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Old 05-06-2013, 01:26 PM   #1126 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ajax1723 View Post
Oh you.

I ran the numbers conservatively, worst case for me is around 10% loss on my 4 cases after fees and such, calculating in averages and what I've already pre-sold.

I'm ok with that, I've been saving up for a reason.
that is good to hear IF you don't mind doing all the days and weeks of work to lose money
don't gt me wrong that can happen and does happen easy in case breaking, but this was one (like series 1 used to be too lol) that you could count on

now what happens to sealed prices? I can't see jumbos staying where they are
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:29 PM   #1127 (permalink)
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I thought this as well, but that might not happen initially. Since most of the product is being opened and sold so fast ... the market will be flush all at once.

Over time, I think this will be true to the prospects that "survived" but not right out of the gate.
agree after initial flood
BUT the prospects that did not survive which is more than that will, will see decreased prices since not new, so that makes it tough

I have played the hold and wait game and yes there are some upsides, but for every 1 upside player I get 10 that had downsides to where it is a loss overall, rather just sell most at get-go...not saying that is best just saying from my experiences...sure there are some you should be able to hold or buy cheap and do well, in fact the cheaper ones have the biggest upside and smallest downsides
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:30 PM   #1128 (permalink)
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this is so true and why topps knows they can keep cranking presses, in all honesty they print more because we buy more
look how many preorder these days or do group breaks, those cases have to come from somewhere
even on weaker products throughout the year so many are buying in advance not knowing odds or checklists when that just makes things worse
It will only get worse when Sapir leaves this summer. Topps will be sold to Panini or end up being run by an inexperienced crew.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:32 PM   #1129 (permalink)
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Org pros 419
Red pros 1346
Sf pros 6728
Chr auto pros 7
Ref au 30
Blue au 99
Gold au 289
Org au 578

this makes no sense, not that it isn't what the packaging says but there is absolutely NO CHANCE that it is almost the same odds of prospect orange autos and prospect orange chrome ref especially once you add in the odds on the rookie orange autos. 56 players @ /25 each vs 110 @ /25 each. Take all the wrapper odds with a grain of salt until breaks start happening IMHO...

that is because of hobby and retail odds too, got to look at whole picture...
there are no chrome org ref autos in retail, yet there are orange refractors in retail, so that is why you see this
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:32 PM   #1130 (permalink)
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It will only get worse when Sapir leaves this summer. Topps will be sold to Panini or end up being run by an inexperienced crew.
Sapir is already gone, he said his farewell already
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:33 PM   #1131 (permalink)
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Sapir is already gone, he said his farewell already
Are we already seeing the results of that with 2013 bowman?
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:34 PM   #1132 (permalink)
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agree after initial flood
BUT the prospects that did not survive which is more than that will, will see decreased prices since not new, so that makes it tough

I have played the hold and wait game and yes there are some upsides, but for every 1 upside player I get 10 that had downsides to where it is a loss overall, rather just sell most at get-go...not saying that is best just saying from my experiences...sure there are some you should be able to hold or buy cheap and do well, in fact the cheaper ones have the biggest upside and smallest downsides
I agree bud ... I think it's a losing proposition to sit on everybody / simply that initial color prices won't be as strong as people suspect because the majority of this extremely high print run is being broken in the next five days.

So when you normally see a handful of Gold autos of a player on eBay after week one ... you'll now see a dozen or two / making them less valuable in the immediate. Over time, they'll be worth what they're worth / just not as much right away.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:35 PM   #1133 (permalink)
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that is because of hobby and retail odds too, got to look at whole picture...
there are no chrome org ref autos in retail, yet there are orange refractors in retail, so that is why you see this
fair enough, i just don't *think* things will shake out as dire as some here seem to be predicting, i could be wrong but if i am topps i would post worse odds and have people be happier with the breaks then post sparkling odds that people have no chance of hitting. i know maybe i give topps too much credit. regardless i am into my 5 Jumbo cases pretty cheap so i will probably still bust them!
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:41 PM   #1134 (permalink)
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I agree bud ... I think it's a losing proposition to sit on everybody / simply that initial color prices won't be as strong as people suspect because the majority of this extremely high print run is being broken in the next five days.

So when you normally see a handful of Gold autos of a player on eBay after week one ... you'll now see a dozen or two / making them less valuable in the immediate. Over time, they'll be worth what they're worth / just not as much right away.
BINGO! Exactly right!!
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:43 PM   #1135 (permalink)
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fair enough, i just don't *think* things will shake out as dire as some here seem to be predicting, i could be wrong but if i am topps i would post worse odds and have people be happier with the breaks then post sparkling odds that people have no chance of hitting. i know maybe i give topps too much credit. regardless i am into my 5 Jumbo cases pretty cheap so i will probably still bust them!

Topps could get into legal issues on incorrect odds but I can see your point
Having broke 500-700 cases of topps a year for a decade I can say the odds are usually always very close in my qty (except GQ this year which they were way off due to packing out errors)
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:47 PM   #1136 (permalink)
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I would bet my 2 cents that even with all these "horrible" odds and "horrible" print runs, we still see the standard 1-2 color autos per case JUST like every other Bowman product Topps has put out. Once again I see no reason to cry about it.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:51 PM   #1137 (permalink)
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I would bet my 2 cents that even with all these "horrible" odds and "horrible" print runs, we still see the standard 1-2 color autos per case JUST like every other Bowman product Topps has put out. Once again I see no reason to cry about it.
not sure people are crying about that

the biggest changes are the basic value items just like it was with series 1, tribute, GQ, etc

they make 1 per pack inserts go to 1:6 or refractor parallels that were 1:7 to 1:21 etc
those that wanted to buy master sets with inserts or refractor sets will have harder time and pay more
or those opening a box or two here and there will see less avg value

topps has done this all year with change the odds on the most basic stuff so that collectors or breakers or whoever are kept on their toes never knowing until it releases (not saying that is good/bad, just stating fact)
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:51 PM   #1138 (permalink)
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I would bet my 2 cents that even with all these "horrible" odds and "horrible" print runs, we still see the standard 1-2 color autos per case JUST like every other Bowman product Topps has put out. Once again I see no reason to cry about it.
You are correct Dave ... 13,720 color autos between RC's and Prospects and only 8,100 cases produced.

On a very rudimentary level 1.7 color autos per case. Will be closer to 2.2 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.1 color auto per Hobby case.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:53 PM   #1139 (permalink)
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You are correct Dave ... 13,720 color autos between RC's and Prospects and only 8,100 cases produced.

On a very rudimentary level 1.7 color autos per case. Will be closer to 2.2 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.1 color auto per Hobby case.
Problem with that is the ginormous auto checklist.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:55 PM   #1140 (permalink)
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Guys an important update in my mind forthcoming
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:57 PM   #1141 (permalink)
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I asked on the bowman FB page over the weekend: "will the blue wave packs contain Red Wave Cards again this year? and will the autographs be numbered out of 50 like like year or out of 100 like the BDPP packs seem to be?"

I received the following response about 2 hours ago:

"Bowman" For the Bowman Wrapper Redemption Program, there will be Red Wave parallels.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:57 PM   #1142 (permalink)
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Guys an important update in my mind forthcoming
HA ... Too funny.
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:57 PM   #1143 (permalink)
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You are correct Dave ... 13,720 color autos between RC's and Prospects and only 8,100 cases produced.

On a very rudimentary level 1.7 color autos per case. Will be closer to 2.2 color autos per Jumbo case and 1.1 color auto per Hobby case.
Mike I hope you don't feel like I'm fighting you along the way here. I just think that once people start opening product we are going to see the same yields per case that we normally see. That is just my opinion and I could be wrong. People keep reading all this stuff about higher print runs and horrible odds and they are freaking out thinking they are going to get a case worth of base stuff.

Brent does bring up very valid point of course about Topps messing with the odds and such. Brent have you read this whole thread? People are crying about it haha
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Old 05-06-2013, 01:58 PM   #1144 (permalink)
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I asked on the bowman FB page over the weekend: "will the blue wave packs contain Red Wave Cards again this year? and will the autographs be numbered out of 50 like like year or out of 100 like the BDPP packs seem to be?"

I received the following response about 2 hours ago:

"Bowman" For the Bowman Wrapper Redemption Program, there will be Red Wave parallels.
So would you say they answered both questions?
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:00 PM   #1145 (permalink)
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*edit to my previous post. Yes with the increased runs and bigger checklist, it will be harder to hit color of the top guys sure. I believe that may be the case, not denying that.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:00 PM   #1146 (permalink)
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guys - don't listen to the negative talk about opening your cases. open them and sell the hits on ebay so i can buy them, cheap.

thanks and enjoy your day off tomorrow!
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:00 PM   #1147 (permalink)
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Mike I hope you don't feel like I'm fighting you along the way here. I just think that once people start opening product we are going to see the same yields per case that we normally see. That is just my opinion and I could be wrong. People keep reading all this stuff about higher print runs and horrible odds and they are freaking out thinking they are going to get a case worth of base stuff.

Brent does bring up very valid point of course about Topps messing with the odds and such. Brent have you read this whole thread? People are crying about it haha
Numbers are numbers though, Dave. If these are the correct odds (which sounds like they are) color is going to be very few and far between in this product, according to the numbers.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:01 PM   #1148 (permalink)
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So would you say they answered both questions?
nope so i reasked just that ?
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:04 PM   #1149 (permalink)
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Mike I hope you don't feel like I'm fighting you along the way here. I just think that once people start opening product we are going to see the same yields per case that we normally see. That is just my opinion and I could be wrong. People keep reading all this stuff about higher print runs and horrible odds and they are freaking out thinking they are going to get a case worth of base stuff.

Brent does bring up very valid point of course about Topps messing with the odds and such. Brent have you read this whole thread? People are crying about it haha
I kind of agree with the freaking out though Dave. I think people have reason to be irritated, upset (if they are). I know you feel like many that I'm blowing this out of proportion to a certain extent, but I urge you to consider the numbers don't lie.

When a Buxton auto falls one out of every five hobby cases, and there are 2,100 of them available, don't you think that's a little out of whack? Imagine the amount of base, inserts, just normal value items that have to be printed to amass such a ratio.

I wish so very much you and others would not open their cases and just parse them out, which will greatly help the long-term and short-term value of this product / but I know that's not gonna happen. I really, really, really do feel that when everyone starts to see what their pulling, and what the completed auctions look like on eBay, there will be significant losses / and more importantly significant time lost.

My mind keeps telling me Topps is to blame but if the stance is "I'm gonna open them anyway", then it's Topps. We're to blame for seeing this, and still decided to accept it.

I've said and "preached" all I can on this board about it, and I'm still the loon ... so be it.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:04 PM   #1150 (permalink)
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dont forget retail. a bunch of stuff prbably got shifted over there.
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