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Old 05-06-2013, 02:55 PM   #1176 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by 711 Cards View Post
You can't blame people for pre ordering as much as possible when the past releases they have been limited in what they could get. There is too much power with the manufacturer given they can require people to commit to buying a product 9 months before anybody knows the value of that product. When the product comes out and it is watered down, they just de valued their own brand. Its on them, not the breakers, not houdini, not the kid who started 45 threads and lied about finding retail.
I blame boomo.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:55 PM   #1177 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by stormshadow815 View Post
Only way that's base blue is if they totally changed the color of Blue Refractors. So will know for sure in a few days.
They are doing a big sapphire push this year - not sure if it replaces blue but thats what those cards look like.
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Old 05-06-2013, 02:56 PM   #1178 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I kind of agree with the freaking out though Dave. I think people have reason to be irritated, upset (if they are). I know you feel like many that I'm blowing this out of proportion to a certain extent, but I urge you to consider the numbers don't lie.

When a Buxton auto falls one out of every five hobby cases, and there are 2,100 of them available, don't you think that's a little out of whack? Imagine the amount of base, inserts, just normal value items that have to be printed to amass such a ratio.

I wish so very much you and others would not open their cases and just parse them out, which will greatly help the long-term and short-term value of this product / but I know that's not gonna happen. I really, really, really do feel that when everyone starts to see what their pulling, and what the completed auctions look like on eBay, there will be significant losses / and more importantly significant time lost.

My mind keeps telling me Topps is to blame but if the stance is "I'm gonna open them anyway", then it's Topps. We're to blame for seeing this, and still decided to accept it.

I've said and "preached" all I can on this board about it, and I'm still the loon ... so be it.
mike - i don't think you are a loon - i am actually kind of agreeing with it...
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:05 PM   #1179 (permalink)
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i was just looking back at old odds

chrome prospect refractors
2010 1:5
2011 1:6
2012 1:9
2013 1:21

blue ref
2010 1:13
2011 1:18
2012 1:17
2013 1:42

gold ref
2010 1:64
2011 1:88
2012 1:83
2013 1:209

HELLO!

some autos....
blue ref auto
2010 1:80 pros 1:93 rc
2011 1:101 pros 1:114 rc
2012 1:77 pros 1:197 rc
2013 1:99 pros 1:187 rc

gold auto
2010 1:240 pros 1:465 rc
2011 1:312 pros 1:587 rc
2012 1:230 pros 1:718 rc
2013 1:289 pros 1:934 rc

and then you should see the SF 1/1 auto odds, lol

and this year has biggest checklist ever (but an overall strong/deep one)
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:13 PM   #1180 (permalink)
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so this year 42 prospect autos vs 38 last year, and 14 rookies vs 12 last year.

So about 30% production increase by comparison it seems
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:14 PM   #1181 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by brentandbecca View Post
i was just looking back at old odds

chrome prospect refractors
2010 1:5
2011 1:6
2012 1:9
2013 1:21

blue ref
2010 1:13
2011 1:18
2012 1:17
2013 1:42

gold ref
2010 1:64
2011 1:88
2012 1:83
2013 1:209

HELLO!

some autos....
blue ref auto
2010 1:80 pros 1:93 rc
2011 1:101 pros 1:114 rc
2012 1:77 pros 1:197 rc
2013 1:99 pros 1:187 rc

gold auto
2010 1:240 pros 1:465 rc
2011 1:312 pros 1:587 rc
2012 1:230 pros 1:718 rc
2013 1:289 pros 1:934 rc

and then you should see the SF 1/1 auto odds, lol

and this year has biggest checklist ever (but an overall strong/deep one)
as i look at this i am not as disturbed at the color auto odds - it's the non-auto color that is really bad. but... speaking for myself, i never make a lot of those anyway.
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:20 PM   #1182 (permalink)
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The base refractors are taking a hit because of the addition of Mini Chrome and its refractors. At least that's how I see it.
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:23 PM   #1183 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by stormshadow815 View Post
The base refractors are taking a hit because of the addition of Mini Chrome and its refractors. At least that's how I see it.
which actually probably adds value to them now plus the added value of the mini's...
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:30 PM   #1184 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by brentandbecca View Post
here are all the odds for jumbo (note also the top 100 inserts are no longer 1 per jumbo pack, ought oh!)
also excuse my short-hand

Rc auto 53
Ref 122
Blue 187
Gold 934
....
I ran them through my packoddsamulator machine and got this:

2013 Bowman Baseball pre-release Pack odds - UNCONFIRMED | Packodds.com


If you just want the sheet it's here.



As for the great debate, I think some people are being realistic and some are being hopeful. I'm seeing the gambler's fallacy a lot.
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:33 PM   #1185 (permalink)
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Have you started cooking your crow yet festus? For your sake, I hope it tastes like chicken.
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:35 PM   #1186 (permalink)
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I'm wondering how much value the Chrome Minis and Black Refs will add compared to the value lost by worse odds on Non-Auto stuff. You've gotta think 48-50 extra refractors will put a nice dent in the few that were taken from "an average case".

Edit, it'll be more like 51-54 extra refractors if you add in the Blue Minis
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:47 PM   #1187 (permalink)
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These just posted.

Retail Odds
International SP 1:8
Blue Bordered 1:34
Orange Bordered 1:67
Silver Ice 1:24
Topps 100 1:12
Topps 100 Parallels 1:372
Challange Codes 1:6
Mini Chrome Refractor 1:6
Mini Chrome Refractor Parallels 1:98
Best Bowman Players of All time 1:24
Best Bowman Platyer Autos 1:148,649
Chrome Prospect Refractor 1:67
Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 1:61
Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor 1:134
chrome Prospect Gold Refractor 1:670
Chrome Prospect Orange Refractor 1:1,341
Social Media Graph 1:19,404
Prospect Retail Auto 1:35
Prospect Retail Auto Blue Border 1:117
Prospect Retail Auto Orange Border 1:230
Prospect Retail Auto Red Border 1:87,515
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:51 PM   #1188 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XL5 View Post
I ran them through my packoddsamulator machine and got this:

2013 Bowman Baseball pre-release Pack odds - UNCONFIRMED | Packodds.com


If you just want the sheet it's here.



As for the great debate, I think some people are being realistic and some are being hopeful. I'm seeing the gambler's fallacy a lot.
assuming this is all accurate (and i love the set-up BTW) i get a rough count of about 2.3 blue or better per case which doesn't sound horrid... and also .48 bonus autos per case
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Last edited by raidersfan1983; 05-06-2013 at 03:54 PM.
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:55 PM   #1189 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XL5 View Post
I ran them through my packoddsamulator machine and got this:

2013 Bowman Baseball pre-release Pack odds - UNCONFIRMED | Packodds.com


If you just want the sheet it's here.



As for the great debate, I think some people are being realistic and some are being hopeful. I'm seeing the gambler's fallacy a lot.
Very cool...

Do you have this completed for hobby boxes/cases as well?
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:56 PM   #1190 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by raidersfan1983 View Post
assuming this is all accurate (and i love the set-up BTW) i get a rough count of about 2.3 blue or better per case which doesn't sound horrid... and also .48 bonus autos per case
The problem with the 2.3 per case, is the huge auto checklist.

When your two color autos are blue Patrick Wisdom and blue Paco Rodriguez, that's not a very good break.

Non-auto color odds are absolutely terrible.
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:56 PM   #1191 (permalink)
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What is the "Social Media Graph"? Did I ask that already?
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Old 05-06-2013, 03:59 PM   #1192 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XL5 View Post
I ran them through my packoddsamulator machine and got this:

2013 Bowman Baseball pre-release Pack odds - UNCONFIRMED | Packodds.com


If you just want the sheet it's here.



As for the great debate, I think some people are being realistic and some are being hopeful. I'm seeing the gambler's fallacy a lot.
This is a high school math teacher's dream.

Thanks.
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Old 05-06-2013, 04:00 PM   #1193 (permalink)
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I'm still looking forward to my cases. I will let everyone know how I do when I am done. I will either serve or be served crow myself. I can handle it.
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Old 05-06-2013, 04:00 PM   #1194 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bigsmoot2 View Post
The problem with the 2.3 per case, is the huge auto checklist.

When your two color autos are blue Patrick Wisdom and blue Paco Rodriguez, that's not a very good break.

Non-auto color odds are absolutely terrible.
That, and the price of jumbo cases. At $1,300+ plus, even if you get fairly lucky and hit a blue Hanson, a blue Eaton, a Carson Kelly UA auto, and a solid couple of base autos like Correa and Walker, you're still toast.
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Old 05-06-2013, 04:13 PM   #1195 (permalink)
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That, and the price of jumbo cases. At $1,300+ plus, even if you get fairly lucky and hit a blue Hanson, a blue Eaton, a Carson Kelly UA auto, and a solid couple of base autos like Correa and Walker, you're still toast.
I agree 1000%, This is why I buy singles and crack nothing. I know some people will hit "monsters" but 95% of the people busting will take significant (50%?) loses.
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Old 05-06-2013, 04:23 PM   #1196 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by gr33d View Post
Very cool...

Do you have this completed for hobby boxes/cases as well?
Not yet, don't have the hobby odds. I pick mine up Wednesday evening unless someone wants to post them here sooner.
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Old 05-06-2013, 04:24 PM   #1197 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Andrew Jones View Post
That, and the price of jumbo cases. At $1,300+ plus, even if you get fairly lucky and hit a blue Hanson, a blue Eaton, a Carson Kelly UA auto, and a solid couple of base autos like Correa and Walker, you're still toast.
But if you are in say under $1000 or in some cases under $900 then u will be ok
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Old 05-06-2013, 04:24 PM   #1198 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by XL5 View Post
Not yet, don't have the hobby odds. I pick mine up Wednesday evening unless someone wants to post them here sooner.
They were already posted a few pages back.
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Old 05-06-2013, 04:30 PM   #1199 (permalink)
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They were already posted a few pages back.
Unless I missed it, they weren't the full odds. I used brentandbecca's post for HTA, not the "unknown source" one.

I like a scan of the pack for confirmed odds.
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Old 05-06-2013, 04:35 PM   #1200 (permalink)
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Some cool news about the Social Media Graphs retail insert - they're Chrome Refractor Autos which include not only the player's sig, but his Twitter handle as well.
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