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Old 05-06-2013, 12:18 PM   #1101 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
Well there you go ... it's all confirmed now / initial odds post was accurate.
How 'bout that!
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:20 PM   #1102 (permalink)
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The odds are bs, people are wasting time and effort even thinking about them. Edit nvm lol
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:20 PM   #1103 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by 21taylor21-0911 View Post
so its better to get hobby vs jumbo?
With these odds, neither. Buy singles.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:20 PM   #1104 (permalink)
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I did you method with superfractor (non auto) NC.

67.4 of the superfractors are in jumbo cases since 4725 was the # of jumbo, same odds brent just posted.

Leaves 42.6 supers for hobby, and I get about 3185 or so cases of hobby.

So close to 8000 total.
Very good then. It looks like Jumbo was produced 4:3 or so to Hobby and this is what 7,900 - 8,300 combined cases will get you.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:21 PM   #1105 (permalink)
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4725 jumbo cases ... wow ...
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:21 PM   #1106 (permalink)
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Glad they made the blue sapphires in anon auto version, and fairly easy to get, I love the look of those.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:24 PM   #1107 (permalink)
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With these odds, neither. Buy singles.

starting to think the same, and I love bowman
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:25 PM   #1108 (permalink)
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still in shock at odds as that is way off from the 'expected', plus seeing inserts that used to be 1:1 in jumbo or even 1:2 going to 1:6 is killer for those that sold top 100 sets, master sets, or lots, those should be way hotter/higher than the minis, but will they? these odds kill value in ripping cases even more, plus with wrappers limited hurts those that break
those asking to sell sealed or open, and were on the fence, now you have your answer and might want to do it fast as not sure what impact this will have on case prices, but would think not very good
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:29 PM   #1109 (permalink)
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THE product has gone from a prospect refractor or better a box to every other
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:34 PM   #1110 (permalink)
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ya know, this thread gets started every time a new bowman product releases and there is always complaining about either the odds or the checklist. Then people start saying they will be staying away from boxes/cases and just buying singles......but really lets not kid ourselves, we all know that we say all that BS then when we start seeing breaks on here or see the product staring at us in the face at our LCS we always give into temptation and start busting boxes or even cases for some of us. So really this whole thread is just an absolutely waste with nonsense comments from people aside from the actual checklist which was the original intention of the thread.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:43 PM   #1111 (permalink)
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I'm still excited for the product, I love Bowman, and I'm glad that they made the blue sapphires slightly easy.

I'll still have fun with my cases, no matter what the odds say.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:46 PM   #1112 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajax1723 View Post
I'll still have fun with my cases, no matter what the odds say.
READ: "I'm cool with losing my @$$ because it's been a good year."

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Old 05-06-2013, 12:46 PM   #1113 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajax1723 View Post
I'm still excited for the product, I love Bowman, and I'm glad that they made the blue sapphires slightly easy.

I'll still have fun with my cases, no matter what the odds say.
I know, i love bowman as well. The odds dont really matter to me anyway considering a rare pull is still a rare pull. Everyone has the same odds so what does it matter?
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:47 PM   #1114 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slugger82685 View Post
ya know, this thread gets started every time a new bowman product releases and there is always complaining about either the odds or the checklist. Then people start saying they will be staying away from boxes/cases and just buying singles......but really lets not kid ourselves, we all know that we say all that BS then when we start seeing breaks on here or see the product staring at us in the face at our LCS we always give into temptation and start busting boxes or even cases for some of us. So really this whole thread is just an absolutely waste with nonsense comments from people aside from the actual checklist which was the original intention of the thread.
I completely agree with you man. Let's be honest -- the only thing that will keep me from busting boxes this week is the fact that my LCS is 15 minutes away in the opposite direction of my house. Yeah, I'm lazy.

I guess what gets everyone's panties all up in a wad (mine included) is that the odds and print runs get worse every year, even if only slightly.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:52 PM   #1115 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by slugger82685 View Post
I know, i love bowman as well. The odds dont really matter to me anyway considering a rare pull is still a rare pull. Everyone has the same odds so what does it matter?
Ugh. The sentiment that Topps takes advantage of. I know why you feel it ... I just wish you didn't.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:58 PM   #1116 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by calculusdork View Post
READ: "I'm cool with losing my @$$ because it's been a good year."

Oh you.

I ran the numbers conservatively, worst case for me is around 10% loss on my 4 cases after fees and such, calculating in averages and what I've already pre-sold.

I'm ok with that, I've been saving up for a reason.
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Old 05-06-2013, 12:58 PM   #1117 (permalink)
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regular hobby preordered at <$60/box should still break pretty well. i wouldn't touch jumbos at current price.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:08 PM   #1118 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 21taylor21-0911 View Post
starting to think the same, and I love bowman
Price of color autos and refractor autos will rise due to higher demand and tougher to pull.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:10 PM   #1119 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by 711 Cards View Post
Price of color autos and refractor autos will rise due to higher demand and tougher to pull.
I thought this as well, but that might not happen initially. Since most of the product is being opened and sold so fast ... the market will be flush all at once.

Over time, I think this will be true to the prospects that "survived" but not right out of the gate.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:18 PM   #1120 (permalink)
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The auto inserts and boxtoppers will likely make up for the perceived loss.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:23 PM   #1121 (permalink)
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B&B posted:

Sf 46683
PP 8640

Assuming SF is superfractor and PP is the plate...

assuming 4 plates.... shouldn't the SF odds be 34560? Unless there are no supers in retail and plates are in retail.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:23 PM   #1122 (permalink)
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Org pros 419
Red pros 1346
Sf pros 6728
Chr auto pros 7
Ref au 30
Blue au 99
Gold au 289
Org au 578

this makes no sense, not that it isn't what the packaging says but there is absolutely NO CHANCE that it is almost the same odds of prospect orange autos and prospect orange chrome ref especially once you add in the odds on the rookie orange autos. 56 players @ /25 each vs 110 @ /25 each. Take all the wrapper odds with a grain of salt until breaks start happening IMHO...
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:23 PM   #1123 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Loblaw View Post
The auto inserts and boxtoppers will likely make up for the perceived loss.
no, because those are so tough to pull
the avg box value is way way down since not even a refractor per box anymore

so have to disagree on this
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:24 PM   #1124 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajax1723 View Post
I'm still excited for the product, I love Bowman, and I'm glad that they made the blue sapphires slightly easy.

I'll still have fun with my cases, no matter what the odds say.
in small qty perhaps, but large qty could get boring lol
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:25 PM   #1125 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by slugger82685 View Post
ya know, this thread gets started every time a new bowman product releases and there is always complaining about either the odds or the checklist. Then people start saying they will be staying away from boxes/cases and just buying singles......but really lets not kid ourselves, we all know that we say all that BS then when we start seeing breaks on here or see the product staring at us in the face at our LCS we always give into temptation and start busting boxes or even cases for some of us. So really this whole thread is just an absolutely waste with nonsense comments from people aside from the actual checklist which was the original intention of the thread.
this is so true and why topps knows they can keep cranking presses, in all honesty they print more because we buy more
look how many preorder these days or do group breaks, those cases have to come from somewhere
even on weaker products throughout the year so many are buying in advance not knowing odds or checklists when that just makes things worse
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