 3
Blue pros 21
Org pros 42
Red pros 6728
Slv ice pros 6
Red ice pros 269
Pur ice pros 673
White ice pros 6728
Chr ref pros 21
Blue pros 42
Black pros 68
Gold pros 209
Org pros 419
Red pros 1346
Sf pros 6728
Chr auto pros 7
Ref au 30
Blue au 99
Gold au 289
Org au 578
Pur au 1080
Red au 2890
Sf au 14450
PP au 2824
Social media graph 5500
Bow black au 971
Dual ff auto 4700
Fut game relic 1843
Aflac/PG 644
UArmor 644
Ult pros book 148007
Lucky redemption 1-5 11170 each
Base/prosp pp 588
Prosp ice auto 4000
Well there you go ... it's all confirmed now / initial odds post was accurate.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:18 PM   #1099 (permalink)
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so its better to get hobby vs jumbo?
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:18 PM   #1100 (permalink)
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I did you method with superfractor (non auto) NC.

67.4 of the superfractors are in jumbo cases since 4725 was the # of jumbo, same odds brent just posted.

Leaves 42.6 supers for hobby, and I get about 3185 or so cases of hobby.

So close to 8000 total.
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