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Old 08-10-2007, 12:42 PM   #26 (permalink)
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jeb,
you are not alone. i will be fighting the ripping demons myself on this one.
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Old 08-10-2007, 12:55 PM   #27 (permalink)
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I didn't situate my money properly beforehand, so all I am getting is two boxes.

Thing is, I got them so cheap that I don't know if I should rip or flip. I could flip right now and more than double my money, if not triple. Then again, I got these boxes so cheap that it doesn't matter what auto I get, I can sell it for about what I paid for the box.

I think I am going to bust. For what I paid, you kind of have to.
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Old 08-10-2007, 01:26 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Let me just say this to everyone - If you planned to rip them, then rip them. Even if you get marginal cases, you'll still break even at worst. If you planned on ripping them and you end up selling them instead, you'll just wonder what all was in there and if you find out you sold a huge auto, you'll be kicking yourself for years.

After all, what are you going to do with the profits if you do sell them? You'll probably end up ripping something else. From a ripping standpoint, this will be the most fun you can have and if you miss out on it, shame on you.

I have 4 cases. I'm ripping every single one of them. I hope my local shops get it a day early, because I'll clear out every single shop in my area if they do.
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Old 08-10-2007, 02:23 PM   #29 (permalink)
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i know this is still a money maker even if you rip. i am thinking more about all the time and energy to rip, sort, list, package, post office etc.... if you bought 10 cases you can make 2000 for 1 hours worth of work or 2000 for 40 hours.

with the odds stated earlier in 10 cases you should get 2 gold 1 orange and no guarantee of a red,plate or super. even if you are lucky enough to hit a chamberlain or lincecum how much do you think a orange of them would be worth?
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Old 08-10-2007, 02:30 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Figure a Lincecum or Joba Gold or Orange would pull in $1K + easy. Especially if you list the first few days when the base autos are higher.
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Old 08-10-2007, 05:33 PM   #31 (permalink)
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I think with either of those guys your getting a G no matter when you list. Such a low number of them total and you will have a lot of them not get busted because of people holding cases and some people will send them in for grading.
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Old 08-10-2007, 05:38 PM   #32 (permalink)
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I have decided I am going to go ahead and rip everything I get (10 cases from Blowout) plus probably 10-15 boxes from my local shop, I will be selling 20 card prospect lots, and then autos and parallels as singles.
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Old 08-10-2007, 08:29 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danimal View Post
I will be selling 20 card prospect lots,
See you on the 'Bay.
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Old 08-10-2007, 08:49 PM   #34 (permalink)
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"It's the mosttt wonderful time of the yearrrrr!!!"
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Old 08-10-2007, 09:52 PM   #35 (permalink)
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posted this on another thread

joba tonight 2 innings 0 hits 0 runs 0 walks 4 ks

could be more $$$$$ for the chrome busters
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Old 08-10-2007, 11:58 PM   #36 (permalink)
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I don't want to be a wet blanket, but I've had my a$$ handed to me all summer with products that were money last year.

After making a $3300 profit on 6 cases of Topps Chrome Baseball last year, I never expected to be in the hole -$700 this year.

I did the math on Bowman Chrome, it doesn't add up to profit for ripping. Someone tell me what I'm missing. I'm working off 6 cases.

7 Base Sets x $50 each (if I'm lucky) = $350
360 Refractors x $2 each = $720
20 Count Prospects x $12 each = $1320
72 Autographs x $15 each = $1080
2 A-Rod Set x $15 each = $30

That comes out to $3500. Even if you got it at factory cost its a break-even proposition. How are you guys going to turn a profit on this? I have six cases and I'm probably going to send them to the closet and wait for them to heat up like they always seem to do.
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Old 08-11-2007, 12:39 AM   #37 (permalink)
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It's really hard to do but I feel you will get the most return ...just forget you got them and BAM...you PROBABLY double your money with ease IF you WAIT....
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Old 08-11-2007, 12:50 AM   #38 (permalink)
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KD, I think you are low on the parallels and auto per piece prices. You have to remember that some of those numbered prospect parallels can get crazy prices.
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Old 08-11-2007, 06:27 AM   #39 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KaraandMelliesDaddy View Post
I don't want to be a wet blanket, but I've had my a$$ handed to me all summer with products that were money last year.

After making a $3300 profit on 6 cases of Topps Chrome Baseball last year, I never expected to be in the hole -$700 this year.

I did the math on Bowman Chrome, it doesn't add up to profit for ripping. Someone tell me what I'm missing. I'm working off 6 cases.

7 Base Sets x $50 each (if I'm lucky) = $350
360 Refractors x $2 each = $720
20 Count Prospects x $12 each = $1320
72 Autographs x $15 each = $1080
2 A-Rod Set x $15 each = $30

That comes out to $3500. Even if you got it at factory cost its a break-even proposition. How are you guys going to turn a profit on this? I have six cases and I'm probably going to send them to the closet and wait for them to heat up like they always seem to do.
Thank K&MD,

I thought I was the only one here who thought you couldn't make money by ripping.

My calc's for an "AVERAGE" case break without hitting a "BIG Auto or Parallel"

1 330 card Master set 75.00
2 110 card Prospect sets @ $50/ea 100.00
48 Veteran Refractors 140.00
36 Refractors @ 1.50
6 X-fractors @ 3.00
4 Blue @ 7.50
1 Gold @ 15.00
1 Orange @ 20.00
12 Prospect Refractors 80.00
36 Refractors @ 3.00
6 X-fractors @ 7.50
4 Blue @ 10.00
1 Gold @ 20.00
12 Prospect Autos 160.00
9 Base @ 10.00
2 Refractors @ 20.00
1 X-fractors @ 30.00
A-Rod Road to 500 25.00

Total sales $580.00
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Old 08-11-2007, 07:50 AM   #40 (permalink)
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If you open 6 cases, you won't have only 2 Arod sets. You may have to make a few trades to get to 5, but you will get there. $15 might be a little low for them too, regardless of how many people are breaking.

You won't get $50 for the base set by the way either....it may come out at $50, but it won't stay there.

I agree with otmack on you are low on the auto's and parallel's.
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Old 08-11-2007, 07:56 AM   #41 (permalink)
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Here is my Chrome Math - for 6 cases ($4350 Breakeven point).

Base Sets 1-220 - 10 sets x $40 = $400 ( I may just sell all of my base 1-220 in one huge unsorted lot - DiceK and all - I did this last year and sold the entire lot for $620)

20 card Prospect Lots - 110 x $15 = $1650 (the folks on beckett have a list of 48 players that are tearing up the minors -so this may be low at $15 per lot, since more "prospectors" will have more information)

Parallels - 180 x $3 (some of the prospects xfractors and blue refs will go for $40-$50 - so $3 each may be low)= $540

AROD 500 - I am selling all 72 packs unopened in one lot (these big lots get between $2-$3 per pack on ebay) = $200

Autos 72 x $25 = $1800 (I will have all my autos listed within the 1st 5 days of release so $25 should be a very conservative estimate with Golds, Blue, Xfractors and Refractors, expecially considering there are 4 cards that should be $100+ - Joba, Lincecum, Pence, FMart - plus never count out Samardzija no one is talking about him and his base tristar is selling for $3 which is good for a base minor league card and he has 2 huge fan bases - Notre Dame Fan and Cub Fan so I can see this one going for $100 for at least the 1st week or so.)

That brings the total to $4590.
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Old 08-11-2007, 08:32 AM   #42 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danimal View Post
Here is my Chrome Math - for 6 cases ($4350 Breakeven point).

Base Sets 1-220 - 10 sets x $40 = $400 ( I may just sell all of my base 1-220 in one huge unsorted lot - DiceK and all - I did this last year and sold the entire lot for $620)

20 card Prospect Lots - 110 x $15 = $1650 (the folks on beckett have a list of 48 players that are tearing up the minors -so this may be low at $15 per lot, since more "prospectors" will have more information)

Parallels - 180 x $3 (some of the prospects xfractors and blue refs will go for $40-$50 - so $3 each may be low)= $540

AROD 500 - I am selling all 72 packs unopened in one lot (these big lots get between $2-$3 per pack on ebay) = $200

Autos 72 x $25 = $1800 (I will have all my autos listed within the 1st 5 days of release so $25 should be a very conservative estimate with Golds, Blue, Xfractors and Refractors, expecially considering there are 4 cards that should be $100+ - Joba, Lincecum, Pence, FMart - plus never count out Samardzija no one is talking about him and his base tristar is selling for $3 which is good for a base minor league card and he has 2 huge fan bases - Notre Dame Fan and Cub Fan so I can see this one going for $100 for at least the 1st week or so.)

That brings the total to $4590.
OK. So I see your breakdown and many others on here and the other sitebut you are all not talking about one BIG thing.....
LISTING FEES,SELLING FEES,PAYPAL FEES.
I have done the break and sell with BC and BDP for years but I do not like how everyone makes it seem so easy to make money. If you sell $4590 worht of cards on ebay and use paypal you are going to be out probably close to $700 in listing,ending and paypal fees at the least.
That is a huge chunk of profit. That is what slows me on busting and the fact that I don't have much time to sort with 2 kids and a wife Deployed right night.
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Old 08-11-2007, 09:59 AM   #43 (permalink)
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I can make this move, which is probably the most fun. I'm in on six cases. I can sell five at current prices and that covers more than what I paid for six. Then I have one case where I can rip and not worry about what happens. Or I can flip the cases and make $1000-1200 at current prices.

I usually sit on this product for a while, but I'm trying to go back to completely hockey.

I dunno, I guess i have 1 1/2 weeks to figure it out. It releases on 8/22 from what I hear. Maybe by then the cases will be at $1000+ and flipping will be a no-brainer.
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Old 08-11-2007, 10:30 AM   #44 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KaraandMelliesDaddy View Post
I usually sit on this product for a while, but I'm trying to go back to completely hockey.
The fun thing is that with the latest developments in the Topps/UD merger deal, if you take Topps at its word, they WANT to negotiate a UD merger.

So the fun thing previously mentioned is that if things go the way Topps has been saying, you can both get back into hockey completely AND do your rip-and-flip on Bowman Chrome.

For me, that'd be the *ONLY* positive of the UD/Topps merger.
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Old 08-11-2007, 11:05 AM   #45 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit View Post
The fun thing is that with the latest developments in the Topps/UD merger deal, if you take Topps at its word, they WANT to negotiate a UD merger.

So the fun thing previously mentioned is that if things go the way Topps has been saying, you can both get back into hockey completely AND do your rip-and-flip on Bowman Chrome.

For me, that'd be the *ONLY* positive of the UD/Topps merger.
Rabbit, if you believe Topps, I have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn, NRMT-MT, should grade a PSA 8.

I work in anti-trust, so I've had a glimpse of the foolishness involved with this. It looks like UD initially wanted to blow up the Eisner deal and now they are just in a pissing contest with each other.

My guess is if UD buys Topps, Bowman goes away for good. I doubt MLB will allow the Bowman license to be transferred.
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Old 08-11-2007, 11:09 AM   #46 (permalink)
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Gentleman....you are all way low on the auto cards. This is one of the best auto checklist as far as potential return I have ever seen. You will get 12 of these guys per case and 4 of the 12 will likely be a #d auto which drives up the price per. I get an average of close to $45 per auot when you figure in a premium for the #d autos. It only takes one or 2 Pence/Joba/Lincecum cards to drive up the average per card very quick.

The Big Hits (7)
BC221 Fernando Martinez New York Mets
Top prospect but hitting only .271 in AA. Been hurt since June. Should still be a $99 card out of the gate. Back from injury and doing well. Still only 18 but need more power.

BC227 Jeff Samardzija Chicago Cubs
Getting shelled in A ball giving up more than 1 hit per inning. Will still be a $75 card due to the Norte Dame / Cub fans who don?¢??t care. He should have gone with football.

BC236 Joba Chamberlain New York Yankees
Pitching lights out. Just promoted to AAA. Will be the hottest card in the set going for at least $175 out of the gate. If he does well in the show he will be a $200 card.

BC238 Tim Lincecum San Francisco Giants
Starting to pitch well for the Giants after a stretch of bad outings in June. His other UD RCs are $175 so Chrome should yield this price as well.

BC240 Greg Reynolds Colorado Rockies
Was hurt to start but has a 1.42 ERA in AA ball. He will up for the Rockies by August and could be a $75 card.

BC248 Hunter Pence Houston Astros
Out for a month killing is ROY chances.. This isn't his first RC so I have no idea what his cards will demand. My guess it will be a $80 card.

BC249 Dellin Betances New York Yankees
Yankee high school prospect from the Bronx. His SOTF cards were $75 so I think this will be at least a $100 card.



Nice Hits (7)
BC230 Luke Hochevar Kansas City Royals
Just called up to AAA holding his own. Will likely get a call up in September. Should be $50 out of the gate.

BC254 Cedric Hunter San Diego Padres
Only 19 and one of the top prospects for SD. Should be at least $30. Went 5 for 5 the other night which should help his stock next week.

BC232 Kevin Mulvey New York Mets
Mets 2nd round pick in 2006. A couple of rough outings this month in AA. Should be a $40 card.

BC246 Young Il Jung Angels
Signed for a $1MM bonus. Pitching in Korea this year. International buyers should make this a $40 card.

BC253 Brad Lincoln Pittsburgh Pirates
Hurt this year. Long awaited auto for former #3 overall pick. Potential if he recovers should make this a $30 card.


BC244 Henry Sosa San Francisco Giants
Was unhittable in low A ball, but adjusting to high A. Still should sell for $30 as he has been hot this year. Fixture on the Prospect Hot Sheet each week. Should get a start in September.

BC251 Zach Mcallister New York Yankees
2006 draft pick from the Yankees will sell OK because of the team. Hot Sheet appearance this week will drive up prices. Actually doing better than Betances. $25 card.


Could Sell Well (11)

These should all be $14-$20 cards out of the gate.

BC224 Chris Perez St. Louis Cardinals
Doing well in AA ball. Future closer. 2006 2nd round pick. I feel this guy may be the best value in the set. He is being groomed as the future closer and continues to do well in AAA.

BC250 Will Venable San Diego Padres
Top Padres prospect but already has RC out there.

BC222 Jeremy Papelbon Chicago Cubs
The name helps, plus he is pitching well in A ball

BC239 Josh Papelbon Boston Red Sox
The name helps, but not doing so well in low A ball.

BC247 Eric Patterson Chicago Cubs
5 tool player but not his first RC. Playing well in AAA. Called up to the Cubs to replace Soriano.

BC223 Ryan Adams Baltimore Orioles
Orioles 2nd round pick in 2006. Holding his own in A ball.

BC233 Chris Coghlan Florida Marlins
Moved up to high A after tearing up low A with .324 average. 36th overall pick in 2006.

BC241 Wes Hodges Cleveland Indians
Indians 2nd round pick in 2006. Doing well in A ball with .302 average.

BC242 Emmanuel Burriss San Francisco Giants
Giants 2nd round pick in 2006. Struggling in A ball.

BC232 Trevor Cahill Oakland Athletics
2nd round 19 year old. Holding his own in A ball. Averaging a K per inning.

BC256 Mark Hamilton Saint Louis Cardinals
2006 2nd round pick. Big bat in A ball called up to AA this month.

BC231 Ivan De Jesus Jr. Los Angeles Dodgers Hot Sheet appearance will drive up prices.

Fillers (10)
Not going to go into great detail but each of these guys are having average years and/or are second tier prospects. May get $10 per the first week.

BC255 Chad Rodgers Atlanta Braves
BC225 Jr Towles Houston Astros Not a lot of hype but may be the Astros starting C next year.
BC229 Justin Reed Cincinnati Reds
BC226 Tommy Mendoza Angels
BC235 Peter Bourjos Angels
BC237 Josh Rodriguez Cleveland Indians
BC228 Sergio Perez Houston Astros
BC245 Cesar Nicolas Arizona Diamondbacks
BC242 Chad Reineke Houston Astros
BC252 Paul Estrada Houston Astros
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Old 08-13-2007, 02:02 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Realistically, what could the average of the 20 card prospect lots go for? What about the autographs?
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Old 08-13-2007, 02:24 PM   #48 (permalink)
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I don't have experience with Bowman Chrome in the past, but I did sell the Bowman Chrome prospects in Bowman earlier in the year in 20 count lots. Based on Chrome's checklist and the hype surrounding it, I think that 20 count lots would average about 15 bucks per lot. Of course, that may vary with when they're listed and other variables. I would guess that with the Bowman Chrome lots from Bowman, I averaged close to 40-50 cents per card and this checklist seems to be quite a bit stronger. I think if anything, my estimates are on the conservative side.

As for the autographs, I think that the $10 averages that I've seen are WAY too low. I see $8-10 as a low point, not an average. I'm no expert prospector like some, so I don't know these guys inside and out, but there are some huge names in the auto checklist along with others that will sell well. I think even the worst auto will approach $10 if listed early enough. I think that $25 per auto will be close (and again, I feel that's on the conservative side).
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Old 08-13-2007, 08:53 PM   #49 (permalink)
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What about Joba Chamberlains and Hunter Pence auto's, will these be a good investment for potential flip since they have been called up to the show or no? Seems like quite a few of these autos have already got the players already in the game. Where as last year with Gordon and Upton there was more time for momentium to build on these cards. Curious, again if any of these cards will be good "investments" to hold until say spring of 2008?
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Old 08-13-2007, 09:09 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Well IMO I give that a no and no. My reasoning being that as far a Pence is concerned he already has a rookie auto from 2004 in both Donruss Elite Extra and UD SP Prospects. As for Chamberlain his card will come out of the gate as hot as anybody. He is a pitcher which investment wise is a risk and the one thing that drives up rookie cards (being called up) has already happened. I guess to sum it up the Pence is not an investment and the Chamberlain would have been short term had he not already received the call. I think his card will settle down in price after a while and will only rise again if he becomes a dominant starter in the future or if the Yankees make a playoff run and he factors in it prominently.
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