Blowout Cards Forums
Super Break

Go Back   Blowout Cards Forums > BLOWOUTS HOBBY TALK > BASEBALL

BASEBALL Post your Baseball Cards Hobby Talk

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-11-2013, 12:16 PM   #1 (permalink)
Member
 
Thommy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 9,596
Default Why are Jean Segura and Shelby Miller's prices so low?

They are both very young players who had a lot to prove in the majors, however they have both proved themselves very early. YET, they still both sell for less than players who aren't half as good as them. Gerrit COle sells for more than Shelby Miller, even though he plays for a less popular team, has never been in the Majors, and has never even played in the minors at the level that Miller is playing in the majors. Jean Segura is cheaper than Nolan Arenado, even though neither of them were top flight prospects, but Segura has proved that he should have been. He's hitting far better, has obviously already secured a spot on the team, and is miles ahead of Arenado defensively.

I know that prospects go for more than vets (), but these guys aren't too far removed from prospects, yet their prices are still low.
__________________
Vin Scully is a Poet
I Collect The The Sultan of Swag, The King of Dash, The COOLossus of Clout, The Great BamDEEno, Dee Gordon!
My Bucket: http://s1355.photobucket.com/user/Thommy69/library/?sort=3&page=0
Thommy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 12:24 PM   #2 (permalink)
Member
 
jmscoggin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: TX by way of CA
Posts: 10,522
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thommy View Post
They are both very young players who had a lot to prove in the majors, however they have both proved themselves very early. YET, they still both sell for less than players who aren't half as good as them. Gerrit COle sells for more than Shelby Miller, even though he plays for a less popular team, has never been in the Majors, and has never even played in the minors at the level that Miller is playing in the majors. Jean Segura is cheaper than Nolan Arenado, even though neither of them were top flight prospects, but Segura has proved that he should have been. He's hitting far better, has obviously already secured a spot on the team, and is miles ahead of Arenado defensively.

I know that prospects go for more than vets (), but these guys aren't too far removed from prospects, yet their prices are still low.
I've been wondering the same thing but have no answers.
__________________
I think the great philosopher, Ron White, said it best, "I had the right to remain silent but I did not have the ability".
jmscoggin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 12:24 PM   #3 (permalink)
Member
 
tsnider45's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 2,604
Default

I think it has to do with the fact tha both segura and miller were up last year, and did not really impress. It seems in this industry, if you do not come out of the gate on fire, you are forgotten as we move on to the next big thing. If they both continue to play this well, eventually their cards will increase, but I do not think we will see matt harvey type prices on miller.
__________________
http://s1139.photobucket.com/albums/n554/tsnider45/
tsnider45 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 12:27 PM   #4 (permalink)
Member
 
Thommy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 9,596
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tsnider45 View Post
I think it has to do with the fact tha both segura and miller were up last year, and did not really impress. It seems in this industry, if you do not come out of the gate on fire, you are forgotten as we move on to the next big thing. If they both continue to play this well, eventually their cards will increase, but I do not think we will see matt harvey type prices on miller.
Miller was fantastic last year, and though he took a month to aclimate, Segura hit well in September, but I see where you're coming from.
__________________
Vin Scully is a Poet
I Collect The The Sultan of Swag, The King of Dash, The COOLossus of Clout, The Great BamDEEno, Dee Gordon!
My Bucket: http://s1355.photobucket.com/user/Thommy69/library/?sort=3&page=0
Thommy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 12:27 PM   #5 (permalink)
Member
 
njterp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,708
Default

What about miller's time in the bigs and the playoffs last year wasn't impressive? Shut down the reds in that start and pitched great out if the pen
__________________
Go Cardinals! 12 in 15!
I collect Cardinals (Currently focusing on Stan Musial, Adam Wainwright and Kolten Wong)
https://picasaweb.google.com/117475275250062460101/1ModernCards?authuser=0&authkey=Gv1sRgCKeUu97Oq6DC9AE&feat=directlink
njterp is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 12:38 PM   #6 (permalink)
Member
 
jmscoggin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: TX by way of CA
Posts: 10,522
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by njterp View Post
What about miller's time in the bigs and the playoffs last year wasn't impressive? Shut down the reds in that start and pitched great out if the pen
Exactly. The only thing I can think is that is hype was really big in the beginning and it took him a little longer to get it together and get to the bigs. Once you have super hype and then the prospectors get scared off it is very hard to get them back.

As for Segura, that even as a die hard Angels fan he wasn't all that hyped. We would hear about him but he was never expected to do what he is now. I think people think he is overplaying his ability and that he is going to come back to Earth.

Both of these are just brainstorming as I don't really know for sure. Based on what they have done in the bigs so far their prices should definately be higher. Absolutely ridiculous the example with Cole/Miller. One is hyped with no big league skins on the wall and one has been killing the bigs for a good period but the hype is worth more. Go figure.
__________________
I think the great philosopher, Ron White, said it best, "I had the right to remain silent but I did not have the ability".
jmscoggin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 01:04 PM   #7 (permalink)
Member
 
Zoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 6,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tsnider45 View Post
I think it has to do with the fact tha both segura and miller were up last year, and did not really impress. It seems in this industry, if you do not come out of the gate on fire, you are forgotten as we move on to the next big thing. If they both continue to play this well, eventually their cards will increase, but I do not think we will see matt harvey type prices on miller.
Simply not true.

To be honest, prospectors are just stupid. No other explanation. They live and die by their own rhetoric, but there's enough of the idiots to create a sustainable market within themselves. Don't mistake that for them being smart; they all just pick and clamor over the same guy so the price is driven up. "But Jabba the Cub has a 2% chance of being the next Adam Dunn!!!!" Yeah, because Adam Dunn's cards are SOOOOO much in demand right now, you guys. "SURE that 22-year-old guy has a 1.32 ERA in the MAJOR LEAGUES, but this high schooler has a 0.00009% chance of having a 1.30 ERA in seven years! Squeeeee!"

Stupidity, plain and simple. They pay four times the amount for could-be stars' cards than that of Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, banking on the idea that they will be the next Albert Pujols or Cal Ripken--the issue being that you can purchase guys who have a legitimate shot at that, like Starlin Castro (who is still just a kid, even though it seems he's not), for next to nothing. Look at a guy like Felix Hernandez as a great example of great never being good enough in this hobby; his stuff goes for lowball prices. What's the percentage that any of these Bowman pitchers in the past three years will match his success in the bigs? Next to none. Very slim. Anyways, just my Bowman rant and how illogical the whole thing is, but they all have a market in their little bubble anyhow, so they will continue to make money on hyperbole.
__________________
Lifelong St. Louis Cardinals fan. Lifelong Seattle Seahawks fan. John Smoltz collector. Garbage Pail Kids expert.
Fighting hyperbole with logic. 99% accuracy in correctitude.
Twitter: ZoopSoul
Zoop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 01:09 PM   #8 (permalink)
Member
 
jmscoggin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: TX by way of CA
Posts: 10,522
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoop View Post
Simply not true.

To be honest, prospectors are just stupid. No other explanation. They live and die by their own rhetoric, but there's enough of the idiots to create a sustainable market within themselves. Don't mistake that for them being smart; they all just pick and clamor over the same guy so the price is driven up. "But Jabba the Cub has a 2% chance of being the next Adam Dunn!!!!" Yeah, because Adam Dunn's cards are SOOOOO much in demand right now, you guys. "SURE that 22-year-old guy has a 1.32 ERA in the MAJOR LEAGUES, but this high schooler has a 0.00009% chance of having a 1.30 ERA in seven years! Squeeeee!"

Stupidity, plain and simple. They pay four times the amount for could-be stars' cards than that of Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, banking on the idea that they will be the next Albert Pujols or Cal Ripken--the issue being that you can purchase guys who have a legitimate shot at that, like Starlin Castro (who is still just a kid, even though it seems he's not), for next to nothing. Look at a guy like Felix Hernandez as a great example of great never being good enough in this hobby; his stuff goes for lowball prices. What's the percentage that any of these Bowman pitchers in the past three years will match his success in the bigs? Next to none. Very slim. Anyways, just my Bowman rant and how illogical the whole thing is, but they all have a market in their little bubble anyhow, so they will continue to make money on hyperbole.
Sounds all doom and gloomy but I am not able to disagree with a single point. I really don't get it either to what people hype and don't. Logic really doesn't enter into it in most cases but that is human nature. Why does one fad catch on and another doesn't?
__________________
I think the great philosopher, Ron White, said it best, "I had the right to remain silent but I did not have the ability".
jmscoggin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 01:13 PM   #9 (permalink)
Member
 
Giancarlo27's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Bates College, Lewiston, ME
Posts: 8,132
Default

For one, segura is in a small market in Milwaukee, so I'm not surprised to see his prices this low. Miller I cannot explain. Cards fans are usually pretty rabid, so I would expect prices to jump pretty soon. Another explanation I can think of is that neither of these guys were ever big time prospects. Thus not as many people have ever heard of them until now.
__________________
Collecting: Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Harvey, Rob Kaminsky
Giancarlo27 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 01:17 PM   #10 (permalink)
Member
 
jmscoggin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: TX by way of CA
Posts: 10,522
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Giancarlo27 View Post
For one, segura is in a small market in Milwaukee, so I'm not surprised to see his prices this low. Miller I cannot explain. Cards fans are usually pretty rabid, so I would expect prices to jump pretty soon. Another explanation I can think of is that neither of these guys were ever big time prospects. Thus not as many people have ever heard of them until now.
Not true on Miller. He was ranked pretty highly and hyped because of it. Segura wasn't and the small market definately doesn't help him.
__________________
I think the great philosopher, Ron White, said it best, "I had the right to remain silent but I did not have the ability".
jmscoggin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 01:34 PM   #11 (permalink)
Member
 
johnorpheus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,093
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Giancarlo27 View Post
For one, segura is in a small market in Milwaukee, so I'm not surprised to see his prices this low. Miller I cannot explain. Cards fans are usually pretty rabid, so I would expect prices to jump pretty soon. Another explanation I can think of is that neither of these guys were ever big time prospects. Thus not as many people have ever heard of them until now.
Miller has been a huge prospect ever since he was drafted.

For me, it's just prospect fatigue. Miller has been around the top-10 of prospect lists for the past three years. Everyone's heard of him, everyone seems to have gotten bored of him. Why buy Miller when you can buy the raw Taijun "he walks everyone in the park" Walker who might find control and command and become the next whoever or Gerrit Cole, who is older than Miller and can't put up Miller #'s at double-A but has 100 mph gas?

People love upside and once in a lifetime potential over a high floor, still potentially great major leaguer. Look at Bubba Starling. His base autos were seling for like $80 out of the gate even though he was a football player trying to play baseball (but what if he puts all those shinny tools together?!!!!).
__________________
Oscar Taveras
johnorpheus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 05:20 PM   #12 (permalink)
Member
 
tjforce's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 186
Default

Segura with another Home Run. If he keeps this up until the all star break he might starting the all star game. I imagine his prices will come along nicely by then.
__________________
Ozzie Canseco Super Collector!!!
tjforce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 05:33 PM   #13 (permalink)
Member
 
Thommy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 9,596
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tjforce View Post
Segura with another Home Run. If he keeps this up until the all star break he might starting the all star game. I imagine his prices will come along nicely by then.
I sure hope so
__________________
Vin Scully is a Poet
I Collect The The Sultan of Swag, The King of Dash, The COOLossus of Clout, The Great BamDEEno, Dee Gordon!
My Bucket: http://s1355.photobucket.com/user/Thommy69/library/?sort=3&page=0
Thommy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 05:38 PM   #14 (permalink)
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 2,499
Default

THEY BOTH HAVE GIRL NAMES Shelby? Jean? Just kidding! I have no idea, Miller has no excuse being a Cardinal, probably need a feature interview on Sportscenter or something. Or it could be the seemingly ubiquitous success Cardinals starters have, Carpenter, Wainright, Garcia, Lynn. Maybe people subliminally think that pitching for the Cardinals magically wins you games. Segura will have to keep up hitting .330 all year to get any attention in Beertown.
danimal875 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 05:38 PM   #15 (permalink)
Member
 
jauncer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Lancaster, PA
Posts: 355
Default

I dont think people realize that without a national hype train 99% of all card sales are prospectors, flippers or whatever you want to call them. People are making purchases based on potential resale not for their pc....except that one percent. So if prospectors arent interested then its hard to get prices to go up quickly. Now if they perform that way all season and that propels a playoff run....then prices will rise But only because prospectors see a chance for a return.
__________________
Looking for any Cameron Gallagher cards serial numbered
jauncer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 06:18 PM   #16 (permalink)
Member
 
Thommy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 9,596
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by danimal875 View Post
THEY BOTH HAVE GIRL NAMES Shelby? Jean? Just kidding! I have no idea, Miller has no excuse being a Cardinal, probably need a feature interview on Sportscenter or something. Or it could be the seemingly ubiquitous success Cardinals starters have, Carpenter, Wainright, Garcia, Lynn. Maybe people subliminally think that pitching for the Cardinals magically wins you games. Segura will have to keep up hitting .330 all year to get any attention in Beertown.
So what kind of name is Byron ?
__________________
Vin Scully is a Poet
I Collect The The Sultan of Swag, The King of Dash, The COOLossus of Clout, The Great BamDEEno, Dee Gordon!
My Bucket: http://s1355.photobucket.com/user/Thommy69/library/?sort=3&page=0
Thommy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 06:28 PM   #17 (permalink)
Member
 
Ziveus101's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: The Empire State
Posts: 2,510
Default

A few possibilities might be:
*Their time as prospects have ended
In the card world, Potential>Production when determining value. Prospectors have already moved onto the next batch of prospects.
The fact that extremely talented players are undervalued in the baseball card world is nothing new (see King Felix, Tulowitzki etc...) and these two are the latest to join the club.

*They play for medium markets
Milwaukee and St. Louis aren't exactly small markets, but they can't compete with those in New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles.
So THAT is why Miller will never be as expensive as Harvey.

*Location
The only place on earth that would potentially value Segura cards higher than book value is Milwaukee.
The only place on earth that would potentially value Miller cards higher than book value is St. Louis.
Every other location would consider them worth far less than book-value and that includes the internet.
__________________
Pandemonium Doesn't Reign Around Here, It Pours
Ziveus101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 06:46 PM   #18 (permalink)
Member
 
johnorpheus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,093
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziveus101 View Post

*They play for medium markets
Milwaukee and St. Louis aren't exactly small markets, but they can't compete with those in New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles.
So THAT is why Miller will never be as expensive as Harvey.

*Location
The only place on earth that would potentially value Segura cards higher than book value is Milwaukee.
The only place on earth that would potentially value Miller cards higher than book value is St. Louis.
Every other location would consider them worth far less than book-value and that includes the internet.
Yes, because that huge Minneapolis metro area keeps those Buxton autos in demand. I just don't believe this to be true. Look at the highest selling recent base auto out there sans Harper - St. Louis Cardinal Oscar Taveras.
__________________
Oscar Taveras
johnorpheus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 06:49 PM   #19 (permalink)
Member
 
Thommy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 9,596
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnorpheus View Post
Yes, because that huge Minneapolis metro area keeps those Buxton autos in demand. I just don't believe this to be true. Look at the highest selling recent base auto out there sans Harper - St. Louis Cardinal Oscar Taveras.
Or Trout or Posey or Buxton
__________________
Vin Scully is a Poet
I Collect The The Sultan of Swag, The King of Dash, The COOLossus of Clout, The Great BamDEEno, Dee Gordon!
My Bucket: http://s1355.photobucket.com/user/Thommy69/library/?sort=3&page=0
Thommy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 06:50 PM   #20 (permalink)
Member
 
jmscoggin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: TX by way of CA
Posts: 10,522
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziveus101 View Post
A few possibilities might be:
*Their time as prospects have ended
In the card world, Potential>Production when determining value. Prospectors have already moved onto the next batch of prospects.
The fact that extremely talented players are undervalued in the baseball card world is nothing new (see King Felix, Tulowitzki etc...) and these two are the latest to join the club.

*They play for medium markets
Milwaukee and St. Louis aren't exactly small markets, but they can't compete with those in New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles.
So THAT is why Miller will never be as expensive as Harvey.

*Location
The only place on earth that would potentially value Segura cards higher than book value is Milwaukee.
The only place on earth that would potentially value Miller cards higher than book value is St. Louis.
Every other location would consider them worth far less than book-value and that includes the internet.
I also don't think the market is as big of a deal as you make it out to be. I think it is 100% your first point. Miller was hyped for years and prospectors got bored and moved on, Segura was never hyped and they just haven't bought into the hype yet. I don't think it is any more than that.

Now, for long term value I think your market analysis is spot on. Once the hype dies down from prospectors and they become vets, values are refected based on regional value.
__________________
I think the great philosopher, Ron White, said it best, "I had the right to remain silent but I did not have the ability".
jmscoggin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 06:54 PM   #21 (permalink)
Member
 
johnorpheus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,093
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thommy View Post
Or Trout or Posey or Buxton
Noted, but I was referring to recent prospect autos. ie. last couple years. I know Trout, Posey, etc. are going for more. Regarding Buxton, give it a few weeks before his value stabilizes and we'll see.
__________________
Oscar Taveras

Last edited by johnorpheus; 05-11-2013 at 06:56 PM.
johnorpheus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 07:10 PM   #22 (permalink)
Member
 
Zoop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 6,676
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziveus101 View Post
A few possibilities might be:
*Their time as prospects have ended
In the card world, Potential>Production when determining value. Prospectors have already moved onto the next batch of prospects.
The fact that extremely talented players are undervalued in the baseball card world is nothing new (see King Felix, Tulowitzki etc...) and these two are the latest to join the club.

*They play for medium markets
Milwaukee and St. Louis aren't exactly small markets, but they can't compete with those in New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles.
So THAT is why Miller will never be as expensive as Harvey.


*Location
The only place on earth that would potentially value Segura cards higher than book value is Milwaukee.
The only place on earth that would potentially value Miller cards higher than book value is St. Louis.
Every other location would consider them worth far less than book-value and that includes the internet.
A little baseball history: There are more Cardinal fans than most other teams because they were the farthest team out west, so from St. Louis on west is littered with a bevy of Cardinal fans from before the western expansion. Don't misconstrue the market of St. Louis, Missouri for the market of the St. Louis Cardinals (see Oscar Taveras).
__________________
Lifelong St. Louis Cardinals fan. Lifelong Seattle Seahawks fan. John Smoltz collector. Garbage Pail Kids expert.
Fighting hyperbole with logic. 99% accuracy in correctitude.
Twitter: ZoopSoul
Zoop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 07:21 PM   #23 (permalink)
Member
 
neema's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,418
Default

That is the way this works... It absolutely sucks, no lie. People control whether a guy is worth 10-20-50-100-500 dollar autos. That is the scariest part about doing this with large amounts of money. You can not go after guys you like and expect to make money. UNLESS the guy you like is a big name. Personally think the market takes turns wih 1-2 roller coaster guys. Machado is the "Next" Trout, Trout was the "Next" Harper last year. It just keeps going, some others squeak through but for a fraction of the big dogs. Segura is amazing but he is "23" Yrs old which is too old unless you have 40 bomb potential. Or have an insane season throughout or a big 3hr game.

There are definitely flaws in this market.
__________________
I don't even know.
neema is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 07:29 PM   #24 (permalink)
Member
 
Thommy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 9,596
Default

Segura today:

3/4 with a Bomb, 1 RBI, 3 Runs, and 1 SB. He's now batting .346, more Hrs than Albert Pujols, more SBs than Mike Trout. And playing amazing defense.
__________________
Vin Scully is a Poet
I Collect The The Sultan of Swag, The King of Dash, The COOLossus of Clout, The Great BamDEEno, Dee Gordon!
My Bucket: http://s1355.photobucket.com/user/Thommy69/library/?sort=3&page=0
Thommy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2013, 07:32 PM   #25 (permalink)
Member
 
neema's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,418
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thommy View Post
Segura today:

3/4 with a Bomb, 1 RBI, 3 Runs, and 1 SB. He's now batting .346, more Hrs than Albert Pujols, more SBs than Mike Trout. And playing amazing defense.
That is why he went from 4 dollar autos to 15-20. It will take another 30 games like that until base autos hit 40.
__________________
I don't even know.
neema is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:48 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Friendly URLs by vBSEO
Copyright 2013, Blowout Cards Inc.