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Old 05-06-2013, 02:04 PM   #1151 (permalink)
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nope so i reasked just that ?
I think they did ...
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:05 PM   #1152 (permalink)
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Numbers are numbers though, Dave. If these are the correct odds (which sounds like they are) color is going to be very few and far between in this product, according to the numbers.
Chris do you really think a person is not going to get the standard 1-2 color autos per case like every other Bowman Product? Except maybe 2010 Bowman Chrome
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:10 PM   #1153 (permalink)
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Chris do you really think a person is not going to get the standard 1-2 color autos per case like every other Bowman Product? Except maybe 2010 Bowman Chrome
I am numbers guy, so if the odds are as stated, no.

The numbers say a blue prospect auto every other hobby box and a blue prospect auto roughly per jumbo box. RC color autos are almost impossible in either jumbo or hobby.

Non auto color is even worse this year.

The fact that there are more jumbo than hobby, means something is out of whack. That is almost never the case.

Gonna be a buyer's market when the market floods here IMO.

I still stand by my theory that the top guys will do well no matter how many there is in the chrome print run. Buxton chrome autos would seem to be plentiful, so if you want to sell them to me PM me!
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:15 PM   #1154 (permalink)
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I am numbers guy, so if the odds are as stated, no.

The numbers say a blue prospect auto every other hobby box and a blue prospect auto roughly per jumbo box. RC color autos are almost impossible in either jumbo or hobby.

Non auto color is even worse this year.

The fact that there are more jumbo than hobby, means something is out of whack. That is almost never the case.

Gonna be a buyer's market when the market floods here IMO.

I still stand by my theory that the top guys will do well no matter how many there is in the chrome print run. Buxton chrome autos would seem to be plentiful, so if you want to sell them to me PM me!
the next couple days will be interesting
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:18 PM   #1155 (permalink)
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anyone know if there are red wave cards in the blue wave packs for 2013 bowman?
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:19 PM   #1156 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
I am numbers guy, so if the odds are as stated, no.

The numbers say a blue prospect auto every other hobby box and a blue prospect auto roughly per jumbo box. RC color autos are almost impossible in either jumbo or hobby.

Non auto color is even worse this year.

The fact that there are more jumbo than hobby, means something is out of whack. That is almost never the case.

Gonna be a buyer's market when the market floods here IMO.

I still stand by my theory that the top guys will do well no matter how many there is in the chrome print run. Buxton chrome autos would seem to be plentiful, so if you want to sell them to me PM me!
with 70-80 cases worth of group breaks and tons more individual breaks we will get a pretty good idea of where things will shake out soon enough!! gl to all busting and have fun!!
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:19 PM   #1157 (permalink)
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anyone know if there are red wave cards in the blue wave packs for 2013 bowman?
I asked on the bowman FB page over the weekend: "will the blue wave packs contain Red Wave Cards again this year? and will the autographs be numbered out of 50 like like year or out of 100 like the BDPP packs seem to be?"

I received the following response about 2 hours ago:

"Bowman" For the Bowman Wrapper Redemption Program, there will be Red Wave parallels.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:20 PM   #1158 (permalink)
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the next couple days will be interesting
I agree, gonna be doing some buying!

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Originally Posted by raidersfan1983 View Post
with 70-80 cases worth of group breaks and tons more individual breaks we will get a pretty good idea of where things will shake out soon enough!! gl to all busting and have fun!!
Yep, we will know soon enough.

To quote Dumb and Dumber, even at one in a million, you are telling me there is a chance!
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:24 PM   #1159 (permalink)
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Wow just catching up on this thread.

Seeing the odds it looks pretty nasty....

I busted 5 cases of Jumbo for 2012 bowman and averaged 4 color and 6 - 8 base refractor autos per case. Is Topps producing 4x the amount this go around? Thats the only way I can see the odds of getting a color auto at 1 per case...
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:25 PM   #1160 (permalink)
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I asked on the bowman FB page over the weekend: "will the blue wave packs contain Red Wave Cards again this year? and will the autographs be numbered out of 50 like like year or out of 100 like the BDPP packs seem to be?"

I received the following response about 2 hours ago:

"Bowman" For the Bowman Wrapper Redemption Program, there will be Red Wave parallels.
I'm pretty sure if you dig in one of the other threads you can see Alex Meyer signing his Blue Wave auto's. So I'd say they are on card again for this set. But no idea if its everybody or what the numbering is.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:26 PM   #1161 (permalink)
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I'm pretty sure if you dig in one of the other threads you can see Alex Meyer signing his Blue Wave auto's. So I'd say they are on card again for this set. But no idea if its everybody or what the numbering is.
i asked about numbering and the players who signed so if u are on FB just like or inquire on the bowman page under my post as well "Bryan Weinstein"
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:27 PM   #1162 (permalink)
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I'm pretty sure if you dig in one of the other threads you can see Alex Meyer signing his Blue Wave auto's. So I'd say they are on card again for this set. But no idea if its everybody or what the numbering is.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:27 PM   #1163 (permalink)
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the production is up because we keep ordering
again, that is how topps does it
so topps may be 'to blame' but so are we as we keep prebuying so many cases (especially group breakers....that is huge reason for increase I was told by 2 topps folks regarding production)
breakers did not like jumbos limited so they are not very limited at all, lol
they are printing it because we are buying it...when (if) it slows down, production will do, it is like anything else, but right now even sad products are being bought to do group breaks, and when production goes up, value even on the basic items does down
happens, but it will cycle one day soon, always has
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:29 PM   #1164 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by brentandbecca View Post
the production is up because we keep ordering
again, that is how topps does it
so topps may be 'to blame' but so are we as we keep prebuying so many cases (especially group breakers....that is huge reason for increase I was told by 2 topps folks regarding production)
breakers did not like jumbos limited so they are not very limited at all, lol
they are printing it because we are buying it...when (if) it slows down, production will do, it is like anything else, but right now even sad products are being bought to do group breaks, and when production goes up, value even on the basic items does down
happens, but it will cycle one day soon, always has
I always knew all those group breakers were scum.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:30 PM   #1165 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by brentandbecca View Post
the production is up because we keep ordering
again, that is how topps does it
so topps may be 'to blame' but so are we as we keep prebuying so many cases (especially group breakers....that is huge reason for increase I was told by 2 topps folks regarding production)
breakers did not like jumbos limited so they are not very limited at all, lol
they are printing it because we are buying it...when (if) it slows down, production will do, it is like anything else, but right now even sad products are being bought to do group breaks, and when production goes up, value even on the basic items does down
happens, but it will cycle one day soon, always has
in other words we should go and blame houdini for all the problems, i like that idea
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:30 PM   #1166 (permalink)
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anyone know if there are red wave cards in the blue wave packs for 2013 bowman?
yes topps said on twitter and early info there are autos and red waves
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:32 PM   #1167 (permalink)
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in other words we should go and blame houdini for all the problems, i like that idea
lol
but it is not just group breakers

when everyone sees what prices bowman goes up to every year, everyone wants a piece of that, they want to preorder than sell sealed later, so more and more orders come in

but yes grp breaking is increasing production of most releases it appears
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:33 PM   #1168 (permalink)
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no, let's just agree to disagree there and blame houdini ok?
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:35 PM   #1169 (permalink)
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I just kind of looked at total prospect/rookie autos based on the odds from 2013, 12, and 11 JUMBO only - not sure if 2011 is totally correct as it is from old posts
(all numbers per case roughly)

**sorry for difficulty, am at work and tried to space it out....maybe some can clean it up

Prospect 2013 2012 2011
Base 13.7 12.8 10.7
Refractor 3.2 4 3.2
Blue 0.97 1.25 0.95
Gold 0.33 0.42 0.31
Orange 0.17 0.21 0.16
Purple 0.09 0.12 N/A
Super .007 .008 .007
Plates .03 .05 ???

Total 18.55 18.89 15.33


Rookie 2013 2012 2011
Base 1.81 2.13 5.65
Refractor 079 0.98 1.68
Blue 0.51 0.49 0.84
Gold 0.10 0.13 0.16
Orange 0.05 0.07
Red .011 .013
Super .002 .002 .003
Plates .011 .013 .003

Total 3.29 3.83 8.34

2013 Total = 21.83 / case (is my math off, others have mentioned this discrepancy vs. 24, but I did not include other autos)

2012 Total = 22.72 /case

2011 Total = 23.67 /case

I did not do 2011/2012 so I would have to rely on the knowledge here, but I also found a thread from 2012 where everyone was down about the odds, so the question is = How did you do last year???

Obviously 2011 had bigger rookie checklist and this year has a larger checklist by a few than last year, but to me it looks like it won't be 'extremely different' than what was obtained last year (although color takes a hit)

Non auto refractors/color appears to have taken the biggest hit.

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Old 05-06-2013, 02:35 PM   #1170 (permalink)
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no, let's just agree to disagree there and blame houdini ok?
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:36 PM   #1171 (permalink)
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I still believe these are just Blue Refractor Autos.

But probably just another thing I am going to be wrong about.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:48 PM   #1172 (permalink)
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another factor in all this is don't forget that DIRECT cost on jumbos increased by $100 this year
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:49 PM   #1173 (permalink)
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I still believe these are just Blue Refractor Autos.

But probably just another thing I am going to be wrong about.
Only way that's base blue is if they totally changed the color of Blue Refractors. So will know for sure in a few days.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:50 PM   #1174 (permalink)
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another factor in all this is don't forget that DIRECT cost on jumbos increased by $100 this year
which makes this whole thing even more egregious. it didn't cost topps any more to make it - so if they are raising the price simply b/c it's a hot item and they want to reap the profits, that's fine. but don't pump up the presses on top of that - do at least a little allocating for the good of the hobby.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:55 PM   #1175 (permalink)
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You can't blame people for pre ordering as much as possible when the past releases they have been limited in what they could get. There is too much power with the manufacturer given they can require people to commit to buying a product 9 months before anybody knows the value of that product. When the product comes out and it is watered down, they just de valued their own brand. Its on them, not the breakers, not houdini, not the kid who started 45 threads and lied about finding retail.
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