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Old 08-09-2007, 05:53 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default New high for 2007 Bowman Chrome Cases

Just to give everyone a heads up - 2 Cases sold on Ebay today for $939 Delivered! They are up 27% in the last month.
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Old 08-09-2007, 06:09 PM   #2 (permalink)
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If they get much higher mine are gone! I want to break this so badly, though. I love Chrome and it looks like this will be my last time breaking for a long while because of a major financial change in my life. Someone convince me that a several case break will net me about a $1000 per case. Somebody. Anybody.
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Old 08-09-2007, 06:48 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I promise that you will get that per case. If you don't, I will give you my 5 kids.
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Old 08-09-2007, 07:00 PM   #4 (permalink)
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My projections on 8 cases is to sell appx. $1,125 worth of cards per case or $9,000 total. Depending on what price you got in at and how much time you have to spend sorting I think it is still worth it.

The estimated breakdown of my total Sales is as follows:

Autos 60% or $5,000 in Sales - (average of $53 per auto when you figure in the Refractors and a few big Orange and Gold auto hits with 8 cases of product)

Base Propsects 15% or $1,500 in Sales- I will be doing 20 card lots on the 110 prospects and figure an average of $.60 per card. I may be low here since I think this set is loaded with a lot of guys doing well in the minors that prospectors will go nuts over. Some guy also posted his analysis of the entire checklist on the other boards which caused a huge stir since everyone thinks this will drive up prices on many of the guys you may not of heard of.

Prospect & Base #d Inserts - 15% or $1,500 in Sales - A little worried here if the print runs are high I will get fewer inserts than I'm projecting per box.

Base Sets 10% or $1,000 in Sales - Including the AROD here and figuring $50 for the base chrome sets.

Last edited by jebjeb1; 08-09-2007 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 08-09-2007, 07:00 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Just think Joba parallels... Lincecum parallels... lol
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Old 08-09-2007, 07:11 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Jeb I broke 7 cases last year and never got better than a blue refractor on any of the prospect autos. The only rare auto I got was a Prince Fielder which at the time he wasn't hobby hot like he got this year. So you can't count on any high hits. You would think you would with that many cases but don't count on it. Consider it a bonus if you do.
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Old 08-09-2007, 07:23 PM   #7 (permalink)
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On 8 cases based on last year's odds and an increase in production, I figure you should get 6 Blue Autos, 2 Gold Autos, 1 Orange and a 20% shot at a Red. Agree that you may get more and you may get less but all you can do is project the odds.

My goal is of these 9 hits at least 2 would be one of the stud autos.
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Old 08-09-2007, 07:36 PM   #8 (permalink)
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as usual i'm in it for the long-term so none of this matters much
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Old 08-09-2007, 08:24 PM   #9 (permalink)
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According to my calculations, these are the approx. quantities of each level of auto you should get in 8 cases

Base..............64.09597001
REF (/500)......16.19493908
XFR (/250)......8.097469541
Blue (/150)......4.858481724
Gold (/50).......1.619493908
Orange (/25)...0.809746954
Red (/5)..........0.161949391
Plates (/4).......0.129559513
Super (/1).......0.032389878
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Old 08-09-2007, 08:40 PM   #10 (permalink)
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What does everyone expect the average price for the base autos to be in the 1st 5 days? Would $25 be out of line, considering Joba and Lincecum should be well over $100 each the 1st couple days.

Last edited by danimal; 08-09-2007 at 08:43 PM.
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Old 08-09-2007, 08:42 PM   #11 (permalink)
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ot, since you seem to be the math major here. how about odds for 10 cases.
thanks
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Old 08-09-2007, 08:47 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Just multiply the numbers by 1.25, so

Base 80
REF (/500) 20
XFR (/250) 10
Blue (/150) 6
Gold (/50) 2
Orange (/25) 1
Red (/5) .2
Plates (/4) .16
Super (/1) .04
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Old 08-09-2007, 08:49 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianennis View Post
ot, since you seem to be the math major here. how about odds for 10 cases.
thanks
Just multiply his numbers for 8 cases by 1.25 to get the odds for 10 cases.
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Old 08-09-2007, 08:54 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jebjeb1 View Post
Some guy also posted his analysis of the entire checklist on the other boards which caused a huge stir since everyone thinks this will drive up prices on many of the guys you may not of heard of.
Any chance someone could cut and paste this here? If it's the board I think it is, I was banned, and thus am not able to view the posts.

And no, my ban was not for what you all think. I made a strong argument (irrefutable, actually) that Beckett Hockey didn't actually track any prices, and I got the boot for it. Argue with people and you get a suspension. Criticize their pricing and you get banninated.
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Old 08-09-2007, 09:12 PM   #15 (permalink)
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thanks brad and jug,
should have known that but my brain stopped working about 15 years ago.
thanks again
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Old 08-09-2007, 11:39 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Looks like a great set. Here are the players who look promising in the BC 111-220 set. Sorted by number in the set:

BC111 Mike Carp New York Mets Promising Mets 1B prospect. Only 21 and holding his own in AA with some power.

BC112 Gregory Porter Angels Called up from AA to AAA last month. Already has 6 HRs in 100 AB. Will likely get called up in September.

BC115 Carlos Fisher Cincinnati Reds Part of future rotation with Cueto and Baily. Called up to AA and averaging a K per inning.

BC118 Burke Badenhop Detroit Tigers Has 10 wins in A ball will likely move up to AA any day now.

BC120 Eric Young Jr. Colorado Rockies Future copy of his father. Great speed doing well in high A.

BC121 Henry Rodriguez Oakland Athletics Only 20 and averaging a K per inning in A ball.

BC123 Chris Errecart Milwaukee Brewers Brewers top 1B prospect. Doing well in A ball.

BC124 Brandon Hynick Colorado Rockies May be a better P than #1 pick Reynolds. 12-2 with a 2.22 ERA this year.

BC131 Bryan Byrne Arizona Diamondbacks Hitting .317 at A ball Visalia this year.

BC134 Matt Young Atlanta Braves CF with speed. Called up to AA Mississippi in July. Great OBP.

BC137 Jonathan Van Every Cleveland Indians Called up from AA to AAA this month and batting .303 with HRs in 100 AB!

BC140 Mitch Atkins Chicago Cubs Emerged as one of the Cubs top prospects. Lights out in high A this year.

BC141 Robert Rohrbaugh Seattle Mariners Moving up nicely in the organization from AA to AAA in July.

BC144 Daniel Mayora Colorado Rockies Emerged as power hitting SS. Batting .321 with 12 HRs in A ball.

BC145 Johnny Cueto Cincinnati Reds One of the hottest cards in set. Shot up from A to AA to AAA this year. Will likely be up in September.

BC150 Juan Miranda New York Yankees Should be another hot card (especially as a NYY). Called up to AA in June and hitting .314.

BC156 Tony Butler Seattle Mariners Ms top young arm. Only 19 playing in A ball.

BC160 Joe Gaetti Colorado Rockies Called up from AA to AAA last month. Already has 5 HRs in 130 AB with a .324 average.

BC161 Mark Wagner Boston Red Sox Looks like the future replacement for Varatek. Batting .311 in high A ball.

BC162 Tommy Hanson Atlanta Braves Braves top P prospect. Moved up to high A in July.

BC166 Kala Kaaihue Atlanta Braves Should be one of the hottest cards in the set. 22 HRs this year in high A.

BC174 Cedric Hunter San Diego Padres Pardres top prospect. Only 19, batting .270 in A ball.

BC184 Scott Lewis Cleveland Indians Top P prospect for Cleveland. Holding is own in AA.

BC186 Chorye Spoone Baltimore Orioles One of Baltimore's top P prospects. Doing well in high A.

BC188 Adam Cowart San Francisco Giants One of the Giants top prospects. 11-5 with a 2.58 ERA in A ball.

BC190 Gorkys Hernandez Detroit Tigers Future lead-off hitter for Tigers. Only 19 and doing well in A ball.

BC194 Cole Gillespie Milwaukee Brewers Slow start this year but still one of the Brewers top propsects.

BC195 Brett Anderson Arizona Diamondbacks 2nd round pick in 2006. Pitching lights out in low A. Just called up to high A.

BC173 Chris Cody Detroit Tigers Traded to Milwaukee for Jose Capellan so that should tell you how good he might be.

BC200 Tyler Clippard New York Yankees Not sure why he is in the set with other RCs, but called up to the show in 2007.

BC202 Todd Redmond Pittsburgh Pirates Great debut in A ball last year. Holding his own in AA as 22 year old.

BC210 Chris Carter Chicago White Sox Easy to confuse with future Ariz star 1B and just as good with 22 HRs in A ball.

BC214 Carlos Corporan Milwaukee Brewers Promoted to AA after batting .371 as a C in A ball.

BC220 Jeff Locke Atlanta Braves Averaging a K per inning in A ball.

BC147 Jared Goedert Cleveland Indians Hit .364 in A ball with 16 HRs in 165 ABs. Just called up to high A.

BC196 Joe Mather St. Louis Cardinals Called up to AAA. Good power with 6 HRs.
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Old 08-09-2007, 11:47 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I like seeing these lists of prospect reviews, it not only gives good information but sheds some light on players that might have been somewhat overlooked and will more than likely lead to more bids on 20 count prospect lots!
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Old 08-09-2007, 11:56 PM   #18 (permalink)
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When this list was originally posted on the other boards many people freaked out and demanded the post be banned. The original post had over 1,000 hits so whoever is selling should see some nice bids on their lots. What I have noticed from previous BC and Bow Draft sets is that if some no name guy gets a few bids, other prospectors will think others may know something they don't and bid on the next auction.
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Old 08-10-2007, 12:04 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jebjeb1 View Post
When this list was originally posted on the other boards many people freaked out and demanded the post be banned. The original post had over 1,000 hits so whoever is selling should see some nice bids on their lots. What I have noticed from previous BC and Bow Draft sets is that if some no name guy gets a few bids, other prospectors will think others may know something they don't and bid on the next auction.
Did they end up banning the post or did it stay up?
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Old 08-10-2007, 12:08 AM   #20 (permalink)
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It was demanded by several idiots to be banned but it stayed up. Most people thought it was great info, but some prospectors were upset that someone broke their "code"
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Old 08-10-2007, 12:21 AM   #21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jebjeb1 View Post
It was demanded by several idiots to be banned but it stayed up. Most people thought it was great info, but some prospectors were upset that someone broke their "code"
Just for fun, go there and ask what people think of, say, Justin Edwards.

Watch how the douchebags react. As predictable as could be.

You know what might be funny? We should get Karl to have a new YouTube video "Prospect of the Week" and pick a player that those tools like to buy up and hype that player up.

Hehehehe, the reactions would be CLASSIC.
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Old 08-10-2007, 12:22 AM   #22 (permalink)
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BTW, thanks Jeb. It's not that I really put any stock into what people there have to say about prospects, but I am working on my own spreadsheet for my BoChrome gameplan, and any info is good info. Appreciate it.
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Old 08-10-2007, 12:26 AM   #23 (permalink)
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Some of these prospectors think they are saving the world. Anyone can go do their research and figure out who is doing well. But at the end of the day 99.9% of these guys will likely be out of the majors in 5 years.

A guy over their actually started a really good site but he hasn't updated it in a few months. He has top prospects by organization and then it links to Ebay if you want to buy that players items. I think it called topprospectalert.com
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Old 08-10-2007, 01:01 PM   #24 (permalink)
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i think i am going to put my cases out there. if they sell for $900 a piece thats almost $2000 profit for just relabeling and going to the ups store. seems like a no brainer.
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Old 08-10-2007, 01:06 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Brian:

Logic tells me to do what you plan on doing but my addiction will cause me to open in hopes of landing a superfractor auto!
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