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Old 05-11-2013, 06:40 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by johnorpheus View Post
Yes, because that huge Minneapolis metro area keeps those Buxton autos in demand. I just don't believe this to be true. Look at the highest selling recent base auto out there sans Harper - St. Louis Cardinal Oscar Taveras.
Like I said, those were a few possibilities, I never claimed that they were the definite answers.
And regarding Buxton, he's one of the latest hyped prospects that guys like Miller used to be who the prospectors are going after now.
In a few years from now when/if he makes his debut his prices will rise just a tiny bit and then drop dramatically/significantly (regardless of whether or not he sticks around in the bigs or flames out). I gaurantee it.

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Originally Posted by jmscoggin View Post
I also don't think the market is as big of a deal as you make it out to be. I think it is 100% your first point. Miller was hyped for years and prospectors got bored and moved on, Segura was never hyped and they just haven't bought into the hype yet. I don't think it is any more than that.

Now, for long term value I think your market analysis is spot on. Once the hype dies down from prospectors and they become vets, values are refected based on regional value.
Again. I never said they were the reasons why those two are undervalued, I just said they're possibly the reasons why they're undervalued.
I mean, in the end I'm just saying that their time as prospects are up. They're both major leaguers and productive ones at that, but in this hobby card values hardly ever reflect the results players put up.
Plus from what I've seen the moment a player is no longer a prospect, they're pretty much merged into the vet category and, like you said (or at least I think you said it), from there markets count. A lot.

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A little baseball history: There are more Cardinal fans than most other teams because they were the farthest team out west, so from St. Louis on west is littered with a bevy of Cardinal fans from before the western expansion. Don't misconstrue the market of St. Louis, Missouri for the market of the St. Louis Cardinals (see Oscar Taveras).
Cool story bro.
Having a lot of fans is nice but there are markets out there that are bigger than the one the Cardinals have (i.e. Yankees).
And Tavares is another guy that's hyped and valued highly because he's also a guy that the prospectors and investors are banking on.
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Old 05-11-2013, 06:51 PM   #27 (permalink)
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You don't think it's because Bowman is the first instance we see them and a year from now they'll have autos in 30 products?
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Old 05-11-2013, 06:54 PM   #28 (permalink)
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For one, segura is in a small market in Milwaukee, so I'm not surprised to see his prices this low. Miller I cannot explain. Cards fans are usually pretty rabid, so I would expect prices to jump pretty soon. Another explanation I can think of is that neither of these guys were ever big time prospects. Thus not as many people have ever heard of them until now.
2010 BOWMAN is so jacked up surface wise that it puts a damper on the prices across the board. Sano was OBVIOUSLY the one pick to click as a power hitter that probably could hit 40 this year and be at an age appropriate level (no offense ruf), but people were shy until he blew the F up. Shelby's prices are on the rise...guess I should have taken that $375 pp offer last week on the ebay seller's counter for his orange auto, WHOOOOPPPPS
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Old 05-11-2013, 07:09 PM   #29 (permalink)
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That is the way this works... It absolutely sucks, no lie. People control whether a guy is worth 10-20-50-100-500 dollar autos. That is the scariest part about doing this with large amounts of money. You can not go after guys you like and expect to make money. UNLESS the guy you like is a big name. Personally think the market takes turns wih 1-2 roller coaster guys. Machado is the "Next" Trout, Trout was the "Next" Harper last year. It just keeps going, some others squeak through but for a fraction of the big dogs. Segura is amazing but he is "23" Yrs old which is too old unless you have 40 bomb potential. Or have an insane season throughout or a big 3hr game.

There are definitely flaws in this market.

You can't call it a "flaw" if its how the market works.

The only "flaw" is in your individual interpretation of how markets "should" work.

The reality is that price setting in this market is based on so much more than just player performance.

The way in which prices are set for objects with no inherent value or use does not follow normal logic. However, there is a sort of "abnormal" irrational rationality at works here. You just have to dig a bit deeper to find/understand it.
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Old 05-11-2013, 07:13 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Just doubled!
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Old 05-11-2013, 07:14 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Segura today:

3/4 with a Bomb, 1 RBI, 3 Runs, and 1 SB. He's now batting .346, more Hrs than Albert Pujols, more SBs than Mike Trout. And playing amazing defense.
Tack on another double. Give it until the all star break. If hes still hitting like this people will notice.
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Old 05-11-2013, 07:30 PM   #32 (permalink)
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The way in which prices are set for objects with no inherent value or use does not follow normal logic. However, there is a sort of "abnormal" irrational rationality at works here. You just have to dig a bit deeper to find/understand it.
This looks like something I write when I need to BS a 5pg paper. Thanks for replacing my Flaw term with Abnormality. I thought they meant about the same thing but I guess they are two COMPLETELY different words.
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Old 05-11-2013, 07:53 PM   #33 (permalink)
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This looks like something I write when I need to BS a 5pg paper. Thanks for replacing my Flaw term with Abnormality. I thought they meant about the same thing but I guess they are two COMPLETELY different words.
You're welcome

I really was just saying you are wrong, but I guess I used more words than I needed to.


I mean I just love reading a thread per week filled with people saying how "messed up" this market is because their favorite player's cards aren't worth what they "should" be
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Old 05-11-2013, 07:58 PM   #34 (permalink)
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I don't know, I think people like Oscar because he's really good at playing baseball. Cardinals have a top ten fan base, being my point. It's not as though it's Pittsburgh or something.


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Old 05-11-2013, 08:04 PM   #35 (permalink)
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You're welcome

I really was just saying you are wrong, but I guess I used more words than I needed to.


I mean I just love reading a thread per week filled with people saying how "messed up" this market is because their favorite player's cards aren't worth what they "should" be
I dont have "Favorite" Players. I said the Market was messed up. You said I was wrong, and went on to say exactly what I said using other words lol. That is what my point is, I am not trying to argue. In fact when you said I was wrong, I was looking for the correction but was told what I already knew.
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Old 05-11-2013, 09:41 PM   #36 (permalink)
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THEY BOTH HAVE GIRL NAMES Shelby? Jean? Just kidding! I have no idea, Miller has no excuse being a Cardinal, probably need a feature interview on Sportscenter or something. Or it could be the seemingly ubiquitous success Cardinals starters have, Carpenter, Wainright, Garcia, Lynn. Maybe people subliminally think that pitching for the Cardinals magically wins you games. Segura will have to keep up hitting .330 all year to get any attention in Beertown.
Pitching for the Cardinals does magically win you games when the opponent is the Brewers.
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Old 05-11-2013, 09:51 PM   #37 (permalink)
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The only flaw here is everyone ignored my post. I gave you what the answers are. Matt Harvey for example....people (namely prospectors) still feel there is potential value thus his prices keep rising because prospectors are still buying. They think that because of his last game maybe his next game might be a no hitter. I know this is an extreme example but basically people will pay on potential and that is where prospectors keep the game going. Both of these guys still have potential to go up in price but its a longer time line unless miller tosses a no hitter.

Note prospectors is interchangeable with flippers
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Old 05-11-2013, 10:09 PM   #38 (permalink)
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Simply not true.

To be honest, prospectors are just stupid. No other explanation. They live and die by their own rhetoric, but there's enough of the idiots to create a sustainable market within themselves. Don't mistake that for them being smart; they all just pick and clamor over the same guy so the price is driven up. "But Jabba the Cub has a 2% chance of being the next Adam Dunn!!!!" Yeah, because Adam Dunn's cards are SOOOOO much in demand right now, you guys. "SURE that 22-year-old guy has a 1.32 ERA in the MAJOR LEAGUES, but this high schooler has a 0.00009% chance of having a 1.30 ERA in seven years! Squeeeee!"

Stupidity, plain and simple. They pay four times the amount for could-be stars' cards than that of Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, banking on the idea that they will be the next Albert Pujols or Cal Ripken--the issue being that you can purchase guys who have a legitimate shot at that, like Starlin Castro (who is still just a kid, even though it seems he's not), for next to nothing. Look at a guy like Felix Hernandez as a great example of great never being good enough in this hobby; his stuff goes for lowball prices. What's the percentage that any of these Bowman pitchers in the past three years will match his success in the bigs? Next to none. Very slim. Anyways, just my Bowman rant and how illogical the whole thing is, but they all have a market in their little bubble anyhow, so they will continue to make money on hyperbole.
"make money on hyperbole" would be a killer tat, brah
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Old 05-11-2013, 11:01 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Simply not true.

To be honest, prospectors are just stupid. No other explanation. They live and die by their own rhetoric, but there's enough of the idiots to create a sustainable market within themselves. Don't mistake that for them being smart; they all just pick and clamor over the same guy so the price is driven up. "But Jabba the Cub has a 2% chance of being the next Adam Dunn!!!!" Yeah, because Adam Dunn's cards are SOOOOO much in demand right now, you guys. "SURE that 22-year-old guy has a 1.32 ERA in the MAJOR LEAGUES, but this high schooler has a 0.00009% chance of having a 1.30 ERA in seven years! Squeeeee!"

Stupidity, plain and simple. They pay four times the amount for could-be stars' cards than that of Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, banking on the idea that they will be the next Albert Pujols or Cal Ripken--the issue being that you can purchase guys who have a legitimate shot at that, like Starlin Castro (who is still just a kid, even though it seems he's not), for next to nothing. Look at a guy like Felix Hernandez as a great example of great never being good enough in this hobby; his stuff goes for lowball prices. What's the percentage that any of these Bowman pitchers in the past three years will match his success in the bigs? Next to none. Very slim. Anyways, just my Bowman rant and how illogical the whole thing is, but they all have a market in their little bubble anyhow, so they will continue to make money on hyperbole.
Isn't this the way the american financial system works? Nobody buys google,facebook, etc stock because of logical P/E ratios. It was all about the "what they could earn or what they could be". Same principal applies to prospecting/cards. Nobody wants what they already know. They want what someone could do or be.


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Originally Posted by neema View Post
That is the way this works... It absolutely sucks, no lie. People control whether a guy is worth 10-20-50-100-500 dollar autos. That is the scariest part about doing this with large amounts of money. You can not go after guys you like and expect to make money. UNLESS the guy you like is a big name. Personally think the market takes turns wih 1-2 roller coaster guys. Machado is the "Next" Trout, Trout was the "Next" Harper last year. It just keeps going, some others squeak through but for a fraction of the big dogs. Segura is amazing but he is "23" Yrs old which is too old unless you have 40 bomb potential. Or have an insane season throughout or a big 3hr game.

There are definitely flaws in this market.
A few people do somewhat control the market but they can only control it for so long. I agree with most of your post except the part "You cannot go after guys you like and make money UNLESS the guy you like is a big name". This is absolutely untrue. You can like someone before someone else does and make some serious money. I did it with Vogelbach last year and I'm hoping to do it with someone else who's not very expensive this year.
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Old 05-11-2013, 11:12 PM   #40 (permalink)
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Isn't this the way the american financial system works? Nobody buys google,facebook, etc stock because of logical P/E ratios. It was all about the "what they could earn or what they could be". Same principal applies to prospecting/cards. Nobody wants what they already know. They want what someone could do or be.




A few people do somewhat control the market but they can only control it for so long. I agree with most of your post except the part "You cannot go after guys you like and make money UNLESS the guy you like is a big name". This is absolutely untrue. You can like someone before someone else does and make some serious money. I did it with Vogelbach last year and I'm hoping to do it with someone else who's not very expensive this year.
Google has gone up almost 200% in the last few years, yes people still buy google.
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Old 05-11-2013, 11:28 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Isn't this the way the american financial system works? Nobody buys google,facebook, etc stock because of logical P/E ratios. It was all about the "what they could earn or what they could be". Same principal applies to prospecting/cards. Nobody wants what they already know. They want what someone could do or be.




A few people do somewhat control the market but they can only control it for so long. I agree with most of your post except the part "You cannot go after guys you like and make money UNLESS the guy you like is a big name". This is absolutely untrue. You can like someone before someone else does and make some serious money. I did it with Vogelbach last year and I'm hoping to do it with someone else who's not very expensive this year.
It was geared more towards guys that have already peaked and people buy to think that player can get as expensive as a guy like Oscar/Machado/Xander ETC. It is very easy to buy 50 base autos at 10 a piece and have them jump to 20-30 each and make good money. I should have clarified, or just not have mentioned that lol/
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Old 05-11-2013, 11:32 PM   #42 (permalink)
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"make money on hyperbole" would be a killer tat, brah
Ok.

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Old 05-13-2013, 08:41 PM   #43 (permalink)
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Really nice stats for Segura today so far!
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Old 05-13-2013, 08:49 PM   #44 (permalink)
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Really nice stats for Segura today so far!
Looks like he leads the NL in batting average and stolen bases at the moment. Not a bad start at all.
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:25 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Just glad I drafted him for my fantasy league....especially since Gyorko has been disappointing.
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:26 PM   #46 (permalink)
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I have done well on Segura, bought base at $5 and refractors for $8-$10 in the off season, sold 20 base autos all for $20 each, and am down to my last 7 refractor autos of his. I am a Brewer fan, but greenbacks still rule, when I can make coin and buy other prospects it just keeps the funds rolling. It's all in good fun, and well I do have piles of guys I failed on as well, lol.
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:44 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Segura in the long run is hurt by his size. He averaged 5 homeruns give or take over 6 minor league seasons. Last year in 45 games he had 0 homeruns and hit .258 in the bigs. I would be shocked if he hit 22 homers this year and batted over .320. Shelby Miller barried himself to start the minors last season. Thats when his prices really dropped. Even though he had a great second half and 1 good start in the bigs last year it takes a while to get that bitter taste out of your mouth. You can't base anything in this hobby on logic you have to just go with trends. When you start a business you don't go with what you love you go with what all your customers will love. Trust me I hate it when I want to buy a certain card for my PC and its through the roof because of the hype.

Just my thoughts nothing else

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Old 05-13-2013, 09:52 PM   #48 (permalink)
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For one, segura is in a small market in Milwaukee, so I'm not surprised to see his prices this low. Miller I cannot explain. Cards fans are usually pretty rabid, so I would expect prices to jump pretty soon. Another explanation I can think of is that neither of these guys were ever big time prospects. Thus not as many people have ever heard of them until now.
segura and miller were both at one time high prospects trust me I tried to buy both of them a while back and their cards were 2 expensive. Then they crashed for half a season and everyone bailed.
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:56 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Exactly. The only thing I can think is that is hype was really big in the beginning and it took him a little longer to get it together and get to the bigs. Once you have super hype and then the prospectors get scared off it is very hard to get them back.

As for Segura, that even as a die hard Angels fan he wasn't all that hyped. We would hear about him but he was never expected to do what he is now. I think people think he is overplaying his ability and that he is going to come back to Earth.
Both of these are just brainstorming as I don't really know for sure. Based on what they have done in the bigs so far their prices should definately be higher. Absolutely ridiculous the example with Cole/Miller. One is hyped with no big league skins on the wall and one has been killing the bigs for a good period but the hype is worth more. Go figure.
Thats probably what will happen.
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Old 05-13-2013, 10:01 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Zoop View Post
Simply not true.

To be honest, prospectors are just stupid. No other explanation. They live and die by their own rhetoric, but there's enough of the idiots to create a sustainable market within themselves. Don't mistake that for them being smart; they all just pick and clamor over the same guy so the price is driven up. "But Jabba the Cub has a 2% chance of being the next Adam Dunn!!!!" Yeah, because Adam Dunn's cards are SOOOOO much in demand right now, you guys. "SURE that 22-year-old guy has a 1.32 ERA in the MAJOR LEAGUES, but this high schooler has a 0.00009% chance of having a 1.30 ERA in seven years! Squeeeee!"

Stupidity, plain and simple. They pay four times the amount for could-be stars' cards than that of Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, banking on the idea that they will be the next Albert Pujols or Cal Ripken--the issue being that you can purchase guys who have a legitimate shot at that, like Starlin Castro (who is still just a kid, even though it seems he's not), for next to nothing. Look at a guy like Felix Hernandez as a great example of great never being good enough in this hobby; his stuff goes for lowball prices. What's the percentage that any of these Bowman pitchers in the past three years will match his success in the bigs? Next to none. Very slim. Anyways, just my Bowman rant and how illogical the whole thing is, but they all have a market in their little bubble anyhow, so they will continue to make money on hyperbole.
The reason they are more is just do to the brilliant short printing and serial numbering. Bryce Harpers superfractor auto bowman chrome went for how much lets just say 7k(I really dont know) If there were a Willie Mays Bowman chrome Superfractor rookie card auto I could never see it going less then 50k 100k. Almost say it would be priceless. When I grew up each player had like 3 different cards and they printed millions of each one there for lowering the value.
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